tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2062082087254074145..comments2024-03-29T10:31:21.056+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: The SNP must make this an independence electionJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67335818196642421972019-09-04T15:48:12.795+01:002019-09-04T15:48:12.795+01:00I didn't "go whining to Twitter". I...I didn't "go whining to Twitter". I reported an outrageously abusive tweet, which (among other things) is what the report function is actually there for. In my ten years on Twitter, I have reported perhaps four tweets, so it's not something I do lightly. I know in your world you'd give someone a medal for the 'heroic honesty' of calling someone you disagree with a "c**t", but the rest of us are not obliged to see things in quite the same way.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45212874334358459532019-09-04T15:37:05.781+01:002019-09-04T15:37:05.781+01:00Jeez, I can't believe you went whining to Twit...Jeez, I can't believe you went whining to Twitter and got Gavin suspended. That's pathetic.RevStuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03915111503712807257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61108423797286701162019-09-03T21:19:38.740+01:002019-09-03T21:19:38.740+01:00You are ane profoundly sinister person.You are ane profoundly sinister person.Jocky Scotchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69729827426112014302019-09-03T13:01:33.826+01:002019-09-03T13:01:33.826+01:00On a related matter - will the Wings party have an...On a related matter - will the Wings party have any policies? I am an independence supporter but I also like to have some idea of the ideology underpinning the party. For example the Brexit party had associations with politicians from Tom Berwick Labour to Anne Widdicombe Conservative to Kevin Moore formerly BNP. If wings are to stand then they will have to put together some form of manifesto other than - vote list seats for us. I can do that with the greens if I need an alternative to SNP. Bottom line - this is the wrong time to do this. It is not necessary and it has the risk of messing up our biggest chance of gaining independence. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23167065113174225192019-09-03T09:53:40.441+01:002019-09-03T09:53:40.441+01:00I don't doubt that you are.I don't doubt that you are. RevStuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03915111503712807257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87013949914207651212019-09-03T07:55:37.184+01:002019-09-03T07:55:37.184+01:00The Holyrood list vote cannot be 'gamed'; ...The Holyrood list vote cannot be 'gamed'; only the FPTP constituency vote can be by normal UK general election style 'tactical voting'.<br /><br />Party list PR can't be cheated. It's a big porky pie to suggest otherwise. The list vote seat allocation will perfectly match the result proportionally (minus those parties that failed to get 5% in at least one region).<br /><br />So, vote for the party you want in cabinet on the regional list, and then, if you want, maybe lend your vote to the party you'd prefer to take the constituency seat if you believe your favourite doesn't have a chance. <br /><br />That could be SNP on the constituency and Wings on the list. However, let's not lie to people that the Wings vote is the 'clever tactical vote'. Nope; your tactical vote is the constituency one. Only these can be maximised by tactical viting as FPTP is not proportional.Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10881089594793037812019-09-03T07:44:41.325+01:002019-09-03T07:44:41.325+01:00Somehow I think brexit is going to largely dominat...Somehow I think brexit is going to largely dominate proceedings. Scottish Skierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10584099659760612109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68937015161329417622019-09-03T07:02:24.419+01:002019-09-03T07:02:24.419+01:00I see opportunities for levity are in short supply...I see opportunities for levity are in short supply in these febrile times! Yes, I know they are different... or are they!?! Very little would surprise me anymore :)Lochranzahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09666400636743039462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82615443716857239202019-09-03T06:32:30.699+01:002019-09-03T06:32:30.699+01:00You do know that's a completely different Jame...You do know that's a completely different James Kelly, right?Loquacious Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19489657231534222992019-09-03T01:32:22.673+01:002019-09-03T01:32:22.673+01:00For the avoidance of doubt, I am entirely comforta...For the avoidance of doubt, I am entirely comfortable with my conduct throughout these exchanges. If you're determined to interpret any dissent from your own views as discourtesy, then all I can do is shrug. I'm not the one chucking abuse around.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38753609805114025822019-09-03T01:27:56.209+01:002019-09-03T01:27:56.209+01:00Obviously. It's one of the more direct and hon...Obviously. It's one of the more direct and honest ones.RevStuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03915111503712807257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40660922931844329112019-09-03T01:08:00.618+01:002019-09-03T01:08:00.618+01:00"If there is only a small risk of the putativ...<i>"If there is only a small risk of the putative WOS party failing AND costing seats against the WOS party gaining seats for YES then it makes sense for it to happen."</i><br /><br />Well, it's only a small risk if you think Wings will be getting 0.1% of the vote or something like that. If you think they'll do quite a bit better, say 2%, then it's a substantial risk.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64745419770735159302019-09-03T00:57:48.599+01:002019-09-03T00:57:48.599+01:00They have been letting perverts into schools since...They have been letting perverts into schools since 1918. The Catholic and Anglican Church. GWCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40508076178094950302019-09-03T00:49:19.164+01:002019-09-03T00:49:19.164+01:00"I think you deliberately misconstrued my que...<i>"I think you deliberately misconstrued my question above."</i><br /><br />Sigh. No, I didn't "deliberately" misconstrue it, and if you want a valid, polite debate, you might start by not making unwarranted allegations of that sort. I answered the question you actually asked - you wanted to know how many list votes would need to move from the SNP to Wings to gain a pro-indy majority, and the answer is, quite simply and literally, zero. We already have a pro-indy majority, and no votes at all would need to move. That is a true statement, not an untrue statement. In a nutshell, the Wings party is a proposed solution to a problem that doesn't actually exist. <br /><br /><i>"How many votes, for example, would it take to achieve 5%?"