tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7289443294833229408..comments2024-03-28T13:00:53.517+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: What if the 40% rule was applied to this referendum?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17208006235510981592014-09-01T17:42:55.211+01:002014-09-01T17:42:55.211+01:00Thanks Simon. I agree about the desirability of a ...Thanks Simon. I agree about the desirability of a significant winning margin, even if the 50 +1 should be legitimate.<br />I note that on an 80% turnout of a 4,300,000 electorate, means either side needs to get 1,720,000 votes. That's very close to the 1,775,000 who voted Yes to the main question on the 1997 devolution referendum. With a smaller electorate and turnout that represented 74% of the vote then but I find the number retrospectively reassuring, even though it was a vote for devolution not independence. <br /> Ian Bairdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62834501230518136142014-09-01T12:36:40.422+01:002014-09-01T12:36:40.422+01:00Exceptional article!
The threshold argument is an...Exceptional article!<br /><br />The threshold argument is an interesting one. Of course, there can be absolutely no argument for ignoring the will of 50%+ of the population, but none of us want the long term future of our countries to be decided on barely 50% of a low turnout.<br /><br />Thankfully, everything points to a very high turnout. This goes someway towards legitimising the barest of majorities, but I would still hope that whichever side wins does so with a 55%+ share. Anything between 45% and 55% just feels like a bit of a "don't know" conclusion and suggests that the arguments haven't been properly made or accepted. If no wins by 51% to 49%, we will all be arguing that there should be another vote within ten years (or sooner, if the Tories try to take us out of Europe before then), and a yes win by that same margin wouldn't feel as good as a thumping win.<br /><br />None of that is to say that a Yes win by one vote shouldn't be considered legitimate or that there would be any justification for the margin of victory to be a factor in any negotiations, just that such a historic moment feels like it should be more emphatic!Simonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81333455753816622982014-08-31T19:39:09.199+01:002014-08-31T19:39:09.199+01:00Thanks, Teri. The last Panelbase poll closed on a...Thanks, Teri. The last Panelbase poll closed on a Friday and we had the results by the Saturday evening, so I doubt if that's the explanation.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55490754648251775712014-08-31T19:24:19.051+01:002014-08-31T19:24:19.051+01:00Panelbase Poll was open till Friday 29 August, so ...Panelbase Poll was open till Friday 29 August, so could be that all the data was not complete fro today and may appear next Sunday.Terinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10648797336942244142014-08-31T11:37:54.515+01:002014-08-31T11:37:54.515+01:00Thanks Flockers. Yes, Cameron will really be betwe...Thanks Flockers. Yes, Cameron will really be between a rock and a hard place whatever the result. The baying Euro-sceptics and an imminent Westminster election don't leave much room for being nice to the Scots.<br />In the event of a Yes vote, it seems to me that given the way the campaign has evolved, the prospect of a rational post-referendum negotiation has dimininished. When I question whether the result will be accepted, I simply mean that the degree of resentment will be so high that making the arrangements for separation will be more like an acrimonious divorce than an amicable split.Ian Bairdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80421333348352113792014-08-30T23:27:46.425+01:002014-08-30T23:27:46.425+01:00No polls tomorrow, it seems?
