tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5381007580339773431..comments2024-03-29T08:35:23.400+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: The mass canvass resultsJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55578734328004296162014-06-27T14:01:36.374+01:002014-06-27T14:01:36.374+01:001997 Q1 (parliament) = 74.3%
1999-2013 Forced cho...1997 Q1 (parliament) = 74.3%<br /><br />1999-2013 Forced choice national identity ('pick your nation/country') = 74.2% Scottish<br /><br />1997 Q2 (max indy on offer) = 63.5%<br /><br />Scottish only census natID = 62.4%<br /><br />These numbers are not coincidence; you find them everywhere, from trust in Holyrood, support for Devo max, to Scottish government satisfaction...<br /><br />>60% for Devo max vs 25% or so against. This is 'Scottish' vs 'British'.<br /><br />Of course there is crossover, but this is how these things work globally.<br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9644325600753651372014-06-27T12:19:11.211+01:002014-06-27T12:19:11.211+01:00Here are the results for the 1997 referendum. I s...Here are the results for the 1997 referendum. I suppose the second question is closest to the independence question. I'm not suggesting the absolute numbers will be the same, but it might give us an idea of what to expect by way of demographic variation?<br />http://www.scotlink.com/scottish-referendum/scottish-parliament-results.htmsmerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71745200336360896762014-06-27T01:45:11.387+01:002014-06-27T01:45:11.387+01:00Very interesting.
I don't know if we are ahea...Very interesting.<br /><br />I don't know if we are ahead yet, but it's certainly a lot closer than the likes of YouGov etco. <br /><br />That Courier Roadshow thing is very interesting. Near enough EVERY poll has shown an affluent area vs a working class/Labour voting area the numbers are huge. Newport v Tayport/St Andrews v Cardenden/Arbroath v Kirriemuir, etc...<br /><br />I can't predict the refrendum, but I bet you 100% Glasgow, Dundee will both vote Yes. Edinburgh and Aberdeen, No. <br /><br />Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36678478666641589722014-06-26T20:26:47.495+01:002014-06-26T20:26:47.495+01:00Maybe.Maybe.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37993360248365164202014-06-26T19:52:10.648+01:002014-06-26T19:52:10.648+01:00I'm wondering if that might be a reference to ...I'm wondering if that might be a reference to the Courier 'ping pong' poll, which showed 58% Yes in Rosyth. It's hard to believe that Rennie would have given away details of private canvassing or polling unless it was favourable for No.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14653235907814210282014-06-26T19:08:18.971+01:002014-06-26T19:08:18.971+01:00http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-...http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/westminster-advisers-doubt-about-indyref-outcome-despite-no-vote-poll-lead.1403611312<br /><br />Third last post at the moment, from Alasdair MacKenzie, Livi Vlge.<br /><br />"Even Willie Rennie had to concede at the weekend that canvassing in Fife was showing 60:40 YES, even in the Labour heartland of Rosyth. And that despite all of the "no more RN work" threats."<br /><br />I thought there were other less specific mentions of BT polls but that's all I can see now.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61729938082374488812014-06-26T14:28:08.955+01:002014-06-26T14:28:08.955+01:00I can't find the article at the moment but I m...I can't find the article at the moment but I might be able to get it out of my browser history at home. Actually, it might have been Willie Rennie who was said to have been forced to admit this.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19848116723865593132014-06-26T11:56:09.417+01:002014-06-26T11:56:09.417+01:00I think in my case the difference in response to c...<br />I think in my case the difference in response to canvassers and whether I would tell a white lie or not is due to my level of commitment - I'm not that bothered about party politics but I'm passionate about indy. I can only speak for myself of course.smerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63259390924910697132014-06-26T11:45:27.444+01:002014-06-26T11:45:27.444+01:00@Anonymous - well maybe I'm just a honest guy....