tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post428005900923400954..comments2024-03-29T05:53:21.060+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP vote soars into the stratosphere in breathtaking TNS pollJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52487512884431551552015-04-14T18:52:59.621+01:002015-04-14T18:52:59.621+01:00Thanks for the explanation.Thanks for the explanation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10892627655738277612015-04-14T15:20:28.409+01:002015-04-14T15:20:28.409+01:00The Undecideds, like the postal vote, is a constru...The Undecideds, like the postal vote, is a construct to explain the sudden "defeat" of SNP candidates. Just like they did in the referendum. <br />Maggots eating the heart out of what passes for democracy in our modern world.Humerous Vegetablehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06749447163866759111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51473034219624365422015-04-14T14:34:33.415+01:002015-04-14T14:34:33.415+01:00Hopefully our LibDem will NOT be one of the 2 Argy...Hopefully our LibDem will NOT be one of the 2 Argyll deserves betterxraypathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01997238305455676123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91916139257444253292015-04-14T14:32:43.764+01:002015-04-14T14:32:43.764+01:00Not this over 60 wrinkly!Not this over 60 wrinkly!xraypathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01997238305455676123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73970319316687408132015-04-14T14:31:41.191+01:002015-04-14T14:31:41.191+01:00couldn't have said it better...I still regret ...couldn't have said it better...I still regret my tactical LibDem vote in 2010 xraypathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01997238305455676123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36494652308128560322015-04-14T09:55:00.332+01:002015-04-14T09:55:00.332+01:00Turnout won't be as high as 78%. More likely l...Turnout won't be as high as 78%. More likely low 70s, maybe high 60s. 56% of the total sample expressed a firm intention. That leaves maybe 15% of the total electorate who will vote but have not yet decided. Labour would have to win the vast majority of that undecided vote, or win over some of those expressing a VI, to make it close.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36106564659280534222015-04-14T09:23:55.243+01:002015-04-14T09:23:55.243+01:00Demographics though are in the favour of the Yes v...Demographics though are in the favour of the Yes vote providing they don't emigrate. I couldn't blame anybody for getting out though. Well not Yes voters at least.Iain Morenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55731303026028403992015-04-14T09:19:15.693+01:002015-04-14T09:19:15.693+01:00Labour clinging on to the hope that the don't ...Labour clinging on to the hope that the don't knows will break for them, fair enough, but it won't happen.<br /><br />The simple fact is, that earlier polls who asked voters who had expressed a preference, showed that while very few SNP voters felt they might change their minds about who they would vote for, far more Labour voters said they were open to voting SNP.<br /><br />I would be confident in saying that a lot of the don't knows, who are not the normal, not likely to vote at all, will in fact be previous Labour voters who have been scunnered by Jim Murphy, so don't know if they will vote Labour...and most of them wont.<br /><br />Will they switch to another party? who knows, but I'd imagine that a lot of them will be seeing the rise in SNP % point in polls, and the human herding instinct will cause them to have a far closer look at what the SNP are saying. Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26768357425168622662015-04-14T07:49:25.167+01:002015-04-14T07:49:25.167+01:00If 56% of the total electorate gave a firm voting ...If 56% of the total electorate gave a firm voting intention and 78% of the total electorate are certain/very likely to vote, surely that still leaves c. 28% of those certain/likely to vote who have not given a voting intention. Or have I misunderstood your figures?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42643072352905589702015-04-14T00:26:16.846+01:002015-04-14T00:26:16.846+01:00http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/...http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/if-yolk-sticks.htmlRolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33178143262935920162015-04-13T23:59:49.035+01:002015-04-13T23:59:49.035+01:00Yeah I think there is something to this. I reckon ...Yeah I think there is something to this. I reckon men liked Salmond's style better, and now women are impressed by Stugeon: net result for SNP is best of both worlds with strong support from men already baked in and support from women on the rise. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32377045448436884882015-04-13T23:54:23.171+01:002015-04-13T23:54:23.171+01:00LPW = Lallands Peat Worrier.LPW = Lallands Peat Worrier.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28363466041505100202015-04-13T23:52:30.447+01:002015-04-13T23:52:30.447+01:00My gran voted No. So I'm rather in favour of p...My gran voted No. So I'm rather in favour of persuading people to change their mind rather than waiting for them to die off. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20448562972662427032015-04-13T23:50:03.384+01:002015-04-13T23:50:03.384+01:00Who is LPW? Link? Who is LPW? Link? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37306992195879782192015-04-13T23:47:12.905+01:002015-04-13T23:47:12.905+01:00Half expecting Labour renegades to start claiming ...Half expecting Labour renegades to start claiming they're losing this election on purpose so they can make a dramatic comeback next time. Not as ludicrous as some clutching at straws comments from Labour. