tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2619322967738204943..comments2024-03-28T12:03:01.501+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: One week on, have the Sunday Herald learned the lessons of their wildly inaccurate reporting on so-called "tactical voting on the list"?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73726414938538095332016-04-24T16:36:44.518+01:002016-04-24T16:36:44.518+01:00I hope I'm wrong to Douglas , LOL .I hope I'm wrong to Douglas , LOL .Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45063213701744563332016-04-24T16:22:52.925+01:002016-04-24T16:22:52.925+01:00Thanks for the very full explanation of how the re...Thanks for the very full explanation of how the regional vote is calculated. <br />My only question is regarding the actual count. Are these votes calculated by a team of harassed human tellers or are they calculated by computer?Jimmynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27523800975239157362016-04-24T16:09:58.630+01:002016-04-24T16:09:58.630+01:00Can we have a post about Eurovision? #bothvotesboz...Can we have a post about Eurovision? #bothvotesbozniaJohn Silverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14880506974201188241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50218043206706550962016-04-24T15:44:52.695+01:002016-04-24T15:44:52.695+01:00You know, these kinds of discussions usually take ...You know, these kinds of discussions usually take place between people who post on blogs about politics, and one characteristic that unites these people is that they are much more likely than your average citizen to be hyper-partisan. <br />So let me come to the discussion from another angle. I was speaking last week with my aunt who is a floating but generally centre-left voter. She lives in Glasgow Kelvin (note that this is the only part of Glasgow where the Greens are putting up a candidate: Patrick Harvie).<br />Her thoughts " I think the Greens have good policies and I like Patrick Harvie so I will vote for him for my MSP. But I will also vote SNP on the regional list because I want to see Nicola Sturgeon back as first minister"<br /><br />I remarked that considering her two objectives it would make more sense, because her votes would be more efficient and effective, to vote the other way around: SNP on the constituency ballot, Green on the regional ballot. Was that wrong?<br /><br />Isn't the problem with these discussions that they deal only with strongly partisan SNP supporters who want to vote for Rise, the Greens etc for *purely* tactical reasons - simply because they are Yes parties?<br />But in reality, aren't most voters less partisan, less committed than that? And so aren't these long efforts at mathematical reasons fairly irrelevant to the way most voters will approach this election?Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39370838264433662482016-04-24T15:42:27.885+01:002016-04-24T15:42:27.885+01:00John,
The 'heat' in this issue seems to m...John,<br /><br />The 'heat' in this issue seems to me to only have reached boiling point in the last few days.<br /><br />So, fingers crossed, you are wrong ;-)douglas clarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11422060678908705962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63495219139569120542016-04-24T15:34:23.825+01:002016-04-24T15:34:23.825+01:00Not sure you are correct in describing the Pension...Not sure you are correct in describing the Pensioners as a 'right wing populist party'.<br />Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83342761854628102272016-04-24T15:17:30.530+01:002016-04-24T15:17:30.530+01:00Postal votes are 25% and they have been sent off b...Postal votes are 25% and they have been sent off by a lot of people (I know I have sent my votes away ) At the time of sending, which was two weeks ago , we were being urged to vote for an other pro-indy party , be it Rise or Greens to give us an indy parliament .Now I didn't fall for that , but a lot of people would have.I recon that the SNP will have to go all out now to get two votes . People have been so confused and misdirected on this issue , we could end up with a rainbow parliament with no one with a majority . Job done Westminster , forget a referendum any time soon !Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74155291104898795242016-04-24T14:52:43.926+01:002016-04-24T14:52:43.926+01:00I am sure the voters will not have forgotten the S...I am sure the voters will not have forgotten the Sheridan SSP fiasco. A decent party ruined by ego.<br />Labour 1 & 2.Glasgow Working Class 2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17246018395775066062016-04-24T14:42:57.558+01:002016-04-24T14:42:57.558+01:00I would dearly like to get back to 'real' ...I would dearly like to get back to 'real' politics. But until we get independence it has to be SNP 1 & 2.<br /><br />I like Kat Boyd, I completely agree with Andy Whightman and I am probably as Green as Patrick Harvie.<br /><br />But, all of that has to be on 'hold' as it were, until their voices will have a realistic chance of influencing a future sovereign Scottish Parliament.<br /><br />Tht is the sad truth of it, as per the OP, and comments further down.douglas clarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11422060678908705962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65743938765211996962016-04-24T14:31:55.827+01:002016-04-24T14:31:55.827+01:00The answer to your question is No. I doubt that ma...The answer to your question is No. I doubt that many will be influenced by the media, maybe a tiny minority but I think that people made their minds up a while ago. The bulk of the postal votes will now have been cast. Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48261138041805574902016-04-24T14:20:33.975+01:002016-04-24T14:20:33.975+01:00In one word - No!
