tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6073179579754421845..comments2024-03-29T09:57:11.038+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP and Plaid Cymru close to within just 1% of the Liberal Democrats in today's Britain-wide YouGov pollJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52062942566327159932015-01-18T00:06:00.456+00:002015-01-18T00:06:00.456+00:00Except that surely when thinking about voting tact...Except that surely when thinking about voting tactically with the overall UK seat count in mind that the last thing any Tory or UK supporter is likely to want is to give more seats to Labour. The same effect means that I don't expect many Labour supporters to turn out to save Mundell :-) <br /><br />I guess that LibDems may get some bounce back benefit from this at some point - but I'd not expect enough to save many of themGordon Innesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17047592170273772442015-01-17T23:49:35.623+00:002015-01-17T23:49:35.623+00:00No matter how polls oscillate, variations should n...No matter how polls oscillate, variations should not lead to swings in emotion or in determination to get the result 1.5 million odd supporters of SNP and YES want.<br /><br />Once the worst of the winter weather is over they absolutely have to get out posting fliers and stickers, canvassing, informing,talking to family,friends and neighbours, holding meetings, evenings in pubs and clubs, knocking on doors relentlessly .And so on. Indyref mark II<br /><br />Before polling day they have to keep a keen eye on postal votes, particularly in old peoples and nursing homes. Anywhere where groups are voting<br /> On the day they have to get voters out by whatever means possible - encouragement, insistence, transport etc . <br /><br />all of this is possible and feasible in every constituency<br /><br />If they put in the work I am confident they will get an SNP landslide . I sincerely hope they doAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71793028691035728522015-01-17T23:21:01.752+00:002015-01-17T23:21:01.752+00:00I've thought to that effect myself. Murphy...I've thought to that effect myself. Murphy's still a Blairite and for all his talk about reaching out to left wing Yes voters, I would imagine that he would be more adept at reaching out to the centre right.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-303270183464158822015-01-17T23:16:04.372+00:002015-01-17T23:16:04.372+00:00@stoat
I think Jim will be able to bring over the...@stoat<br /><br />I think Jim will be able to bring over the hard right conservative vote, even some UKIP and BNP to Labour under FPTP to stop the SNP. So I do expect Lab to do better than polls might suggest right now.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79034487129821581602015-01-17T23:10:25.114+00:002015-01-17T23:10:25.114+00:00@stoat
Yes, an SNP majority of MPs would be a sev...@stoat<br /><br />Yes, an SNP majority of MPs would be a severe pickle for the UK which WoS would enjoy promoting. Me too!<br /><br />My hope is 29+ SNP MPs so that Westminster doesn't have a clear electoral mandate for Scotland.<br /><br />Any more is a bonus.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26358721250532593982015-01-17T23:10:20.684+00:002015-01-17T23:10:20.684+00:00Definitely agree that you can't rush to judgem...Definitely agree that you can't rush to judgement on the basis of one poll. Though I know that some on my own side will be eager to paint this as some sort of unstoppable momentum brought to us by our exalted Saint Jim!Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55080689008995764742015-01-17T22:59:17.115+00:002015-01-17T22:59:17.115+00:00@ James
Up to a 6% (+/-3%) change in a single pol...@ James<br /><br />Up to a 6% (+/-3%) change in a single poll is fairly normal. It could be something, but unless it keeps happening, you must assume it's nothing.<br /><br />If we get a MORI, ICM and survation showing similar trends, then we can start to speculate. Otherwise, we have a poll within recent ranges and we sit and wait for the next.<br /><br />I just wish we had the huge number of polls we get for UK VI. Although of course the problem of variance does not go away!Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43174961674508757922015-01-17T22:49:05.870+00:002015-01-17T22:49:05.870+00:00Huh? It's quite a big change, at the extremiti...Huh? It's quite a big change, at the extremities of margin for error.<br /><br />It's being published in the Sunday Herald, but they are (perhaps understandably) playing down the VI results and talking about other findings on the front page.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24185842281292794732015-01-17T22:47:02.978+00:002015-01-17T22:47:02.978+00:00So the panelbase poll is no change.
