tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5120268848613669010..comments2024-03-28T12:14:08.731+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Scotland stands on the brink of independence as Yes vote surges to 47% in historic poll from traditionally No-friendly firm YouGovJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger85125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84125961913948596382014-09-03T17:43:07.954+01:002014-09-03T17:43:07.954+01:00Expat, I was referring to the Ipsos Mori poll not ...Expat, I was referring to the Ipsos Mori poll not being buried (As opposed to private). I would concur on the existance of a Panelbase poll that hasn't been released.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22412113944753975822014-09-03T16:27:18.563+01:002014-09-03T16:27:18.563+01:00Hmmm this copied from a post in Wings:
"Carr...Hmmm this copied from a post in Wings:<br /><br />"Carrell of The Guardian tweeted earlier that he reckons that YES are sitting on a Panelbase poll result with YES in the lead, waiting to release it for maximum impact.<br /><br />Would be nice if it were true, and it was released when Dave and his warmongering NATO pals are all having their chinwag.<br /><br />How humiliating would that be LOL"<br />Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58109253586389571912014-09-03T14:23:30.112+01:002014-09-03T14:23:30.112+01:00Expat, you might find you are eating your words on...Expat, you might find you are eating your words on Sunday.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29367355331083601812014-09-03T14:06:52.686+01:002014-09-03T14:06:52.686+01:00Stoat, you doubt any poll has been buried but But ...Stoat, you doubt any poll has been buried but But James said, when commenting on the absence of polls some days ago, he had clear evidence a Panelbase poll in the field and its questions strongly suggested it was commissioned by Yes. If so, it is surely likely as the days go on that it has been buried. The evidence for a No poll (he said) was less clear. I respect his accuracy on these things so I assume it is Yes who decided not to go ahead and leak it to the Herald. Unless that is the Panelbase polling is going on over a longer time and it pops up tomorrow or Friday.Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14319428280824683382014-09-03T12:54:59.805+01:002014-09-03T12:54:59.805+01:00The last taxpayer funded No megapoll was almost ce...The last taxpayer funded No megapoll was almost certainly fed to 'better together' who then gave it to their incompetent PR drones and to 'polish' their message to the razor sharp cutting edge message that was..<br /><br />PatronisingBTLady.<br /><br />LOL<br /><br />Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50951391743038807922014-09-03T12:35:14.046+01:002014-09-03T12:35:14.046+01:00Thanks for the clarification.Thanks for the clarification.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51467313042917209492014-09-03T12:27:33.255+01:002014-09-03T12:27:33.255+01:00It's not actually true that Better Together ha...It's not actually true that Better Together have never published internal polls - although they've always withheld voting intention numbers, they have published bits of their YouGov polls. And it's always been YouGov - the fact that this one is Ipsos-Mori raises the possibility that this is another taxpayer-funded megapoll for the UK government.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17169910649070143182014-09-03T11:52:50.335+01:002014-09-03T11:52:50.335+01:00I seriously doubt that any poll has been buried. ...I seriously doubt that any poll has been buried. If there is a mystery poll out there, it's quite possible that it was a private poll commissioned by Better Together. We should remember that Better Together never release their own polls.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17549842934857709472014-09-03T10:51:53.312+01:002014-09-03T10:51:53.312+01:00There is going to be enough fantasy around if Yes ...There is going to be enough fantasy around if Yes wins so let's try and keep it to a minimum here. STV could not and would not commission a poll and then bury it. Not all of STV are No voters, are they? The only people who can bury polls are Yes or No themselves and there seems to be some certainty a YES poll was indeed buried in the last few days. But Yes have no need at all to bury a poll showing them level or in the lead--it is massive over-thinking to suppose otherwise. It wouldn't matter if later they fall back, it would be a HUGE moment. So we can only conclude what they got was not good