tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7316045753178173466..comments2024-03-29T10:31:21.056+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Boost for SNP as post-locals YouGov subsample fails to find a Scottish Tory surgeJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69256969602668491252017-05-11T19:22:24.456+01:002017-05-11T19:22:24.456+01:00Actually, I don't think the Tories will have m...Actually, I don't think the Tories will have many more votes to gain than they got in the council elections. Constantly backed by the media for a year, and mounting a huge anti-indy2 campaign, almost all the first-preference votes they gained were clearly, from the gain/loss percentages, direct switches from Labour and the Lib Dems, while the SNP percentage of first preference votes stayed the same as in 2012. Such was the promise of a 'revival', almost all those with a Tory mindset would have been motivated to trot along to vote for them, and in addition there was a terrific effort to corral all unionists. In respect of those who, despite the publicity, didn't switch to them in the council elections, I doubt that there are many more who can be convinced to do so in the General Election. And at its core, the party in Scotland is in a losing battle against the age-profile of its membership and supporters, which is skewed towards the elderly. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83725577312733473822017-05-11T18:48:58.859+01:002017-05-11T18:48:58.859+01:00However ... I used to reckon that the Lib Dems and...However ... I used to reckon that the Lib Dems and Labour wouldn't countenance forming a coalition with the Tories if, combined, they had more MSPs than the SNP. Now I'm not so sure. We've reached the point where the unionists will do anything to block independence. This was always going to arise, the closer we got to achieving it. So we grind them down, vote by vote, year by year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20418755384436805062017-05-11T15:44:41.395+01:002017-05-11T15:44:41.395+01:00Even if the tories won most of the seats RD will n...Even if the tories won most of the seats RD will not be in charge of Scotland. We've already had the Holyrood elections and she's in opposition even though she thinks she's in charge. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29706423346477870272017-05-11T15:10:06.492+01:002017-05-11T15:10:06.492+01:00We will have to see if this election is like 2010 ...We will have to see if this election is like 2010 where there was an anti-Tory swing in the last 2 weeks of that General Election. Labour were then perceived as the main anti-Tory party but it will be the SNP this time.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29461072544344011682017-05-11T13:53:51.591+01:002017-05-11T13:53:51.591+01:00pheww ! The thought of Ruth Davidson in charge of ...pheww ! The thought of Ruth Davidson in charge of Scotland was giving me night terrors !I will carry on looking to you for factual and balanced reporting on the polls.Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37758779844907906252017-05-11T13:37:11.247+01:002017-05-11T13:37:11.247+01:00You're looking at a different poll.You're looking at a different poll.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9654606897715029092017-05-11T13:17:13.308+01:002017-05-11T13:17:13.308+01:00I read it as the Tories on 22% with 10% don't ...I read it as the Tories on 22% with 10% don't knows. Have you added another 4% onto the Tory vote to get 100%. I had the SNP on 40% on the flat figures with don't knows. Not sure what the differentials are on eliminating the don't knows.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com