Do you mean &...<b>So the panelbase poll is no change.</b><br /><br />Do you mean "No change" as in the overall winner, or the headline figures? Because the gap has closed a little, though obviously the SNP are still well out in front.<br /><br /><b>Not sure why that needed any mystery / hold then release to a paper.<br /><br />I thought the fact it was being held / published in the MSM might hint at a new development.</b><br /><br />Free advertising for Wos? I noticed that when RevStu gave a poll for the Sunday Times to release, the paper mentioned Wings Over Scotland in the actual article. So maybe it's a case of him saying to the Sunday Times "Here's a free poll if you mention our name".Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19490570028353164872015-01-17T22:37:29.170+00:002015-01-17T22:37:29.170+00:00So the panelbase poll is no change.
Not sure why ...So the panelbase poll is no change.<br /><br />Not sure why that needed any mystery / hold then release to a paper.<br /><br />I thought the fact it was being held / published in the MSM might hint at a new development.<br /><br />Not that I'm complaining at the numbers though!<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89665378406188686542015-01-17T22:31:01.775+00:002015-01-17T22:31:01.775+00:00Change on their last poll, which was in early Nove...Change on their last poll, which was in early November, is SNP -4 Lab +3. <br /><br />Perhaps a continuation of a recent trend, which started a month or so before the referendum, of Panelbase being less optimistic / friendly towards the SNP. 17 points in November was a lower lead than others were showing (e.g. Ipsos or Survation). This result is actually closer to what the Electoral Forecast ("Newsnight Index") thinks is the current state (SNP 44 Lab 31).Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36016947527019159552015-01-17T22:15:01.453+00:002015-01-17T22:15:01.453+00:00People never get particularly enthused about the s...People never get particularly enthused about the status quo. Plus Better Together never really set out to enthuse and inspire people, that wasn't what the campaign was all about. So it was always going to be the case that our own supporters would be spending their free time at leisure rather than involving themselves in political discourse.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43699715242682841952015-01-17T22:06:40.786+00:002015-01-17T22:06:40.786+00:00That's right folks, IT'S PANELBASE TIME!!!...That's right folks, IT'S PANELBASE TIME!!!!<br /><br />SNP 41%<br />Labour 31%<br />Conservatives 14%<br />Ukip 7%<br />Lib Dems 3%<br />Others 3%<br /><br />This takes me back to the referendum campaign, waiting until 10PM for the poll results.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25202569445575956752015-01-17T21:43:34.200+00:002015-01-17T21:43:34.200+00:00“A Labour government would lead to economic chaos”...“A Labour government would lead to economic chaos”<br /><br />Agree – 42%<br /> Disagree – 30%”<br />-Comres<br /><br />Roll Up, Roll Up, All vote for Economic Chaos! <br /><br />Which will serve to put Labour/Red Ed under even more pressure to 'prove' he is economically trustworthy,<br /><br />Or to put it in more honestly blunt terms, This will get Labour attacking the poor even more than they have been! and shows why Labour MP's were ordered to troop into the voting chambers shoulder to shoulder with their Tory chums to vote for a further £30 Billion austerity cuts.<br />Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63477805690975752792015-01-17T21:37:31.546+00:002015-01-17T21:37:31.546+00:00Something I found interesting tonight was the #MyF...Something I found interesting tonight was the #MyFutureScotland thread on twitter. A foolhardy and backfiring attempt by Scottish Labour to garner Yoof support.<br /><br />What's just struck me is that, as expected it's been hijacked to laugh at Labour and support Independence. But the real revelation is that it's been COMPLETELY hijacked. There are, pretty much no backers of Labour or the Union posting to this thread.<br /><br />It makes me wonder just how much of the Better Together social media campaign was real during the referendum. There is literally nothing for the Union on a hashtag which has been trending UK wide since at the latest 6pm and is still there in the top ten. But virtually nothing in favour of Labour despite it being "their" hashtag.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15593637897754225762015-01-17T19:50:03.476+00:002015-01-17T19:50:03.476+00:00Couple of GB polls out so far today, Opinium and C...Couple of GB polls out so far today, Opinium and ComRes.<br /><br />Opinium don't give regional / national breakdowns of their results, but the SNP score can be guess-timated. The number of Scottish respondents was 161, weighted up to 172. The SNP scored 59, weighted up to 67. 