I think the SH has thoroughly d...In one word - No!<br /><br />I think the SH has thoroughly discredited itself not just with SNP voters but the broader Indy movement as well. I think it lost its way long before now though. It has just taken others a little time to see it.Iain Morenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27423688711961959132016-04-24T12:54:09.372+01:002016-04-24T12:54:09.372+01:00This is why we need both votes SNP.
We need an in...This is why we need both votes SNP.<br /><br />We need an increase in SNP vote to debunk the unionist press propaganda.<br /><br />Remember how the unionists said after GE that the only reason SNP got so many seats was because the unionist vote was split between 3 parties.<br /><br />It's now a clear tactic to try and split the independence vote in the same way.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09923399288776636856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81243175295320293202016-04-24T12:30:56.676+01:002016-04-24T12:30:56.676+01:00The only headline Unionists want is SNP LOSE GOV M...The only headline Unionists want is SNP LOSE GOV MAJORITYwaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03242753707412340371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42356948582931958162016-04-24T12:14:05.202+01:002016-04-24T12:14:05.202+01:00That's what you get with a media that lives in... That's what you get with a media that lives in fear of the SNP Government. Slavish devotion to the criminal mastermind and dictator for life Sturgeon. The doublethink required to be a pretendy journalist in Scotland will be part of University courses for centuries.<br /><br /> In other news was anybody at the Pen*s on Parliament debacle yesterday? Did they repeat their calls from every previous edition to scrap the new Forth Bridge, A9 and A96 improvements?<br /> <br /> Also we still have the unanswered question. Is JK Plagiarist a revolting racist and co-creator of B Spanner? Is JK PLagiarist the power behind GWC and Aldo? The people deserve answers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4146738414301832692016-04-24T12:13:01.149+01:002016-04-24T12:13:01.149+01:00Seems the SGP blog has rankled with the RISE/Bella...Seems the SGP blog has rankled with the RISE/Bella propaganda brigade. RISE is a mess, my experience with RISE supporters is one full of self-entitled, professionally offended, baseless ranting which wouldn't look out of place with a UKIP badge on it, if only we could tell what their policies are. Rather than going for the Labour vote, where they could feasibly win some votes, it seeks to damage the Yes vote by misrepresenting D'Hondt and pursuing a vague line of debate about how 'diversity', not the SNP, was the real factor that brought Yes to 45%. It ignores the facts about the voting system and continually presses that a list vote for RISE is somehow valid in 2016 Scottish politics.<br /><br />The reality is that the SNP and its followers brought Indy to the table, and was the vehicle that followed it through to the vote. RISE hung on to the rear bumper with a few fingers, and now claims somehow that it was instrumental in delivering the high Yes vote, rather like a goalkeeper who never played a match in the run up to winning the cup final, who comes off the bench to collect his cup winners medal but receives the plaudits anyway. Revisionism is not sustainable when we have the internet, however.<br /><br />RISE seem to think they are the party with the real plan, if only the whole country could see it. I'd love to see Cat Boyd in parliament, as I think she is a good voice for the left, equality, etc. However, RISE as a party is a complete mess, strewn with in-fighting, contradictions and a frankly annoying sense of importance that ensures it will never be taken seriously in these pre-Independence days.<br /><br />If it wasn't for that odious turd Mike Small and Bella Caledonia giving them a platform to 'let all voices be heard' (as long as they are pre-approved by Small), RISE would be in the same boat as the Scottish Resistance, occasionally standing in the rain on a Saturday morning and shouting at no-one in particular, achieving precisely nothing, whilst attempting to come across as 'activists' of sorts, before signing off and going home for their tea. <br /><br />It's embarrassing.Pull the other one, Bella fanboy.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70202037111492006362016-04-24T12:12:24.050+01:002016-04-24T12:12:24.050+01:00I didn't buy a Sunday Herald this week for the...I didn't buy a Sunday Herald this week for the first time since the referendum and I sincerely hope that a lot of other SNP supporters didn't as well. I'm about as interested in what it has to say now as I am regarding what goes on, on the dark side of the moon.