tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post3797417420988182074..comments2024-03-29T11:42:10.238+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Prematurely relaxing restrictions on so-called "low-risk" groups is an exceptionally high-risk thing to do - unless you can somehow totally segregate the generations, which you can't.James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70226426187717228592020-05-14T21:51:13.794+01:002020-05-14T21:51:13.794+01:00Exactly, seasonal flu my arse.Exactly, seasonal flu my arse.Thepnrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49201792366790901802020-05-14T21:42:51.434+01:002020-05-14T21:42:51.434+01:00This ties in with the Spain figures and around a 1...This ties in with the Spain figures and around a 1% death rate, i.e. an order of magnitude worse than seasonal flu.<br /><br />Very, very far from 'herd immunity' too.Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78301277323332749312020-05-14T21:38:51.732+01:002020-05-14T21:38:51.732+01:00Too right:
Norway = 232 dead
Sweden = 3529 dead
...Too right:<br /><br />Norway = 232 dead<br />Sweden = 3529 dead<br /><br />Pretty clear which state did the better job!Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35696007827838942632020-05-14T21:36:54.812+01:002020-05-14T21:36:54.812+01:00It was Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific ...It was Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Officer to the UK government who said at Mondays press conference briefing that the ONS estimated around 130,000 currently had the virus and he then added that the total number of infected with the virus was 10% in London and 4% across the UK.<br /><br />He added that this information was a couple of weeks old and out of date.<br /><br />I can't find a better link just now but you can watch hime say it here: <br />https://sg.news.yahoo.com/boris-johnson-coronavirus-192546668.htmlThepnrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64947783329724130122020-05-14T21:32:34.531+01:002020-05-14T21:32:34.531+01:00nternational observers are keeping a keen eye on S...nternational observers are keeping a keen eye on Sweden, after it declined to shut down portions of its economy to try to contain the spread of coronavirus. Data analysis by Swedish newspaper SVT Nyheter appears to show that the country has had a similar epidemic curve to others that instituted strict lockdowns, although its death toll and infection rates have been far higher than neighbours in Scandinavia which closed down their economies quickly.Alba for Independencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02976605539450227099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15779812401962181682020-05-14T21:28:58.506+01:002020-05-14T21:28:58.506+01:00Covidia gives a new meaning to gross moral turpitu...Covidia gives a new meaning to gross moral turpitude.Chic Chickennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82722797128726042192020-05-14T21:21:45.857+01:002020-05-14T21:21:45.857+01:00Fair enough, it did seem rather low given Spain ha...Fair enough, it did seem rather low given Spain has concluded 5% from widespread antibody testing.<br /><br />https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-study/spanish-antibody-study-points-to-5-of-population-affected-by-coronavirus-idUSKBN22P2RP<br /><br /><b>Spanish antibody study points to 5% of population affected by coronavirus</b><br /><br />But 25%? That's every second household with a current or previous case.<br /><br />Bit of an embarrassing overestimate.<br /><br />And what's this political think tank the good Dr Adrian Heald works for?<br /><br />https://www.good-governance.org.uk/team_members/adrian-heald/<br /><br />Doesn't seem to have much experience with infections epidemics anyway.Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33827478441238676872020-05-14T21:15:55.806+01:002020-05-14T21:15:55.806+01:00Another early start on the turps for Covidia, then...Another early start on the turps for Covidia, then.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41338264232956046592020-05-14T21:10:18.360+01:002020-05-14T21:10:18.360+01:00Also, the report I am referring too is due to is a...Also, the report I am referring too is due to is actual test results and not an academic study so is far likely to be more reliable as an estimate of the current picture regards the numbers infected to date in the UK.Thepnrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62989764159123277092020-05-14T21:06:21.941+01:002020-05-14T21:06:21.941+01:00Scottish Skier that figure is those that currently...Scottish Skier that figure is those that currently have the virus and not those that may have had it and already recovered.<br /><br />There has also been a report on that figure this week which estimates that across the UK 4% have been infected and up to 10% in London.<br /><br />I cannot find the link now for where I read that as a google search for "serology testing" is now totally dominated by the news of the antibody tests approved today by Public Health England.<br /><br />One thing of note is that if the 4% across the UK is accurate then on the number of deaths so far attributed to Covid-19 then it would put the Infection Fatality Rate of the virus for the UK at 1.2%<br /><br />I'll look again for the link and post later if I find it.Thepnrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72418211229331095462020-05-14T21:01:34.197+01:002020-05-14T21:01:34.197+01:00I tell a lie it was two weeks.
