tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post4110559132793999312..comments2024-03-28T22:27:24.624+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Two by-elections, two big swings to the SNPJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89413729031557924702019-08-30T23:41:22.231+01:002019-08-30T23:41:22.231+01:00Nope hes overplayed his hand, more importantly his...Nope hes overplayed his hand, more importantly his managed to piss off Bercow to a stage were he isn't going even try pretend to neutral and hes the one who says when the S24 debate is held. <br /><br />Boris has one card leave by the 31st whatever happens. Thats what got him elected, once parliament take that card from him hes finished. All going to shift very quickly next week.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383507212219496598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66523622837067959532019-08-30T21:40:36.438+01:002019-08-30T21:40:36.438+01:00If he asks Lab + Lib + SNP + Green to vote him out...If he asks Lab + Lib + SNP + Green to vote him out of office, do you think they'll say no?<br /><br />If so, the hard brexit will be their fault. <br /><br />I think he has overplayed his had, but maybe not sufficient to set him back in a GE. <br /><br />He needs shot of the DUP and N. Ireland. It's his only hope of delivering a workable brexit that keeps him in office. <br /><br />Now imagine Scotland goes indy and N. Ireland goes half way to reunification. He would be the first king of England. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54692744735207030192019-08-30T21:34:46.625+01:002019-08-30T21:34:46.625+01:00The people of Shetland or Bute or East Lothian cur...The people of Shetland or Bute or East Lothian currently have the right to self determination through their historic self identification as Scottish. So they vote as one with all Scots; an internationally recognised people who, through that recognition, gain the right to self determination under . <br /><br />If in the next census 50%+1 of folks in East Lothian nationally identify as East Lothianish (not Scottish), then we'd be into new territory and that would be their first step on the road to nationhood, i.e. collectively seeing themselves as a distinct nation. That's when international conventions on the subject start to kick in.<br /><br />Fundamental to all nations is the collective agreement that they are one. After that, you need the neighbours to agree.<br /><br />Anyway, there's another census coming in a few years so we can gauge the local picture. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-468972716618817522019-08-30T21:06:18.966+01:002019-08-30T21:06:18.966+01:00The PM has played an honest game and called out th...The PM has played an honest game and called out the remainer fascist idiots who are only loyal to their pockets and the Brussels elites. Those shits have no loyalty to their countries in the UK. GWCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38075802067793385552019-08-30T19:38:18.313+01:002019-08-30T19:38:18.313+01:00re; Anonymous, Shetland does not have a 'gover...re; Anonymous, Shetland does not have a 'government' though, and that takes time to set up, and to make it work, it would not be easy for them and would not happen overnight. <br /><br />Shetland like the rest of Scotland as far as I know, has been under Britnat English rule for 300 years. <br /><br />Do the people of Shetland ask themselves what that 'union' has done for the people and economy there? <br /><br />I am sure the government in London would look after them, if they decided to ditch an independent Scotland, and stay under the Britnats' rule, not! <br /><br />Shetland is also definitely not the only part of Scottish territorial waters to have lots and lots of oil either. hettyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14336425954068503728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45972898000909026362019-08-30T17:36:12.482+01:002019-08-30T17:36:12.482+01:00but he can't call a election, he has not got 2...but he can't call a election, he has not got 2/3rds of the vote. The opposition parties will simply say they won't agree to an election till no deal in October is off the table. As soon as it is he looses 2/3% to Brexit party. That's before as Rory Stewart hinted in a interview today he has to deselect 20 - 30 MPs including big names like Hammond because they will refuse to stand on a no deal if necessary Brexit ticket.<br /><br />Hes overplayed his hand and screwed himself. Before yesterday anti no deal MPs were divided, the whole Queens speech thing has united them. Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383507212219496598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10529444093738610502019-08-30T17:31:49.525+01:002019-08-30T17:31:49.525+01:00If we have a GE and the SNP clean up in Scotland -...If we have a GE and the SNP clean up in Scotland - can't we just declare independence? If it is in the manifesto we do not need indyref2 surely?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46072254915784428862019-08-30T17:22:33.408+01:002019-08-30T17:22:33.408+01:00Of course the SNP has already agreed that if enoug...Of course the SNP has already agreed that if enough people in Shetland indicate that they want an indy ref they would not object to one happening; no mention of them having to call themselves Shetlanders firstAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67319638565980002232019-08-30T17:18:14.968+01:002019-08-30T17:18:14.968+01:00At the end of the day, if there is a democratic re...At the end of the day, if there is a democratic referendum and the people of Shetland decided they wanted to become an independent country can't see any problems. Certainly an Indy Scotland would not stop them would it. It would be 'sorry to see you leave but good luck in the future'. With Scotland happy to see Shetland go can't see many countries not recognising Shetland and its becoming a UN recognised state. