tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6088363306225409131..comments2024-03-28T18:07:58.184+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Now that the pollsters are an official part of the democratic process, they can't act as if their methodology is a private matter for them aloneJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80948613856016058182015-03-12T15:54:45.352+00:002015-03-12T15:54:45.352+00:00Vote Labour and let the Tories in by the back door...Vote Labour and let the Tories in by the back door :-)Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15231632501845222522015-03-12T15:43:04.259+00:002015-03-12T15:43:04.259+00:00YouGov, eh.
We know at least 2 things about them....YouGov, eh.<br /><br />We know at least 2 things about them.<br /><br />1) Tory-supporting Murdoch media is a very lucrative client for them.<br /><br />2) They often show very favourable figures for the Tories at timely moments - particularly after big set-pieces - which the Murdoch media use to big up their beloved blue boys. Even if other pollsters show no similar shifts.<br /><br />I'm sure these two things are entirely unrelated, of course.<br /><br />But I'll be watching the polling on Gideon's upcoming make-or-break budget with interest. <br /><br />Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43672754173908403992015-03-12T15:37:18.008+00:002015-03-12T15:37:18.008+00:00It seems to be from the same set of polls that res...It seems to be from the same set of polls that resulted in this.<br /><br /><i>Survation were not responsible for drafting the questionnaires used, sampling design discussions or analysis of the results. These polls should therefore not properly be described as “Survation polls”. As a consequence, Survation is not responsible for the publication of these polls under BPC rules. Any member of the public with queries regarding the detail or further information about the mentioned polling work should be directed to the Liberal Democrats.</i><br /><br />http://survation.com/in-reference-to-recent-liberal-democrat-polling-shared-privately-with-the-media/<br /><br />So complete junk polling then. Zero credibility.<br /><br />I'd add that Clegg's ostrich faction would be a laughing stock to feature a set of disowned and discredited polling in any election literature but they're a laughing stock anyway so that was probably the plan all along.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44096570860829810872015-03-12T15:33:44.151+00:002015-03-12T15:33:44.151+00:00Ipsos Mori sub-sample (very small size) produces a...Ipsos Mori sub-sample (very small size) produces a curious result:<br /><br />SNP 42, Con 29, Lab 14, LD 12.<br /><br />https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/mar2015web.pdfJamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38856476331177250722015-03-12T15:13:29.702+00:002015-03-12T15:13:29.702+00:00Mmmm, very sceptical of that. Rather small sample ...Mmmm, very sceptical of that. Rather small sample size and I'm always naturally suspicious of people releasing private polls as there's always the risk of cherry picking the most favourable results. Maybe at best it says the Lib Dems are possibly in with a shout, but nothing more.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68152241643844297212015-03-12T15:07:26.854+00:002015-03-12T15:07:26.854+00:00Doesn't take a polling geek to trash the shit ...Doesn't take a polling geek to trash the shit out of the BBC's attempt at stirring up racial tensions + say 'Look: Scotland and England both don't like foreigners - vote Labour / No' through Yougov. Just as bad push poll questioning as that Survation one last year.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.scottishrefugeecouncil.org.uk/news_and_events/latest_blogs/2597_welcome_to_scotland" rel="nofollow">http://www.scottishrefugeecouncil.org.uk/news_and_events/latest_blogs/2597_welcome_to_scotland</a><br /><br /><b>Welcome to Scotland?</b><br /><br /><i>Pauline Diamond Salim, Media Officer at Scottish Refugee Council<br /><br />Ask a blunt question, get a blunt answer.<br /><br />What a missed opportunity from BBC Scotland to tell us something we don’t already know.<br /><br />This week’s poll on Scottish attitudes towards immigration seemed designed to do one thing: generate a set of headlines. It certainly generated little insight into what people in Scotland think about immigration to Scotland...</i><br /><br />All the flaws pointed out succinctly. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35130380622784035412015-03-12T14:47:11.819+00:002015-03-12T14:47:11.819+00:00The industry body who "regulate" them ar...The industry body who "regulate" them are made up of *and funded by*, you guessed it, the polling companies. I can't see that private companies who can somewhat skew the outcome of elections should be allowed to do so without a full transcript of their methods every single time they release figures. They still bandy the 3% error value around like it actually means anything, that's sampling error not the total error in their system which is totally unknowable, though we can guess. All of this leaves a lot of wriggle room for bad behaviour I'd say! I also bet a significant number of polling company employees have no idea about basic statistics and error, which makes interaction with them online in any sensible academic sense quite difficult.