tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5014579328037874915..comments2024-03-29T12:25:03.168+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Independence rises this Easter, as Yes campaign close the gap to just 3% in earth-shaking new poll from "gold standard" ICMJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20503042261617417792014-04-21T08:23:21.300+01:002014-04-21T08:23:21.300+01:00@Calum Findlay.
I'd say your answer lies in t...@Calum Findlay.<br /><br />I'd say your answer lies in this:<br /><br />2011 SNP voters<br />55% Yes / 18% No face to face(rec. TNS)<br />71% Yes / 16% No online (rec. PB, ICM)<br /><br />2011 Labour voters<br />15% Yes / 58% No face to face<br />24-30% Yes / 57-58% No online<br />....<br /><br />Notice how the No doesn't really change but the Yes drops to DK considerably when people are asked in their living room by a stranger rather than when filling in a form alone on their smartphone.<br /><br />As for the 'shy no' comments from ICM. Dear dear. Surely if shy No existed, No would do better in more anonymous online polls rather than the opposite? Also, the problem seems to be not enough people admitting they voted SNP in 2011, requiring this group to be up-weighted. Surely this means shy SNP and by implication more likely shy Yes? SNP being of course that 'nasty, anti-English, dictatorial separatist party' :-)<br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7829789138626768042014-04-20T21:40:12.532+01:002014-04-20T21:40:12.532+01:00Now that ICM and TNS use the same weighting proced...Now that ICM and TNS use the same weighting procedure, we can compare the differences between an online and offline poll more easily. I notice that ICM are showing definite Yes: 30% definite No: 37%, compared to TNS who put those figures at 21% and 30%. ICM also show a 10% higher YES vote and 1% higher NO vote on the headlines. <br /><br />Are people less honest with TNS because they are being interviewed face to face? Or are the people on an online panel more engaged with the debate and so more likely to have an opinion? Does the preamble explain the difference between the headline figures? <br />Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37141407859352044592014-04-20T13:11:32.295+01:002014-04-20T13:11:32.295+01:00Ah, thanks for the CoB figures for over-16s - I...Ah, thanks for the CoB figures for over-16s - I've tried to find those a number of times, but the census website isn't exactly user-friendly. In that case, I'm struggling to see where ICM are getting the 15% figure from.<br /><br />Marcia : I totally agree, a Shy Yes Syndrome is far more plausible than a Shy No Syndrome. Presumably our 'friends' at PB are taking their cue from that distinctly odd article from Martin Boon, which entertains the possibility of the latter and completely ignores the possibility of the former. He hints vaguely at anecdotal evidence for a Shy No Syndrome - I'd be fascinated to hear one or two of those anecdotes.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4406770242595997472014-04-20T12:55:40.751+01:002014-04-20T12:55:40.751+01:00Based on Prof C's numbers for how decided peop...Based on Prof C's numbers for how decided people are, only 37% committed to No in this ICM poll.<br /><br />This is on the high side - it was 30% in TNS - and likely down to the sample skew in terms of too high a figure for 'England' with respect to CoB.<br /><br />1/3 is the best No can be sure of in terms of fairly solid backing. Doesn't mean they'll all turn out though.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8795988033596541892014-04-20T12:02:59.447+01:002014-04-20T12:02:59.447+01:00In the 2011 census, 9.6% of 16yr+ had England as C...In the 2011 census, 9.6% of 16yr+ had England as CoB.<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23356000534252271932014-04-20T11:17:19.618+01:002014-04-20T11:17:19.618+01:00One a rare visit to PB today I see that the 's...One a rare visit to PB today I see that the 'shy No vote' is the latest reason to try and understand what is going on with the Independence referendum. It is when you read that sort of comment you realise their knowledge of politics in Scotland is rather lacking. <br /><br />The default position is No not Yes and in the years past (and even to some today) to actually come out as a Yes voter or Scottish Independence was frowned upon and just a political dreamer. You just kept quiet.<br /><br />Opposition to Independence is weakening, the speed of which is worrying the No camp and their followers.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37979947999578343602014-04-20T01:36:04.210+01:002014-04-20T01:36:04.210+01:00Yes Andrew, it was amazing reading the prof and th...Yes Andrew, it was amazing reading the prof and the SOS journalists, zooming in on the English voters and how they might swing the vote! As you say they were recorded as 15% of the survey, yet only about 8% of the Scottish population. This is something that has been picked up on in the SOS comments. So this remarkable poll, is still not telling the true story of how well Yes is doing. Pleasing!Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24336480998100363132014-04-20T00:50:18.834+01:002014-04-20T00:50:18.834+01:00Scots were 42% to 40% in favour of Yes.Scots were 42% to 40% in favour of Yes.Andrew Mortonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05562143171249446260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28977504353389753032014-04-20T00:49:25.144+01:002014-04-20T00:49:25.144+01:0015% of those polled were English. Surely this is t...15% of those polled were English. Surely this is too heavy a weighting as I understand that English people are about 8 or 9% of the Scottish population?Andrew Mortonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05562143171249446260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22168652897021542832014-04-20T00:45:32.586+01:002014-04-20T00:45:32.586+01:00You're quite right - in my rush to get the num...You're quite right - in my rush to get the numbers up I didn't read carefully enough. Corrected now. In many ways that's even better!James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49037055033062917442014-04-20T00:40:20.211+01:002014-04-20T00:40:20.211+01:00SoS says it is 39% Yes (nc), 42% No (-4)SoS says it is 39% Yes (nc), 42% No (-4)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64666157453784043002014-04-20T00:35:31.174+01:002014-04-20T00:35:31.174+01:00We will have to wait until the morning for the Sun...We will have to wait until the morning for the Sunday Post poll. Someone on PB said it was the better of the two polls from info he received from Edinburgh. We shall see. Now off to bed.Marcianoreply@blogger.com