tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post3432820091274099420..comments2024-03-29T09:07:50.569+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: What does UKIP's breakthrough mean for Scotland?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16678179627416527462014-10-12T17:56:04.254+01:002014-10-12T17:56:04.254+01:00"I've never really understood why Scottis...<i>"I've never really understood why Scottish nationalists love the EU so much. Why become "independent" but then hand over your independence to the EU?"</i><br /><br />Jesus. How many times have we heard that old chestnut? We're already in the EU. Can you honestly not understand how being an independent state within the EU, as opposed to being just a region of another state within the EU, marks a huge advance in self-government?<br /><br />As for your earlier point, it's true that there is a substantial working-class element to UKIP's support. There is also a substantial middle-class (and in many cases No-voting) element to the SNP's support. If the SNP's vote really was based exclusively on working-class Yes voters, they'd have cleaned up in Glasgow long ago, and would never have got anywhere in the rural northeast.<br /><br />It may be an uncomfortable truth for you, but a lot of people who would be natural UKIP voters in England are still with Labour in Scotland - and that's because there is something about UKIP that looks fundamentally alien to Scottish eyes.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75703565231298681112014-10-12T17:40:33.042+01:002014-10-12T17:40:33.042+01:00If the SNP/Yes movement didn't exist, I imagin...If the SNP/Yes movement didn't exist, I imagine UKIP would be a lot bigger in Scotland than it is. Obviously, the two parties don't tap into the exact same kind of sentiment. But both draw from a working-class feeling of disillusionment with the main Westminster parties, and a juxtaposition of a familiar "us" to a foreign "them" (London or Brussels). <br /><br />The immigration issue that UKIP capitalises on is not because the English are inherently more racist or more prone to far-right thinking than Scots are - it's just immigration is a far larger issue in England than it is in Scotland, which receives far fewer immigrants. There are several cities in England (London, Bradford, Slough, and others) where the majority of the population is not ethnically English. Scotland is more tolerant of immigration than the RUK simply because it has less of an experience of it. <br /><br />I've never really understood why Scottish nationalists love the EU so much. Why become "independent" but then hand over your independence to the EU? It makes no sense whatsoever. Same goes for nationalists in Wales and Catalonia. Atleast many of the nationalists in Veneto and Flanders are, I understand, anti-EU. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67654769354532842482014-10-12T10:16:47.872+01:002014-10-12T10:16:47.872+01:00"The June poll from YouGov, for instance, had...<i>"The June poll from YouGov, for instance, had a 55-45% lead for the stay in side - not exactly a "tiny majority""</i><br /><br />That was the outlier, wasn't it? Others have been much narrower. Are you employing some kind of counterintuitive "golden rule" that the most extreme outlier is more reliable than the average?<br /><br />As for polls asking voters to imagine how they'll react after some hypothetical, undefined renegotiation - forget it. Those numbers are utterly meaningless.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39733832263134821472014-10-12T01:59:38.263+01:002014-10-12T01:59:38.263+01:00@James "I presume that's "if you loo...@James "I presume that's "if you look at the polling and then make an adjustment based on speculative assumptions about how the campaign might play out". To the best of my knowledge, the only pollster that has even been showing the tiniest of majorities for staying in the EU is YouGov."<br /><br />I suggest you look at the polling in more detail. The June poll from YouGov, for instance, had a 55-45% lead for the stay in side - not exactly a "tiny majority" - but more important is the issue of renegotiation.<br /><br />Cameron's policy is to renegotiate membership and put it to a referendum. That's precisely what we did in 1975 - we had a very minor "renegotiation" (which amounted to nothing of any substance), put it to a referendum, and the stay in side won comfortably. <br /><br />If you look at the polling on that scenario it isn't even close - the aforementioned poll in June had an almost absurdly lopsided 72-28% split for staying in if it came after a renegotiation (once don't knows are excluded). When the issue is getting that kind of response years away from a potential vote and when UKIP are surging in the polls it's not much of a stretch to bet on the "stay in" side winning.Peter Wilsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41397177603123820442014-10-11T23:54:24.262+01:002014-10-11T23:54:24.262+01:00Then you're very foolish. The difference with...Then you're very foolish. The difference with the anecdotes about people who couldn't bring themselves to vote No in the polling station (and that was undoubtedly going on) is that we were only hearing one side of the story - that was being more than offset by undecideds breaking for No, and by differential turnout. But with people who were converted by the Wee Blue Book, that's a zero sum game, and there's no missing information.