tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2368499217801296779..comments2024-03-28T19:31:14.251+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Your STV questions answeredJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11565685213768425062017-04-25T21:04:38.939+01:002017-04-25T21:04:38.939+01:00I've a late late question - I'm slow.
In ...I've a late late question - I'm slow. <br />In my constituency 2012 the last councillor was elected at the 6th elimination. At that stage, what choice/rank is actually being transferred from the last eliminated candidate? Second preferences only? Or 6th preferences? What happens to the vote fractions that have been accruing to that candidate up until then? Donald McGregorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01864655355153560863noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24768916178838300772017-04-22T09:49:06.724+01:002017-04-22T09:49:06.724+01:00Many, many thanks :DMany, many thanks :Dmogabeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10320681792853275024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38610345160741493912017-04-21T17:46:49.775+01:002017-04-21T17:46:49.775+01:00Thanks so much for that! It's what I thought f...Thanks so much for that! It's what I thought from what you've said in the past, but it's good to hear it from you. That's what I'll do. Thank you. :o)Irmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11519306402771968807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27879807716948903892017-04-21T17:45:01.605+01:002017-04-21T17:45:01.605+01:00It's certainly important that you use all your...It's certainly important that you use all your preferences and rank the Tories last. OK, they may be a shoo-in, but you might as well try to stop them. Which order you should rank the Lib Dems and Labour in is a bit trickier and might depend on local circumstances (ie. which party is most likely to be open to coalition with the SNP?) but I would be inclined to do what you said and rank the Lib Dems second and Labour third.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41684609852957597722017-04-21T17:37:26.887+01:002017-04-21T17:37:26.887+01:00If you have time, can you tell me what the best th...If you have time, can you tell me what the best thing to do is in Deeside and Upper Donside? We have three seats to fill, with one SNP, one Conservative, one Labour and one Lib Dem. The Tory is apparently a shoe-in. I had planned to rank them SNP 1, Lib Dem 2, Labour 3 and Tory 4. I've been told that I should only vote for the SNP candidate and leave the rest. What should I do?Irmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11519306402771968807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18657635124486553982017-04-21T13:56:45.699+01:002017-04-21T13:56:45.699+01:00 The question is does the 3 year ban on standing ... The question is does the 3 year ban on standing for public office apply retrospectively?<br /><br /> I suspect the only recourse in the finding is given after the election will be the same misrepresentation of self that Carmichael charge that faced and, on that occasion, was cleared of.<br /><br /> Additionally if the timing of this was to avoid those bans then you have to wonder as to whether the deliberate withholding of evidence was a planned attempt to pervert the course of justice or not. Should a large number of MPs elected when a ban on their standing is placed on them subsequently should call in to question that timing.Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42082579148423386322017-04-21T10:17:50.864+01:002017-04-21T10:17:50.864+01:00Those are national averages for Scotland in the la...Those are national averages for Scotland in the last council elections. Your millage might vary and given Labour just voted, rather than abstained, in order to allow the Government a chance at an increased majority, you might see them as being just as bad as the Conservatives.<br /><br /> Realistically the best you can do is vote with your heart and express preferences. If there's a chance of any tactical vote backfiring then there's also a chance of that failure being put forward as some kind of endorsement of the Conservatives. So don't play that game.<br /><br /> Kind of the same advice I gave in the Holyrood election, where I voted SNP/SNP, those who voted SNP/Green might be said to have got a better result. Certainly more support on the "PR" part of the ballot elected nationalist candidates. <br /><br /> Vote till you boke doesn't necessarily require you to vote beyond that point. Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49488258164798228562017-04-20T20:47:16.909+01:002017-04-20T20:47:16.909+01:00Hmm interesting, so better Lab over Lib. My main r...Hmm interesting, so better Lab over Lib. My main reason for voting lib before lab is that in my constituency (Springburn and Robroyston) I figured they are likely to receive very few first preference votes (could feasibly lose their deposit).