tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5948229441091555775..comments2024-03-28T09:01:28.790+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Why Nicola Sturgeon would be wise at this stage not to completely rule out a second referendum in the next parliamentary termJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger64125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24263595938549852332014-09-25T22:04:37.675+01:002014-09-25T22:04:37.675+01:00Will there be an electoral pact next year between ...Will there be an electoral pact next year between the SNP and Labour for Independence to try to wipe out the Labour party in Scotland?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33925586551141977812014-09-25T18:30:41.979+01:002014-09-25T18:30:41.979+01:00"And the next time I'd like us to get neg..."And the next time I'd like us to get negative as fuck over what awaits us in the Union."<br /><br />I agree we should have had more of a balanced campaign.<br /><br />Including huge billboards with a comparison between Norway's oil fund and Scotland's oil fund.<br /><br />For any devolution settlement, the SNP should be pushing hard for a share of oil revenues, and devolved crown estate.<br /><br />The oil is running out apparently, so that shouldn't be a problem.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40936650489554740452014-09-25T15:23:43.638+01:002014-09-25T15:23:43.638+01:00One thing is for sure - there is no point even cal...One thing is for sure - there is no point even calling another referendum until polls consistently show yes with a large lead (c60-40) over a period of time. If the polls start showing a lead, the Scottish press should eventually follow... and then we will just have the BBC to worry about.Craig Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73296189522371922862014-09-25T13:29:05.587+01:002014-09-25T13:29:05.587+01:00ONE OF THE LOWEST PENSIONS IN THE EU with a photo ...ONE OF THE LOWEST PENSIONS IN THE EU with a photo of cameron,osborne,miliband and clegg all laughingchalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54818904791205995522014-09-25T13:14:15.220+01:002014-09-25T13:14:15.220+01:00Chalks is right about the lack of negative campaig...Chalks is right about the lack of negative campaigning. There should have been huge adverts "<b>Westminster ALREADY stole 2 years of your pension, don't let them steal the rest</b>" and similar.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61555517806971341042014-09-25T10:10:49.529+01:002014-09-25T10:10:49.529+01:00There will be another referendum in the next ten y...There will be another referendum in the next ten years.<br /><br />Look at what is coming up...45% already believe that Scotland is a country, it isn't a stretch to suggest we'd convince the necessary figures required to gain independence.<br /><br />Another Tory government we didn't vote for, an EU In/Out referendum where our votes are meaningless, voting for the SNP and gaining no new powers of worth.<br /><br />Massive cuts to the public services and our block grant. <br /><br />How on earth will another referendum NOT happen!?<br /><br />And the next time I'd like us to get negative as fuck over what awaits us in the Union.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66385067856493835442014-09-25T09:14:48.879+01:002014-09-25T09:14:48.879+01:00The 3rd Gulf War and the upcoming GE in 2015 is wh...The 3rd Gulf War and the upcoming GE in 2015 is where I will find the answers to all my problems. We as a United Kingdom are dysfunctional and as a military force we are insignificant to the wider world whoever thinks that we are taken seriously and have political clout are deluding themselves and others.John Thomsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26177334418627670862014-09-25T03:09:42.282+01:002014-09-25T03:09:42.282+01:00I think James pointed out in an earlier article th...<i>I think James pointed out in an earlier article that it was only ever the No side who said that a Yes vote would be "complete and binding". "There'll be no going back!" was one of the three or four sentences which comprised Darling's entire repertoire.</i><br /><br />This really is a fundamental of the argument and if the SNP were to explicitly rule out another referendum they would lose support from myself and I would think significant numbers of others.<br /><br />The Independence movement needs some honesty here. Loyalists and WW2 Unionists are never going to be persuaded. But they are declining cohorts.<br /><br />The main consideration is only those who voted Yes (for whom there is a clear appetite for another referendum as soon as politically possible) and the remaining portion of the population perhaps only 15% of the total who weren''t persuaded.