One in 400 people ...I tell a lie it was two weeks.<br /><br />One in 400 people in England is infected with coronavirus, a survey of 11,000 people in households suggests.<br /><br />They were asked to carry out swab tests over the two weeks up to 10 May.<br /><br />This indicates about 148,000 people in England could be currently infected - 0.27% of the population.Alba for Independencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02976605539450227099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-628165978386478522020-05-14T20:59:59.284+01:002020-05-14T20:59:59.284+01:00Your confusing two issues, the 1 in 400 covers a t...Your confusing two issues, the 1 in 400 covers a time period of about a month significantly after the peak and doesn't include previous cases.Alba for Independencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02976605539450227099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9412840642564329522020-05-14T20:42:07.673+01:002020-05-14T20:42:07.673+01:00Your hatred of the English, their national identit...Your hatred of the English, their national identity, EVEL parliament and independence knows no bounds.<br /><br />All you want to do is force British rule on them.Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83405421398112310642020-05-14T20:39:16.907+01:002020-05-14T20:39:16.907+01:00Said researchers look a bit stupid now given wides...Said researchers look a bit stupid now given widespread testing shows it to be 1 in 400.<br /><br />https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066<br /><br /><b>One in 400 people in England has coronavirus, tests suggest</b>Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39016825352461922132020-05-14T20:08:31.235+01:002020-05-14T20:08:31.235+01:00I hear a one-armed black lesbian has just been str...I hear a one-armed black lesbian has just been strung up off a jubilee lamppost in Wootton Bassett for not supporting our troops, sorry, clapping patriotically enough. It's not as bad as it sounds, she was a Moslem.<br />Street Party! Waggle Your Union Jack! Stay Alert!Wann Iddicombenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64616321051286962172020-05-14T19:48:28.063+01:002020-05-14T19:48:28.063+01:00A new study published this week in the Internation...A new study published this week in the International Journal of Clinical Practice suggests that more than one in four people in the UK are likely to have been infected already by the coronavirus.<br /><br />The study, by researchers from the University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium, is the first to use case data from 144 local authorities on the number of people infected in their areas. From this data, the researchers calculated the R-value - the number of people infected by one person with Covid-19 – within each area.<br /><br />The data shows, they say, that more than 25% of people in the UK could already have had the virus by the second half of April – higher than previously thought.<br /><br />The researchers said the UK’s R value, which was over three at the start of the outbreak in the middle of March, was now “well below 1”. This tallies with data published by Public Health England, showing that the overall UK R-value is 0.7 with variation from 0.4 in London to 0.8 in Yorkshire and the north-east of England.<br /><br />Dr Adrian Heald from the University of Manchester, one of the researchers, said:<br /><br />Covid-19 is a highly infectious condition and very dangerous for a small group of people. However, a much larger group seem to have low or no symptoms and have been unreported.<br /><br />This study tries to provide an estimate of the number of historic infections – and gives us all a glimmer of hope that there may be light at the end of the tunnel.Alba for Independencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02976605539450227099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13873628265788607852020-05-14T19:40:20.940+01:002020-05-14T19:40:20.940+01:00Skier I have been missing your body count tally. H...Skier I have been missing your body count tally. Have you given up?<br />How many English that lived in Scotland have died from the virus. You are the main man with the figures! GWCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11869079475288761812020-05-14T17:51:57.114+01:002020-05-14T17:51:57.114+01:00Based on todays ONS results of the survey of those...Based on todays ONS results of the survey of those infected with Covid-19 between 27th Apr and 10th May showing 148,000 infected in England. One of the most interesting results was that there is broadly no age discrimination at all.<br /><br />What these results show is that those aged 2-19 were the group with the highest rate of infection.<br /><br />If those in this age group can spread the virus at the same level of other age groups then re-opening schools doesn't look to be that good an idea if y=the goal is to restrict the spread of the virus.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1260921625391902720Thepnrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32536379645344492112020-05-14T17:16:26.073+01:002020-05-14T17:16:26.073+01:00Yes, I agree, James.
