tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5300223525293931654..comments2024-03-29T01:33:01.670+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: The alternative referendumJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79315723795124073342014-11-18T22:02:04.312+00:002014-11-18T22:02:04.312+00:00The 2014 referendum was not for the UK union but a...The 2014 referendum was not for the UK union but against breaking it and leaving the UK and EU (as we were told by the UK govt).<br />Scotland is a party to two unions, the EU and UK. Our law is set by both unions. <br />If we vote to stay in the EU (while the UK leaves) then we have two inconsistent desires from the sovereign population of Scotland.<br />To me that lets our govt in Holyrood decide which is the most important however they may decide to punt it to the people again as Sturgeon has hinted.<br /><br />Btw not all of our foreign policy decisions are made in Westminster (some happen in Brussels) so this becomes an internal matter for the EU. 5 million EU citizens being stripped of their citizenship against their democratically expressed will.<br /><br /><br />OK that's the theoretical justification, now the cold politics. If England wants to leave it will be advantageous to the EU to weaken it and reduce the loss by keeping Scotland in. We will have the full force of the EU in gaining international recognition. There will be for the first time a clear choice between the two unions were are party to.grimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3284442836180305142014-11-18T15:29:00.319+00:002014-11-18T15:29:00.319+00:00braco,
We already are a nation and have been sinc...braco,<br /><br />We already are a nation and have been since we first took form as a distinct polity all those many hundreds of years ago. If we are, hypothetically that is, to go down this road then we should have clear nomenclature that differentiates Scotland from the rUK.Phil Lawrencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12929452799095590860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40858003901774524822014-11-18T13:42:42.279+00:002014-11-18T13:42:42.279+00:00The electorate clearly want devo max over the stat...The electorate clearly want devo max over the status quo by a large margin. We know Westminster will not deliver it. However the SNP now have to flog the devo max horse until it is demonstrably dead, the media repeatedly report it as being so, and every low information voter in Scotland is well aware of the fact.<br /> <br />I am not sure how long that will take, but 2016 strikes me as too soon. The 2020 election seems a more realistic timescale to start hammering home the failure to gain any kind of devo max, though in the current rapidly moving times, who knows where the pieces will be then? The electorate might well be scunnered with the SNP in Holyrood by then...Craig Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86261993989302942502014-11-18T12:21:33.459+00:002014-11-18T12:21:33.459+00:00Phil,
What's wrong with 'Nation'?
bra...Phil,<br />What's wrong with 'Nation'?<br /><br />bracoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13517067319525120022014-11-18T10:32:11.080+00:002014-11-18T10:32:11.080+00:00I've been considering the Channel Islands or I...I've been considering the Channel Islands or Isle of Man models since the post-referendum bounce began. There's a lot of mileage in such a scheme but it would mean completely unhitching the electoral wagon from Westminster altogether which would be fought against tooth and nail by every colour of Tory within Scotland but might not necessarily be so unattractive for the Conservatives in London.<br /><br />The nomenclature of such a step is fraught though. The Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are British Crown Dependencies so that might not sit too well. The only other extant label is British Overseas Territory which is inappropriate as we are not overseas! However the obligations and rights are not so far away from what we might aspire to in the short/medium term.<br /><br />Maybe it could be time to dip into the recent past and resurrect the concept of a Dominion. The Dominion of Scotland. Not too awful for the time being.Phil Lawrencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12929452799095590860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66277839380431391662014-11-18T00:21:58.914+00:002014-11-18T00:21:58.914+00:00Well as he said "the bottom line is", bu...Well as he said "the bottom line is", but he didn't say why. The "permission" for the referendum expires on 31st Dec, but then so does the permission itself. The only way it's then relevant is effectively as a precedent. Written on the 1st Oct I think he was still in the post-NO doldrums "it's all over", similar for his views on the futility of Smith. I posted "cheer up", but also this URL with a who's who of constitutional law people signed to it. Before the S30 but still relevant