tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6027036906387945216..comments2024-03-29T10:08:59.956+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Tories tormented as super SNP secure staggering swing in cracking Kintyre contestJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58501603220311856392014-12-12T23:51:06.471+00:002014-12-12T23:51:06.471+00:00The best candidate won. But what does it say about...The best candidate won. But what does it say about the rest if they cannot find locals to stand? <br />MogabeeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15731028545149473842014-12-12T17:42:50.569+00:002014-12-12T17:42:50.569+00:00To be fair, this result couldn't be fully repr...To be fair, this result couldn't be fully representative, because it would imply the SNP are 73% ahead of the Conservatives nationwide.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78491091568567402192014-12-12T17:22:45.067+00:002014-12-12T17:22:45.067+00:00Plus from what I've heard, the SNP winner was ...Plus from what I've heard, the SNP winner was a popular local figure.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79872432937763256482014-12-12T17:08:53.728+00:002014-12-12T17:08:53.728+00:00The S Kintyre is not going to be fully representat...The S Kintyre is not going to be fully representative of current trends - apparently the Conservatives chose a candidate who lives 50 miles outside the ward boundary. A fatal mistake in such a close-knit areasarissahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01402135261886493218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60783783514168473412014-12-12T14:56:01.630+00:002014-12-12T14:56:01.630+00:00Murph's anointment is only being announced tom...Murph's anointment is only being announced tomorrow. I would expect the Sundays to care more about that than the latest nail in Rangers' coffin.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86355689414203506492014-12-12T14:21:38.172+00:002014-12-12T14:21:38.172+00:00I would say so, Skier. I always saw voter apathy ...I would say so, Skier. I always saw voter apathy as the greatest threat to my side throughout the referendum. People who are relatively content with the status quo are less inclined to political action of any description.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1664131587046770332014-12-12T14:14:34.465+00:002014-12-12T14:14:34.465+00:00Unionist party voters the most apathetic?Unionist party voters the most apathetic?Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25017418330212657852014-12-12T14:02:49.545+00:002014-12-12T14:02:49.545+00:00More like an example of the results achieved by vo...More like an example of the results achieved by voter apathy.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87217693494275396152014-12-12T14:01:32.929+00:002014-12-12T14:01:32.929+00:00Heh, no problem. I've got a pretty thick skin...Heh, no problem. I've got a pretty thick skin (Wouldn't have been canvassing otherwise). I've always been pretty sceptical towards the by-elections. Take, for example, last year's Hollyrood by-election where the SNP lost Bill Walker's former seat to Labour. Although I was pleased with the result, I never expected it to have implications for future elections or the independence referendum.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69628190798496694152014-12-12T13:54:29.528+00:002014-12-12T13:54:29.528+00:00Excluding the Independent to get party shares, the...Excluding the Independent to get party shares, the SNP polled 49.7% of party affiliated first preferences.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36212166656192757022014-12-12T13:50:16.198+00:002014-12-12T13:50:16.198+00:00Oh well, so much for the media coverage Jimbo was ...Oh well, so much for the media coverage Jimbo was going to get after his coronation as Labour branch officer...<br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30451727Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13009287345694705112014-12-12T13:23:09.050+00:002014-12-12T13:23:09.050+00:00Hopefully this is an example of the results achie...Hopefully this is an example of the results achieved by tactical voting from the unionists. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81108962345165559262014-12-12T13:08:22.681+00:002014-12-12T13:08:22.681+00:00Och Stoat, I was teasing man. LOL.Och Stoat, I was teasing man. LOL.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77832128102746554962014-12-12T12:40:50.821+00:002014-12-12T12:40:50.821+00:00You should be happy. Local election can just mean ...You should be happy. Local election can just mean that - local. Personalities can come into play in local elections rather than national elections. I presume the Independent is well known to take nearly a quarter of first preferences.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34341516674018162582014-12-12T12:27:23.027+00:002014-12-12T12:27:23.027+00:00I didn't say it was definitely going to occur ...I didn't say it was definitely going to occur that way, I was just raising the prospect. It's hard to argue against the SNP doing well in May given their leads in the polls, especially given how the unionist vote is divided. Though I have my doubt at just how useful local by-elections are in predicting results given all the local factors at play. Turnout in this election was down to 28% from 46% in 2012 so it's difficult see what the implications of a local contest that hardly anybody turned up for really are.