tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7025465279026192836..comments2024-03-29T09:36:27.923+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Why Labour will probably split unless Corbyn is deposedJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4593959883929565582015-08-23T23:59:40.163+01:002015-08-23T23:59:40.163+01:00Colonial governance! LOL
Do you really have such ...Colonial governance! LOL<br /><br />Do you really have such a low view of yourself as that?<br /><br />The Scottish Affairs Committee has historically been cross party in nature. But Scotland is now a one party state so if you want to maintain a multi-party balance, MPs have to be drawn from elsewhere. The SNP want dominance of the committee, despite getting less than half the votes of the people of Scotland.<br /><br />If that's the SNP's idea of being fair and democratic, give me the 'colonialism' any day.Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23467064949519311982015-08-23T11:23:42.943+01:002015-08-23T11:23:42.943+01:00Finally, always bear this in mind about the utter ...Finally, always bear this in mind about the utter chaos playing out in westminster. Not only did we predict utter chaos for this westminster term but this is only the beginning.<br /><br />By far the most amusing thing about the Labourshambles isn't what Labour are doing, but the completely oblivious way in which the nasty party tories and westminster bubble twits are wetting themselves with glee. Seemingly unaware that next year it's <b>THEIR</b> turn and all their shrieking about Corbyn will be a fond memory as they tear themselves apart over Europe.<br /><br />It is a certainty. <br /><br />Nor will desperately trying to gloss over the coming tory civil war with vague references to a Europe split fool anyone.<br /><br />Let's face the facts. On a fairly regular basis the incompetent fop was humiliated by the Eurosceptics in his own party during the last term and that was when he had Clegg's ostrich faction to hide behind and blame for his own weakness. <br /><br />He doesn't have that excuse now and with a tiny majority less than John Major's he's going to face the mother and father of all Europe splits. <br /><br />Cameron has to try and force the tory party into enthusiastically supporting a Yes not just to Europe but to EU immigration. Make no mistake, in England the OUT campaign will be almost <b>all</b> IMMIGRATION <b>all</b> the time. <br /><br />So the Cameroons are going to go into next year faced with the impossible task of presenting a united front that is not only pro-Europe but pro-EU immigration. It's Yes or No. There is no middle ground. Cameron won't be able to pretend a Yes is a No any more than Major was able to control his Eurosceptics when they caused utter chaos.<br /><br /> In the end the tory party will be choosing whether they, as a party, are pro-Europe and pro-EU immigration or whether they are Eurosceptic. <br /><br />Of course that might not last long and the nasty party might just keep the chaos going after the referendum since toppling a leader over Europe has always been a tory speciality even when the stakes were less high than they will be next year. Cameron could well go down in history as the new Ted Heath. <br /><br />So when the nasty party chaos and omnishambles over Europe begins next year just remember the out of touch twits, Pouters and Cameroons obliviously laughing at the Labourshambles right now.<br /><br />Rest assured, we will remember and will we be enjoying it all hugely, to say the least. ;o)Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85537629082339412592015-08-23T10:46:09.390+01:002015-08-23T10:46:09.390+01:00A Labour split is possible but the odious Blairite...A Labour split is possible but the odious Blairites would need someone to actually kickstart it off since, while self-justification (no matter how tenuous) has always been a speciality of the right-wing of the Labour party, someone with the balls to actually do the deed has not. Hence David Milliband bottling it over Brown. <br /><br />They are unprincipled careerists and if something looks risky to their own self-interest they will hesitate and balk at being the first to make such a massive career defining move. So unless the right of the Labour party finds a standard bearer willing to walk the walk I would still say a split is pretty unlikely. <br /><br />The fact that it was out of touch tories and westminster bubble twits who thought the amusingly dire Kendall was the answer is as telling as complete inability of (the only slightly less Blairite) Burnham and Cooper to work together to defeat Corbyn. The Labour right would have to coalesce round someone (or more likely several MPs) who not only isn't as crap as Kendall but who actually has clear plan for a breakaway and the ability to take enough MPs with them to make it more than a joke.<br /><br />The other thing to bear in mind is that everything that has transpired from establishment Labour and the PLP points to them preparing to overthrow Corbyn.