tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2642614144213804875..comments2024-03-29T04:11:41.539+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Ipsos-Mori consolidate their status as the extreme outliersJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74390278319957144002014-03-04T14:17:04.628+00:002014-03-04T14:17:04.628+00:00OK, I've done a rough calculation to reweight ...OK, I've done a rough calculation to reweight the Ipsos-Mori figures in line with last year's SSAS national identity data, and it comes out as Yes 32%, No 51%. That isn't directly comparable to the published headline figures because it isn't filtered by certainty to vote, but essentially it has reduced the No lead by about 7%. Not quite as dramatic as what Scottish Skier came up with, but certainly an indication that Ipsos-Mori should be taken with a pinch of salt.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13071202317478577742014-03-04T12:15:59.784+00:002014-03-04T12:15:59.784+00:00Thanks James. Although I still can't believe t...Thanks James. Although I still can't believe that poll, no one in the real world is experiencing what it claims. I personally know 5 people who have moved to yes in the last month (including a tory, oh yes, he made a right song and dance about it on facebook) but have yet to meet a single person in the world ever who has moved from yes to no. <br /><br />Sorry for the double post earlier, don't know what happened.Duncan Hotdogstallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18233487977575578002014-03-04T11:35:06.620+00:002014-03-04T11:35:06.620+00:00The Holyrood figures are current voting intention,...The Holyrood figures are current voting intention, not recalled 2011 vote.<br /><br />It's not really possible to make a direct comparison with the national identity figures in the census, because the census asked the question in a different way. But even comparing to the most recent SSAS, Ipsos-Mori's Scottish figures are a bit too low.<br /><br />As Oldnat pointed out the other week, the problem with making a comparison with the census figures on place of birth is that the census included children. I've tried to find the figures for 16+ only, but without any luck so far.<br /><br />I think what Scottish Skier does is take an average of the SSAS national identity figures over the last fifteen years, and adjust according to that. I'm not sure that's wise, because there's fairly clear evidence that Scottish identity has fallen back on the SSAS in recent years. So he's probably making too radical an adjustment.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89611183941392097892014-03-04T10:56:11.076+00:002014-03-04T10:56:11.076+00:00Hi James,
A glance through the data tables is set...Hi James,<br /><br />A glance through the data tables is setting off some alarm bells. I'm starting to wonder if I am looking at the wrong tables? Can you advise?<br /><br />http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/ipsos-mori-scotland-monitor-tables-february-2014.pdf<br /><br />On page 2 the table says "Party support Scottish Parliament Holyrood First Vote Constituency" Does this mean it is weighted to Holyrood? If so then the weighted SNP vote appears to add up to 36% (302/845). We all know the actual, real life vote was 45.4% http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/overview/html/scotland.stm<br /><br />The sample also seems to be less than representative of the general population when it comes to national identity. The chart of page 4 of the tables says that a total of 48% of the sample feel either Scottish only or more Scottish than British. Yet the most recent census data tells us that 62% of the population feel Scottish only. Conversely, 48% of the sample feel more British or British only, whereas the census data gives that figure as around 34%. <br /><br />Finally, the sample and census data depart again when it comes to place of birth: On page 5 of the chart it says that 78% of the sample were born in Scotland. The census says the figure is 83%.<br /><br />Therefore, it appears that the sample in this poll is far more "British" than you would find in the usual population and way less representative in terms of SNP voters. <br /><br />What is your analysis, James? Scottish Skier seemed to think that the result, when adjusted, should be more like Y 37, N 43 and DK 20, but the explanation wasn't very detailed.<br /><br />Census data from here : http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/news/census-2011-detailed-characteristics-ethnicity-identity-language-and-religion-scotland-%E2%80%93Duncan Hotdogstallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22545490574268214682014-03-04T10:56:08.028+00:002014-03-04T10:56:08.028+00:00Hi James,
A glance through the data tables is set...Hi James,<br /><br />A glance through the data tables is setting off some alarm bells. I'm starting to wonder if I am looking at the wrong tables? Can you advise?<br /><br />http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/ipsos-mori-scotland-monitor-tables-february-2014.pdf<br /><br />On page 2 the table says "Party support Scottish Parliament Holyrood First Vote Constituency" Does this mean it is weighted to Holyrood? If so then the weighted SNP vote appears to add up to 36% (302/845). We all know the actual, real life vote was 45.4% http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/overview/html/scotland.stm<br /><br />The sample also seems to be less than representative of the general population when it comes to national identity. The chart of page 4 of the tables says that a total of 48% of the sample feel either Scottish only or more Scottish than British. Yet the most recent census data tells us that 62% of the population feel Scottish only. Conversely, 48% of the sample feel more British or British only, whereas the census data gives that figure as around 34%. <br /><br />Finally, the sample and census data depart again when it comes to place of birth: On page 5 of the chart it says that 78% of the sample were born in Scotland. The census says the figure is 83%.<br /><br />Therefore, it appears that the sample in this poll is far more "British" than you would find in the usual population and way less representative in terms of SNP voters. <br /><br />What is your analysis, James? Scottish Skier seemed to think that the result, when adjusted, should be more like Y 37, N 43 and DK 20, but the explanation wasn't very detailed.<br /><br />Census data from here : http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/news/census-2011-detailed-characteristics-ethnicity-identity-language-and-religion-scotland-%E2%80%93Duncan Hotdogstallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62704419867641317552014-03-04T10:38:05.467+00:002014-03-04T10:38:05.467+00:00Michael : No, they don't weight by past vote a...Michael : No, they don't weight by past vote at all (neither Holyrood nor Westminster).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46415278846668230812014-03-04T10:09:36.946+00:002014-03-04T10:09:36.946+00:00"it's scary to think that we simply won&#..."it's scary to think that we simply won't know for sure until the real votes start coming in."<br /><br />I can see one benefit to yes in that though: some people may be a little unsure about independence, but have a preference for a lot more powers and have been turned off by the no campaign. <br /><br />If those people don't believe yes will win, but also feel a stonking no result will deliver nothing but an unbearably smug no and Westminster camp, they're more likely to vote yes in the hope a close result will bring them what they want.<br /><br />If the polls are actually skewed towards no, that could bring a yes victory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67018458987733760932014-03-04T09:56:11.378+00:002014-03-04T09:56:11.378+00:00Sorry, I see you made that point already.Sorry, I see you made that point already.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02872454975859620507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2344584318841183122014-03-04T09:52:20.149+00:002014-03-04T09:52:20.149+00:00Aren't they also weighting on 2010 GE results ...Aren't they also weighting on 2010 GE results rather than 2011 Holyrood?Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02872454975859620507noreply@blogger.com