tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5064899164123170722..comments2024-03-28T19:41:05.440+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: It's answer time!James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35845342773537818392019-09-25T23:36:43.108+01:002019-09-25T23:36:43.108+01:00Derek Rogers: I've deleted your latest comment...Derek Rogers: I've deleted your latest comment. Your super-confident cluelessness is rather entertaining in a way, but there's a danger you might be misleading the uninitiated with your "I'm an expert" bluff, and there's been enough misinformation on this thread already. (Not least from people who aren't aware of very basic stuff like 3% of the vote not being enough to win list seats.)James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88161278010704902972019-09-25T16:47:46.751+01:002019-09-25T16:47:46.751+01:00I've deleted most of the abusive and/or troll ...I've deleted most of the abusive and/or troll comments on this thread, but I'll leave the above one up as a monument to the comical stupidity of the people (and there have been several) who don't understand AMS but who nevertheless try to "explain" it to those who do. <br /><br />If AMS was perfectly proportional, it wouldn't even be theoretically possible to game it. The largest party getting 40% of seats on 29% of the list vote isn't remotely surprising - if you think it is, it's a tell-tale sign you don't understand the system at all.<br /><br />Even if we didn't have a regional apportionment of seats, there would almost certainly be a national threshold to prevent a party taking seats on 3% of the vote.<br /><br />And the other 4% of the list vote does exist. So do the other parties who take those votes. You're the one trying to edit them out of existence. Only you can explain why.<br /><br />Now, I know this is embarrassing for you, but please, learn from the others that have gone before you. Don't double down. Don't keep digging this hole you're in. Educate yourself on the system you're trying to discuss.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75410237870597259032019-09-25T16:37:01.534+01:002019-09-25T16:37:01.534+01:00No, it's not "my model" you don'...No, it's not "my model" you don't understand - it's AMS itself. How on earth are you getting 4 Wings seats on 3% of the vote? Why are there only 122 seats? My guess is that you think seats are being distributed proportionally on a national basis - am I right? The Holyrood system doesn't work that way. You need at least 5% of the vote in a region to win a seat - sometimes more. Wings would be doing well to win even one seat on 3% of the vote. Zero would be the most likely figure.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27723903114724918092019-09-25T08:50:39.647+01:002019-09-25T08:50:39.647+01:00My results for Scenario B show:
SNP 37
Con 32
L...My results for Scenario B show:<br /><br /><b>SNP 37<br /><br />Con 32<br /><br />Lab 28<br /><br />Green 10<br /><br />Lib Dem 6<br /><br />Brexit 5<br /><br />Wings 4</b><br /><br />but that's only 122 seats. I'm afraid I don't understand your model, James.<br />Mary Gradynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25501469276346681752019-09-24T19:30:55.767+01:002019-09-24T19:30:55.767+01:00Christ on a bicycle, what are you saying here?
&q...Christ on a bicycle, what are you saying here?<br /><br /><i>"My 96% of the regional vote is intentional."</i> AMS takes account of *all* the list votes, not just some of them. Is this an election where 4% of the votes don't exist?<br /><br /><i>"How are Wings getting 4 seats on 3% of the vote?"</i> 3% of 129 seats = 3.87 seats, or 4 seats with rounding. AMS is proportional.<br /><br />You also need to explain how 29% of the list vote gives the SNP 40% of the seats, when AMS is proportional.<br /><br />Stop being an idiot, James.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11902704929297030542019-09-24T16:58:17.156+01:002019-09-24T16:58:17.156+01:00"we are all ultimately on the same side"...<i>"we are all ultimately on the same side"</i><br /><br />We're on the same side until we end up in different parties. I take your point about Westminster being FPTP but it remains to be seen if smaller pro-indy parties will intervene in certain constituencies.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61294605164570016542019-09-24T16:50:31.184+01:002019-09-24T16:50:31.184+01:00Johnson saying that he's right and the judges ...Johnson saying that he's right and the judges / law is wrong. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52966264684070113802019-09-24T16:33:00.962+01:002019-09-24T16:33:00.962+01:00"Your percentages of the regional vote only a...<i>"Your percentages of the regional vote only add up to 96%, so that's wrong"</i><br /><br />Nope, that's not wrong, that's intentional.<br /><br /><i>"but is my calculation correct?"</i><br /><br />Nope, it's nuts. How on earth are Wings getting four seats on 3% of the vote?James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91765114692561761232019-09-24T14:30:20.209+01:002019-09-24T14:30:20.209+01:00Boris has to resign.
