tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6404452992005690367..comments2024-03-29T09:57:11.038+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Yet another Ipsos-Mori megapoll underway, possibly paid for by the taxpayer - will this one be published?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76201692008595850732014-08-06T01:29:20.610+01:002014-08-06T01:29:20.610+01:00Seems like yesterday to me!Seems like yesterday to me!Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31773047922746755452014-08-06T00:15:07.685+01:002014-08-06T00:15:07.685+01:00Aye Rolfe, but that was ages ago, before I and pro...Aye Rolfe, but that was ages ago, before I and probably a few others had realised the worth of his site. Alastair McIntoshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02057511478889767753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26260994355422800992014-08-06T00:11:07.342+01:002014-08-06T00:11:07.342+01:00Alastair, he ran a wee fundraiser, didn't you ...Alastair, he ran a wee fundraiser, didn't you see it?Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6044466829981803322014-08-05T13:03:28.738+01:002014-08-05T13:03:28.738+01:00Poll this, Poll that...It's all just a load of...Poll this, Poll that...It's all just a load of crap...I've never been asked what my opinions are, neither has anyone I know and they are all yes supporters from various walks of life...<br />The "Latest Polls" are just something to keep the mainstream media occupied in the run up to the vote itself.<br /><br />Lets just keep on telling any no or undecided voters the real facts about independence and we're on a winner.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06390395753532667305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78649328366516011372014-08-04T22:24:52.002+01:002014-08-04T22:24:52.002+01:00James, when are you going to put a "donate&qu...James, when are you going to put a "donate" button on this site so that some of us can at least buy you a wee dram (wee is all it would be) to keep you going over the next 6 weeks?Alastair McIntoshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02057511478889767753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76843430347934564572014-08-04T13:09:03.903+01:002014-08-04T13:09:03.903+01:00Expat, why do you need to keep posting multiple ti...Expat, why do you need to keep posting multiple times? We saw it the first time. Are you incompetent?Pantone300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4154198962128756272014-08-04T02:59:05.700+01:002014-08-04T02:59:05.700+01:00Which paper is this...Which paper is this...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05345896062106550799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78156314152218992312014-08-03T15:33:10.583+01:002014-08-03T15:33:10.583+01:00er, it was the first print run of the UK Governmen...er, it was the first print run of the UK Government's pro-dependence document that had to be pulped.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12572002833178126956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60766802538373209872014-08-03T14:59:06.183+01:002014-08-03T14:59:06.183+01:00And finally we have already seen movement in this ...And finally we have already seen movement in this campaign from No to Yes so to suggest further movement is possible doesn't seem unreasonable. Of course it cannot be predicted easily in the way it can with elections because the historic models and data upon which predictions can be made are absent.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75407674970608176442014-08-03T14:59:00.726+01:002014-08-03T14:59:00.726+01:00I was polled on Friday by Ipsos/Mori. At first my ...I was polled on Friday by Ipsos/Mori. At first my aga was outwith the poll age requirement which I took umbrage sith as they had supposedly called randomly to poll the occupant. 2 hours later they called again as apparently the count was short. The first few questions were straightforward yes/no, then the strongly agree.......to strongly disagree ones. Then the crux of the questions were clearly set with a range of Yes Positives- that needed what do you believe is untrue or NO Positives what would be the worst to lose (all options were things already in place by Scottish Government!) And so it went on, I made my feelings clear as to the misleading questions and said I could not answer a misleading question with an answer to which the telephonist was happy to note none or all. Anyone who does not have their wits about them during a 20mins poll would start to say anything to get to the end. Having read plenty of literature claim and counter claim I knew every pitfall someone could fall into sith the wording of the questions. All I can say is no wonder Ipsos/Mori polls are always so far off the figures produced by othersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34527996016391271512014-08-03T14:48:34.137+01:002014-08-03T14:48:34.137+01:00But anyway I thought I made my point when I said t...But anyway I thought I made my point when I said there were numerous examples of opinion polls in referenda being massively out of line with the actual results. In wales for example the Yes side had a huge lead in the recent referendum on additional powers but the result was far narrower than expected. The Welsh example is not unusual. There are plenty others. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39003726117007802852014-08-03T14:44:05.391+01:002014-08-03T14:44:05.391+01:00What I mean is that one of the characteristics of ...What I mean is that one of the characteristics of referenda is that there can be sudden and unexpected movements of opinion. They aren't the same as elections where we can be fairly sure that at certain points of the electoral cycle that x tends to suggest y. The other point about them is that they are unique events so it's never possible to tell at any time in a campaign whether one particular set of data might be telling us anything useful in terms of the likely result because there is no comparative historical data. We can be fairly certain now for example on the basis of historic trends and data that the Cons will win the GE next year in the UK. But there has never been a referendum on Scottish independence before so nothing the polls show really tells us much since it is only after the event that analysis of any worth can be carried out. In the meantime we are left to dissect what data we have and speculate on its meaning. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25480341424364032222014-08-03T14:30:44.595+01:002014-08-03T14:30:44.595+01:00'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referen...'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referendum campaign in the way it is in an election is absurd.'<br /><br />What exactly do you mean? Why is it absurd? Opinion on a topic or an issue is often static, indeed it is more likely to be static than an election. You seem to be saying opinion must change because I want it to? Often it doesn't. And Survation has measured unchange for three months now as have most polls. Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17990207888664626922014-08-03T14:30:42.741+01:002014-08-03T14:30:42.741+01:00'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referen...'