tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post54084102227361556..comments2024-03-28T10:04:06.673+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Poll of Polls – a longer-term perspectiveJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger113125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80517092202126450342014-09-16T20:35:02.215+01:002014-09-16T20:35:02.215+01:00I realise that the following may not be entirely m...I realise that the following may not be entirely methodologically sound in this talented company but, worried about the No bias in the over 65 age group, I made some assumptions to help me come to a conclusion.<br /><br />The assumptions: <br />a) Over 65s vote 70-30 in favour of No (worst case)<br />b) 80% of over 65s vote<br />c) 20% of electorate is over 65 (less of an assumption, more of a fact)<br />d) 80% of under 65s vote<br /><br />The Conclusion: the arithmetic based on these assumptions means that the rest of the electorate (all groups together under 65) need to vote 55-45% Yes-No to balance the No votes of the older cohort to reach an overall 50% of the total vote.<br /><br />That wee exercise has actually boosted my confidence again. Comments from polling analysts with a more nuanced perspective appreciated!<br />Ian Bairdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62109545810465909482014-09-16T20:09:08.043+01:002014-09-16T20:09:08.043+01:00Sportsbook? Exchange?
Could someone please explai...Sportsbook? Exchange?<br /><br />Could someone please explain what these are?<br />Sunshine on Crieffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48507266881890794612014-09-16T16:35:20.590+01:002014-09-16T16:35:20.590+01:00Apologies if already been posted, but I think this...Apologies if already been posted, but I think this TNS poll at 5pm is the view from England and Welsh voters.<br /><br />Survation tonight though - and if anything theKevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55427651533257927912014-09-16T16:06:53.240+01:002014-09-16T16:06:53.240+01:00"Perhaps not surprisingly, there are Tory don..."Perhaps not surprisingly, there are Tory donors on the Betfair board."<br /><br />Unfortunately, business owners do use their political leanings to influence the vote.<br /><br />This could be the equivalent of a large donation.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31229244006777262612014-09-16T15:58:03.707+01:002014-09-16T15:58:03.707+01:00Link to the twitter poll numbers;
https://twitter...Link to the twitter poll numbers;<br /><br />https://twitter.com/twittprognosisGeorgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50374490638923154962014-09-16T15:57:16.434+01:002014-09-16T15:57:16.434+01:00Pantone, you're looking at it as an "eith...Pantone, you're looking at it as an "either-or" though, YES should have appealed to both tory and labour voters. YES managed to get the greens on board, even though the SNPs economic plan is to sell as much oil for burning as possible, so it's not like there's no room for contradictions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59777411200988614922014-09-16T15:55:18.517+01:002014-09-16T15:55:18.517+01:00And lets not forget a new Nation at peace and not ...And lets not forget a new Nation at peace and not sending its sons and daughters to die because of lies from Westminster politicians. <br /><br />A YES vote means fewer sons and daughters of Scotland will perish is some forsaken land because of a pack of lies.<br /><br />A YES vote means trident sails south and Scotland is less of a terrorist target.<br /><br />I only wish I could vote YES but I live south of the border, I look forward to the day when I receive my Scottish Passport though.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24123126688063723432014-09-16T15:52:17.728+01:002014-09-16T15:52:17.728+01:00Who they?
twittprognosis/eu @twittprognosis 1h
...Who they?<br /><br />twittprognosis/eu @twittprognosis 1h<br />24-hours poll: We asked people about #indyref in the last 24 hours:<br /><br />#YesScotland: Yes: 54.91%<br />#BetterTogether: No: 45.09%<br /><br />Sample: 1,534Dalriadan39noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49784428312335113742014-09-16T15:40:26.459+01:002014-09-16T15:40:26.459+01:00If Yes loses, I really don't think attempting ...If Yes loses, I really don't think attempting to appeal to Labour voters rather than Tory ones is going to go down in history as one of its mistakes.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78592994745839687962014-09-16T15:35:58.555+01:002014-09-16T15:35:58.555+01:00Anonymous: There was never a plan to win over tory...Anonymous: There was never a plan to win over tory voters.<br /><br />One of the major reasons for the referendum even existing in the first place is because of the democratic deficit: Scotland getting tory governments it didn't vote for. Why would we imagine the tories voting against that?<br /><br />However, just to let you know, I only know 4 tories, two already voted no, one a definite yes, the fourth totally scunnered by Westminster's lies, she says she'll now stay at home. 33.3% tory yes in my own wee sample isn't bad going tbh, more than I was expecting. <br /><br />And there are plenty English Scots who are voting yes because they believe in securing a social democracy for their children's futures, not the neo-liberal hell hole on offer from London. See English Scots for Yes for more details.<br /><br />Pantone300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82617796418383619622014-09-16T15:34:46.194+01:002014-09-16T15:34:46.194+01:00Perhaps not surprisingly, there are Tory donors on...Perhaps not surprisingly, there are Tory donors on the Betfair board.Callumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00985135231318968429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79292553057045011752014-09-16T15:34:13.809+01:002014-09-16T15:34:13.809+01:00Indeed James, these Londoners really never learn d...Indeed James, these Londoners really never learn do they?