<br /><br />The jawdropping spectacle of the #LabourPurge isn't just absolute proof of the Labour establishment's utter contempt for democracy but it self-evidently can't hope to change the numbers enough to have a really meaningful impact. That is not it's purpose. <br /><br />Establishment Labour and the Blairites are doing it to muddy the waters as much as possible and create controversy and doubt around the Leadership election process itself. <br /><br />Certainly, should Burnham or Copper win they would have an inquiry and magically find everything was just super and 'a storm in a teacup'. However, they are preparing for a Corbyn win so the whisper campaign would begin the second a Corbyn win was announced with the right wing dirty tricks and smears going into overdrive with the PLP would constantly whining about a "flawed process" to justify their disloyalty. <br /><br />So the question does become could the PLP overthrow Corbyn?<br /><br />Yes. If they are determined enough and don't mind getting their hands dirty then they could indeed make Labour under Corbyn completely ungovernable and a chaotic mess of infighting and not very subtle actions that would undermine him at every turn.<br /><br />We are talking about the type of unprincipled careerists who simply did not give a fuck about what the grassroots or indeed anyone else thought about invading Iraq. (Just like the tory twits and Neocon twats who supported them on that moronic catastrophe) So it's not as if establishment Labour will suddenly start caring about what the grassroots think now when they have careers to protect.<br />Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42516721008761436692015-08-23T09:48:13.355+01:002015-08-23T09:48:13.355+01:00"One nation, One United Kingdom"
http:/..."One nation, One United Kingdom"<br /><br />http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03381/cameron_3381491b.jpg<br /><br />Now <i>that's</i> a hollow slogan if not acutely embarrassing. Tories got their erse handed to them on a plate in N. Ireland (DUP and SDLP even united to vote down their welfare bill), got thrashed in Scotland, lost badly in Wales, and only managed a reasonably plurality in England.<br /><br />Tories couldn't be doing more to disunite the Kingdom.<br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34028045<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4450351661656304672015-08-23T09:34:37.489+01:002015-08-23T09:34:37.489+01:00"One nation, One United Kingdom"
Erm, n..."One nation, One United Kingdom"<br /><br />Erm, no Dave. 4 nations, one very disunited Kingdom thanks to the Tories.<br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34028045<br /><br />I just hope the damage the Tories are doing in N. Ireland will not result in a Stormont collapse and potential return of the troubles.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43984911920766711242015-08-23T09:21:54.771+01:002015-08-23T09:21:54.771+01:00I think it's to do with the fact that e.g. for...I think it's to do with the fact that e.g. for the first time in history (that I'm aware of), the Scottish Affairs Committee has a majority of, erm, <i>English</i> MPs. That is colonial governance.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78692781556088431732015-08-23T09:06:42.801+01:002015-08-23T09:06:42.801+01:00ICM don't have the best record in Scotland.
T...ICM don't have the best record in Scotland.<br /><br />They had SNP on 43% and UKIP on 7% consistently for May's GE.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44489874412422469082015-08-23T03:25:29.772+01:002015-08-23T03:25:29.772+01:00Get the story straight, Aldo - if you're telli...Get the story straight, Aldo - if you're telling me a poll of 700 is untrustworthy, a poll of 500 must be utterly useless in your eyes. But, as it happens, the sample size was the least of the problems.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58462486836872432132015-08-23T01:52:16.075+01:002015-08-23T01:52:16.075+01:00Lol - "that dodgy ICM poll" - but you...Lol - "that dodgy ICM poll" - but you're still completely happy to legitimise an ICM poll of approx 700 people that turned out to be a freak outlier slowing Yes 8 points ahead in the last week of the campaign.<br /><br />You pick and choose according to what's convenient.<br /><br />Regarding Corbyn, I'm not denying the man has extensive technical knowledge of many obscure and complex subjects. But he's made so many controversial statements over the years that all Cameron has to do is quote them back at him. Everything will be laid bare - his support for the IRA, Arab terrorist movements, and his support for mass immigration. It'll be like a lamb to the slaughter. <br /><br />Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19238788373052069442015-08-23T01:36:10.735+01:002015-08-23T01:36:10.735+01:00I don't recall the SNP receiving many votes in...I don't recall the SNP receiving many votes in those days.<br /><br />Isn't this idea of a tory 'enforcer' a wee Bit disingenuous? I've heard Mundell described as the 'governor general'. I know it fits the nationalist narrative. But these guys were elected in Scotland, by Scots, to represent them.<br /><br />To call Mundell a 'governor general' is to sh1t all over the Scotsmen and Scotswomen who voted for him.