Best,
XabiNo polls tomorrow, it seems?<br /><br />Best, <br /><br />XabiAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88534638249258027662014-08-30T21:23:33.860+01:002014-08-30T21:23:33.860+01:00Ian, Cameron would run the "statesman" d...Ian, Cameron would run the "statesman" defence - a yes vote justifies the referendum, anyone who argues to the contrary is undemocratic. The danger for him lies on his own party rather than other parties. Labour and the Lib Dems can hardly criticise him, given their support for the referendum and complicity on the poor campaign. But there is no shortage of unionist backbench Tories who dislike Cameron intensely and who will want to use this as an opportunity to damage him. Whether the imminent general election keeps them in check is the question. Similarly there are plenty in the media who, post Leveson, will leap at the chance to try to scalp Cameron. Whether the prospect of prime minister Miliband keeps them on check is the question. Still, there's a way to go before yes wins...Flockersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91616846289646953392014-08-30T21:04:09.167+01:002014-08-30T21:04:09.167+01:00Cheers James did wonder.Cheers James did wonder.cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30359401326188951072014-08-30T20:57:54.783+01:002014-08-30T20:57:54.783+01:00IGNORE any tweets about a poll in the Express. It...IGNORE any tweets about a poll in the Express. It's an ancient article from years ago that keeps getting dredged up.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83147253149802732812014-08-30T20:45:03.581+01:002014-08-30T20:45:03.581+01:00I saw a comment earlier about an Express poll 51% ...I saw a comment earlier about an Express poll 51% Yes!<br /><br />Yes has only to win by 1 vote especially with the blatant lies peddled by the BritNats aided and abetted by the MSM.<br /><br /> <a href="https://twitter.com/Camz99/status/505747388393586689" rel="nofollow">So 50% +1 is all we need to win.</a> cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76165044675204567872014-08-30T19:27:05.345+01:002014-08-30T19:27:05.345+01:00Thanks for comments on my article. I am reassured ...Thanks for comments on my article. I am reassured (I think - gulp) by those who are convinced by UK Gov/Cameron's commitment to honour the outcome if Yes.<br />The concept of buyer's remorse is intriguing but I am more concerned about seller's remorse (the feeling you get when the item you sold went so quickly you wished you'd asked for a fiver more). Can you imagine the backlash against Cameron (yes, specifically Cameron because he signed the Edinburgh Agreement) in the event of a Yes vote? And in those circumstances does no-one think that it makes a difference whether the vote is 50% + 1 or 60% when it comes to post-referendum negotiations? Ian Bairdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6297804033958015942014-08-30T18:31:18.268+01:002014-08-30T18:31:18.268+01:00Buyer's remorse? I just heard from someone wh...Buyer's remorse? I just heard from someone who has voted No because he believes Scotland will be granted Devo-Max in the event of a No vote, and that the "three main parties" can't possibly be lying about that.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22911814544238579742014-08-30T18:27:43.947+01:002014-08-30T18:27:43.947+01:00I'm not necessarily expecting any further prog...I'm not necessarily expecting any further progress for Yes in these polls. YouGov had them on an all-time high in the last poll, and although Panelbase only had them on a joint high, that may have been pound-for-pound the best PB poll for Yes given the recent methodological change. So if anything this situation is ripe for a slight reversion to the mean, which doubtless the No campaign would attempt to crow about.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35368582815252177052014-08-30T18:22:35.565+01:002014-08-30T18:22:35.565+01:00I'd be very surprised if Panelbase doesn't...I'd be very surprised if Panelbase doesn't show either a tie or a Yes lead. No inside info - just my instinct...EdinburghPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02607333526580186251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32667070605693159232014-08-30T18:17:18.140+01:002014-08-30T18:17:18.140+01:00Might be better if there are two polls, because we...Might be better if there are two polls, because we don't want to put all our eggs in one basket.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5440506879739287282014-08-30T18:06:41.353+01:002014-08-30T18:06:41.353+01:00There's no real normal for them because the cl...There's no real normal for them because the client varies.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56461154956552462262014-08-30T18:05:00.455+01:002014-08-30T18:05:00.455+01:00James - doesn't Yougov normally appear on a Mo...James - doesn't Yougov normally appear on a Monday?EdinburghPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02607333526580186251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57666961634078166982014-08-30T18:01:31.154+01:002014-08-30T18:01:31.154+01:00The time of the evening when the hints start varie...The time of the evening when the hints start varies considerably. There have certainly been YouGov and Panelbase polls in the field this week, so I would expect both tonight, unless one or both are internal polls not intended for publication.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31720124435753100362014-08-30T17:59:22.962+01:002014-08-30T17:59:22.962+01:00Surprised we haven't had any whispers about ne...Surprised we haven't had any whispers about new polls in Sunday papers.<br /><br />Normally the campaign staffers are tweeting in anticipation.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10678903759314268561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85759212202762431452014-08-30T17:48:53.167+01:002014-08-30T17:48:53.167+01:00If the UK government acts tough after a Yes vote, ...If the UK government acts tough after a Yes vote, i propise the matter is settled with an egg poaching challenge.