tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post291093856614743463..comments2024-03-28T12:14:08.731+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: The Ipsos-Mori mysteryJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69898104416238504102014-05-07T23:57:36.278+01:002014-05-07T23:57:36.278+01:00I suppose that might help explain your Labour man&...<i>I suppose that might help explain your Labour man's comment about "phone banks don't lie"</i><br /><br />Yes, maybe, although from reading his blog I got the impression that comment was based on anecdotes from anti-independence activists who had done phone canvassing, rather than hard numbers from a private poll.<br /><br />Ipsos-Mori haven't been completely immovable - they've shown No leads as high as 28 points and as low as 11. Barring a landslide it's unlikely that they'll ever show a Yes lead, but they'd probably have to be showing a No lead of 15 points or less by polling day for us to feel that we have a decent chance.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63493736967981550902014-05-07T20:41:51.578+01:002014-05-07T20:41:51.578+01:00That might explain this!<a href="http://inagist.com/all/464077443549372416/" rel="nofollow">That might explain this!</a>cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82492583720861141832014-05-07T19:56:53.182+01:002014-05-07T19:56:53.182+01:00I suppose that might help explain your Labour man&...I suppose that might help explain your Labour man's comment about "phone banks don't lie"..... still, it's one of those things you can't do anything about. Ipsos are not going to show anything near a Yes vote... ever! So either they are right and the polls are essentially imovable and there is not much you can do about that, or they are wrong and their methodology is crap.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36779214062327766122014-05-07T17:26:46.959+01:002014-05-07T17:26:46.959+01:00Yes, but the silence could also suggest a middling...Yes, but the silence could also suggest a middling sort of result as well. Suppose for example they got a No lead of 18% with Ipsos-Mori - that might look good for them at first glance, but it would in fact be a drop of 7% on the last comparable poll, so it would be difficult for them to publish it.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21595750901019497272014-05-07T17:16:23.429+01:002014-05-07T17:16:23.429+01:00You can be sure of one thing. If Better Together h...You can be sure of one thing. If Better Together had a poll they could talk up in any way, they would be out there shouting it from the rooftops.<br /><br />To me, the deafening silence is very telling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53973606347956762852014-05-07T16:03:49.122+01:002014-05-07T16:03:49.122+01:00The thing that struck me James, was how BT would s...The thing that struck me James, was how BT would suddenly re-launch their campaign, at a time when their did not seem to be any (known) polling evidence to show this was necessary. <br />I kept asking why a winning side would change the winning tactics, but no one had an answer, except the suspicion that BT were getting internal polling evidence that was showing a trend to Yes.<br />Had this internal polling shown the 'No significant change' that the MSM/BT keep telling us, then surely they would have continued with the winning strategy?<br />Every Change of strategy, is indication that another internal poll is showing that the trend is still with Yes, so Alistair Carmichaels announcement that the BT campaign will be more 'emotional' (haha) is a sure sign that Yes is still going in the right direction.<br /><br />This BT campaign will be the subject of many a uni/college 'politics course' showing what will come to be known worldwide, as the most inept campaign ever launched a dozen times.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.com