@Anonymous - well maybe I'm just a honest guy. ;)smerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72111066876426995432014-06-26T11:31:35.376+01:002014-06-26T11:31:35.376+01:00smerral - I don't see why people would be less...smerral - I don't see why people would be less likely to tell a white lie to referendum canvassers than to party political ones. One thing I have noticed, though, is that people tend to be less tribal with canvassers on this issue: you definitely encounter less hostility than when you're campaigning for a party.<br /><br />braco - I'm sure the fact that they're doing housing schemes helps, but the figures seem quite a bit better than the main pollsters find even in the DE economic category.<br /><br />Rolfe - Do we have a source other than comments in the Herald? Why did BT admit to this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39817163854529116342014-06-26T11:02:16.366+01:002014-06-26T11:02:16.366+01:00"There was a string of comments on a Herald a..."There was a string of comments on a Herald article yesterday"<br /><br />Link for this? Sounds interesting.commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30629751589402560942014-06-26T11:02:16.147+01:002014-06-26T11:02:16.147+01:00"There was a string of comments on a Herald a..."There was a string of comments on a Herald article yesterday"<br /><br />Link for this? Sounds interesting.commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21748278907393300302014-06-26T10:52:11.112+01:002014-06-26T10:52:11.112+01:00Lot of good comments here - I agree canvassing is ...Lot of good comments here - I agree canvassing is not simply about gauging opinion. <br /><br />As for the results - as other people have said they don't see unreasonable given that it's a specific demographic subset. In fact looking at recent surveys they aren't so far out of line with these results.commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43882664994381048892014-06-26T10:20:04.090+01:002014-06-26T10:20:04.090+01:00There was a string of comments on a Herald article...There was a string of comments on a Herald article yesterday pointing out that Better Together were forced to admit that their private canvass results were also showing a Yes lead.<br /><br />Which is kind of interesting in context.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25913004845801956992014-06-26T08:34:09.007+01:002014-06-26T08:34:09.007+01:00Writing from the point of view of a potential canv...Writing from the point of view of a potential canvassee, I think there is a difference between canvassing for a political party and canvassing for the referendum. I can well imagine myself politely giving encouragement to a party I do not intend to vote for, smilingly accepting their leaflets and nodding gratefully. (This is less likely at the moment I admit due to the imminence of the referendum, but let's imagine this is a few years back before all the present stooshie)But the referendum itself is an entirely different matter. There is NO WAY I would hedge when it comes to telling a Better Together canvasser that I am a YES voter. And I would imagine NO voters would behave the same way regarding YES canvassers. I'm with S_S on this one in that I think these numbers may not be too far from the truth. At any rate it's a big well done to all involved and much respect for the people willing to do this. Keep up the good work!smerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17011856783721637322014-06-25T23:12:11.445+01:002014-06-25T23:12:11.445+01:00AllanLachlan,
for me it's not really about the...AllanLachlan,<br />for me it's not really about the YES/NO numbers. Much more important is the high visibility of and obvious attempt by the YES 'grassroots' at interaction with the actual electorate. Unmediated.<br /><br />That's campaigning which causes ripples and forms the background noise very important to making the 'debate' unavoidable and (eventually) fevered come the final few days or weeks. <br /><br /> <br />That's the atmosphere in which the NOthanks campaign's non engagement policy falls apart and actually becomes hugely damaging to their credibility. <br /><br />So thanks to everyone who took part in it on Sunday. I believe it's incredibly important and very much appreciated. Great work and well inspiring!<br /><br />braco Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14336527069188031192014-06-25T22:28:37.367+01:002014-06-25T22:28:37.367+01:00I have to say that I don't really trust canvas...I have to say that I don't really trust canvassing figures either. Everybody is wearing Yes badges and nice smiles. Some people don't want to disappoint us. Some people say they "don't feel comfortable discussing the issue" so we record them as having refused to answer when really we have a good idea that they are Noes. Many Yes voters just say yes with a smile but we get a such huge range of reactions from the others which makes the figures dubious. Canvassing really only has much value to me when we get to talk to someone who is a soft No or undecided.AllanLachlanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03174569192986954298noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75356764960957479842014-06-25T22:16:43.072+01:002014-06-25T22:16:43.072+01:00Anon,
