tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post312169443776272424..comments2024-03-29T05:53:21.060+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Take a bow, SNP voters of Irvine Valley - you voted till you boaked, and stopped the ToriesJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72980677282552609402017-05-09T13:38:01.059+01:002017-05-09T13:38:01.059+01:00"So no real harm done."
No harm of eith...<i>"So no real harm done."</i><br /><br />No harm of either the real or unreal variety. A lot of good, in fact. And no reliance on "luck". That's the beauty of STV.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1307403743062644402017-05-09T09:55:39.214+01:002017-05-09T09:55:39.214+01:00That's true. So no real harm done. It's th...That's true. So no real harm done. It's the same reliance on luck in the last Holyrood election regarding whether to vote Green on the list or not.<br /><br />If anything there's been a lot of good fortune and skin of the teeth in the SNP's success. Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64906787797128918212017-05-08T22:53:34.061+01:002017-05-08T22:53:34.061+01:00He might as well just give up then. It's a we...He might as well just give up then. It's a well-known iron law of politics that no-one can compete against five Lib Dem leaflets. Four maybe, but five - not a prayer.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15058385435029247972017-05-08T21:58:52.986+01:002017-05-08T21:58:52.986+01:00Sorry but he's toast. Jo Swinson already has 5...Sorry but he's toast. Jo Swinson already has 5 leaflets out. He's very slow on the uptake.<br />Robert Andrewshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14986278779997677065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14490473664017130052017-05-08T21:05:01.302+01:002017-05-08T21:05:01.302+01:00Thanks for the answers. No difference - this is wh...Thanks for the answers. No difference - this is what I thought. But as anonymous points out, it does make a difference in that it makes it easier for people to use the method when they (understandably) feel extremely phobic about giving any vote at all to a Tory candidate.<br /><br />This might be a good alternative: "vote till you're about to boak".Gavin Alexanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01052576270287025957noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34185908654914667082017-05-08T19:55:53.051+01:002017-05-08T19:55:53.051+01:00This is a well-worn theme from you, and I've a...This is a well-worn theme from you, and I've already explained several times why you're wrong. Worrying about accidentally affecting the order in which candidates are eliminated/elected is daft - it's like being scared of your own shadow, and it will prevent you taking action that in the vast majority of cases will do good rather than harm. In this particular case it's impossible that harm could have been caused -<br />at worst the effect would have been neutral. But you've failed to prove that it would even have been neutral - as far as I can see you're relying on guesswork, and that really isn't good enough. Neither of us know what would have happened in the hypothetical scenario you're interested in, but what we do know is two things -<br /><br />1) The actual result is a clear-cut example of a Conservative candidate being stopped because SNP voters used enough of their lower preferences.<br /><br />2) If SNP voters had only ranked the two SNP candidates, the Tory would definitely have been elected. (As, indeed, would the Rubbish candidate, which makes the criticisms from Women for Independence even more puzzling. If people hadn't Voted Till They Boaked, they would have ended up with two "Tories" for the price of one.)James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64736176445530857072017-05-08T18:03:29.733+01:002017-05-08T18:03:29.733+01:00Where would the other 60% have gone? Surely not to...Where would the other 60% have gone? Surely not to the Tory candidate who was already ahead?<br /><br />If your advice would really have been to place the Rubbish candidate ahead of Labour then you would, in this particular case, have been wrong.<br /><br />Which is why, even though they didn't mention it, there might have been as many tweets against taking credit for something that if you bothered to check would have failed.<br /><br />Of those transfers that did happen it would only have taken 2 to vote for the independent as per you advice for that final elimination to have the true blue one vote ahead of the red.<br /><br />You seriously want to look at the actual result and congratulate the combined voter SNP or not who voted Labour.Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10535961469854247332017-05-08T17:24:41.715+01:002017-05-08T17:24:41.715+01:00No, this just isn't stacking up, Iain. What y...No, this just isn't stacking up, Iain. What you appear to be talking about is a 'utopian' scenario in which every single SNP voter followed my exact advice to the letter, which would mean using every preference, ranking Labour ahead of the Tories, and ranking independents ahead of both Labour and the Tories. In that scenario, you're correct that the Rubbish candidate would have reached the quota on the sixth count, BUT on the seventh count, almost 40% of her entire available surplus would have been SNP voters transferring direct to Labour. It's not at all clear why you're so convinced the Tory would have been elected. James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52609354204293664452017-05-08T17:09:24.219+01:002017-05-08T17:09:24.219+01:00Yes. Originally my argument was what if every SNP ...Yes. Originally my argument was what if every SNP voter had followed the place an independent ahead of a unionist. My original 400+ was based on the running total rather than just those dropped when the second SNP candidate was eliminated.