<br /><br />On your earlier point : yes, absolutely, people who were less well-informed and who had thought about the issues less were disproportionately likely to be No voters. That's something we've pointed out all along. It's our own failing that we failed to engage the brains of quite enough people, but what I find somewhat less credible is the notion that we should have attempted to do that with more bland leaflets, rather than with more Wee Blue Books (or an equivalent).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35589265133735607942014-10-11T23:27:27.423+01:002014-10-11T23:27:27.423+01:00There's certainly no doubt that the high stake...There's certainly no doubt that the high stakes made many more people focus on the referendum, people who otherwise didn't involve themselves in politics. Yet I don't think the levels of engagement were quite as high as many people think. From my own experiences, I met so many voters (Some of them very determined to vote) who had no idea about the arguments for or against independence. Many of them were very anxious about the implications of independence. Of course, their votes are worth just as much as any other so it was always clear to me that I would be better off focusing on them rather than concerning myself with passionate, engaged Yes supporters. It's best to stay away from activist bubbles as passion and engagement count for nothing at the ballot box.<br /><br />I heard a lot of anecdotal evidence of the Wee Blue Book changing minds. I also heard that twitter was abuzz on referendum day with tales from people about how their friend/dad/aunt/whatever was going to vote no but just couldn't do it when faced with the question in the polling station. I'm sure you could also find anecdotal evidence from the medieval era of witches. I don't take too much notice of anecdotes.Stroatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48687607776479383122014-10-11T23:09:53.334+01:002014-10-11T23:09:53.334+01:00Sounds like one of our friendly neighbourhood trol...Sounds like one of our friendly neighbourhood trolls has had a bit too much to drink.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51747358429721335572014-10-11T23:07:21.958+01:002014-10-11T23:07:21.958+01:00Hi everybody, it's dr nick!
Just to say don&#...Hi everybody, it's dr nick!<br /><br />Just to say don't know where panda gets the idea middleton and wotsit was about labour losing votes. They kept their share of the vote on a smaller turnout which by-elections always have. The UKIP surge was entirely down to the conservative and lib dem vote collapsing - those two parties had 50% of the vote in the 2010 results, and 17% last week.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014<br /><br />Trust me, i was right about the referendum after all.SayNoToYesMennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12423968471431649052014-10-11T22:55:45.998+01:002014-10-11T22:55:45.998+01:00I just have a fundamentally different worldview, S...I just have a fundamentally different worldview, Stoat. What you've just said reminds me of Tavish Scott claiming a few years ago that nobody in Scotland gave "two hoots" about an independence referendum - the thing that went on to generate unprecedented public engagement and the highest turnout since the introduction of universal suffrage.<br /><br />As for the Wee Blue Book, there's huge anecdotal evidence that it converted people who weren't remotely impressed by the normal bland/condescending leaflets. It's a revelation, but some people do actually respond more intelligently when they are treated as intelligent human beings. Then again, that was a lesson Thomas Paine taught us two-and-a-half centuries ago.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49326277041957218652014-10-11T22:46:16.375+01:002014-10-11T22:46:16.375+01:00I guess it depends on what our definition of "...I guess it depends on what our definition of "Big" means when we're talking about big differences. I suspect that a generous helping of fudge will be the order of the day. The unionist parties will try make it look like the most radical constitutional revolution mankind has ever known while the SNP will scream blue murder about how the Scottish people are being lied to and misled by the grand unionist cabal. Meanwhile the rest of the public will be sat in front of the TV watching something much more entertaining.<br /><br />As for my cynicism, I suppose I am guilty of that, but not without good reason. Detailed constitutional arguments are wasted on most people. Let's face it, the white paper was never going to take its place on anybody's bedside cabinet (Outside of the already converted and maybe the odd egghead academic type) and even the Wee Blue Book was more than most people wanted to read. Most people just want a quick little summary, put the mark on the ballot paper and just get on with their lives.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69081172757565596622014-10-11T22:30:48.756+01:002014-10-11T22:30:48.756+01:00Stoat : But that's different to the point you ...Stoat : But that's different to the point you originally made - you said that you doubted the Smith Commission would make much difference to anything. The UK parties promised extensive powers would be transferred, and then set up the Smith Commission to define the scope of those powers. By definition, then, it will make a big difference, unless we're being completely misled. Whether people have heard of it is neither here nor there.