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8140197905377309642019-08-30T17:03:05.655+01:002019-08-30T17:03:05.655+01:00Polls have him winning a GE now without the DUP. S...Polls have him winning a GE now without the DUP. Still tight, but a few weeks more and he'll be looking comfortable on current trends.<br /><br />If the 'remoaners' manage to stop the UK leaving on the 31st, he'll likely win a huge majority, can dump N. Ireland to the backstop go ahead with the exit. <br /><br />This is exactly his strategy IMO. It also suits the SNP I suppose too, as they'll clean up in Scotland while brexit goes ahead, ergo iref2. If N. Ireland stays in the EU, Scotland will be following. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82125910726760927762019-08-30T16:55:31.078+01:002019-08-30T16:55:31.078+01:00My house and garden fits 3 of these. I'm presi...My house and garden fits 3 of these. I'm president. <br /><br />Also, this convention has only been ratified by 16 out of 195 countries. It’s only applicable to them; it’s not international law. Furthermore, the factors state don't define the right to self-determination, but what's required for final recognition as a functioning state; the stage after qualifying for self-determination. ‘To be a country you must have a government that other countries can talk to’ is a simple statement of the obvious.<br /><br />Here is our key convention:<br /><br />https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/ccpr.aspx<br /><br />“All <b>peoples</b> have the right of self-determination...”<br /><br />If folks in Shetland wanted to keep the indy option open in the short term, they were rather stupid in openly admitting to the world that they are <i>not</i> a people en masse in 2011 when everyone was consulted and 80%+ of them said they were Scottish. <br /><br />They were asked to freely state ‘What is your nation / your people’ and the vast majority of them said ‘Scotland / Scots’. <br /><br />Of course they are free to start nationally identifying as ‘Shetlanders’, which would be the first place to start on their journey to being recognised as a people and, eventually, an independent republic. For the moment though, they're not a distinct people (in majority) by their own admission. It's not my opinion, but straight from their own mouths. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47989393538640357802019-08-30T16:48:47.062+01:002019-08-30T16:48:47.062+01:00Fair point to rephrase 'Sheland' would be ...Fair point to rephrase 'Sheland' would be a UN recognised country.<br /><br />As for the other point I left Scotland when I was 10 and currently live in the Midlands. I never have been to or lived in east London though (i'm guessing that was the accent you were trying to emulate) :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8547412269730926462019-08-30T16:32:51.673+01:002019-08-30T16:32:51.673+01:00Yes, and with a slightly increased turnout, the LD...Yes, and with a slightly increased turnout, the LD lost votes.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26209347112822083012019-08-30T16:20:27.361+01:002019-08-30T16:20:27.361+01:00Best guess for next week S24 debate tabled on Tues...Best guess for next week S24 debate tabled on Tuesday, granted and the debate held on Wednesday. As s24 debates are no longer neutral this can theirfore be amended and parliamentary time alocated for other debates as happened earlier in the year. Thursday law to send Boris to ask for extension debated and passed, Lords have said they will sit Friday/Weekend if necessary so by Monday Boris will no longer be able to say defiantly leaving on Oct 31st and the ERG/Brexit Party will be turning on him. Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383507212219496598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76130025399143896612019-08-30T16:15:13.677+01:002019-08-30T16:15:13.677+01:00Do try getting the name right, Anon. It's &qu...Do try getting the name right, Anon. It's "Shetland", not "the Shetlands". I'm guessing you're from daan saaf?James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75744980014557748412019-08-30T15:55:53.740+01:002019-08-30T15:55:53.740+01:00To become an indypendant country you have to meet ...To become an indypendant country you have to meet the requirements set in the Montevideo Convention which are:<br />Defined Territory<br />Permanent population<br />Government <br />Diplomatic relationship with at least one other country.<br /><br />Shetlands has the first two and could easily get the second two.<br /><br />The go to UN get 9/15 votes in the security council (with none of the permanent members vetoing) and then 2/3 vote in the general assembly. Can't see any reason why would not get that (as long as Independence was through democratic route, ie majority in a ref). Once that's done The Shetlands would be a UN recognised country. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57308994791141091612019-08-30T14:41:35.473+01:002019-08-30T14:41:35.473+01:00Sure, as would e.g. a independent Lewis. However, ...Sure, as would e.g. a independent Lewis. However, both wouldn't get far with independence as they don't meet standard criteria for being distinct nations / 'peoples' as required for the right to self determination (otherwise, my hamlet could become a republic).