<br /><br />All of this is rather like getting The Portman Group to do the NHS stats on morbitity/mortality rates from alcohol consumption!Scottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30024635757300264532015-03-12T14:14:41.078+00:002015-03-12T14:14:41.078+00:00"Question ladder with the MP's popularity...<i>"Question ladder with the MP's popularity rating asked before the VI question, full weighting back to the 2010"</i><br /><br />Almost meaningless then since you obviously don't get a question ladder in the polling booth. I'm surprised they have money to burn on duff polls in such a frivolous way. Not that they will have all that much in the way of activist numbers for the ground campaign either considering how massively unpopular calamity Clegg has made the yellow tories.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44791251927242766352015-03-12T14:04:37.036+00:002015-03-12T14:04:37.036+00:00Fieldwork done at the same time as Ashcroft, so it...Fieldwork done at the same time as Ashcroft, so it isn't a question of opinion having changed since his poll.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83023075398072726652015-03-12T14:03:33.691+00:002015-03-12T14:03:33.691+00:00Looks like the Lib Dems have been doing some of th...Looks like the Lib Dems have been doing some of their comfort polling in Scotland as well. They've produced a poll, with fieldwork done by Survation, of West Aberdeenshire showing them narrowly ahead of both the Tories and the SNP. Most likely it will have the same characteristics as the poll they produced in an English seat earlier this week. Question ladder with the MP's popularity rating asked before the VI question, full weighting back to the 2010 result and sample size of around 400.<br /><br />https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/517422/polling-suggests-lib-dems-can-retain-north-east-seat/Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57126787709801895602015-03-12T08:46:06.994+00:002015-03-12T08:46:06.994+00:00Here's a thought that might be worth a bit of ...Here's a thought that might be worth a bit of discussion. Snp win a majority of seats (hopefully 50 plus) they gain agreement for FFA or as close to it as possible, with borrowing powers. Will they agree an EVEL trade off for it? If so, how would Labour react? This could potentially expose Labour even more, as being power hungry and having no real interest in Scotland? Thoughts? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29501745227167887932015-03-12T07:35:13.342+00:002015-03-12T07:35:13.342+00:00I notice in that Redbox Yougov left-right survey t...I notice in that Redbox Yougov left-right survey that Scots seem to see themselves as quite measurably more left than people in England. Given that's a big topic of 'debate' for the coming election, surely the BBC should follow up with a full Scottish poll and devote a week to analysis of the results?Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44129258540729499752015-03-12T06:33:06.886+00:002015-03-12T06:33:06.886+00:00Speaking of YouGov, their sub-sample result today ...Speaking of YouGov, their sub-sample result today is more like the long-term average, after a few days of going below then above.<br /><br />SNP 43, Lab 27, Con 18, Others <4.<br /><br />http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sjv8qo2081/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-110315.pdfJamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28044323785636266022015-03-12T04:19:09.237+00:002015-03-12T04:19:09.237+00:00Stick it to him, James. Not overly enamoured of th...Stick it to him, James. Not overly enamoured of that breed.<br /><br />Had a point of dispute with the Ipsos Mori suit early on indyref day. Made a misleading (false) statement (that could effect voting behavior) that appeared in every paper, around late morning/lunchtime.<br /><br />He first claimed there was no error, then after much pressure, that there may have been an error but it was a mere bagatelle with no substantive impact, and therefore he would not correct it. It was evening and more banging on the drum before he decided that indeed it may have an impact and at last corrected it. But by then of course, any damage would have been already done.<br /><br />Given the margin on the day, it would not have changed the result at all - not even close. However, at the time of its original dissemination we didn't know that. In a real close run contest it could have made the difference between win and lose.<br /><br />I can only think of two explanations - negligence rising to the level of professional malfeasance or a conscious choice to inject the "unfortunate misstatement" into the news cycle. Christian Wrighthttp://www.weourselves.comnoreply@blogger.com