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referendum campaign in the way it is in an election is absurd.'<br /><br />What exactly do you mean? Why is it absurd? Opinion on a topic or an issue is often static, indeed it is more likely to be static than an election. You seem to be saying opinion must change because I want it to? Often it doesn't. And Survation has measured unchange for three months now as have most polls. Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15359417040923887642014-08-03T14:30:33.503+01:002014-08-03T14:30:33.503+01:00'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referen...'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referendum campaign in the way it is in an election is absurd.'<br /><br />What exactly do you mean? Why is it absurd? Opinion on a topic or an issue is often static, indeed it is more likely to be static than an election. You seem to be saying opinion must change because I want it to? Often it doesn't. And Survation has measured unchange for three months now as have most polls. Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76359369630264440312014-08-03T14:24:37.040+01:002014-08-03T14:24:37.040+01:00Polls often don't tally with private polling. ...Polls often don't tally with private polling. They didn't for the Republicans in the last US election , indeed the Republicans even supplied their private polling and returns to reporters to prove it. They still lost. As to the idea that politicians are somehow fixing polls to protect the pound, how exactly? Sounds like pure paranoia.Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50865016668904483852014-08-03T14:20:02.427+01:002014-08-03T14:20:02.427+01:00I can't see that this poll is any comfort to t...I can't see that this poll is any comfort to the No's. It certainly pleases me and I'm a Yes because we are talking about a Referendum here not an election. The notion that opinion is stuck in a referendum campaign in the way it is in an election is absurd. There are numerous examples of referenda opinion polls being massively out of line with the actual results. But always comforting to hear the arrogant and complacent attitudes of No supporters. I've travelled all over Scotland this week from Carter Bar to all points north and I am heartened by the visibility of the Yes campaign. There is not a part of the country we aren't present. It must be very depressing to be a No supporter and see window posters, car stickers and flags all over the shop. Can it really be that the huge discrepancy in our visibility and theirs is indicative of nothing about ground level support? Maybe but I'm not convinced. I guess by the babbling hysteria you get from them that they aren't either.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27757011555773356702014-08-03T10:43:18.863+01:002014-08-03T10:43:18.863+01:00Genuine question, but would a poll showing a likel...Genuine question, but would a poll showing a likely YES win create a stir and the City and a likely run on sterling, and if so would Osborne be forced to agree to a currency union to calm the markets?<br /><br />He had to calm the markets by clarifying the UK Governments position on debt. Could this possibly explain the need to use push-polling to keep up the illusion of NO being ahead?<br /><br />The reason I ask is because the polls don't tally with the private polling.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565910545409514845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51111521968234588202014-08-03T02:32:07.524+01:002014-08-03T02:32:07.524+01:00Anon : Well, I do hope you're not disappointed...Anon : Well, I do hope you're not disappointed. Analysis of the Survation poll, which shows Yes on the brink of victory, is now up.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61095087593682883072014-08-02T22:14:55.466+01:002014-08-02T22:14:55.466+01:00Thanks Survation. Where's the Yes bounce now? ...Thanks Survation. Where's the Yes bounce now? Can't wait to hear the "analysis".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68653345823221117602014-08-02T22:13:26.820+01:002014-08-02T22:13:26.820+01:00See that Alex Massie is boasting on twitter that h...See that Alex Massie is boasting on twitter that he lied to a Yes canvasser and his Unionist chums have taken his lie as absolute proof that the Yes canvass returns are nonsense.Alasdair Stirlinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01282612686734280239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66517010672101339552014-08-02T20:59:56.898+01:002014-08-02T20:59:56.898+01:00"This is not conviction or enthusiasm it is b..."This is not conviction or enthusiasm it is blind allegiance. If people here are really so far gone they actually think that, then I fear for the country if Yes wins."<br /><br />Oops. <br /><br />You seem to have slipped up here again. Obviously no need for further explanation. We're all poll geeks here after all.<br /><br />Not a bad effort in general. Sure it was thin, but overall a the higher end of the scale.<br /><br />---<br /><br />Polls reflect what people say, not what they intend. They may intend what they say, or, as e.g. 2011 showed us on a grand scale, the may be planning the opposite of what they say.<br /><br />We can but wait and see. <br /><br />Either people are being totally honest (which would be unique in polling) and we'll get something close, or they're not (which is the norm) as ICM showed quite clearly and Yes will do very well. <br /><br />At face value, e.g. 45% Yes is a disaster for the union. What a mess. No seems incapable of winning 'properly'. It may get a rear-guard victory, but a shallow one. Sort of like 2007 again... close, but a wee bit of a wait for the cigar once more.<br /><br />If people want life to be 'normal', then they need to vote Yes. A No just guarantees a continued crisis and more 'Scots are racists braveheart loving Nazis' crap etc.<br /><br />How much can Scotland take of that is a pertinent question certainly.<br />scottish_skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74615670383451474052014-08-02T20:14:57.485+01:002014-08-02T20:14:57.485+01:00There has never been an accurate opinion poll in S... There has never been an accurate opinion poll in Scotland. The english pollsters can't cope with 4 party politics and the anti-tory tactical vote. Any similarity between a poll and the actual election result is pure chance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12282177228339327172014-08-02T18:55:54.360+01:002014-08-02T18:55:54.360+01:00"Yet whever I look at the quoted evidence on ..."Yet whever I look at the quoted evidence on both I find the polls have been relatively and reasonably accurate"<br /><br />So you know the result already?Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56103046491841574712014-08-02T18:43:40.685+01:002014-08-02T18:43:40.685+01:00In fact a former SNP man was quoted in the papers ...<i>In fact a former SNP man was quoted in the papers today on his change from YES to NO .</i><br /><br />Missing word'ALLEGEDLY'.<br /><br />cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.com