enough. <br /><br />It has also been suggested here they are trying consistently and will publish when they get one that works for them. If this is so and they are commissioning many polls then eventually they will come up with an outlier that puts them level or ahead and feed it to the Herald but I am not sure, if true, this is particularly ethical. <br /><br />Certainly though the end of next week is the massive psychological moment. And that is when I see Murdoch and the Sun weighing in. <br />Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69653488586064814372014-09-03T10:27:09.503+01:002014-09-03T10:27:09.503+01:00I got polled by ipsos mori on monday night so they...I got polled by ipsos mori on monday night so they were active, whether it was specifically for STV I don't know.Chris Knowlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56327837752396585762014-09-03T10:16:26.842+01:002014-09-03T10:16:26.842+01:00Reading the various comments, I'd hedge a bet...Reading the various comments, I'd hedge a bet that there was indeed a poll (recall talk of results being announced prior to debate as per STV's usual format), but this poll was grim news for Better Together, hence its been swept under the carpet.<br /><br />In 2011, Labour were still "well ahead" in the STV pre debate poll conducted by TNS. Ponsonby dwelled on it, going to great lengths. By the second debate c3weeks later, the figures were an almost exact reversal. Ponsonby quickly mentioned it only as a "by the way" issue, no doubt because TNS had actually published them on their website, putting the headline figures up immediately before the debate commenced! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21159644004296375592014-09-03T08:38:35.431+01:002014-09-03T08:38:35.431+01:00Ah well, either no poll or someone decided not to ...Ah well, either no poll or someone decided not to publish a bad un for No.<br /><br />Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83517973470954459242014-09-03T08:23:38.135+01:002014-09-03T08:23:38.135+01:00If the UK Gov polls shared in any way with NO Camp...If the UK Gov polls shared in any way with NO Campaign members [which they must be as ALL UK ministers members of registered No Parties] and same info not available to Yes, then I consider Electoral Commission rules to be worthless. Fundamentally un-democratic ( and would say the same had it been Scot Gov polls not shared with No )<br /><br />#PublishThePoll Gordon Innesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76933953476785028192014-09-03T00:58:48.244+01:002014-09-03T00:58:48.244+01:00Ipsos Mori published a poll prior to the STV debat...Ipsos Mori published a poll prior to the STV debate between Alex Salmond and Darling.<br /><br />It was widely asserted there would be a poll published prior to this debate. <br /><br />It appears there has either been no poll, or indeed the poll results were poor for the No Scotland campaign.<br /><br />FYI, Ipsos Mori have regular conducted Independence VI polls for the Westminster government since January, understood to be at a cost of c£500K to date from the public purse. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27555826892825181042014-09-03T00:38:11.830+01:002014-09-03T00:38:11.830+01:00What makes you believe that there was a poll? I h...What makes you believe that there was a poll? I had always understood that Ipsos Mori was only going to be publishing one poll in September - and that presumably will be on the eve of the 18th.EdinburghPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02607333526580186251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62397976478701865272014-09-02T23:47:43.070+01:002014-09-02T23:47:43.070+01:00James,
Presumably the IPSOS-MORI "pre debate...James,<br /><br />Presumably the IPSOS-MORI "pre debate" poll asserted to have been undertaken for STV brings more positive news for Scottish democracy and lousey news for NoScotland / NewLabourTory and hence will now be buried?<br /><br />Any information with regard to this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30702787037786648122014-09-02T22:41:32.986+01:002014-09-02T22:41:32.986+01:00Incredibly busy today. Scottish voters are being r...Incredibly busy today. Scottish voters are being registered right up to the midnight deadline. People in Yes shops and elsewhere (some MSPs were on the streets in Glasgow I heard) were helping while those with cars were arranging to take those very last minute people to the appropriate locations.<br /><br />Nor were all these people just forgetful or those who have never voted before. Quite a few were those who had made a last minute check to make doubly sure they were registered and found out they weren't.