<br /><br />One Scotland? It's just an empty slogan Salmond exploited on the day of his disgrace.Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70425142060285086412015-08-23T01:28:02.837+01:002015-08-23T01:28:02.837+01:00You mean a bit like George Younger or Malcolm Rifk...You mean a bit like George Younger or Malcolm Rifkind being Mrs Thatcher's enforcer in Jockland?James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85742748202303007842015-08-23T01:17:27.354+01:002015-08-23T01:17:27.354+01:00Post Jacobite uprising and enforced largely by low...Post Jacobite uprising and enforced largely by lowland Scots. Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28718874200672370922015-08-23T01:09:34.570+01:002015-08-23T01:09:34.570+01:00It's going to be an extremely interesting few ...It's going to be an extremely interesting few months! Corbyn, Trident, the Holyrood election - can anyone remember a time when British politics was in such a state of flux? Fantastic stuff!<br /><br />Cancelling Trident after it's been ordered will probably really annoy some massive American defence corporation - and their friends in the American government.<br /><br />America still packs a punch. Bad idea to piss them off. But I suppose Corbyn wont care. He's anti American, anti capitalism, anti western.<br /><br />But the people first have to vote for him. Not a chance in hell.Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52236644418763740632015-08-23T00:57:24.428+01:002015-08-23T00:57:24.428+01:00Tell that to the victims of the Highland Clearance...Tell that to the victims of the Highland Clearances just a few decades later.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80920378556872660652015-08-23T00:55:45.479+01:002015-08-23T00:55:45.479+01:00Btw there were more things to be peed off about in...Btw there were more things to be peed off about in the 1700s than political union with England - plague, infant mortality, breach birth, minor infection, 18 hour days spent in back breaking agricultural work, being the 'wrong' type of Protestant - or, heaven forbid - a Catholic!<br /><br />When the Scots rioted upon the act of union, they had their priorities somewhat screwed up.Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37735166831826756762015-08-23T00:49:43.371+01:002015-08-23T00:49:43.371+01:00Was that the guy with the emu?
Scotland is not a ...Was that the guy with the emu?<br /><br />Scotland is not a country in any meaningful sense. But that's not a problem for me! If I'd been around in the 1700s, I may have been somewhat irritated. But I was born almost 300 years later. It's not relevant anymore. Yet we still pretend we're a country, with a diddy football team that can't even pass the ball. Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15637976495295075182015-08-23T00:39:50.425+01:002015-08-23T00:39:50.425+01:00This is Jeremy Corbyn a guy that has rebelled agai...This is Jeremy Corbyn a guy that has rebelled against the Labour whip on hundreds of occasions. The idea that he will suddenly become a pragmatic politician after 30+ years of idealism is not credible. Corbyn is not going to change his spots, he will believe he has a mandate and will stick to his guns.<br /><br />2020 is immaterial, it is how many Labour MPs will follow Corbyn into the lobby to vote against Trident early next year. denisenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79665507753495522642015-08-23T00:35:54.033+01:002015-08-23T00:35:54.033+01:00Oh, he could do that, but he's not going to. ...Oh, he could do that, but he's not going to. That's the Kinnock way, not the Corbyn way. Doubtless our friend Centripetal will regard that statement as more "wishful thinking" on my part, but in truth anyone who thinks that Corbyn - Corbyn of all people - will conveniently keep the Labour party united by compromising on unilateral nuclear disarmament is guilty of extreme wishful thinking. James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44381193604737740592015-08-23T00:30:26.571+01:002015-08-23T00:30:26.571+01:00James, the renewal of Trident needs to be approved...James, the renewal of Trident needs to be approved by parliament by end of March 2016. The new generation of Trident submarines and missiles will last until about 2058 and be paid for over the next thirty years.<br /><br />So, if Corbyn were to become PM in 2020, Trident renewal is signed, sealed and delivered by that point. He can then say "we don't approve of this - but the last government signed us up to it".<br /><br />So, in a way, Trident could be to Jeremy Corbyn what the Lisbon Treaty was to David Cameron. "Hey guys, you know, we don't like this anymore than you do - but it's done".Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80114748254032130682015-08-23T00:23:28.765+01:002015-08-23T00:23:28.765+01:00Oh, I agree none of the rest of them are any bette...Oh, I agree none of the rest of them are any better. But they won't be subjected to the monstering Corbyn is going to get (is already getting).Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29758209807762300742015-08-23T00:21:48.028+01:002015-08-23T00:21:48.028+01:00"Scotland isn't a country James."