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14640020690415717492017-04-20T19:13:44.292+01:002017-04-20T19:13:44.292+01:00No, they do not. I directly addressed that point ...No, they do not. I directly addressed that point in the blogpost.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69785851618049824572017-04-20T19:12:14.891+01:002017-04-20T19:12:14.891+01:00Something that worries people is that by ranking t...Something that worries people is that by ranking tories even if it "8th" the tories will at the end of the evening claim that ranking is a "vote" for them and then tally up all those "votes" across Scotland. So do "rankings" count as votes? Yes or No.Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02435766996462814732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-92158548523508571922017-04-20T19:06:18.161+01:002017-04-20T19:06:18.161+01:00Little argument there. However if we're talkin...Little argument there. However if we're talking about minimising the chances of a given flavour of unionist amongst a choice of three then you should pick the one most likely to benefit them if they manage to make the quota.<br /><br /> Last time on average for every 70 surplus vote a Lib Dem got the Conservatives gained 1 over Labour. For Labour it was just over 13 surplus votes giving a 1 vote advantage to the Lib Dems over Conservatives.<br /><br /> Obviously Labour have done themselves no favours in not waiting for the results of the Electoral fraud investigations when there was a possibility that it might have brought about a loss of that slim majority and forcing them out via a vote of no confidence. Instead they've allowed the Conservatives a far stronger starting point than necessary. <br /><br /> So it's a choice between a party that took an active part in a Tory led coalition or one that foolishly believes it will win without some cataclysm befalling Tory support.Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40837422840909539622017-04-20T18:42:57.020+01:002017-04-20T18:42:57.020+01:00Doesn't work on my phone, will try it on the l...Doesn't work on my phone, will try it on the laptop. But really it doesn't matter any more. For some reason having that clear regular reaffirmation of others seeing the sad inhumanity he brings means I have no need to ever read his comments again. Not sure why it's so effective a neutraliser, but it is. Justin Kenrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05371269693334856586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55995295382503757202017-04-20T17:42:43.782+01:002017-04-20T17:42:43.782+01:00Genius!!!Genius!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90599991249937878202017-04-20T16:11:06.046+01:002017-04-20T16:11:06.046+01:00Cameron Archibald @MammothWhale 4 hours ago
@R...Cameron Archibald @MammothWhale 4 hours ago<br /><br /> @RuthDavidsonMSP once again refuses to give her position on the #RapeClause and tells the government they can sort it out. Disgusting. #FMQsRape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29405472676232616042017-04-20T15:56:35.501+01:002017-04-20T15:56:35.501+01:00Kimberley ���� @Indy_Kimberley 4 minutes ago
I...Kimberley ���� @Indy_Kimberley 4 minutes ago<br /><br />If @DavidMundellDCT is charged it will happen between May 20th and June 3rd according to the Mirror. This could all get a whole lot crazier.The Great Tory Election Expenses Scandal 2017 £££££££noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80596511961486790322017-04-20T15:54:40.784+01:002017-04-20T15:54:40.784+01:00Just making certain you put everyone else above th...Just making certain you put everyone else above the unionist parties like the libdem labour and the tories will do a great deal to mitigate any possible advantage they have.<br /> Red Tory Yellow Tory Kipper Tory Yoon Torynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58267519886040209832017-04-20T15:47:03.049+01:002017-04-20T15:47:03.049+01:00Save this script in your bookmarks, load up the co...Save this script in your bookmarks, load up the comments page, click the newly created bookmark..no more GWC :)<br /><br /><br />javascript:(function(){function%20e(a){for(;(a=a.parentElement)&&!a.classList.contains("comment"););return%20a}var%20c,b,d,f=document.querySelectorAll(".comment-block"),g=window.atob("d29ya2luZyBjbGFzc3xnd2N8bmF0IHNpfGtuaWNrZXJsZXNzfGdsZXNnYSBmYWtlIG5ld3M=").split("|");Array.prototype.forEach.call(f,function(a){d=!1;c=a.textContent.toLowerCase().replace(/\s\s+/g,"%20");if(d=g.some(function(a){return-1<c.indexOf(a)}))b=e(a),b.parentNode.removeChild(b)})})();Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75551230780314096512017-04-20T15:25:11.688+01:002017-04-20T15:25:11.688+01:00The troll calls scottish people "jocks",...The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8704001483743040342017-04-20T15:02:02.852+01:002017-04-20T15:02:02.852+01:00Statistically next preferences from Lib Dem Voters... Statistically next preferences from Lib Dem Voters are marginally likelier to go to a Conservative than to Labour. Page 15 of this https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/sites/default/files/2012-Scottish-Local-Government-Elections.pdf has the gruesome details.