<br />The one with a half cooked egg loses.Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39880393334209742202014-08-30T16:58:46.216+01:002014-08-30T16:58:46.216+01:00Denise, possibly, but they would have been restrai...Denise, possibly, but they would have been restrained to a significant degree by their electoral accountability in Scotland. I think in fact Westminster would not have wanted to negotiate on that basis because it would have succeeded in alienating Scots (who would have the SNP telling them that the other parties were being beastly) and the English (who would have UKIP and Tory malcontents saying they have been soft). <br /><br />The same challenge awaits in the event of a yes vote, of course. But it's a little less acute.Flockersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32028329348458773472014-08-30T16:58:38.332+01:002014-08-30T16:58:38.332+01:00@Flockers:
"In that situation, there may be a...@Flockers:<br />"In that situation, there may be a strong element of buyers' remorse. Clearly the hardcore supporters of independence per se will stay loyal and still want to push it through, but some - possibly many - of those who have been persuaded by the arguments over the last few months will feel differently. A movement could emerge within Scotland to postpone or even to cancel independence. A unionist dominated Holyrood could, reflecting the will of the people, could seek Westminster's agreement to that effect. It would be hard to see Westminster refusing."<br /><br />I agree with the gist of this. One of the assertions from Better Together which is never questioned is the idea that "a Yes vote is forever". I've always thought it would be far easier to reverse a Yes vote than a No one. The UK Government is campaigning to keep hold of us now, so if we voted Yes and then changed our minds and asked to rejoin the Union, they're hardly going to say no!keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59503748914138394602014-08-30T16:46:45.881+01:002014-08-30T16:46:45.881+01:00It would have been impossible to have an enabling ...It would have been impossible to have an enabling referendum. The UK government would just make the terms so bad that no one would vote to leave. There is no way they would have been reasonable or negotiate in good faith.Denisenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43194382184608493132014-08-30T16:14:11.275+01:002014-08-30T16:14:11.275+01:00Thanks for an interesting article Ian. I agree wit...Thanks for an interesting article Ian. I agree with James that any form of threshold would have been outrageous and I am glad none were seriously proposed. I also agree with James that there is no way back from Cameron's commitment - if the answer is yes, the UK Government will not prevent Scotland from becoming independent.<br /><br />It does however raise an interesting hypothetical question. The Yes campaign has made a number of bold assertions during the campaign, for example on currency, EU membership, the division of UK assets, public finances and oil production. Some, all or none of these may come to pass, and it is possible (I am not saying likely) that Scotland enters 2016 facing a future in which it is outside the EU (at least for a period of time), transitioning to a new and unproven currency or using sterling without a currency union, having seen financial institutions and other businesses relocate south of the border and with oil and personal tax revenues well below the targets on which public spending targets have been predicated and on which they depend. Or a combination of some of the above.<br /><br />(Of course the reverse may be true we may have a currency union, Scotland remaining in the EU, an oil boom etc, but stay with me).<br /><br />In that situation, there may be a strong element of buyers' remorse. Clearly the hardcore supporters of independence per se will stay loyal and still want to push it through, but some - possibly many - of those who have been persuaded by the arguments over the last few months will feel differently. A movement could emerge within Scotland to postpone or even to cancel independence. A unionist dominated Holyrood could, reflecting the will of the people, could seek Westminster's agreement to that effect. It would be hard to see Westminster refusing.<br /><br />The above hypothetical demonstrates the heart of the problem; it's not clear what exactly Scots are being asked to vote for, except the right to run their own affairs. There are uncertainties in a "no" vote of course, the no campaign having bewilderingly failed to articulate what enhanced powers will be handed to Scotland in the event of a no. And the future is inherently uncertain. But nonetheless it is uncomfortable that people are asked a question to which the only sensible answer can be "that depends".<br /><br />Sadly, there is no alternative (and in any event it is too late to do anything about it now). One option would have been to have an enabling referendum, to authorise the Scottish government to negotiate the terms of departure with Westminster, and then to have a final vote once the terms of departure were known. However this might have led to Westminster acting unreasonably in negotiations, to encourage rejection at the final stage (which may have had the opposite result!).<br /><br />If it is a "yes" I hope and expect Westminster will abide by the Edinburgh principles. It is ultimately not in rUK's interests to render Scotland weak. But personalities will play an important part...Flockersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9253513802122723132014-08-30T16:01:26.179+01:002014-08-30T16:01:26.179+01:00I'm pretty sure Cameron has stated that even t...I'm pretty sure Cameron has stated that even the slenderest of majorities would be enough.Sunshine on Crieffnoreply@blogger.com