<br /><br />But Yes only needs 200k out of this cohort of maybe 600k people to change their mind. Why should a timetable of 5 years not be realistic for this to happen ? The shitstorm is brewing.<br /><br />Scottish budget is facing cuts of over 15% of its budget<br />Westminster cannot supress Oil Revenues any longer, they are desperate for that revenue. If 2016 is an £8bn to £10bn return that's huge campaigning ground.<br />The Devo process at Weswtminster is fatally flawed and will fail.<br />The EU Referendum is still looming large.<br /><br />Ruling out another referendum in the 2016-21 Holyrood parliament would be a phenomenal mistake and that's why the Unionists and their media chums are so desperate for such a statement. It's also why Salmond stepped aside. I'm confident.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27229589599077556192014-09-25T02:14:54.919+01:002014-09-25T02:14:54.919+01:00tl;dr:
If Westminster sovereignty has been denie...tl;dr: <br /><br />If Westminster sovereignty has been denied by a referendum, its refusal of another indyref becomes easier to ignore. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82762312491576511842014-09-25T02:10:57.955+01:002014-09-25T02:10:57.955+01:00"Your proposed questions present a false dich..."Your proposed questions present a false dichotomy. The analogue of "the will of the Scottish people" is "the will of the British people", and the analogue of "Westminster" is "Holyrood"".<br /><br />Not so, I'm afraid. Currently sovereignty lies with Westminster, we can agree, but pre-1707 it lay with the Scottish people. <br /><br />Just one summary from many across the web:<br /><br />"Nonetheless, a distinguished lineage of Scottish jurists, politicians and historians has made the point that the idea of popular sovereignty can be found in Scottish political thought from the Declaration of Arbroath in 1320. A consensus has emerged within the Scots intelligentsia that since 1320 the country's indigenous constitutional tradition has been one of popular, rather than parliamentary, sovereignty. In other words, before 1707, sovereignty resided in the people - and it has never ceased to do so."<br /><br />http://www.historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/the-union-and-the-constitution<br /><br />So the Sovereignty referendum would be on the question of whether sovereignty should revert to the Scottish people, who were never given the choice over it being given to Westminster. (And that's without getting into the argument above that sovereignty *still* resides with the Scottish people).<br /><br />In many if not most countries around the world, sovereignty lies with the people, not with any particular institution. So the issue in the referendum would be whether or not Scotland joins these countries and reverts to its pre-1707 status.<br /><br /><br />"In any case, what would the result of a "sovereignty" referendum actually mean? You say there would have to be a separate independence referendum, so it sounds like the sovereignty one wouldn't have any practical consequences at all."<br /><br />It would be a purely tactical move, a consultative referendum of the type James Discusses in OP. The point would simply be to add more leverage for (extremely unlikely) UDI or (much more likely) another indyref. <br /><br />It's a question of setting the ducks in a row:<br /><br />-- Majority of WM MPs in 2015.<br />-- Majority Holyrood admin in 2016<br />-- Scotland's will denied in the EU ref in 2017<br />-- The sovereignty of the Scottish people, and no longer Westminster, legitimised by a referendum.<br /><br />These ducks would give Holyrood a stronger case for calling another indyref toward the end of the decade. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62036073965924091582014-09-25T01:26:23.184+01:002014-09-25T01:26:23.184+01:00@Simon
"It illegitimises our moral argument t...@Simon<br />"It illegitimises our moral argument to suggest that a YES vote is complete and binding while a NO vote (over the entire breadth of the record electorate) is not."<br /><br />I think James pointed out in an earlier article that it was only ever the No side who said that a Yes vote would be "complete and binding". "There'll be no going back!" was one of the three or four sentences which comprised Darling's entire repertoire.<br /><br />The implication was clearly supposed to be that it was "safe" to vote No, because you can always try again later if you change your mind: but if you vote Yes, that's it, no second chances. The Yes campaign's decision not to confront that argument was, to my mind, one of their major failures.