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57994018835300444302014-12-12T12:20:28.770+00:002014-12-12T12:20:28.770+00:00It's always tricky when so-called "Indepe...It's always tricky when so-called "Independents" stand in an election. <br />Very low turn-out.<br />I'm just happy SNP won. <br />Moray, and Elgin north, have a fair amount of ex-RAF folk who have stayed on in the Lossie/Elgin area after leaving the service. Not natural SNP voters.<br />I was most happy with the first round results. FPTP in May, of course. Maybe I'm wrong about being so happy?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35575306504345149202014-12-12T12:19:58.106+00:002014-12-12T12:19:58.106+00:00The Labour first preference vote in Elgin North wa...The Labour first preference vote in Elgin North was down 15 points on 2012!<br /><br />SNP 38% (-5)<br />Independent 25% (+16)<br />Labour 15% (-15)<br />Tory 14% (-3)<br /><br />UKIP and Green (4% each) did not stand last time.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/DavidJFHalliday/status/543375900717625344<br /><br />Also worth reading this:<br /><br />http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/12/scotland-update-new-meaning-of-45-per.html?spref=twJamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62122830148485315362014-12-12T12:00:49.205+00:002014-12-12T12:00:49.205+00:00SNP won the election on the final round of transfe...SNP won the election on the final round of transfers.<br /><br />The result after the penultimate round was SNP 773, Independent 595 and Labour 368. Reid (SNP) won after the final round of transfers with 850 votes. It is perhaps notable that the SNP didn't pick up many transfers. That said, if there was tactical anti-SNP voting it was very inefficient.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/TheMorayCouncilJamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66938521182761479732014-12-12T11:33:39.405+00:002014-12-12T11:33:39.405+00:00Not just the #smithcommission, but also the politi...Not just the #smithcommission, but also the political/media response to it: "The Vow has been delivered"..."Scotland has been given home rule"... "Scotland is getting the greatest transfer of powers ever..." <br /><br />If you didn't realise the media and no campaign were out to deceive you before the referendum, you definitely do now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80223424658684898152014-12-12T11:23:45.142+00:002014-12-12T11:23:45.142+00:00Elgin North first preference results:
SNP 728 (38...Elgin North first preference results:<br /><br />SNP 728 (38%)<br />Independent - Cooper 472 (24%)<br />Labour 287 (15%)<br />Tory 273 (14%)<br />UKIP 81 (4%)<br />Greens 77 (4%)<br /><br />This will take a while (at least four rounds) because the SNP are 241 votes short of the quota (i.e. more than half of the total). The SNP vote share is down a bit on 2012 but that's a lot of candidates for a council by-election (vote splitting in more directions). I think Labour would have hoped to do better than 15%.<br />Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7266809288916002062014-12-12T10:55:49.138+00:002014-12-12T10:55:49.138+00:00forargyll.com's coverage of this one ought to ...forargyll.com's coverage of this one ought to be entertaining.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7805560410015760272014-12-12T10:06:50.259+00:002014-12-12T10:06:50.259+00:00Good grief, what a turn up that is! About the only...Good grief, what a turn up that is! About the only reason I look at PB these days is for the local election updates. Last night's had a hilariously poor summary of both Scottish elections, completely failing to understand AV by-elections in a multi-member STV ward. This was described as an SNP defence (in the sense that it was an SNP councillor's seat), but given the huge tory vote previously it was obvious that under AV for a single seat they were the defenders. I'd pretty much written off the result - so what a cheerful read this was this morning!Sandy Brownleehttp://www.brownlees.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40388664530482859192014-12-12T09:41:30.104+00:002014-12-12T09:41:30.104+00:00You beat me to it Skier LOL
Unionist alliance col...You beat me to it Skier LOL<br /><br />Unionist alliance collapses at first hurdle as voters realise they have differing opinionschalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33700789312881371492014-12-12T09:36:35.502+00:002014-12-12T09:36:35.502+00:00Absolutely. Important to bear in mind that curren...Absolutely. Important to bear in mind that current poll results - impressive as they are - are *before* any campaigning has been done.<br /><br />In the run up to GE2015, the impact of 100,000 battle hardened campaigners hitting the ground running will be seismic. Benjamin Stoddartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1319517560663924512014-12-12T09:23:45.686+00:002014-12-12T09:23:45.686+00:00This must be the tactical anti-SNP vote Stoat was ...This must be the tactical anti-SNP vote Stoat was on about at work presumably.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.com