tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7170181211862706808..comments2024-03-28T08:33:14.353+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: New ComRes poll shows swing to independence in the Borders and Dumfries & GallowayJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19032649899005793832014-06-18T11:06:36.480+01:002014-06-18T11:06:36.480+01:00The reason it is repeatedly "billed" as ...The reason it is repeatedly "billed" as a "South of Scotland" poll despite not conforming to the boundaries of the South of Scotland Scottish Parliament region is because it was commissioned for a television programme for Scottish viewers of ITV Border (which covers Cumbria, Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish Borders).<br /><br />The problem ITV Border has it that Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish Borders are two very distinct areas with very distinct identities (neither region likes to be confused with each other despite our similarities), so what binds both areas together so that they can be summarised more succinctly than the Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway? <br /><br />The two regions are the most southerly in Scotland, with no exceptions, and therefore are often referred to as the 'South of Scotland'.<br /><br />I hope this clarifies, if you are puzzled further I would prescribe a viewing of 'Representing Border' (which looks at the issues from Holyrood and Westminster that matter to the South of Scotland), every single edition made is online to view at leisure and they provide a very balanced view of things, http://www.itv.com/news/border/topic/representing-border/ Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89315563457350470472014-06-18T11:05:18.607+01:002014-06-18T11:05:18.607+01:00The tactic I can see is Better Together No Thanks ...The tactic I can see is Better Together No Thanks are abandoning those areas that are very pro-indy and concentrating on conflating the areas that are pro-union. For instance make a big deal that the 'South of Scotland' is pro-union (regardless of population or sample size) to advertise to the rest of Scotland that the trend is moving in the unionists favour.<br /><br />False advertising basically, but they try to back it with half-truth figures.<br /><br />No doubt we will see headlines of 'South Scotland backs the union' by the compliant media, but of course that is the point, generate big headlines. This is not to reflect public opinion but to try and change it, so we know their campaign must be failing.Dcanmorenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36544268716702216102014-06-18T07:25:03.757+01:002014-06-18T07:25:03.757+01:00Sorry, to clarify...
We're just over 90 days ...Sorry, to clarify...<br /><br />We're just over 90 days from the referendum (t-91). <br /><br />At this stage in 2011, pollsters were still concluding a stonking win for labour. Yougov got the above 41 Lab / 32 SNP 69 days out for example. Their next poll at t-45 still had Labour ahead. <br /><br />Of course they were not alone in this. It was only by ~36 days out that an SNP win started to show up as possible / level pegging was starting to occur. <br /><br />Only really 10 days out did it look like it could potentially turn into a very big win for the SNP.<br /><br />Doesn't mean this will happen again, but there's a lot of signs it might. Everything bar Y/N points to a Yes. Was similar in 2011; lots of evidence that the the SNP should have been ahead yet for some reason labour were...Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5045357340504089142014-06-18T04:14:41.821+01:002014-06-18T04:14:41.821+01:00I wasn't in any way talking down the Borders a...I wasn't in any way talking down the Borders and D&G - the 5% thing is simply a hard-headed statistical point, and I was also emphasising that the area covered by this poll accounts for less than half the population of the South of Scotland electoral region (in spite of the poll being repeatedly billed as a "south of Scotland poll").<br /><br />I have a horrible feeling that it's only a matter of time before someone says I'm being sexist or anti-English for pointing out that women and English-born people are being over-represented in certain polls, but again, that's simply a statistical observation.<br /><br />I'm not writing off the Yes campaign's chances of making substantial progress in the Borders and D&G, and your suggestion of how to do that is a good one. But "progress" is what it will be - realistically the Yes vote is bound to be at least somewhat lower than the national average.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63752011240666363482014-06-18T00:24:18.653+01:002014-06-18T00:24:18.653+01:00Two things.
If you're going to compare this p...Two things.<br /><br />If you're going to compare this poll with the 1997 referendum the "most anti-independence part of the country" would be Orkney.<br /><br />Secondly, with regards to the area "just" being 5% of Scotland's population this seems to be a talking down of the D&G and the Borders which people here are all too used to from the central belt and Holyrood and is no way to encourage people over to a yes vote.<br /><br /><i>Yes</i> it is important to note that this poll is in no way indicative of the national picture, however it would be good to see pro-independence people take up the challenge of winning a majority of Yes in the South of Scotland.<br /><br />Getting the SNP government to promise more devolution to local areas (like they have done for the islands) would be a good start.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7273792458803729552014-06-17T23:30:16.964+01:002014-06-17T23:30:16.964+01:00I think it means the number of days to go to refer...I think it means the number of days to go to referendum date. A bit like the NASA countdown!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79726840467840804402014-06-17T23:24:48.015+01:002014-06-17T23:24:48.015+01:00Sorry for being a bit of a plank...
but what does...Sorry for being a bit of a plank...<br /><br />but what does the above mean?<br />Sunshine on Crieffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41669205763693696322014-06-17T22:50:14.286+01:002014-06-17T22:50:14.286+01:00Current = t-92.
@2011 t-69
Yougov:
41 Lab
32 SNP...Current = t-92.<br /><br />@2011 t-69<br />Yougov: <br />41 Lab<br />32 SNP<br />15 Con<br />8 Lib<br /><br />SNP took the lead at ~t-36.<br /><br />Big win only very likely according to polls by t-10.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.com