housing schemes and less than three months t...Anon,<br />housing schemes and less than three months to go?<br /><br />bracoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42285096093593833622014-06-25T21:33:26.786+01:002014-06-25T21:33:26.786+01:00People were clear about what they intended. Yes vo...<i>People were clear about what they intended. Yes voters said it without prompting, the Don't Knows and Noes too.</i><br /><br />If the fact that the canvassers were overtly Yes wasn't a factor, what on earth explains the huge disparity between the RIC result and virtually every poll since 2011? I'm genuinely interested in theories.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78078950834121226722014-06-25T20:35:22.210+01:002014-06-25T20:35:22.210+01:00I was taking part in the mass canvas in Aberdeen a...I was taking part in the mass canvas in Aberdeen and I would definitely say that the important caveat "of those who were actually in on a Sunday afternoon and were willing to answer the door" should definitely be applied. Not sure what the demographic repurcussions of that are! A fair few folk were clearly in but didnae answer their door which makes me wonder if they were no voters who spied our badges.<br /><br />Still a positive figure overall I think. I know others had different experience but when I asked people to place themselves on a scale of 1-10 (10 being yes) it was very polarised. Most of those with an opinion answered 1 or 10.Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1863737075833096312014-06-25T19:25:28.064+01:002014-06-25T19:25:28.064+01:00Who knows. All I know is that the only time I'...Who knows. All I know is that the only time I've ever been canvassed at my doorstep I pretended to be undecided because they were Labour and I didn't want the awkwardness of declaring myself an SNP voter.commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58918228007963817902014-06-25T19:22:01.965+01:002014-06-25T19:22:01.965+01:00People were clear about what they intended. Yes vo...People were clear about what they intended. Yes voters said it without prompting, the Don't Knows and Noes too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36899292206877193682014-06-25T18:33:10.891+01:002014-06-25T18:33:10.891+01:00Or, what happened is these people:
No 29.5%
Are ...Or, what happened is these people:<br /><br />No 29.5%<br /><br />Are <i>actual</i> definite No status quo, largely in agreement with people who say they are definite No in polls. This is pretty much what TNS get door knocking.<br /><br />In polls, a group of No later say, if asked, that they are actually still open to changing their intention / are not definite Nos. This makes them DKs rather than Nos. They also support devo max and natID as primarily or only Scottish.<br /><br />Maybe they feel more comfortable with a Yes person at the door (who they understand and sympathise with given they want all but independence and would actually vote for indy if it's the Tories etc), compared to when a 'big polling company' asks them all their details etc and they're not sure where those details might end up (UK Government? Better Together?).<br /><br />- 'Don't know' to Yes<br />- 'No (but might still change my mind if you ask this)' to Pollsters<br /><br />Et voila.<br /><br />While the Yes is somewhat high, it's not <i>that</i> high. Panelbase just got 40% Yes.<br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72935919600741044082014-06-25T18:04:51.763+01:002014-06-25T18:04:51.763+01:00I took part in the mass canvass in Edinburgh and I...I took part in the mass canvass in Edinburgh and I can report that I saw no evidence of people saying what we wanted to hear. Quite the reverse.<br /><br />The people who said they were Yes were ALL very definite about it, hardly allowing us to introduce ourselves before stating that they were definitely Yes with handshakes and smiling all round.<br /><br />Undecideds tended to say they were No, but . . . <br /><br />Nos were quite emphatic saying that they didn't want to answer questions.<br /><br />We encountered a Polish man and a Canadian woman who were emphatic Nos.Andrew Mortonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05562143171249446260noreply@blogger.com