<br /><br />I bought instead The Sunday Times as I thought I might as well concentrate my "SNP Bad". They report under the headline "Report wanes for Scottish breakaway" essentially they say that a Panelbase poll conducted by them shows support for independence declining in the event of a brexit from 53% in January to just 50% now, with all the usual honking about how that shows Scots don't feel that brexit is sufficiently important to merit a new referendum. Professor Curtice is quoted at length here too so he has had a busy week. Any chance you can debunk this poll?Dr-De-la-Zouchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31340155394739847502016-04-24T12:12:05.388+01:002016-04-24T12:12:05.388+01:00use the list proportions in the latest poll or the...use the list proportions in the latest poll or the poll of polls. Assume SNP win every constituency or all but 1 (in the latter case) assign it to Labour. See what happens. SNP don't win a single list seat and greens win 2. Funny how that real example based on actual polls isn't the one chosen. Central 2011 is silly. We are only arguing for a split because we think SNP will clean up on the constituency. If we thought it was like Central 2011 we wouldn't argue for a split. And RISE in terms of the tactical vote is wasted. Green is the tactical vote but not in South or Highlands. stellafellanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85582365411672572662016-04-24T12:09:58.247+01:002016-04-24T12:09:58.247+01:00Anonymous 11:36, I agree that the 8th, 9th and 10t...Anonymous 11:36, I agree that the 8th, 9th and 10th, seat stuff is irrelevant, but how can you say "in the real world, labour will not win 3 constituencies, as such, your figures a bollox"??? This WAS the real world! - and it actually HAPPENED! Yes, the situation has changed since 2011, but NOBODY can, with ANY degree of certainty, predict how the vote is going to pan out. I'm tempted to say "Except for the fact that Solidarity haven't a snowball's of getting a seat", but then I'd be falling into the same trap. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48997036154221185202016-04-24T12:04:10.154+01:002016-04-24T12:04:10.154+01:00Oh for pity's sake. No-one is forcing Tommy S...Oh for pity's sake. No-one is forcing Tommy Sheridan to go around making the totally false claim that only one-tenth of SNP list votes will actually count. I make no apology for using a hypothetical example to illustrate as clearly as possible why that is untrue.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45831909623901621292016-04-24T11:36:50.221+01:002016-04-24T11:36:50.221+01:00there is no 8th,9th or 10th seat, if my aunty had ...there is no 8th,9th or 10th seat, if my aunty had bollox etc.<br /><br />no one is predicting a swing back to labour, no one<br /><br />in the real world, labour will not win 3 constituencies, as such, your figures a bollox<br /><br />snp1<br />rise2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85138571992740560312016-04-24T11:33:08.771+01:002016-04-24T11:33:08.771+01:00correct stella, this is twonk world figures from k...correct stella, this is twonk world figures from kellyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72511231895028842882016-04-24T11:27:56.526+01:002016-04-24T11:27:56.526+01:00The very fact that the Unionist press and faux-Ind...The very fact that the Unionist press and faux-Indy newspapers are pushing this so hard is extremely suspicious.<br />The fact that it's being discussed when no such discussions took place when Labour was in power in Holyrood and in Westminster sets of klaxons and alarm bells.Brian Powellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39181872716998776342016-04-24T10:56:37.518+01:002016-04-24T10:56:37.518+01:00Looks like the Sunday Herald are caught between a ...Looks like the Sunday Herald are caught between a rock and a hard place, as the number of people who cancelled their SH subscriptions or said they would stop buying that rag after last week, will have hurt, but with their wealthy Elite type owners demanding that an article that harms the SNP electoral chances gets promoted, they have decided to attempt to skip along the edge of a cliff with this latest offering.<br /><br />Well Sunday Herald, you are fooling no-one, people in Scotland are too well informed to be manipulated by your lies and deceptions any more, so take whatever reward you were given in return for your tattered reputation, and leave the rest of us in piece.<br /><br />BTW, I'm glad you published this article James because like many many others, I have stopped reading the Sunday Herald after last week.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28195156477656768252016-04-24T10:42:09.385+01:002016-04-24T10:42:09.385+01:00The Sunday herald, like the greens, cannot be tru...The Sunday herald, like the greens, cannot be trusted on independence. Glad I don't buy into either tricksters.<br /><br />It has to be SNP x 2Dan Huilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77106004435638813462016-04-24T10:40:09.210+01:002016-04-24T10:40:09.210+01:00James,
Sorry to ask pretty direct question of you....James,<br />Sorry to ask pretty direct question of you.<br />Just looking at Derick fae Yell's summary of the Central list votes from 2011, I see:<br /><br />Pensioners 5,793<br />Christian 3,173<br />BNP 2,214<br />Socialist Labour 2,483<br />Unionist 1,545<br />UKIP 1,263<br />Independent 821<br />SSP (RISE) 820<br />Solidarity 559<br />Homeland 337<br /><br />That's something like 14,000 votes going to what might be considered relatively right wing populist protest parties - assign those votes to UKIP and it's competitive in almost every region. <br /><br />Am I right in thinking that the Christian and Pensioners parties haven't up candidates? <br /><br />With the BNP imploding, and the EU referendum dominating national news headlines, UKIP should have a very good opportunity to get seats, especially since the Scottish Conservatives are taking a pretty clear 'Remain' stance.<br /><br />Should this be more of a story?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com