<br /><br />Regardless, all that came in were helped and assistance was given with explaining the procedure for proxy votes where it was needed.<br /><br />In the relative calm between those anxious to get registered there was an incredibly optimistic and positive atmosphere. <br /><br />It's hard to explain just how massive the yawning chasm between how those stuck in the westmisnter bubble perceive this Independence Referendum and a grass roots movement quite unlike anything scotland or indeed the UK has seen before. They simply do not get it and never will. <br /><br />For the No campaign to bang on and shriek dementedly about currency yet again, even after it has failed so <i>spectacularly</i> to do anything other than close the gap to a virtual dead heat, (under the most NO friendly pollster out there) is incredible, but not all that surprising. <br /><br />2011 was the precise same pattern. Before the 2011 landslide they had clearly learned nothing from a failing campaign and simply doubled down on the negativity and stupidity. They simply had nowhere else to go and utterly refused to believe the reports from the ground. <br /><br />Let's be clear though, 2011 was probably the most formidable piece of SNP party campaigning there has ever been. However, it simply cannot compare to the breadth, scope and diversity of the Yes grass roots movement. This is on another level completely. Those who still fail to comprehend that have no hope of ever understanding scottish politics and likely never will.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46702420287665594432014-09-02T21:30:24.175+01:002014-09-02T21:30:24.175+01:00Just liked the colour scheme here.
https://archiv...Just liked the colour scheme here.<br /><br />https://archive.today/z4hBl/2d3593c578f616e52e81147d466f8ac318fd8d14/scr.pngScottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81883458368422291842014-09-02T19:06:34.725+01:002014-09-02T19:06:34.725+01:00When I say same format I mean like the one we'...When I say same format I mean like the one we've just had and likely a paper rather than BT. Only one Q I felt was a bit silly in terms of leading me to say that the world would likely end if I voted Yes.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59215151907157965522014-09-02T19:03:15.601+01:002014-09-02T19:03:15.601+01:00Just decided to fill out a Yougov having not bothe...Just decided to fill out a Yougov having not bothered in 2 years (I'm a 'not responding Scot').<br /><br />Same format as current VI, indyref etc.<br /><br />Then lots of questions on trust in campaigns, figures.. things that I might fear about Y or N, economy etc.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81827505031487854092014-09-02T19:00:12.696+01:002014-09-02T19:00:12.696+01:00"350 hours till the poll opens tick-tock :-)&..."350 hours till the poll opens tick-tock :-)"<br /><br />Now isn't that a laugh, the no lead is crashing through the floor and the no troll comes on acting all smug and self satisfied.<br /><br />You couldn't make it up. What a tonic, LOL!Pantone300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24003374991326801982014-09-02T18:53:31.233+01:002014-09-02T18:53:31.233+01:00I suspect the Ipsos Mori poll will be announced du...I suspect the Ipsos Mori poll will be announced during the STV "town hall" debate programme tonight. They did the poll that was announced during their Salmond v Darling debate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25994208495554144472014-09-02T18:49:18.620+01:002014-09-02T18:49:18.620+01:00Is it safe to say there's not going to be an I...Is it safe to say there's not going to be an Ipsos MORI this evening, then? Not seen it mentioned anywhere except in Patrick's comment above.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62174809769123813602014-09-02T18:05:53.348+01:002014-09-02T18:05:53.348+01:00We thought it was underestimating the Yes vote. Th...We thought it was underestimating the Yes vote. That opinion still stands. Chin chin old chap.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73590627089621639532014-09-02T17:40:13.898+01:002014-09-02T17:40:13.898+01:00what ho chappys, i see you think yougov is a prope...what ho chappys, i see you think yougov is a proper poll now then eh?<br /><br />remember to keep slating the tories and ukip though, us poor no's need that guaranteed 30% bedrock. we only need 20% of the rest then you see :-)<br /><br />350 hours till the poll opens tick-tock :-)<br /><br />saynotoyesmennoreply@blogger.com