<br /><br />Table 3.3 Average First Terminal Transfer Rates<br /> % of votes transferred to<br />Transferred from Con Lab LD SNP Ind Non-<br /> /Other Transferable<br />Conservative - 8.0 32.4 8.3 17.6 33.6<br />Labour 5.8 - 13.2 16.5 16.7 47.8<br />Liberal Democrat 21.8 20.4 - 15.5 19.3 23.1<br />SNP 6.0 18.1 14.1 - 17.8 44.2<br /><br /> Why this is relevant is that should any part of your vote go towards providing a candidate with a surplus rather than simply making them the most popular kid in a town of last to be picks then all of that surplus gets distributed in proportion to how all their votes.<br /><br /> That might include transfers from supporters of other parties but you're starting from a basis where if you are unlucky enough to elect a Lib Dem then there's a slight bias towards any surplus heading more towards a Conservative than anywhere else. It's simply the way it works. <br /><br /> The tactical way to vote has to be for Labour then Lib Dem if your aim is really to keep Tories out of power. <br /><br /> Otherwise what you are really doing is ranking people in order of how you feel about them. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that.<br /><br /> Put it this way, if I was in a ward where there were 3 seats and the SNP had 50% of the vote then the quota would be just over 25%. Hopefully the SNP would have stood more than one candidate. If not then what happens next might very well depend on how well versed and co-ordinated the SNP voters were. If only half of them are persuaded to vote outwith the SNP then perhaps the majority might fling their next preference at Green or Independent Candidates. You'd still have enough of a surplus transferring to win half a seat. Hopefully at some point in the transfer you might "elect" someone else. However if not then eventually those votes might be well co-ordinated enough to land on a LibDem, assuming that'd been the advice followed. Elect them and there will be a subsequent transfer of even more surplus votes. This time the balance might have shifted in favour of Labour given we're talking a massive amount of votes with an anti-Tory intent.<br /><br /> The problem isn't that part of your own vote might head towards a Tory before it's exhausted all other possibilities. It's that it might unlock other votes that were safely locked on to a candidate already destined to be elected when the number remaining matched unfilled seats.<br /><br /> Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61327614093063748962017-04-20T14:25:26.728+01:002017-04-20T14:25:26.728+01:00Anonymous uses this tactic to avoid political deba...Anonymous uses this tactic to avoid political debate and moreso to avoid any criticism of the Nat si policies and their hypocrisy.GWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40685323563927905382017-04-20T14:09:15.361+01:002017-04-20T14:09:15.361+01:00Really helpful post thanks.
And just to note tha...Really helpful post thanks. <br /><br />And just to note that since Anonymous started posting the paragraph "The troll callls Scottish people . ." afte Le each of his posts they no longer bother me and I'm free to read the comments. Thanks Anonymous!Justin Kenrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05371269693334856586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40279383164601765702017-04-20T13:06:10.820+01:002017-04-20T13:06:10.820+01:00Just completed a panelbase survey on GE2017, indyr...Just completed a panelbase survey on GE2017, indyref2, previous voting records, timing of indyref (during negotiations, after negotiating or after exiting EU). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87708096084244313012017-04-20T12:47:53.922+01:002017-04-20T12:47:53.922+01:00The troll calls scottish people "jocks",...The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25934792927909070732017-04-20T12:44:31.989+01:002017-04-20T12:44:31.989+01:00The troll calls scottish people "jocks",...The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10991915919568056222017-04-20T12:18:57.247+01:002017-04-20T12:18:57.247+01:00Nat si hypocrisy in the Commons. They want to leav...Nat si hypocrisy in the Commons. They want to leave the Union but complain about Royal Navy contracts on the Clyde.GWC2noreply@blogger.com