tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2624091111399444286..comments2024-03-28T16:07:06.462+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: YouGov sub-sample : well I think that answers my question!James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77616924880732516002009-05-15T21:53:00.000+01:002009-05-15T21:53:00.000+01:00Jmaes
Ive no argument with you publishing these f...Jmaes<br /><br />Ive no argument with you publishing these figs - they do tell us something, and these figs are certainly encourging, beter than being behind etc. Id just not over egg them for reasons we probably both agree on.<br /><br />Ive also just been to the SNP's site and see its majored with a news release on this very poll. This explains - to me anyway - why most nat bloggers are bigging it up, though I accept you have published sub samoples in the past unprompted, and good, bad or indifferent<br /><br />Maybe it's just me that has not yet factored in we are in election mode!Alan Smarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08238599957331198637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23607571876215411652009-05-15T20:18:00.000+01:002009-05-15T20:18:00.000+01:00Aye We Can, I take some of your points (because I'...Aye We Can, I take some of your points (because I've made some of them myself), but for the record, over the last few months I've tried to report every sub-sample - I only missed a couple because I was too busy. I've reported quite a few that have been unfavourable for the SNP - admittedly my headlines have probably been a little more understated in those cases, but I haven't pretended those polls didn't exist.<br /><br />By the way, I accept that this sub-sample is not in any way <I>proof</I> that the SNP is 11 ahead points ahead of Labour, but I don't find it at all 'fanciful' that such a surge in support <I>could</I> have taken place in such a short space of time. In these circumstances, three weeks is an absolute eternity in politics.<br /><br />I also completely dispute your assertion that sub-samples routinely overstate the SNP's support and understate Labour's - after Glenrothes last year, we were seeing sub-samples putting Labour thirty points ahead. You'd be a brave man to call that an understatement.<br /><br />I've no idea whether I'll continue posting about the sub-samples, but if I don't it'll be more down to boredom than anything else.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63971100340235243122009-05-15T19:48:00.000+01:002009-05-15T19:48:00.000+01:00James
My advice - wait for a real all scotland po...James<br /><br />My advice - wait for a real all scotland poll. For reason I stated elsewhere, these sub samples of UK wise polls near always have a rural areas sample bias in Scotland that artificially boosts the SNP rating and under-reports Labour's.<br /><br />To remind folks, the last stand alone Scottish poll with was on 23 April in the Herald ( With a sample of 1000 and with it 50 plus balanced sample points across scotland) On Westmisnter voting intentions it reported:<br /><br />Labour 32% (-5)<br />SNP 30% (+3)<br />Tory 21%<br />Lib Dem 13%<br />Other 5%<br /><br />This was a good poll for the SNP, with momentum towards it. But the idea that in less than three weeks the SNP is now 11 points ahead of Labour fanciful<br /><br />I hope I am wrong. But I'll await for the next all scotland poll - and wait fovrever i reckon for nat bloggers headlines, "Massive slump in SNP vote, as Scots rally to Labour". Because that would be mince, but the logical headline after hyping up this non pollAlan Smarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08238599957331198637noreply@blogger.com