67/172 is 39%, but the total includes don't knows and would not votes. These groups formed 23% of the total sample. Being conservative and assuming it is 20% in the Scottish group, that would reduce the number of Scots (weighted) with an intention from 172 to 138. 67/138 = 49%.<br /><br />http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_13_01_2015.pdf<br /><br />ComRes do give regional / national numbers. 156 respondents expressed an intention and were 5 to 10 likely to vote in Scotland, weighted down to 125. Of those the SNP scored 47%, Labour 22 and the Tories 17.<br /><br />https://comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_18th_January_2015.pdfJamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61091201834513286802015-01-17T14:41:12.012+00:002015-01-17T14:41:12.012+00:00"Am I correct in thinking that if you are alr...<b>"Am I correct in thinking that if you are already registered, you don't have to do it this one time (but will have to register individually after)? That seemed to be what the letter I received said anyway."</b><br /><br />I think so, my letter was along those lines. The ones who are missing out seem to be mostly students who move around a lot.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57265890267928494862015-01-17T14:39:49.568+00:002015-01-17T14:39:49.568+00:00If it's one of the Sunday papers he sold the r...If it's one of the Sunday papers he sold the rights to, then it will be embargoed till 10pm tonight.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77493409839060059962015-01-17T13:56:24.184+00:002015-01-17T13:56:24.184+00:00Am I correct in thinking that if you are already r...Am I correct in thinking that if you are already registered, you don't have to do it this one time (but will have to register individually after)? That seemed to be what the letter I received said anyway.Johnnynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55481714268851743132015-01-17T12:15:27.239+00:002015-01-17T12:15:27.239+00:00BBC on-line reporting that 25% of 16 to 18 year ol...BBC on-line reporting that 25% of 16 to 18 year olds were so enthused by the referendum vote, that they have since joined a political party to become activists.<br /><br />they didn’t say what party these kids joined (of course)<br /> but this may go a long way to explaining why a lot of unionists don’t want this age group to have a vote in normal elections<br />Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27031801810474420282015-01-16T23:37:25.312+00:002015-01-16T23:37:25.312+00:00Why the delay in the release of the Panelbase West...Why the delay in the release of the Panelbase Westminster voting intentions? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14948452538170958172015-01-16T22:29:18.838+00:002015-01-16T22:29:18.838+00:00Yesindyref2 - I really agree with everything you&#...Yesindyref2 - I really agree with everything you've said there. I dare say it was what we did in our (admittedly pretty small town) campaigning where I live. If anything we were probably nicer to the No people we spoke to than the Yes people.<br /><br />My experience of arguing about politics is that people can pretty much take anything negative you throw at them, but what really makes them think is when you listen to them. For example there was an older lady who said to us she'd vote No because of the pensions issue. Instead of disputing it, we just said she was right to be worried about it, that there were some real questions (and so on) but that if you looked at it in a different way most of what she was worried about would be ok in practice. I don't know if she voted Yes in the end, but I'd say for certain she was more Yes than when we first met her.<br /><br />Cassidynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14098120946174740462015-01-16T21:46:46.322+00:002015-01-16T21:46:46.322+00:00Surely unfruitful.Surely unfruitful.Fordiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04306196668411087372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87274410502028599552015-01-16T20:59:05.667+00:002015-01-16T20:59:05.667+00:00A tale of two parliaments.
Murphy's mission,sh...A tale of two parliaments.<br />Murphy's mission,should he be successful,is to ensure that England's parliament continues to rule over Scotland's.<br />All the rest is smoke and mirrors to blind Scots to the lack of democratic accountability here in Scotland.bringitonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10712089398887269381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40495198459986868532015-01-16T20:49:23.771+00:002015-01-16T20:49:23.771+00:00Could be, although RevStu once passed a Panelbase ...Could be, although RevStu once passed a Panelbase poll to the Sunday Times.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.com