A...<i>"Scotland isn't a country James."</i><br /><br />Ah, now I know who you are. You're Rod Liddle!<br /><br />http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2010/02/scotland-is-not-nation-advises-rod.htmlJames Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4160804164986101402015-08-23T00:19:57.280+01:002015-08-23T00:19:57.280+01:00Scotland isn't a country James. Or, at least, ...Scotland isn't a country James. Or, at least, that's what many of your yes comrades say. "We've voted to be a mere region!", they ranted last September. I agree! But we always were a region, ever since 1707. It's just that the majority finally, formally endorsed it. <br /><br />Constructive???!!!! Oh God - I'm losing my edge :0)<br /><br />I did come on here initially as a wind up but, to be honest, you all seem like quite nice people. Still think you're wrong though!Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76962097055001059362015-08-23T00:01:36.027+01:002015-08-23T00:01:36.027+01:00"For one, it completely ignores the potential...<i>"For one, it completely ignores the potential that Corbyn might moderate his platform to keep the party together."</i><br /><br />Absolutely. It completely ignores that because it's not a credible possibility. Jeremy Corbyn is not standing for the leadership to become Neil Kinnock Mark II. Yes, he'll trim his sails here and there, but he's not going to compromise on many things that are absolute red lines for the Labour "mainstream". I see little reason to suppose he'll modify his stance on NATO. I see absolutely no reason whatever to suppose he'll modify his position on unilateral nuclear disarmament.<br /><br />And, yes, this blogpost is speculative. That is, as they say, a feature not a bug. Sorry, but you appear to have misunderstood the whole nature of the exercise.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16754275115093182342015-08-22T23:37:56.634+01:002015-08-22T23:37:56.634+01:00This is pretty speculative at best. For one, it co...This is pretty speculative at best. For one, it completely ignores the potential that Corbyn might moderate his platform to keep the party together. Even Blair, who had strong support among MPs (which Corbyn doesn't have at all) moderated his positions in the early years to keep the left on side. Corbyn will win the leadership because of the membership, but he needs support from his MPs to get anything done in parliament and that means holding an olive branch out to the centre.<br /><br />And the example mentioned here (NATO) will be pretty high on that list. It's not just the right-wing of the Labour party that are closer to David Cameron on that issue; the entire centre of British politics supports staying in NATO, the SNP included. You could just about make a case for Corbyn winning an election on left-wing economics, but Labour advocating leaving NATO is simply shooting themselves in the foot, which is precisely why the SNP changed their policy on it.<br /><br />There are also huge costs politically to breaking off from Labour rather than trying to leverage it from inside. Just disagreeing on issues isn't enough for a party to break apart, otherwise the Tories would have split years ago. A split isn't just risky on an individual level, it could effectively destroy any chance the left has of defeating the Tories for decades. You don't make that decision unless it's an absolute last resort and nobody knows at this point how "bad" it would get because we have no idea how Corbyn is going to try and lead the party.<br /><br />Dreaming up reasons why something you'd like to happen might actually happen isn't political analysis, it's just wishful thinking. Centripetalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80603658486849666212015-08-22T23:36:52.131+01:002015-08-22T23:36:52.131+01:00I'm amazed...... Aldo has actually become a re...I'm amazed...... Aldo has actually become a relatively constructive commentator on this site. I have to wonder though, what exactly do you do? You are forever on this site? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com