tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6903895799345229574..comments2024-03-28T09:36:06.579+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: New TNS-BMRB referendum poll puts the pro-independence campaign at 40%James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37939787400886142352014-03-25T13:51:12.487+00:002014-03-25T13:51:12.487+00:00Marcia : No, we'd have ended up at the same de...Marcia : No, we'd have ended up at the same destination anyway. The only difference is that the tiny increase in the No lead would have happened at an earlier stage, followed by the significant drop.<br /><br />James : Yes, straw polls are completely useless. The only value of the debate polls is the 'before and after' element - it demonstrates that public opinion is not set in stone, and often it's the Yes arguments that prove more potent in winning people over.<br /><br />We don't know whether Ipsos-Mori referendum polls are landline-only, although to the best of my knowledge they've failed to clarify the situation so we have to assume it's a possibility. If they are landline-only, then in a sense they suffer from a similar problem to online polls - certain sections of the population are much less likely to be interviewed, because not everyone has a landline, and those who don't are disproportionately found in certain demographic groups. Just like online polls, there would be weighting to correct for that problem, but just like online polls there's bound to be the suspicion that weighting can't entirely eliminate any bias in the sample.<br /><br />Additionally, all telephone polls (including those that are not landline-only) suffer from the problem that people are far less likely to answer the phone than they used to be. Again, it's impossible to be sure that the people who do answer the phone are representative of the whole population (even after demographic weighting), and that introduces an element of uncertainty that wasn't there 20 years ago.<br /><br />My guess is that there hasn't been quite such a drop-off in the number of people who will answer a knock on their front door, so TNS may be a bit more reliable in that sense.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19380258803195865642014-03-25T13:15:10.904+00:002014-03-25T13:15:10.904+00:00I see this rather late poll has skewed your poll o...I see this rather late poll has skewed your poll of poll figures. Would I take that the last two figures should be swapped round?Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14352049767771792832014-03-25T11:50:59.346+00:002014-03-25T11:50:59.346+00:00It seems to me ALL the polls are a bit iffy.
The...It seems to me ALL the polls are a bit iffy. <br /><br />The online ones because it is clear from online data that YES is much more active and effective there. In addition, YES supporters seem to be more involved in the issues. So could they be over-represented in such Inet polls' lists? And can weighting really correct for that?<br /><br />Landline polls have to be dodgy. Nowadays due to spam calls not many people are willing to anwer home phones except to dedicated numbers. I wonder how many 'no shows' they get before they actually find someone who answers the phone (or opens the door) and is willing to take part?<br /><br />Finally straw polls are probably over-estimating YES due to the fact that NOs are under represented at meetings, although some of that could be 'weighted' using before <br />and after votes.<br /><br />I'd like to see your views on those <br />points James.<br />James Colemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08940550268246715045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83058776099566486692014-03-25T11:28:55.363+00:002014-03-25T11:28:55.363+00:00Now that we have the tables, I notice that the gro...Now that we have the tables, I notice that the group that the drop in YES comes completely from SNP voters. <br /><br />The swing to NO among people Certain/Very Likely To Vote has happened completely among people who "can't remember" how they voted in 2011. <br /><br />I don't agree with them counting "Can't Remember" with "Did Not Vote" to match the 2011 abstention rate. The two groups have completely different voting intentions and likelihood to vote figures. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65880032187657000832014-03-25T11:24:19.258+00:002014-03-25T11:24:19.258+00:00I would definitely be nervous if I was a No voter,...I would definitely be nervous if I was a No voter, but they are still on track to win. :(Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16613242334330613213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8987086722630409402014-03-25T01:02:15.367+00:002014-03-25T01:02:15.367+00:00Taken from What Scotland Thinks:
"Moreover,...Taken from What Scotland Thinks: <br /><br />"Moreover, although TNS BMRB report that the proportion of people who think that ‘currency’ is the most important issue to them in deciding how to vote has increased from 2% in January to 5% now, it is still only no. 8 in the poll’s list of most popular answers. Undecided voters show no greater interest in the issue than anyone else."<br /><br />Fear Febuary doesn't seem to have worked. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26672182819280447582014-03-25T00:36:38.644+00:002014-03-25T00:36:38.644+00:00It remains to be seen whether it was an outlier, t...It remains to be seen whether it was an outlier, though - it was very similar to the figures from two polls previous to that. It may be that the lead is going to bounce up and down on that measure, due to the greater margin of error after the certainty to vote filter is applied.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49909739898163320542014-03-25T00:34:21.889+00:002014-03-25T00:34:21.889+00:00I did suspect last month that the "Certain to...I did suspect last month that the "Certain to vote" figures could have been a bit of an outlier and it looks like I was right. Febuary's poll had quite a lower no vote among over 55s than normal, and since over 55s are most likely to vote that explains the narrower gap last time. <br /><br />We've now had four TNS polls this year, each one with a YES vote of 28%/29% and all with a 42% NO. <br /><br />Now that every pollster has reported back after the currency speech, we can confirm that it had little or no impact. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.com