I think:<br /><br />http://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2012/01/31/gavin-anderson-et-al-the-independence-referendum-legality-and-the-contested-constitution-widening-the-debate/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77602115866879479202014-11-17T23:54:09.088+00:002014-11-17T23:54:09.088+00:00Keaton, reading your posts I am not sure I underst...Keaton, reading your posts I am not sure I understand what it is you think is the best course for us to take. Are you against Devo max? Why do you fear the No campaign so much? They won the independence referendum, but remember they needed the full power of the British state to win, and even then they very nearly completely blew it. Do you want us to give up completely? muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19223472631626745742014-11-17T23:12:33.629+00:002014-11-17T23:12:33.629+00:00Presented in those terms, obviously, they'd go...Presented in those terms, obviously, they'd go for devo max. But that isn't how it would be presented. Project Fear 2.0 would attempt to persuade us that we owe our existence to English subsidy, and that if we had to rely solely on our own revenue we'd be Liberia with midgies. Devo max would probably still win, but that's not a done deal.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18366872493020362722014-11-17T23:09:12.712+00:002014-11-17T23:09:12.712+00:0066%.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scott...66%.<br /><br />http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/the-powers-struggle-poll-reveals-support-for-devo-max.25509432Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76160005143730175302014-11-17T23:07:51.718+00:002014-11-17T23:07:51.718+00:00Given that 45% voted for independence and not all ...Given that 45% voted for independence and not all will be up for a quick rerun, then the SNP would logically be limiting there vote to less than 45% if they don't accept this result for now. However, by holding independence in abeyance, with the clear understanding that failure to deliver DevoMax and its back on the table, they align themselves with greater than 60% of voters.Willie Hoggnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12828427452163889682014-11-17T23:07:09.351+00:002014-11-17T23:07:09.351+00:00I assume that's respectively the best and wors...I assume that's respectively the best and worst ever ratings for each party with Survation. But in the current climate I barely batted an eyelid at them.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44189769277556243692014-11-17T23:05:35.634+00:002014-11-17T23:05:35.634+00:00If there was a referendum on Devo max in 2016, are...If there was a referendum on Devo max in 2016, are you arguing that people will support the status quo (continuing cuts to the block grant, austerity for the foreseeable future), or do you think they will support Holyrood having almost all tax powers, energy, transport, and welfare powers? muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41663388188764645972014-11-17T23:04:31.206+00:002014-11-17T23:04:31.206+00:00Aye.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/p...Aye.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-bombshell-ed-milliband-shows-4646014" rel="nofollow">http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-bombshell-ed-milliband-shows-4646014</a>Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42556561673965141562014-11-17T23:00:26.709+00:002014-11-17T23:00:26.709+00:00@muttley79
I'm not suggesting that it's no...@muttley79<br />I'm not suggesting that it's not the most popular option, but that the reason for that is that it tends to be the "safe" middle choice in polls. In a 50/50 vote it might not fare so well.<br /><br />@James<br />I do agree that people would likely vote for devo max: I'm just saying it might not be the shoo-in muttley79 suggested, and that he was neglecting one possible outcome in his hypothetical "win-win" situation.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50721431380725060292014-11-17T22:59:43.008+00:002014-11-17T22:59:43.008+00:00New Survation poll has SNP on 46% with Labour at 2...New Survation poll has SNP on 46% with Labour at 24%. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39903700556921081592014-11-17T22:57:08.685+00:002014-11-17T22:57:08.685+00:00Muttley, can you or anybody else allay my fear tha...Muttley, can you or anybody else allay my fear that after the GE Miliband or Cameron won't explicitly state that Scotland won't be having another indyref? <br /><br />The win-win you outline above is appealing btw. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89411107575524842014-11-17T22:56:56.092+00:002014-11-17T22:56:56.092+00:00@James
