tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6853084670407349708..comments2024-03-28T18:33:36.687+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Recalculating the Poll of Polls and long-term trend figures with Angus Reid excludedJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66479385315654831842014-04-22T14:11:59.888+01:002014-04-22T14:11:59.888+01:00A note for the Survation poll - the figures for th...A note for the Survation poll - the figures for the whole sample without a turnout filter show results of Yes: 37% No: 44% Don't Know: 19%. <br /><br />In fact, without the headlines being filtered for turnout, the different pollsters are mostly showing results within the margin of error of each other. <br /><br /> YES vote by pollster: <br /> ICM 39% <br />Panelbase 37% <br /> Survation 37% <br /> YouGov 37% <br /> TNS 29% <br /><br />NO vote by pollster:<br /> TNS 41% <br /> ICM 42% <br />Panelbase 43% <br /> Survation 44% <br /> YouGov 52% Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16447928646396963922014-04-22T13:12:42.561+01:002014-04-22T13:12:42.561+01:00No, it's only online pollsters that use volunt...No, it's only online pollsters that use volunteer panels, although obviously everyone selected by a phone pollster can either agree or refuse to take part.<br /><br />ICM and Survation are both conducting their referendum polls online. The only ones who aren't are Ipsos-Mori and TBS-BMRB.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53968151356886224612014-04-22T12:01:02.524+01:002014-04-22T12:01:02.524+01:00I know that the inet polls choose correspondents f...I know that the inet polls choose correspondents from a list of willing volunteers. Do those who use telephone or door to door use lists of the willing too or do they choose at random? <br /><br />Which kinds are ICM and Survation?<br /><br />james Colemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52862725636710684712014-04-21T16:40:53.206+01:002014-04-21T16:40:53.206+01:00Well, it's a 2-1 margin for No among English-b...Well, it's a 2-1 margin for No among English-born people, but that's obviously still very significant if they're being over-represented in the sample. According to Scottish Skier, the proportion of over-16s in the 2011 census who were born in England was 9.6%. That may have increased a bit in the three years since then, but it's hard to believe it's increased to 15%. It may be that ICM (and other pollsters) simply aren't weighting by country of birth, in which case there is indeed a problem with their figures.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21979519909980544922014-04-21T15:56:34.076+01:002014-04-21T15:56:34.076+01:00James
I wonder if you have any comment on the fac...James<br /><br />I wonder if you have any comment on the fact that the ICM poll for the Scotsman had 15% of the respondents born in England but living in Scotland.<br /><br />Given that the poll said that those born in England were more likely to vote No, by I think 3 to 1 margin, would this not have a big influence on the No vote by artificially making no much higher than it should be, as the % of English born people living in Scotland is no where near 15%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com