The media are trying to port...Yes, I agree, James.<br /><br />The media are trying to portray it as if the young yins live in a vacuum and 'they'll not die so they should be back at school' as if the problem isn't really that they can still spread illness around plenty fine (and anyway some young folk have died and one's too many).<br /><br />The game is, of course, to "unlock the economy" by getting the weans back to school so they can force their parents back to work (because some would need to continue home schooling etc otherwise) but some chancers, see Oakeshott Isabel and Burley, Kay, are pretending it's because they care so much about education!Johnnynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7183762733920702152020-05-14T16:14:31.581+01:002020-05-14T16:14:31.581+01:00It really seems so!It really seems so!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75935481894478378002020-05-14T16:13:32.191+01:002020-05-14T16:13:32.191+01:00I take the point that comparisons between differen...I take the point that comparisons between different countries can be tricky, but one can, I think, reasonably compare the different Scandinavian countries, and in that case Sweden sticks out like a sore thumb from all the others, with a death rate that at one point was nearly 10x that of any of the others. And it still remains stubbornly higher.<br /><br />All for the sake of an unproven hypothesis that "everyone is going to get it sooner or later with the same eventual number of casualties, so best to let it rip in order to minimise the economic damage". Not even "herd immunity", and without any assurance of validity, not least when they have clearly failed to protect their most vulnerable. In retrospect they might be proven dead wrong, but by then it will be too late for the dead.<br /><br />The US seems to have had a total failure of self-discipline, and is now in effect going for the same strategy. If one can call anything they are doing a "strategy". Scientific advice is being increasingly marginalised and people are going to increasingly become unwitting victims of a deliberate intent to put money before people. In the end they are sadly likely to suffer far more damage to both.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-353791422261756612020-05-14T15:40:17.461+01:002020-05-14T15:40:17.461+01:00Nonsensical polling with nonsensical interpretatio...Nonsensical polling with nonsensical interpretation.<br /><br />Q: 'Would you vote for independence if the Scottish government completely resigns, leaving the country leaderless, the moment indy is signed off and Scotland stands alone?'<br /><br />Unsurprisingly has people a bit cautious about voting for independence, notably from those who support it most because if you didn't support it, you couldn't suddenly be more cautious about supporting independence. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37094671246680255092020-05-14T14:40:25.915+01:002020-05-14T14:40:25.915+01:00Is better that we do not thunk up things ourselves...Is better that we do not thunk up things ourselves.<br />This leads to breakdown of law and order and disrespect for Party Of The Institutional Revolution.Border Guardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79814453734844293992020-05-14T14:31:34.543+01:002020-05-14T14:31:34.543+01:00James, you have to take a look at Wings over Scotl...James, you have to take a look at Wings over Scotlands latest insanity poll where he poses hypothetical questions that he thunk up himself that could never actually happen then provides the definitive answers to his thunk up questions to prove the SNP are bad <br /><br />It wouldn't be so bad but the clowns are swallowing it as if it's a real thing, right out of the Farage and George Galloway playbookAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83547250666314166192020-05-14T14:18:39.124+01:002020-05-14T14:18:39.124+01:00Yes, I think we have a problem.
Muscleguy says:
...Yes, I think we have a problem.<br /><br />Muscleguy says: <br />14 May, 2020 at 1:49 pm<br />And of course all the SNP voters and members who throw their List votes away in defiance of mathematical reality. cf scotgoespop for an SNP tribal defiance of mathematics.<br />In pointless debate with him the best he could do was claim despite the polling they were not guaranteed a plurality of constituencies. Can’t be bothered asking him now even with them at 54%.<br />I predict a vast majority of SNP votes on the list.Winger On Loannoreply@blogger.com