tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post639965014482471790..comments2024-03-28T15:09:16.383+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: If Nick Clegg loses his seat, would opportunity knock even louder for the SNP?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8516555572853293472015-02-08T17:15:48.632+00:002015-02-08T17:15:48.632+00:00I'm sure there was a post on UKPR last night, ...I'm sure there was a post on UKPR last night, including a link which confirmed that it was Survation. I now can't find this, so either I imagined it, or the post has been removed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31418994706192751482015-02-08T14:25:12.924+00:002015-02-08T14:25:12.924+00:00James, do you have any idea who he means? By a pr...James, do you have any idea who he means? By a process of elimination all I could think of was Survation - I can't think of any other relatively new but well-known firm that would have the capability or willingness to conduct telephone constituency polls.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1191015938877581932015-02-08T13:05:10.097+00:002015-02-08T13:05:10.097+00:00Ashcroft said in the apology piece that the incorr...Ashcroft said in the apology piece that the incorrect polls were conducted by a company he hadn't used before or since. He also dropped a pretty big clue by saying it was a recently-established firm (i.e. not Populus, who did the Scottish polls for him).Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57458806270206172282015-02-08T12:09:34.817+00:002015-02-08T12:09:34.817+00:00"with SNP declaring no deals with the Tories,...<i>"with SNP declaring no deals with the Tories,they have lost their only bargaining chip with Labour"</i><br /><br />That's simply not true. A commitment to vote against the Tories in a confidence vote does not equate to a commitment to prop Labour up. Without a deal with the SNP, Ed Miliband would find himself "in office, but not in power", and would soon have to seek a fresh mandate (if he could get past the Fixed Terms Parliaments Act), which he almost certainly wouldn't get. If he's unpopular now, can you imagine how unpopular he'll be as Prime Minister? That's the bargaining lever the SNP have - they can offer Labour four or five years of protection from the electorate.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75971385047385878912015-02-08T12:01:35.151+00:002015-02-08T12:01:35.151+00:00Would you feel less worried if the polling showed ...Would you feel less worried if the polling showed Labour in the lead?keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22910874254090085052015-02-08T10:29:00.332+00:002015-02-08T10:29:00.332+00:00I'm also worried about all the recent polling ...I'm also worried about all the recent polling showing a huge SNP lead.<br />The British State thought a No vote would crush the Scottish spirit, and it didn't. Maybe they think that raising our hopes, but delivering another 'No' will do the trick?Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58240796225074379312015-02-08T09:46:05.640+00:002015-02-08T09:46:05.640+00:00That would play comfortably into the Red Tories na...That would play comfortably into the Red Tories narrative though, basically handing the SNP another Holyrood majority in 2016.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62278860527768115312015-02-08T09:41:07.171+00:002015-02-08T09:41:07.171+00:00And if the SNP didn't declare "no deals w...And if the SNP didn't declare "no deals with the Tories" it would be exploited by Labour and they'd never win enough seats to make it worth their while.<br /><br />I'm more concerned about the accuracy of Ashcroft's polls. If important ones like these are so wide of the mark, can we trust the recent Scottish sample of 16 constituencies? Should we anyway? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01345462043603219433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50499270711807746082015-02-08T08:35:48.064+00:002015-02-08T08:35:48.064+00:00Iain McWhirter has a point that, with SNP declarin...Iain McWhirter has a point that, with SNP declaring no deals with the Tories,they have lost their only bargaining chip with Labour. This makes a minority Labour government very likely. Tories backing Labour up in votes on austerity, Trident and the mini-vow.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12363479976693016493noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70637776573603256482015-02-08T00:26:11.837+00:002015-02-08T00:26:11.837+00:00True. I just find myself incredibly disappointed b...True. I just find myself incredibly disappointed by politicians like Farron, who I would expect to speak sensibly and responsibly under any other circumstance. It comes as a shock when democracy in Scotland sends them over the edge.Iainnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38926595771178168202015-02-07T23:39:24.251+00:002015-02-07T23:39:24.251+00:00The BBC attitude is pretty telling.
Nick Robinso...The BBC attitude is pretty telling. <br /><br />Nick Robinson 'Can Democracy Work?<br />Coverage of hung parliament options.<br />Archive on 4 tonight's topic Coups and Coalitions: The Two Elections of 1974<br /><br />During the Referendum it was “Scottish independence would be cataclysmic for the world" but now it seems that a hung parliament with a cohort of SNP MPs would too!<br /><br />And now the possibility of a leaderless Lib-Dem party - the end of the world is nigh! Arghhhh! bjsalbanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85505227508537228662015-02-07T23:27:11.364+00:002015-02-07T23:27:11.364+00:00The irony is that Farron would probably be the lea...The irony is that Farron would probably be the least worst option in some ways. Almost all Westminster politicians have an attitude problem with respect to Scotland, so I suppose we just have to try and separate that out.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2576306937269954162015-02-07T23:17:59.429+00:002015-02-07T23:17:59.429+00:00I hate to say it, but wouldn't the most likely...I hate to say it, but wouldn't the most likely leader in that situation be Tim Farron? The man who disgracefully smeared the SNP 2 weeks ago on Question Time? Iainnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52478870441639381672015-02-07T23:16:57.467+00:002015-02-07T23:16:57.467+00:00Re Lib-Dem Leadership.
Recent Express headline: ...Re Lib-Dem Leadership. <br /><br />Recent Express headline: Fury as convicted criminal Chris Huhne handed Parliament pass. <br /><br />No surely they wouldn't. But then again these days there seems to be no limits to the lies that WM politicians will tell with nary so much as a blush, so why not? At least it wasn't paedophilia. <br /><br />I have to say that I'm beginning to feel that things are getting a bit unreal a la “Curiouser and curiouser!” Cried Alice. Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderlandbjsalbanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43356558451575081272015-02-07T21:50:47.950+00:002015-02-07T21:50:47.950+00:00He revealed a year or so back that he used a varie...He revealed a year or so back that he used a variety of different firms. I think we just assumed that he had mainly settled on Populus because of the anecdotal evidence of people being called by Populus when his polls were in the field.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61811276567134225492015-02-07T21:46:10.930+00:002015-02-07T21:46:10.930+00:00I was the impression that Ashcroft normally used P...I was the impression that Ashcroft normally used Populus for his polls, but it's been said that these incorrect polls were carried out by an unnamed "well-known but relatively new polling firm". If he's using different polling firms for the fieldwork then surely that doesn't bode well for the consistency of his polls? After all, different firms will have different approaches towards the collection of data, even if Ashcroft weighs all the data in the same manner.Stoatnoreply@blogger.com