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18222906627175035012015-04-13T23:06:44.509+01:002015-04-13T23:06:44.509+01:00I think the problems the Unionist parties are faci...I think the problems the Unionist parties are facing is that, simply put, people don't believe them any more. I have a lot of time for Julian Treasure's theory as laid out at the TED conference last year (https://www.ted.com/talks/julian_treasure_how_to_speak_so_that_people_want_to_listen/transcript?language=en) basically boils down to be decent, honest, enthusiastic, and have respect for others. <br /><br />Jim Murphy in particular fails on all of these metrics, and in the age of old media maybe he could have got away with it. Now his sneering mug is seen, shared, discussed, critiqued, disregarded and eventually lambasted by hundreds of thousands of people within minutes of an appearance in the MSM. Net effect is that every appearance, every sneer, every bully boy interruption contributes to the drip, drip, drip of Scottish Labour's spiral of blood letting and eventual recriminations. Scottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89050985404658332092015-04-13T22:47:42.260+01:002015-04-13T22:47:42.260+01:00We've all been saying, this can't happen a...We've all been saying, this can't happen at the actual election. It's impossible. The SNP is bound to slip back a few points. Over 30 seats will be astonishing.<br /><br />Yes, sure, consider it all said.<br /><br />But you know, the opposite could happen. There is a tide in the affairs of men, and all that. This could just bandwagon into something completely unanticipated. LPW has an interesting article about how Murphy is on a losing wicket in everything he does.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31819082281924464782015-04-13T22:34:20.020+01:002015-04-13T22:34:20.020+01:00Some anecdotal info for you. I am in Moray I have ...Some anecdotal info for you. I am in Moray I have been canvassing my neighbourhood as I did during the Yes campaign. I would say that all the Yes voters are swinging in behind SNP. There are 7 new folk in the neighbourhood since the Referendum, score is 5-1 SNP over Tory with one UD. Nobody votes Lib or Labour in my neighbourhood any more. Last Labour voters died a few weeks ago. 5 folk have died since the referendum, 1 Yes voter and 4 No voters. So from my neighbourhood Yes vote has gone from 63% Yes to 67%. I wonder if that is pattern being experienced elsewhere in Scotland. 2 No voters have actually emigrated since then and riddance to them. Iain Morenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2311398395192043322015-04-13T22:33:05.619+01:002015-04-13T22:33:05.619+01:00It might be a combination of women liking Nicola a...It might be a combination of women liking Nicola and actively disliking Murphy.Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84024079956189794982015-04-13T21:55:08.036+01:002015-04-13T21:55:08.036+01:00A big chunk of that 29% won't vote at all. Cer...A big chunk of that 29% won't vote at all. Certain to vote was 67% and very likely to vote 11%. 56% expressed a firm VI, so that leaves ~15% of the total electorate who are undecided but will vote.<br /><br />I suspect more of that group will be unionist, undecided as to which party to support. We saw something similar in the referendum. Yes support hardened with about a month to go, giving some very good polls (the one lead and a few near things). Later on more of the remaining undecideds broke to no, and there was a higher turnout than expected.<br /><br />Coming back to this election, that pool of 'undecided' voters should close the gaps somewhat, but it's totally unrealistic to expect that to overturn such a clear lead.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43379183081616660262015-04-13T20:44:18.691+01:002015-04-13T20:44:18.691+01:00Not anonymous Thomas WIlliam Dunlop, Kuopio, Finla...Not anonymous Thomas WIlliam Dunlop, Kuopio, Finland<br /><br />I am a it worried about the undecideds. Could it be the case of shy unionist voters, not wanting to disclose their intentions. How much of them would have to cast this vote tactically against the SNP to make a difference? 29 % undecided is still greater than the 28 % lead the SNP enjoys, so it may be very tight in a lot of seats at the end. <br />However my opinion, this unlikely as it would need to see almost every undecided plump for Labour/ LibDEm depending the seat in question to make a difference.<br /><br />I think we might see the Scottish electorate astound us and deliver a clean sheet for the SNP ( and "granny" the opposition). Just like 2011 againAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11685160333321575562015-04-13T20:31:15.316+01:002015-04-13T20:31:15.316+01:00Well that's interesting because I was wonderin...Well that's interesting because I was wondering what effect the Smear memo, then the shouting and bullying of Nicola would be having, particularly on women.<br /><br />If you look at this poll as well as the YouGov one, you see an SNP increase of about 5%, I wonder if this is women now making up their minds, based on the disgusting behaviour shown towards Nicola?<br /><br />Hope so.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13369602394538369222015-04-13T19:18:27.998+01:002015-04-13T19:18:27.998+01:00James I have not posted before, but I have been ou...James I have not posted before, but I have been out canvassing yesterday and today. in a traditional Labour heartland of the heartlands in Glasgow. What struck me , I have been canvassing from the late 90s onwards, is the number of woman especially woman under 40 that are solid SNP.. I know this is totally anecdotal based on a colleague`s and my own canvassing.Nicola seems to be extremely popular with this group . Is anything showing up in polls to back my observation Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55843643304371868092015-04-13T19:02:20.314+01:002015-04-13T19:02:20.314+01:00You just know that they aren't finished withy ...You just know that they aren't finished withy the dirty tricks. I wont even put the radio on tomorrow morning in case it starts spinning and spraying vomit. These polls will only further increase the Press and Media tirade against SNP. I dare not put on TV in case it explodes.Iain Morenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39173100127841847192015-04-13T18:57:38.102+01:002015-04-13T18:57:38.102+01:00It ain't over till the fat lady sings. You ne...It ain't over till the fat lady sings. You never know when a Hail Mary pass will succeed at the last. <br /><br />I'm keeping on working on it. bjsalbanoreply@blogger.com