A Tory win in 2015 would also invalidate t...@James<br /><br />A Tory win in 2015 would also invalidate the basis on which some people voted No. But few have said that would justify another referendum.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40914330170358054992014-11-17T22:54:46.112+00:002014-11-17T22:54:46.112+00:00As I understand it, LPW's argument wasn't ...As I understand it, LPW's argument wasn't about "precedent", but rather that the Section 30 order had permanently changed the law. If you read the text of it, you can see what he means, although I do wonder if he overstated the case in claiming that there was no ambiguity remaining.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90702716322605887972014-11-17T22:54:01.779+00:002014-11-17T22:54:01.779+00:00@yesindyref2
That article says a lot about why it...@yesindyref2<br /><br />That article says a lot about why it would be bad for Scotland if the UK left the EU, but doesn't (as far as I can see) give any reason why this issue should be afforded the special status it seems to have taken on in the independence debate.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34704745041115278402014-11-17T22:52:18.270+00:002014-11-17T22:52:18.270+00:00Devo max has consistently been the most popular co...Devo max has consistently been the most popular constitutional option in the last decade or so according to the opinion polls. When the SNP sent in their Devo max proposals to the Smith Commission recently they cited a poll showing strong support for Devo max. I do not have any links. Ask James. If it was not the most popular option, why do you think unionist politicians and the MSM started mentioning it in regards to a No vote, in the last week of the referendum, when support for independence was surging? muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62085495491624698442014-11-17T22:51:12.873+00:002014-11-17T22:51:12.873+00:00"What if we hold one and lose?"
That...<i>"What if we hold one and lose?"</i><br /><br />That's an argument for never doing anything. I know you mean wait for the right referendum at the right moment, but there'll always be an element of risk. Much as I would love it, we're never going to get to Norwegian-style support for independence (or even for Devo Max).James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29841748337102818862014-11-17T22:49:12.829+00:002014-11-17T22:49:12.829+00:00"Anything that is not explicitly reserved is ..."Anything that is not explicitly reserved is devolved. Consultative referendums on subjects other than independence are not explicitly reserved."<br /><br />Might this include a consultative referendum on Scottish sovereignty? "Do you believe that sovereignty should lie with [wording that means WM] or with [wording that means the Scottish people]?"<br /><br />If a second question were to follow the Devomax one, this is the question I would want. The importance of the soveregnty question is lost on many people and this would bring it right to the heart of public discourse. Like Devomax, the result of a sovereignty referendum would be a foregone conclusion, and once WM sovereignty has been overwhelmingly denied, their refusal of another indyref becomes much easier to ignore. <br /><br /><br />"Fundamentalists in the party shouldn't have any great problem going along with it either, because it's not hard to see how it might bring independence closer - if there's a clear mandate for Devo Max established and the UK government ignores it, the next step is fairly obvious."<br /><br />Not to me (duh). UDI? Another indyref? <br /><br />Bloodsucker-HQ-by-the-Thames ever granting Scotland devomax/Home Rule/full fiscal autonomy is doubtful. The next time the RAF starts bombing Muslims Holyrood could just refuse the next defence cheque and UDI with 60% support. <br /><br />Which is not to say the referendum proposed by Kevin isn't a good idea, but only as leverage for indy IMO. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53066646170550858302014-11-17T22:49:09.673+00:002014-11-17T22:49:09.673+00:00"Anyway. I've never quite understood why ...<i>"Anyway. I've never quite understood why a potential Brexit keeps being held up as this totemic game-changer which would justify a quick second referendum."</i><br /><br />Pretty simple : because the No campaign told us that a No vote would keep us in the EU, and that a Yes vote would see us leave the EU. A Brexit would invalidate the whole basis on which some people voted No.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67970969899257069892014-11-17T22:45:23.807+00:002014-11-17T22:45:23.807+00:00Why would the SNP want to hold another independenc...Why would the SNP want to hold another independence referendum within 18 months of a No victory in September's vote? That does not make any sense. You only get two goes at a independence referendum.muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74074167127054585662014-11-17T22:43:52.079+00:002014-11-17T22:43:52.079+00:00You got a link? I can only find polls which asked ...You got a link? I can only find polls which asked about a range of constitutional options, not one which focused on devo max specifically.keatonnoreply@blogger.com