<br /><br /> The point still stands. It was only because some of the transfers via that SNP candidate went to Labour that the official Conservative didn't get in.<br /><br /> The advice you gave certainly needs a health warning. Although by the sounds of it she is a bit of a fascist so you've a get out there.Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17323640229217587112017-05-08T16:42:18.683+01:002017-05-08T16:42:18.683+01:00Sorry, what was only 322 votes? Are you talking a...Sorry, what was only 322 votes? Are you talking about non-transferable votes? James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67582921877270379602017-05-08T16:13:20.483+01:002017-05-08T16:13:20.483+01:00I stay in the valley, I used the "vote till y...I stay in the valley, I used the "vote till you boak" tactic, thankfully so did others.jimnarlenehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04386665235191598525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74507014228546206662017-05-08T16:11:11.813+01:002017-05-08T16:11:11.813+01:00Basically you're advice if followed to the let...Basically you're advice if followed to the letter would have resulted in every one of the 111 votes transferred to Labour going to the Rubbish candidate. So they'd have already been bellow the Conservative. Any more the gap would have only widened.<br /><br /> Your advice, if stopping conservatives was the aim, was potentially self defeating in this case.Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8757432354057513432017-05-08T16:06:13.129+01:002017-05-08T16:06:13.129+01:00It was only just under 322 votes. Still the Rubbis...It was only just under 322 votes. Still the Rubbish candidate was only 121 short of making quota. If she had then in all probability that'd give the advantage back to the Conservative candidate. Although to be fair those 121+ extra votes would probable swing the balance towards Labour.<br />Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84751079228863759562017-05-08T16:02:57.700+01:002017-05-08T16:02:57.700+01:00"The votes for the SNP candidate who was even...<i>"The votes for the SNP candidate who was eventually eliminated rose from 551 to 605. Only 18 of those 54 extra votes came from the election of the other SNP candidate."</i><br /><br />You're repeating what I've only just said. I've no idea why.<br /><br /><i>"If people hadn't known the "Rubbish" candidate was a "tory" they might have followed your advice."</i><br /><br />The advice was to rank independent/fringe candidates ahead of the Tories unless they were fascists. As far as I'm aware, the Rubbish candidate was not a fascist, so the advice applied to her as much as to any other independent.<br /><br />The Rubbish candidate would have required another 121 transferred votes to reach the quota. Any surplus she'd have been passing on to the Tory would have been small (and by that stage would have been diluted by the SNP voters among her tally anyway).James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44863535829512811652017-05-08T15:51:08.994+01:002017-05-08T15:51:08.994+01:00Not all of those originated in the other SNP candi...Not all of those originated in the other SNP candidate. Not having every ballot to hand there's no way of telling how the SNP voters tactical vote went. The SNP candidate who got in was an incumbent as was the Labour candidate who also got in.<br /><br />The votes for the SNP candidate who was eventually eliminated rose from 551 to 605. Only 18 of those 54 extra votes came from the election of the other SNP candidate.<br /><br />Now this is where things get interesting. If people hadn't known the "Rubbish" candidate was a "tory" they might have followed your advice.<br /><br /> If those 452 votes dropped on the floor had predominately gone to her then she'd have been elected with a fairly substantial surplus. It would then have depended entirely on just how much those extra votes had swung the overall ratio of all the next preferences as to who amongst the remaining two candidates got a boost.<br /><br /> I'll give you a clue, if those voting for her knew she was a closet tory then it's highly probable the balance of those votes would have been towards the real deal.<br /><br /> In this case if more people who hadn't sussed out the independent and followed the pattern of placing an independent ahead of a "unionist" they would have actually elected the Conservative.<br />Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19011285156566573532017-05-08T15:26:43.745+01:002017-05-08T15:26:43.745+01:00Iain, once again, I have to say I'm slightly b...Iain, once again, I have to say I'm slightly baffled as to what you're getting at here. It was transfers from the SNP that stopped the Tory on the sixth count - that's an indisputable fact. The vast majority of those people voted SNP on first preference - we know that because the eliminated SNP candidate only saw her vote increase from 551 to 605 between the first and fifth counts (and about a third of that increase came from the other SNP candidate's surplus).