tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post4766629915605766087..comments2024-03-19T13:03:35.487+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: What does the latest YouGov poll mean for the local elections?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26022923398189361552012-03-13T08:27:58.792+00:002012-03-13T08:27:58.792+00:00Welcome back, Councillor Gallagher. I'd be ex...Welcome back, Councillor Gallagher. I'd be extremely worried for your side of the argument if you hadn't met at least four real people who opposed independence by now.<br /><br />A fuller response to your comment can be found <a href="http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2012/03/forget-polls-labour-councillor-has-met.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31208181088112757842012-03-12T16:13:57.338+00:002012-03-12T16:13:57.338+00:00Don't know about the poll, but I have been app...Don't know about the poll, but I have been approached on 4 seperate occassions in the last month by, generally non political, people asking if this "independence thing" was really going to happen and how could it be stopped.<br /><br />Straws in the wind but would seem to indicate that, when people start to think about it, "independence" doesn't float their boat.Bravehearthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07223196805548966030noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16902895234783976442012-03-11T00:03:45.814+00:002012-03-11T00:03:45.814+00:00All this means is that YouGov's polling consti...All this means is that YouGov's polling constituency is weighted in favour of unionism. That might sound like a pro-independence person making excuses, but it's the most obvious explanation for the fluctuations. <br /><br />As a result, it's difficult to take their results as a true reflection of the populace.Doug Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15017218581660887134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71572873614532561502012-03-10T23:40:51.022+00:002012-03-10T23:40:51.022+00:00I suspect that what all this bouncing around means...I suspect that what all this bouncing around means is that, as Oldnat has said more than once on UK Polling Report, Yougov's sampling methodology is not very reliable in Scotland. We shall see.Angus McLellanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14238976801715524150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46726917504267733142012-03-10T22:28:02.308+00:002012-03-10T22:28:02.308+00:00Hi James,
Marcia's beaten me to it insofar as...Hi James,<br /><br />Marcia's beaten me to it insofar as 2007 makes for a clearer baseline if you're looking for signposts for the local elections - the Holyrood poll shows both the SNP and Labour improving on their 2007 performance (though with an overall swing to the SNP). I've taken a stab at a possible projection from this poll and I would think that if the changes in support levels from 2007 are accurate, the SNP could find itself with 133 extra Councillors come May - 496 in total!<br /><br />Labour would end up with 43 extra (to 391), the Tories would lose 35 (to 108) and the LibDems would lose 109 (falling to 57). The Greens would lose half their Councillors (sounds bad, but it's only a fall from eight to four) and there'd be 28 fewer others (down to 166).<br /><br />One thing I'm worried about is the Glasgow fixation: the result in Glasgow last year was impressive, without a doubt, and it does seem like Glasgow Labour are trying to find new and innovative ways of losing control of the Council but we still don't know what impact Glasgow First will have on proceedings and if they don't hit the Labour vote hard, we risk what could be a major impressive night - nearly five hundred Councillors and possible outright control of Dundee, Angus, Aberdeenshire, Moray and Renfrewshire - could end up being branded a disappointment by the commentariat on the basis of the one that got away.<br /><br />Plenty of causes for optimism, but HQ needs to get that Glasgow is one Council out of 32, and remains one of the toughest nuts to crack, even now...Will Phttp://pattersonnotebook.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77333410841945733622012-03-10T18:34:42.815+00:002012-03-10T18:34:42.815+00:00If you take this poll to be accurate as one single...If you take this poll to be accurate as one single poll isn't then we are polling higher than we were in 2007 and we will elect more councillors than we did in 2007. Also in Glasgow the SNP fielded far too few candidates in 2007 and let Labour have an over all majority by default. They have learnt how STV works and have adapted the multi-member vote stratagy courtesy of places like Dundee. It will be an interesting election.Marcianoreply@blogger.com