<br /><br />In an independent Scotland, there would have been absolutely nothing stopping the Labour party calling for a referendum on rejoining the Union and being elected on such a platform. What Yes person has ever said that this would be illegitimate?keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34828564469915405012014-09-25T01:14:09.521+01:002014-09-25T01:14:09.521+01:00This article is clasping at straws and making the ...This article is clasping at straws and making the indy side look bad. You use the phrase "settled will" and scoff at the idea that a NO vote might be settled will. If we had won the referendum, we would have thought that the vote reflected the settled will and that the debate over independence had been won. It illegitimises our moral argument to suggest that a YES vote is complete and binding while a NO vote (over the entire breadth of the record electorate) is not.<br /><br />We need to find the next battle line, but we also need to understand that another referendum doesn't act as that battle line without a damn good reason as to why we're having it (and "we lost, so we want another crack" isn't a reason).Simonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64946171310851761452014-09-25T00:48:28.163+01:002014-09-25T00:48:28.163+01:00In your example, we'd be leaving the EU becaus...In your example, we'd be leaving the EU because the UK electorate voted to do so. The constitutional crisis would arise because the will of the people of Scotland would conflict with the will of the people of the UK. What's Westminster got to do with it?<br /><br />Your proposed questions present a false dichotomy. The analogue of "the will of the Scottish people" is "the will of the British people", and the analogue of "Westminster" is "Holyrood".<br /><br />In any case, what would the result of a "sovereignty" referendum actually mean? You say there would have to be a separate independence referendum, so it sounds like the sovereignty one wouldn't have any practical consequences at all.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27453036444487182082014-09-25T00:34:16.392+01:002014-09-25T00:34:16.392+01:00keaton --
And there I thought I was being reasona...keaton --<br /><br />And there I thought I was being reasonable by not including "your Satanic London masters". ;-)<br /><br />What wording do you think would be okay, then?<br /><br />Surely it can't be too hard to word it. Common sense tells us what the two alternatives are. <br /><br />And however it's worded I just can't see us losing it if everyone knows that one of the options, no matter how it's worded, really means Westminster.<br /><br />"The majority will/decision/ of the Scottish people/population/electorate<br /><br />OR<br /><br />"The House of Commons"<br />"Elected representatives in Parliament"<br />"Democratically-elected MPs"<br /><br />I'd be happy to campaign against any of those. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80231226174430021152014-09-25T00:01:26.251+01:002014-09-25T00:01:26.251+01:00Sean - a slightly loaded ballot you're proposi...Sean - a slightly loaded ballot you're proposing there. If the Electoral Commission weren't fans of having "agree" in the question, I wonder what they'd make of your suggestion!keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4252811775298488542014-09-24T23:19:19.222+01:002014-09-24T23:19:19.222+01:00The fundamentalist approach is counter-productive....The fundamentalist approach is counter-productive. The SNP would be more likely to lose some of the seats they have (most of which are in what were strong areas for No) than gain any. Thereby killing any pressure for increased devolution, let alone a second push for independence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59073464248781468442014-09-24T23:04:39.695+01:002014-09-24T23:04:39.695+01:00Correct they can do that Anon.I have suggested the...Correct they can do that Anon.I have suggested the gradualist approach is now counter productive. Stand for what you believe in and tell people what they are voting for if they vote SNP. A Westminster majority carries the mandate to declare independence as the public were clear of this when voting SNP. Time to be bold and take a punt old fashioned win or bust.November13https://www.blogger.com/profile/03249463580152897462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30812682565091254422014-09-24T22:51:57.820+01:002014-09-24T22:51:57.820+01:00Why don't the SNP simply state a vote for us i...Why don't the SNP simply state a vote for us is a vote for independence in their manifesto? Once they get a majority in either Westminster or Holyrood, no need for a referendum.