If he doesn't, then the ...Boris has to resign.<br /><br />If he doesn't, then the UK takes another great leap towards dictatorship.<br /><br />For a PM to shut down parliament illegally, yet still hold the keys to number 10 and the launch codes for the nukes is scary stuff. It shows how vulnerable the UK is to fascism. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58588064433813751702019-09-24T14:27:14.248+01:002019-09-24T14:27:14.248+01:00Seems to me otherwise:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news...Seems to me otherwise:<br /><br />https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49810261<br /><br /><i>"Mrs Miller was appealing against the English High Court's decision that the prorogation was "purely political" and not a matter for the courts.<br /><br />The government was appealing against the ruling by Scotland's Court of Session that the prorogation was "unlawful" and had been used to "stymie" Parliament.<br /><br />The court ruled in favour of Mrs Miller's appeal and against the government's."</i><br /><br />Seems to me Scottish Law and English law are equally telling England what to do, e.g. Scottish law <i>is</i> telling England what to do, just as I said.<br /><br />If both rulings had been upheld (illegal in Scotland, ok in England), it would still be illegal as would have been illegal in Scotland. If you are acting as the British government, you must act lawfully in all 3 legal jurisdictions. <br /><br />So, Scots law has told England what do do. In the end, English law agreed with Scots law. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53834358822016193082019-09-24T14:20:29.432+01:002019-09-24T14:20:29.432+01:00So the UKSC didn't agree with the Court of Ses...So the UKSC didn't agree with the Court of Session?Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5540943777709355452019-09-24T12:56:55.300+01:002019-09-24T12:56:55.300+01:00No what mattered was that the case was considered ...No what mattered was that the case was considered judgeable, if it had not been what any court though would not matter. <br /><br />Of course if it had not been found judgeable then the UKSC would of been agreeing with a Scottish court. Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383507212219496598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27985637904407239352019-09-24T12:26:59.819+01:002019-09-24T12:26:59.819+01:00So it was only the English ruling that mattered? I...So it was only the English ruling that mattered? If so, this is gold dust for independence. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67519220007292817052019-09-24T12:25:57.836+01:002019-09-24T12:25:57.836+01:00To show the dangers posed by Wings, you gave a hyp...To show the dangers posed by Wings, you gave a hypothetical example here of how AMS works:<br /><br />https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-snp-must-make-this-independence.html<br /><br />However, with all due respect, I don't believe your example is correct. Your percentages of the regional vote only add up to 96%, so that's wrong, and in Scenario B the SNP has 29% of the regional vote but 40% of the seats, and AMS couldn't possibly give that result. I would adjust it as follows:<br /><br />Regional vote %: SNP 29%, Others 68%, Wings 3% (total 100%)<br /><br />Under AMS, this gives the SNP 37 seats, Others 88, and Wings 4.<br /><br />I know it gives an unfortunate result - no loss of pro-independence seats - but is my calculation correct?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73661939895226114892019-09-24T12:23:29.451+01:002019-09-24T12:23:29.451+01:00Next from Boris I bet: 'The law/judges/parliam...Next from Boris I bet: 'The law/judges/parliament are all thwarting the will of the people. The power of these should be curtailed and instead given to the dear leader so he can emancipate the masses, guiding them unto the sunlight uplands of brave new Britannia, GSTQ'.Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84171616631690590802019-09-24T12:22:13.549+01:002019-09-24T12:22:13.549+01:00No a higher court has said that a lower court was ...No a higher court has said that a lower court was wrong under English law. Just as a higher Scottish court ruled that that lower Scottish court was wrong under Scottish law . English law is ruling England Scottish law Scotland.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383507212219496598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25584929669790665202019-09-24T12:17:52.024+01:002019-09-24T12:17:52.024+01:00
So hopefully we can now suspend the internal indy...<br />So hopefully we can now suspend the internal indy rammy going on. The UK is utterly done, the chink in the armour is there. While we might disagree on tactics and approaches, now is the time to rally round, we are all ultimately on the same side.<br /><br />Force the advantage. Dont decend into a UK Labour type civil war. There is an election coming – NOW. Not in 18 mths, how we do that can wait and there is endless debates on how that will occur. For now, its First Past the Post, there is one horse in the race (SNP) to make that happen. We need landslide in Scotland and then its game on.<br /><br />Rev up the engines, gather your thoughts, plan your campaign – the time is now. There has never been a time like this. Lochranzahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09666400636743039462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26776825807505847812019-09-24T12:13:21.799+01:002019-09-24T12:13:21.799+01:00Then Scots law is is ruling England then. If both ...Then Scots law <i>is</i> is ruling England then. If both laws are equal, both are overruling England. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42020069633086791982019-09-24T12:04:20.885+01:002019-09-24T12:04:20.885+01:00It didn't. The ruling made under 'English...It didn't. The ruling made under 'English' law at lower courts has been overturned. English law and Scottish law are the same on this matter Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383507212219496598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55239087216691555812019-09-24T12:01:33.092+01:002019-09-24T12:01:33.092+01:00Didn't most Scots Tories support breaking the ...Didn't most Scots Tories support breaking the law?<br /><br />Time for resignations surely?Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91543318822378187662019-09-24T11:59:57.277+01:002019-09-24T11:59:57.277+01:00It's almost as good as the N. Irish blocking E...It's almost as good as the N. Irish blocking England's brexit with their backstop.Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3638865317352591092019-09-24T11:58:02.382+01:002019-09-24T11:58:02.382+01:00Great to see Scots law telling England what to do ...Great to see Scots law telling England what to do and throwing a huge spanning in their independence works.<br /><br />This is what union is all about. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86980685795339544212019-09-24T11:56:29.635+01:002019-09-24T11:56:29.635+01:00Which is what Johnson wanted though. The VoC thing...Which is what Johnson wanted though. The VoC thing.<br /><br />As for Scottish indy, the whole thing is great. If he resigns, the English (brexit nationalists) will want Scottish independence. If he doesn't, Scots will want independence.Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42118348463505609482019-09-24T11:39:59.547+01:002019-09-24T11:39:59.547+01:00In 2014 the No side said we want Scotland to lead ...In 2014 the No side said we want Scotland to lead the UK. Today it happened via the Supreme Court. Well done Joanna Cherry. Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91114574239072617022019-09-24T11:25:13.836+01:002019-09-24T11:25:13.836+01:00Hard to see how Boris survives this. There is no ...Hard to see how Boris survives this. There is no wiggle room, no illegal under Scottish Law legal under English law cop out.<br /><br />Unless he does resign there has got to be a VoC with the opposition parties backing it this time.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383507212219496598noreply@blogger.com