tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post4171521609727963713..comments2024-03-18T22:55:22.060+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Poll of Polls update, and a response to "Alligator Man"James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54719373864208273062014-10-08T14:55:28.682+01:002014-10-08T14:55:28.682+01:00Kevin, yes the vow was a reason, 1st time voters o...Kevin, yes the vow was a reason, 1st time voters or ones who had not voted in a while were swayed by this. They want change but were never fully convinced due to media attacks. Offer them more powers and they will go for that.<br /><br />My hone owning yes leaning but voted no mates were swayed by interest rates, which was never fully explained by anyone. We need to get smarter.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9069907050423981142014-10-08T14:35:50.078+01:002014-10-08T14:35:50.078+01:00Helpful though it is to make the distinction betwe...<br />Helpful though it is to make the distinction between precision and accuracy...actually it's neither...it's reliability.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62668361996814251292014-10-08T07:19:30.901+01:002014-10-08T07:19:30.901+01:00Also:
Thinking about Labour leader Ed Miliband, w...Also:<br /><br /><i>Thinking about Labour leader Ed Miliband, which of the following qualities do you think he has? Please tick all that apply.<br /> <br />15% In touch<br />15% Honest<br />12% Sticks to what believes in<br />3% Decisive<br />4% Strong<br />2% Good in a crisis<br />1% A natural leader<br />2% charismatic<br /> <br />64% None of these</i><br /> <br />As usual, Dave doing a little better on 58% None. Clegg on 76% None.<br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32241355192513481742014-10-08T07:09:04.950+01:002014-10-08T07:09:04.950+01:00Morn's Yougov:
47% SNP
26% Lab
14% Con
6% Lib...Morn's Yougov:<br /><br />47% SNP<br />26% Lab<br />14% Con<br />6% Lib<br /><br />RE MoE...<br /><br />Folks should note that margin of error is precision, not accuracy. <br /><br />So, +/-3% means two polls conducted on two demographically matching groups on the same day using the same methods should yield the same VI answers within +/-3%. That doesn't mean the answers are correct; they could be 10% out. The 10% would be the accuracy error.<br /><br />I could have a temperature probe that precisely gives me the boiling point of water as 75 C +/-0.003 ever time. Very precise, but totally inaccurate.<br /><br />As there is no way to measure accuracy (we'd need an election for that at least), we're left with precision alone.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16053815434994712202014-10-07T23:56:37.021+01:002014-10-07T23:56:37.021+01:00"If you are now claiming polls are 'corre...<i>"If you are now claiming polls are 'correct' when results lie within the window of margin of error"</i><br /><br />That's a more complicated issue, and that's not exactly what I am saying. If the true position is 36%, a pollster shouldn't be getting a sequence of results like : 39%, 38%, 39%, 39%, 38%, even those are all strictly speaking within the MOE. But a sequence of 35%, 37%, 39%, 34%, 36% would be perfectly normal.<br /><br />Margins of error for subsamples are of course much bigger, and if those subsamples aren't separately weighted then the MOE isn't strictly calculable.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60601233907388630222014-10-07T23:51:02.035+01:002014-10-07T23:51:02.035+01:00If you are now claiming polls are 'correct'...If you are now claiming polls are 'correct' when results lie within the window of margin of error shouldn't you and the pollsters show their results with -+3% attached or whatever figure is correct depending on sample size, and presumably other additions for non-statistical errors. <br /><br />And I would be grateful if you could clarify for me...do internal bits of poll data when shown broken down in the Tables have the same -+3% margin, or does each bit have a different error margin depending on the bit sample size?<br /><br /><br />James Colemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23051774223909547452014-10-07T22:27:13.263+01:002014-10-07T22:27:13.263+01:00"But the results which were obtained were lit...<i>"But the results which were obtained were little better than would be expected from guesswork."</i><br /><br />Why do you say that?<br /><br /><i>"And explain please how 3 Indy Ref polls by YOUGOV within a week gave such different answers."</i><br /><br />Which ones? There was the sudden surge, which may or may not be plausible, but after that all the results were within the margin of error.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80440237333693623532014-10-07T22:23:54.575+01:002014-10-07T22:23:54.575+01:00"But either way, the earlier polls were still..."But either way, the earlier polls were still scientifically conducted, and weren't guesswork."<br /><br />Alright I'll grant you they were conducted scientifically. But the results which were obtained were little better than would be expected from guesswork. RIRO. <br /><br />And explain please how 3 Indy Ref polls by YOUGOV within a week gave such different answers. Covering their asses comes to mind?James Colemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40894341979857644642014-10-07T21:57:28.489+01:002014-10-07T21:57:28.489+01:00James, please delete drivel like the comment at 21...James, please delete drivel like the comment at 21:46.