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32728487845418267402014-09-24T22:40:31.939+01:002014-09-24T22:40:31.939+01:00I think the Brit Nats being wiped out in Scotland ...I think the Brit Nats being wiped out in Scotland at the 2015 Brit GE would constitute a material change of circumstances. Is there any real need for any kind of Referendum after that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33986961495293761092014-09-24T21:15:28.253+01:002014-09-24T21:15:28.253+01:00The Edinburgh Agreement was a one-off, but that do...The Edinburgh Agreement was a one-off, but that doesn't prevent any Scottish Govt pursuing a consultative referendum, as was originally the plan.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52665859363824000532014-09-24T21:15:22.387+01:002014-09-24T21:15:22.387+01:00I think James is correct. The SNP need to keep the...I think James is correct. The SNP need to keep the option of having a referendum in their manifesto, but should couch it in terms of waiting for a material change in circumstances. This is more important than the precise time interval. <br /><br />e.g. Most of the Labour Party changed their mind about devolution within 10 years of the 1979 referendum. The material change was the way Thatcher governed the UK generally and Scotland in particular while having a diminishing level of support. Nobody said to Labour people in the late 80s, "it's only ~10 years since we last had a referendum on this".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69202385289132369272014-09-24T20:55:34.310+01:002014-09-24T20:55:34.310+01:00Picture the following:
2015: 30+ Yes Alliance MPs...Picture the following:<br /><br />2015: 30+ Yes Alliance MPs elected.<br /><br />2016: Majority SNP/Green Govt elected, perhaps even on 50+% of the vote.<br /><br />2017: The UK votes to leave the EU while Scotland votes to stay in.<br /><br />2017: In response to this unprecedented denial of the will of the Scottish people Holyrood organises a snap SOVEREIGNTY referendum.<br /><br />The referendum question is something like this:<br /><br />Do you believe that sovereignty should lie with<br /><br />The will of the Scottish population?<br /><br />Or<br /><br />The will of Westminster?<br /><br />That would put the London media and politicians in quite a bind. They either ignore the referendum as 'invalid' (they'd be concentrating anyway on the EU exit) and risk it becoming a massacre, or they go red in tooth and claw again, but this time defending Westminster versus the will of the Scottish people.<br /><br />Imagine Unionists having to go door to door defending not the Union but specifically Westminster.<br /><br />Imagine Yessers going door to door arguing against Westminster and for the will of the Scottish people.<br /><br />I see such a referendum becoming a rout.<br /><br />So we'd have a situation where pro-indy parties have a majority of Scottish WM MPs; a majority Govt in Holyrood; Westminster trying to yank Scotland out of the EU; and the backing of the electorate for taking back sovereignty from Westminster.<br /><br />In such circumstances UDI might just be possible.<br /><br />What would certainly be feasible is UDS -- Unilateral Declaration of SOVEREIGNTY. Sovereignty declared as lying once more with the Scottish people and not Westminster.<br /><br />Then just call an indy referendum whenever the time is right.Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79488422704186658212014-09-24T20:41:43.590+01:002014-09-24T20:41:43.590+01:00Are the Scottish government able to call a second ...Are the Scottish government able to call a second referendum or would they need permission from Westminster? <br /><br />Was the Edinburgh agreement a one time only deal?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7781723590810146622014-09-24T20:22:18.597+01:002014-09-24T20:22:18.597+01:00Your blog is the real deal - none of the others re...Your blog is the real deal - none of the others really impress me at all but at least here you deal with facts and info - I will give a donation at the end of the month (even though frankly I'd promised myself not to donate to any more pro-indy things). You do the business and it is deeply appreciated. You have done a qtand up job, sir. It would be a valuable service for you to continue but I think you should ask foe more than the minimum - the minimum is no way to do business. I think you'd be surprised at the good will.Steviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18226832161404154663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27624562008517380952014-09-24T20:06:45.090+01:002014-09-24T20:06:45.090+01:00Talk Constitution John Drummond, Edinburgh
Labour...<a href="http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/events/3423955" rel="nofollow">Talk Constitution John Drummond, Edinburgh</a><br /><br />Labour in Scotland we are better together to protect the NHS meanwhile Labour in rest of UK see Mick above.<br /><br />Foundation hospitals massive PFI deals under Labour set up the NHS to fail by design.cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.com