<br /><br />Ach well, might mean that no voters don't bother voting.<br /><br />Can only see these things pissing off the yes vote morechalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71473943820757875262014-09-16T15:31:44.096+01:002014-09-16T15:31:44.096+01:00Wish I'd also put a no bet on at Betfair as we...Wish I'd also put a no bet on at Betfair as well as my yes bet. That way I'd win money from them twice!Craig Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77008178770606535512014-09-16T15:31:18.050+01:002014-09-16T15:31:18.050+01:00As an aside, if Betfair want their "predictio...As an aside, if Betfair want their "prediction" to come true, they're not doing themselves any favours with the promoted tweet they're using to announce the decision, which shows Cameron as the "victor" against the backdrop of a Union Jack.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66851032255075626492014-09-16T15:30:33.929+01:002014-09-16T15:30:33.929+01:00Another concern troll repeating the BT lie that An... Another concern troll repeating the BT lie that Anti-Westminster is anti-English.<br /><br /> Yes would be winning at a canter if the entire media in Scotland was not foreign owned, foreign run and funded by foreigners with an agenda of opposing democracy in Scotland.<br /><br /> Has there ever been a revolution that didn't start with people seizing control of the presses, radio or TV stations to get their message across?<br /><br /> Are you proud to live in a country which would make North Korean state TV blush?<br /><br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3348815660919102782014-09-16T15:27:54.357+01:002014-09-16T15:27:54.357+01:00Betty : I presume they have now closed the book on...Betty : I presume they have now closed the book on No but are still taking bets on Yes. If they haven't closed the book on No, then obviously the pay-out only applies to bets that were placed before the announcement.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72077251229892897112014-09-16T15:26:05.136+01:002014-09-16T15:26:05.136+01:00I don't understand what the Betfair bookies pa...I don't understand what the Betfair bookies paying out means? <br /><br />Does this mean I can go and place a bet on no winning and it will pay out right away even if it turns out that yes wins? <br /><br />If that is the case, where do I sign up?Betty the Firstnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42846404190738543672014-09-16T15:22:59.240+01:002014-09-16T15:22:59.240+01:00If/when YES loses, it's because the campaign s...If/when YES loses, it's because the campaign set out at the start pissing off about a quarter of the electorate - 17% tory voters, 10% english born - with their endless socialist worker keening about thatcherite english tories grinding scotland into the sub-soil. Alex at least realised he'd better substitute "westminster" or "london" for "english" but many haven't. If you'd persuaded half those voters to go with YES you'd have won at a canter, even if it was dangling a carrot like promising an EU referendum they'd never win.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36500517604470057752014-09-16T15:22:06.634+01:002014-09-16T15:22:06.634+01:00I believe Survation now holds the distinction of b...I believe Survation now holds the distinction of being the most No-friendly pollster, so I'm not expecting much there!keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84206476513291115022014-09-16T15:21:13.180+01:002014-09-16T15:21:13.180+01:00Yeah it's a bit late for polls to swing to Yes...Yeah it's a bit late for polls to swing to YesChris Knowlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29170249478447219652014-09-16T15:15:22.057+01:002014-09-16T15:15:22.057+01:00I don't think the polls will show much change....I don't think the polls will show much change.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86776788854422335392014-09-16T15:14:41.493+01:002014-09-16T15:14:41.493+01:00Survation poll for the Daily Heil out tonight.Survation poll for the Daily Heil out tonight.Callumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00985135231318968429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7509715865803034782014-09-16T15:14:17.175+01:002014-09-16T15:14:17.175+01:00Ladbrokes just shortened their Yes number. Betfair...Ladbrokes just shortened their Yes number. Betfair are looking for - and getting - publicity. Ignore it.Callumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00985135231318968429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64558040838609977422014-09-16T15:13:24.313+01:002014-09-16T15:13:24.313+01:00Don't say you were not warned.
I remember G... Don't say you were not warned.<br /><br /> I remember Goebbels Brown telling us that he (as PM) would do anything to prevent Independence. I doubt the motives have changed now the Blue LabourTory is PM.<br /> If that means spending Taxes on placing bets to alter odds, rigging opinion polls or stuffing boxes full of fraudulent votes they have done such before and will do it again.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48579635866684047212014-09-16T15:11:24.446+01:002014-09-16T15:11:24.446+01:00I expect the polls will show a NO lead, after the ...I expect the polls will show a NO lead, after the huge amount of scare stories all week, plus huge media bias.<br /><br />They are trying to terrify people to vote against self-government, and unfortunately some people fall for it.<br /><br />But on the day, anything is possible. <br /><br />We could very well have a final YES Surge, when people see the ballot paper, and know they have a chance to make history.<br /><br />I still think that, deep down, no-one really wants to vote against their country's freedom.<br /><br />For that reason, I reckon a lot of swithering voters will decide to take a leap of faith !<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com