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91870692070245094972014-10-07T21:46:45.597+01:002014-10-07T21:46:45.597+01:00We had a 10% lead in eve of vote polling and the B...We had a 10% lead in eve of vote polling and the BritNats ended up with a poll lead of 10% - utter B.S. - they stole the vote and it was a 3 pronged attack done like this :<br /><br />a) MI5 hacked into all 32 local authority electoral registries and added the necessary many many thousands of phoney names ad addressses to the roles and then downloaded the postal votes, signed them with phoney signatures and sent them off.<br /><br />b) BritNat Labourites did their usual of collecting all the postal votes in old folks homes and deprived areas and chucked away the YESs in the bin.<br /><br />c) BritNats (especially English resident BritNats) registered aunties, uncles cousins etc as voters and gave them a NO postal/proxy vote.<br /><br />We lost this before the first vote was cast.Steviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18226832161404154663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72513742948919359402014-10-07T20:34:03.518+01:002014-10-07T20:34:03.518+01:00This was a more difficult poll than usual
High Tu...This was a more difficult poll than usual<br /><br />High Turnout,16,17 year olds,1st time Scotland's been.asked <br /><br />45% YES, is solid ground for a federal Union at leastwaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03242753707412340371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5959911483413290152014-10-07T20:13:57.180+01:002014-10-07T20:13:57.180+01:00James, I think Fourfolksache is referring to the Y...James, I think Fourfolksache is referring to the YouGov research publicised by Ailsa Henderson (Edinburgh Uni). It found that each age bracket up to 50 (16-29, 30-39 and 40-49) supported independence, but the over 70s in particular were very heavy against. It also found that within the 16-29 group the majority for independence pretty much all came from 25-29 y/o; 16 & 17s were slightly against and 18-24 were slight in favour.<br /><br />She believes that if the campaign had gone for another week the outcome would have been closer, because the economic arguments for no were losing power as it went on.<br /><br />12 minute youtube video in this article:<br /><br />http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/news/what-next-scotland-youtube-footage-why-scots-voted-no-professor-ailsa-henderson-university<br />Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43253507998916734902014-10-07T20:11:48.159+01:002014-10-07T20:11:48.159+01:00"Weeks and months out the polls were no more ...<i>"Weeks and months out the polls were no more than guesses."</i><br /><br />They weren't guesses - they were snapshots of opinion, based on (for the most part) the same methodology used in the later polls. The alternative interpretation is the one put forward by Scottish Skier, who thinks that people weren't being honest with the pollsters until a very late stage. But either way, the earlier polls were still scientifically conducted, and weren't guesswork.<br /><br />And I'm scarcely one for bigging up the pollsters - I spend half my life criticising them, and I've done so again in this very post.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10361243766455828272014-10-07T20:02:51.122+01:002014-10-07T20:02:51.122+01:00"There was a kind of mythology doing the roun..."There was a kind of mythology doing the rounds that the 2011 election somehow proved that polls were completely useless, but in fact (with the important exception of YouGov) most firms were fairly close to the mark with their final call in 2011, albeit only on the constituency vote."<br /><br />Ah but, their final call came within a few days of the actual vote when everything was becoming polarised. Weeks and months out the polls were no more than guesses. <br /><br />James I do wish you would stop bigging up the pollsters. We KNOW they give "reasonable results within a few % points of the actual result". But in most votes a "few % points" are crucial to the outcome. James Colemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33692010685283143682014-10-07T18:00:22.187+01:002014-10-07T18:00:22.187+01:00Fourfolksache : I didn't go into it in huge de...Fourfolksache : I didn't go into it in huge detail, but I did write a post comparing the age-related findings of Ashcroft and YouGov. I pointed out that they both agree that a majority of under-55s voted Yes (the only way it could be argued that YouGov don't show that is by assuming that 55-59 year olds broke for Yes, which seems unlikely). Ashcroft's 'Mickey Mouse' subsample was actually for 16 and 17 year olds only - if you lump them in with 18-24 year olds, it's a perfectly normal sample size.<br /><br />As far as I'm aware, constituency results have only been released at the discretion of councils.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58157519422205185762014-10-07T17:53:23.680+01:002014-10-07T17:53:23.680+01:00Slightly off topic but are you going to analyze th...Slightly off topic but are you going to analyze the latest YouGov reaearch of which subgroups voted which way? For example this blows Ashcroft's suggestion (with Mickey Mouse subsample) that the 16-20 yr old's voted Yes overwhelmingly.<br />Also can you tell me where the individual referendum constituency voting patterns can be found? I've a number of places quoted so presume this freely available?Fourfolksachehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12651190231842907126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27894730455846802232014-10-07T17:20:03.586+01:002014-10-07T17:20:03.586+01:00Really interesting reading.