<br /><br />The way you've expressed your cynicism about both the Smith Commission and also the chances of the Wee Blue Book persuading anyone to vote Yes remind me a bit of the notorious "BT lady" ad - the message seems to be that nothing makes any difference to anything, so just shut up and eat your cereal.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75899796761562692392014-10-11T22:25:19.568+01:002014-10-11T22:25:19.568+01:00"In fact if you look at the polling I doubt i...<i>"In fact if you look at the polling I doubt if push came to shove an EU referendum would even be particularly close - another 55-45% to stay in would be a conservative estimate in my view"</i><br /><br />I presume that's "if you look at the polling and then make an adjustment based on speculative assumptions about how the campaign might play out". To the best of my knowledge, the only pollster that has even been showing the tiniest of majorities for staying in the EU is YouGov.<br /><br />On your earlier point, the difference between Scottish and UK views on the EU may not be overwhelming, but it is significant all the same. If there was a narrow vote to leave the EU throughout the UK as a whole, it seems inevitable to me that Scotland would have gone the other way.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48656691654258003292014-10-11T22:19:40.103+01:002014-10-11T22:19:40.103+01:00Anon at 6.35pm : That kind of absolutist thinking ...Anon at 6.35pm : That kind of absolutist thinking will get us absolutely nowhere. We have to take the gradualist approach, engage with the Smith Commission and use the general election to push for more powers. There are two reasons for that - a) it might actually work to some extent and produce at least some of the powers we want, and b) being seen to respect the result for now and push for more powers within the UK is precisely the way to "chip round the edges" of the 5% we need, and indeed to hold on to the 45% of people who actually voted Yes. James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68506703941887720352014-10-11T21:54:53.832+01:002014-10-11T21:54:53.832+01:00Correct James, I was the Better Together activist ...Correct James, I was the Better Together activist you were thinking of. My feelings regarding the Smith Commission were more in regards to how the average voter would look at it. I can't imagine that the average voter would take a great deal of notice of it, they would probably see it just a load of arcane constitutional mumbo jumbo, assuming they've even heard of it in the first place.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82876790290768822592014-10-11T21:12:52.008+01:002014-10-11T21:12:52.008+01:00"The tragedy would be if the English leave th..."The tragedy would be if the English leave the EU and pull Scotland with it OR England remains stuck in the EU against its majority wish because of the Scottish vote to stay in the EU."<br /><br />The chances of the Scottish vote being the deciding factor in an EU referendum are extremely low. What tends to happen here is we overstate how large the difference is between Scotland and rUK on the EU issue (Scotland is more in favour of the EU than England, but not by the kind of margin required to make a big difference when you factor in population). For instance a 52-48% margin in rUK, with an estimated 30 million turnout, would be a difference of around 1.2 million votes (so over three times the winning margin in the indyref, which had a record turnout). Just isn't going to happen.<br /><br />In fact if you look at the polling I doubt if push came to shove an EU referendum would even be particularly close - another 55-45% to stay in would be a conservative estimate in my view, particularly if the Tories were the ones in government. And that's a good thing because even if Scotland were independent we'd still be closely integrated economically with rUK and would have nothing to gain from them being outside the EU.<br /><br />UKIP and the SNP are only similar on a superficial level. They both stand on a platform of populist blame politics whereby getting rid of an external influence is assumed to be a silver bullet for society's problems. Beyond that they have next to nothing in common and I can hardly envisage any possible situation in which the two of them could work together. Peter Wilsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50119704947901244012014-10-11T19:48:20.149+01:002014-10-11T19:48:20.149+01:00If the Vow is broken then they can all take a runn...If the Vow is broken then they can all take a running fcuk at the referendum result! how's that!!!ThomasPotterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07988181694826109700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16808963267838999412014-10-11T18:35:06.189+01:002014-10-11T18:35:06.189+01:00No powers of any consequence will be devolved by L...No powers of any consequence will be devolved by London EVER, let me assure you. The revenues from whisky and oil are simply too enormous to let go of. If London lost these enormous revenues, the UK would be instantly bankrupt! London has already been forward spending the proceeds of oil and whisky for years now-how do you think cross rail, m25, and multitudes of other grandiose projects benefiting no-one but southern england have been financed, ffs!!