<br /><br />Scotland passes with flying colours on every aspect here, but no individual part of it comes close. If that were the case, we'd have been dealing with our own internal independence movements as long as e.g. Britain has. The 'Lord of the Isles' party would be planning iref2 and whatnot. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66352337966293188352019-08-30T13:52:47.292+01:002019-08-30T13:52:47.292+01:00I've got decent money on Boris aiming for a ne...I've got decent money on Boris aiming for a new deal where the current backstop is re-negotiated with the EU to only cover N. Ireland. The ERG will happily vote for that; he just needs to dump the DUP and replace them with more Tories.<br /><br />Of course that means the end of the UK anyway as one part getting all the advantages of EU membership while the others don't / one part being devo maxed (which it would need to be) etc would be unsustainable. If we are not all ulitmately subject to the same parliament, then we are not the same country.<br /><br />So Scotland would shortly depart.<br /><br />A lot less messier than a hard brexit driven independence. <br /><br />Throughout this whole thing I have chatted with solid brexit voter. You are not going to change these people's minds and rightly, they are furious that MPs have not delivered brexit. As furious as Scot nats would be if our own MSPs didn't deliver on a Yes indy vote.<br /><br />So I cannot see brexit being reversed. It is going to happen, and it will cause the UK to break up.<br /><br />In time though, I think England & Wales will rejoin, at least the EEA.<br /><br />SNP really do need to now just let England cliff jump if it wants to. We have established they are not going to change their minds down there. If we get a GE before the 31st, I'm sure Boris will get his majority and that will be that. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31076228793454977182019-08-30T13:52:26.838+01:002019-08-30T13:52:26.838+01:00Lets' see what happens with Brexit first. Unt...Lets' see what happens with Brexit first. Until that happens I would not but any bets on the result of an indy ref. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47922873407750757222019-08-30T13:34:25.620+01:002019-08-30T13:34:25.620+01:00No, that's what would happen if Shetland decli...No, that's what would happen if Shetland declined Scottish independence and somehow managed to stay with Wales, England, and NI.<br /><br />If Shetland chose its own path without rUK or Scotland, its territorial waters would stretch from the Faroes to Norway and Orkney.Craig Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39493477933281603572019-08-30T13:31:33.268+01:002019-08-30T13:31:33.268+01:00The Lib Dem vote was down from 7440 in 2016 to 565...The Lib Dem vote was down from 7440 in 2016 to 5659 in 2019. So they got 1781 fewer votes and that is 24% of their 2016 vote.<br /><br />The SNP vote on the other hand was up from 2545 in 2016 to 3822 in 2019. An increase in their vote of 1277 or almost exactly a 50% increase on their 2016 vote number.<br /><br />A 50% increase in votes for the SNP compared with a 24% decrease in votes for the Lib Dems looks pretty good to me.Thepnrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02226960420529705745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73012783373412943812019-08-30T13:27:04.424+01:002019-08-30T13:27:04.424+01:00No. The idea of Shetland not being Scottish ( we a...No. The idea of Shetland not being Scottish ( we are told it's Danish and extreme English loyalists) has made its way to USA. It's presented as a given that if Scotland were to go Indy they would refuse and either stay with England and keep oil or join their Danish " cousins". It's on the business channels a lot.( Yes, we have that many stations that we have business news only channels!!) BillfromBostonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399762489266212680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3944587815492912992019-08-30T13:25:03.414+01:002019-08-30T13:25:03.414+01:00Ok, sorry, I misunderstood!
I was obviously playi...Ok, sorry, I misunderstood!<br /><br />I was obviously playing the devil's advocate anyway. :-)<br /><br />In iref2 we shall see many areas of Scotland vote Yes even though their preference was to remain in the UK. Such is the nature of brexit. <br /><br />55% voted for the UK in 2014 and 62% voted for the EU in 2016, i.e. the EU is measurably more popular. This is consistent with polling which has shown that brexit, particularly a hard one, will see Scotland pick indy in the EU over the UK. for some, it will be decision they'd have preferred not to make, but brexiters put a gun to their heads and forced them to choose. <br /><br />2014 was always going to be simpler to call for specific areas because it did not have memberships of 2 unions being pitted against each other somewhat. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80601709432576667912019-08-30T12:25:10.582+01:002019-08-30T12:25:10.582+01:00Good results to the SNP in both seats. Labour and ...Good results to the SNP in both seats. Labour and Tories did worse than I expected.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21706619007996729102019-08-30T12:11:22.571+01:002019-08-30T12:11:22.571+01:00I'm talking about a poll if Sheltanders wanted...I'm talking about a poll if Sheltanders wanted to be complete indy from UK and/or Scotland. So no not heading for over 50% in indyref2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com