Chalks, interested in...Really interesting reading.<br /><br />Chalks, interested in yes voters and yes leaning voters that voted no, I have not met anyone who did that.<br /><br />We live in a vast land so I'm not doubting at all, but curious to hear their reasons. Did "the vow" swing it for them? <br /><br />I know of 3 no/on the fence voters who on polling day said ''Ah flip it"and went yes<br />Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34962689479348254652014-10-07T17:19:14.803+01:002014-10-07T17:19:14.803+01:00All quite strange. A 'correction' being u...All quite strange. A 'correction' being used? Methodology not released. If the polls are 'nearly' right on the day before and 'very nearly' right the day after what use are they? The referendum was won with turnout. If Glasgow had secured 100% turnout how much closer might it have been? In Inverclyde it was less than 100 votes and STILL folk complained the next day despite not having bothered to vote. So worried by this were local authorities they actually PUBLICISED the fact they'd use the new voters info to check for old debts, having ALREADY written out to registered voters telling them they're Council Tax info didn't match their address. In the face of this I'm surprised anyone voted. A case of 'if you can't win, disenfranchise the voters' as you could argue they do in the USA. The YES parties will have to campaign as hard for voter registration for the next election. The NO vote got 55.3% of an 84% who turned out of the 97% who registered to vote. So that's 46% of all of those who could've registered then voted! Its food for thought..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80997504247817688572014-10-07T16:42:31.403+01:002014-10-07T16:42:31.403+01:00http://www.callfirstcontact.com/
Looks like a mix...http://www.callfirstcontact.com/<br /><br />Looks like a mixture of private polling and the nationbuilder/activate system....obviously analysed the swing to yes that occured but and this is a guess, they wouldn't have had the time to pick up on the loss of confidence on the doorsteps after the vow, as canvassers were concentrating on undecideds favouring yes on a scale of 7,8,9....not nailed on yessers.<br /><br />We all know yes voters that voted no and people leaning to yes that voted no. It just wasn't possible to updae this information, that's my logical assumption as to why yes thought they had it....not enough time to work out that people had moved<br />chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91694088074849955112014-10-07T16:15:20.673+01:002014-10-07T16:15:20.673+01:00Chalks : All we know for sure (or more or less for...Chalks : All we know for sure (or more or less for sure) is that there was one private poll for the No campaign that gave Yes a 53-47 lead, and that was what led to the blind panic, the shock and awe campaign, and ultimately The Vow. The impression I get is that this happened at around about the same time as the YouGov poll put Yes 51-49 in the lead, so it wasn't necessarily out of line with what the public polls were showing.<br /><br />As for the Canadian research for the Yes campaign that gave Yes a 54-46 lead, I'm not sure whether that was conventional polling or not. I'd be interested to know which methods they used.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78678685011526855342014-10-07T16:09:39.375+01:002014-10-07T16:09:39.375+01:00James, one thing that has been bugging me, you mi...James, one thing that has been bugging me, you might not know, but why were the private polling of both campaigns saying yes were in the lead, when the public polling wasn't?<br /><br />Were they polling a bigger amount of people?chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47400002457043367752014-10-07T15:28:29.456+01:002014-10-07T15:28:29.456+01:00"either campaign should have been able to pre...<i>"either campaign should have been able to predict the result"</i><br /><br />Only up to a point - the disparity between the Yes/No breakdowns in different demographic groups could only be very roughly estimated, so any extrapolation would have been highly speculative - and in any case would (as you hint in your final sentence) have been conditional on there being no swing after postal voting got underway.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79801679768756571662014-10-07T15:19:33.839+01:002014-10-07T15:19:33.839+01:00"And postal vote sampling would have been of ..."And postal vote sampling would have been of limited use, because it was always speculated that postal voters were disproportionately likely to be in the No column for demographic reasons." Not really. The campaigns know, if they wanted to find out, the detailed demographics of the postal vote population. With the estimates of postal vote breakdowns by constituency and the demographic breakdown of postal votes in each constituency (gender, SIMD, even age) and the demographics of the national population, either campaigbn should have been able to predict the result. The unknowable in this is due to temporal swings not demographics.Shale Binghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10815856479057665374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86097593643019250722014-10-07T14:26:55.912+01:002014-10-07T14:26:55.912+01:00Another point about the betting odds is the possib...Another point about the betting odds is the possibility that money was being put on No precisely to skew the odds. Of course it can't be proven, but when bets of £800,000 are being reported on one side of a binary choice which is clearly not a racing certainty and the odds are extremely poor, one may at least be suspicious.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64446364031835292022014-10-07T14:23:15.166+01:002014-10-07T14:23:15.166+01:00Couldn't agree more about the polls.
You didn...Couldn't agree more about the polls.<br /><br />You didn't see it so much on here for obvious reasons, but Facebook etc were full of nutters predicting 60/40, 70/30 for Yes, and that the poll figures were either total guesswork, or actively made up for propaganda purposes. I expect there's a significant overlap between these people and those who believe the referendum result was wholly fraudulent.keatonnoreply@blogger.com