<br /><br />The ONLY way Scotland is to move forward would be to “chip round the edges” of the remaining 5% we require to bring us up to 50% yes- however, most Scots regard the union as a comfort blanket and their mindset will not change-the younger Scots will be our salvation.<br /><br />Forget this commission-its only purpose is to delay, obscure, and ultimately deliver sfa to the Scottish peoples.<br /><br />Another referendum in, say, 3 or 4 years should do the trick!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56665786737933272452014-10-11T16:50:08.254+01:002014-10-11T16:50:08.254+01:00@Natasha, if an understanding could be reached wit...@Natasha, if an understanding could be reached with UKIP that meant England leaves the EU if thats what the English want and the Scots leaving the UK if the English leave the EU, that is indeed something to break bread over.<br /><br />The tragedy would be if the English leave the EU and pull Scotland with it OR England remains stuck in the EU against its majority wish because of the Scottish vote to stay in the EU. <br /><br />My goal is to see an independent Scotland that is on good terms with its "three nation neighbors."<br /><br />At some point in time, UKIP may be the key to the box.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1951734788648640822014-10-11T16:10:44.087+01:002014-10-11T16:10:44.087+01:00@George
Yuk! Common ground between the SNP and the...@George<br />Yuk! Common ground between the SNP and the UKIP? Over my dead body! :-)Natashanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83698153595625479622014-10-11T13:36:27.705+01:002014-10-11T13:36:27.705+01:00I think we all need to consider the practical and ...I think we all need to consider the practical and beneficial side of the UKIP emergence. <br /><br />UKIP is essentially an English Party. <br /><br />I think pro Independence factions need to get UKIP to answer the following;<br /><br />1. In the event that an EU referendum is held and the vote is to leave the EU, should Scotland have a second referendum vote?<br /><br />and/or<br /><br />2. In the event England votes to leave the EU whilst Scotland votes to remain in the EU should that be considered a vote by Scotland to leave the UK?<br /><br />I think it is possible that a UK vote could show the English want to leave the EU but there might be a large enough vote in Scotland to keep the UK in the EU!!<br /><br />The failed YES vote has created enough problems but if Scotland ends up keeping England in the EU it will only get worse!!<br /><br />Basically I think there is common ground between the SNP and UKIP in that Scotland should have self determination with regards to the UK and England should have self determination with regards to the EU. Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33171480444090385952014-10-11T13:19:38.294+01:002014-10-11T13:19:38.294+01:00@Marcia
I really liked that comment about the BBC ...@Marcia<br />I really liked that comment about the BBC being the political wing of the UKIP!<br /><br />@BuggerlePanda<br />I love the 'Smoth' thing; was it intentional or just a typo? I also relish the thought of being on of the Great Unwashed of Tartan Taliban.<br /><br />Thank you Alistair McIntosh. It's so comforting when someone puts their finger on what the problem is.Natashanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63428337509446557442014-10-11T11:36:56.946+01:002014-10-11T11:36:56.946+01:00Bugger Le Panda
I doubt if they had an effective ...Bugger Le Panda<br /><br />I doubt if they had an effective electoral machine for that as they would have very few previous canvass information to go on compared to Labour. The time between the death of the Labour MP and the by-election was not that long for them to build up enough information. The electoral tide on the day was in UKIP's favour helped no doubt by the political wing of the UKIP, the BBC.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5246980416048808772014-10-11T11:31:47.569+01:002014-10-11T11:31:47.569+01:00In the debate about areas where the SNP do well bu...In the debate about areas where the SNP do well but voted NO, I am not that concerned as people vote SNP for a variety of reasons, personal votes, Devo Max people in addition to Independence supporters. Alex Salmond aside we don't get over 50% regularly in the seat of the SNP Westminster seats. Hopefully the new influx of SNP members in these seats will help the on the ground campaigning up to polling day to get near or over 50%. Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76203178296914158042014-10-11T11:27:38.950+01:002014-10-11T11:27:38.950+01:00Marcia, maybe UKIP used a more sophisticated posta...Marcia, maybe UKIP used a more sophisticated postal voting algorithm?Bugger le Pandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15924663556503952533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26762376699265094822014-10-11T11:23:32.799+01:002014-10-11T11:23:32.799+01:00A good bulk of the Heywood and Middleton votes wer...A good bulk of the Heywood and Middleton votes were postal votes which given that Labour would do well in these means that UKIP polled better than Labour on the day. Labour who were very confident after the polls closed no doubt of the back of the postal vote sampling then started to worry. That is something to worry Labour if they cannot out poll the opposition on the day in a traditional Labour seat. Their vote is softer than we thought.Marcianoreply@blogger.com