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13401607521083480962017-05-08T15:00:35.796+01:002017-05-08T15:00:35.796+01:00You can read. You know what you're doing. You ... You can read. You know what you're doing. You might also be confident enough to ignore contradictory advice to the instructions on a piece of paper that might not even be in big enough print for an auld dear to read.Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73663989648547334912017-05-08T14:17:43.012+01:002017-05-08T14:17:43.012+01:00http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7OSYwCLdb4Y/VArRF9GLMmI/...http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7OSYwCLdb4Y/VArRF9GLMmI/AAAAAAAACCE/AtRqAUD54Nw/s1600/0045899.gif <br /><br />Seems pretty obvious to me. Anyone who can count past 10 without having to take their socks off should be able to follow those instructions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18457254285797101542017-05-08T14:13:27.144+01:002017-05-08T14:13:27.144+01:00Depends on the verbal instructions given. If someo...Depends on the verbal instructions given. If someone is told to mark only the candidates they prefer without saying to number them or that an X is valid without saying only one then that's poor guidance.Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71065942364638519082017-05-08T14:10:14.367+01:002017-05-08T14:10:14.367+01:00The actual results in that constituency are here, ...The actual results in that constituency are here, https://www.east-ayrshire.gov.uk/Resources/PDF/E/Election-2017/Detailed-Results-Ward-6-Irvine-Valley.pdf,<br /><br />Note that there's actually a shocking lack of transfers by SNP supporters. Although there might have been enough to produce that result.<br /><br />If anything it's more down to voters for independents who might be more in tune with the idea that if their first preference didn't get elected then they'd get another go.<br /><br />That said, if SNP voters had got on board with the concept then the "Rubbish" candidate might have received at least 500 votes meaning they'd be elected by passing quota and then things might have gotten really interesting as her excess got distributed.<br /><br />In reality it wasn't just SNP voters that told the Conservative to take a hike. It was a joint effort.<br /><br />As to who the would be Lib Dem voters would pick in the absence of a candidate, Scottish averages have them roughly 20% each to Labour, Conservative and independents and 10% to SNP, if I'm remembering it right with about 20% no transfer.<br /><br />Those are badly recalled figures and national averages.<br /><br />Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-769470780486792002017-05-08T14:08:16.464+01:002017-05-08T14:08:16.464+01:00For "sis" read "did". Fat fin...For "sis" read "did". Fat fingers.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16206952819245786811noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85892851486662832732017-05-08T14:07:07.566+01:002017-05-08T14:07:07.566+01:00Your vote sis what you wanted it to do, all the sa...Your vote sis what you wanted it to do, all the same. In both 2007 and 2012 the SNP councillor was elected to our ward as last man standing, so my vote didn't transfer at all and the fact that I hadn't given much thought to later preferences didn't matter. But it was fine. I wanted the full force of that vote on the SNP candidate and it did that.<br /><br />So with your vote. Your later preferences didn't come into play at all, so it was as if you'd simply put a 1 against your first preference. You didn't help the Labour candidates in any way. The point is, your vote was prepared to do something else if the circumstances had been different, so it was important to do the ranking anyway.<br /><br />This time, knowing our SNP candidate would get over-quota, I thought very hard about my later preferences and in fact that thought paid off. I wasn't left thinking, damn, if only I'd ranked the two Tories the other way round, or anything like that.<br /><br />It's absolutely clear what has to be done. Think long and hard about your true order of preference, including whether you prefer hard-core Tory over UKIP even, and then rank all the way down the paper. Stop thinking about a mark against a candidate as being a vote for, and start thinking about is as a score-card. Take pleasure in giving the Tories the worst scores you can.<br /><br />Then no matter how the count goes, your ballot is ready for any eventuality and your vote will do what you want it to do.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16206952819245786811noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61458407356802114722017-05-08T13:58:23.301+01:002017-05-08T13:58:23.301+01:00Tweeddale West.Tweeddale West.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16206952819245786811noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2988192713611762662017-05-08T13:57:33.227+01:002017-05-08T13:57:33.227+01:00I have some sympathy with that last comment.I have some sympathy with that last comment.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16206952819245786811noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72789705234936957222017-05-08T13:44:53.154+01:002017-05-08T13:44:53.154+01:00Oh excellent :) Ta. I can stop messing around now ...Oh excellent :) Ta. I can stop messing around now :)Johnnynoreply@blogger.com