tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post3023577990715920507..comments2024-03-28T21:29:30.104+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: This one will make your head hurtJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42394183027041757462014-05-08T09:42:31.080+01:002014-05-08T09:42:31.080+01:00Even more distressingly, they don't know how t...Even more distressingly, they don't know how to spell "bloc".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10603477527832689242014-05-08T05:43:27.462+01:002014-05-08T05:43:27.462+01:00Due to the almost total lack of published full-sam...Due to the almost total lack of published full-sample surveys of Westminster voting intention, people interested in Scottish politics have had to satisfy themselves with:<br /><br />a) the two big Lord Ashcroft Scottish polls last year, which are becoming ridiculously out of date<br />b) the monthly YouGov aggregates, with their fatally-flawed weightings<br />c) sub-samples of GB-wide polls, with their tiny sample sizes and lack of weightings<br /><br />An unsatisfactory situation all round. The political parties are of course measuring Scottish Westminster VI constantly, but we ordinary folks very rarely get a glimpse.<br /><br />Then, last month, a cheer went up! Populus joined YouGov in publishing monthly aggregates (for the Financial Times). Now we could see just how silly those YouGov weightings really were.<br /><br />Here is today's bang up-to-date Populus aggregate. The Scottish sub-sample size is 1,589<br /><br />(+/- change on last month's Populus aggregate)<br /><br />SNP 34% (n/c)<br />Lab 32% (-2)<br />Con 19% (+1)<br />LD 7% (n/c)<br />UKIP 4% (+1)<br />Grn 3% (+1)<br /><br />http://www.populuslimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/OmOnline_Vote_April_2014.pdf<br /><br />(The headline, published VI figures are at Table 4, Page 36)Stuart Dicksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08899934797220797186noreply@blogger.com