</i><br /><br />I don't understand that question. If you mean "how many votes would it take to achieve 5% of the vote?", then the answer is self-explanatory. If you want the answer in terms of absolute number of votes, that would obviously depend on the turnout. In 2016, 5% of the list vote would have been somewhere in the region of 115,000 votes.<br /><br /><i>"What would be the affect if Wings did not run at all in the Borders, for example"</i><br /><br />The fewer regions Wings stands in, the less harm it can cause. There's a danger of harm in every region, and the risk is especially high in the Borders. That's the fullest and most accurate answer that I or anyone else can give you.<br /><br />And to point out that a new party with no roots is highly unlikely to top 5% of the vote in its first outing is not an "extreme view" as you put it - it's a statement of the obvious based on countless precedents.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30204120435642854402019-09-03T00:28:26.437+01:002019-09-03T00:28:26.437+01:00Noooooo...it's like watching mummy and daddy f...Noooooo...it's like watching mummy and daddy fight (not saying who's who).Ravelinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05503643002323026453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26501109951220931762019-09-03T00:26:44.995+01:002019-09-03T00:26:44.995+01:00And in your answer above, beginning 'None.'...And in your answer above, beginning 'None.' This is untrue. Your scenario gave two results where there was no Indy majority in either. So I repeat my question, how many SNP list votes would Wings need in order to win an Indy majority - based on the figures you use in your scenario? Alan Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15805204639068367185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70678062522949035202019-09-03T00:23:09.886+01:002019-09-03T00:23:09.886+01:00James, I am on the fence between your position and...James, I am on the fence between your position and Wings. And I would like to see a valid, polite, debate to help form my opinion. I think you deliberately misconstrued my question above. Instead of giving examples where Wings lose Indy seats i'd like to see what they would need to poll in order to win seats. And then hear you say why this is implausible. How many votes, for example, would it take to achieve 5%? What would be the affect if Wings did not run at all in the Borders, for example. I do think this needs a genuine discussion and not Wings saying it is possible and you saying they'd never get above 4%. These are fairly extreme views on either side. Alan Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15805204639068367185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68461511165293977112019-09-03T00:21:46.713+01:002019-09-03T00:21:46.713+01:00You can have an independence election if you want ...You can have an independence election if you want but we've just seen that some people have learned the lessons of the past.<br /><br /> Mrs Thatcher won 3 elections in a row largely as a reaction to the loony left. <br /> The lunatics who held ordinary families to ransom while demanding massive pay rises.<br /> The lunatics who promoted paedophilia as normal<br /> The lunatics who wanted to disarm in the face of the evil Soviet empire.<br /><br /> Now we see the trap closing.<br /><br /> They'll be campaigning against letting perverts into schools. Against sterilising children. Against castrating boys. And it'll work because the overwhelming majority of normal people are not on the side of the "woke".<br /><br /> Excellent work from whoever read Tacitus and Sun Tzu and has used their enemies obsession against them.<br /><br /> If The FM isn't forced to back down then every current polling prediction is worthless when leaflets full of those happy smiling children at Pride(TM) parades next to gormless leftard politicians and evil paedos hit the doormats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31656754176360937062019-09-03T00:10:43.880+01:002019-09-03T00:10:43.880+01:00FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHH...FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71790997798522832792019-09-02T23:19:07.333+01:002019-09-02T23:19:07.333+01:00Really? Is the C-word one of them?Really? Is the C-word one of them?James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23316768079000358492019-09-02T23:15:16.059+01:002019-09-02T23:15:16.059+01:00There's more than one way to be discourteous.There's more than one way to be discourteous. RevStuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03915111503712807257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4305445298569369982019-09-02T23:10:17.102+01:002019-09-02T23:10:17.102+01:00"Instead, how much of the SNP list vote would...<i>"Instead, how much of the SNP list vote would need to move to Wings in order to swing an Indy majority?"</i><br /><br />Answer: None. We have a pro-indy majority, and the most recent polling suggests we're on course to keep it.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79480287221400837482019-09-02T23:08:51.784+01:002019-09-02T23:08:51.784+01:00"What Rev Stu and co. will say is that it doe...<i>"What Rev Stu and co. will say is that it doesn't matter if we lose the indy majority by 3 seats or 7."</i><br /><br />Which is self-evidently a reckless and irresponsible attitude, but nevertheless the example is just that: an illustrative example.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22432882655381911052019-09-02T22:58:08.732+01:002019-09-02T22:58:08.732+01:00Frankly, the chances that you'll significantly...Frankly, the chances that you'll significantly increase pro-indy representation are vanishingly small, so I'm unlikely to lose any sleep over the second eventuality. As for the first...well, I suspect you know what my concern is. I'm worried that we're going to see misleading Archie Stirling-type polling that whips up a frenzy among your keenest supporters and makes the momentum towards a Wings party unstoppable...and then when you inevitably end up with a sub-5% vote, then yes, you may indeed end up costing the pro-indy side seats. I accept that's not your intention, but it's not a "technical" or "tiny" risk, it's a very significant danger.<br /><br />As for "losing my mind", I'd just note that Gavin responded to this article by calling me a "dishonest c**t" on three separate occasions. You've responded by calling the article "really s***e". However much you may disagree with me, I've remained entirely non-abusive in the exchanges over this, and it would be nice if your side of the argument showed the same courtesy. I'm not holding my breath, but it would be nice.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264559835025144323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9104840347705440652019-09-02T22:44:10.621+01:002019-09-02T22:44:10.621+01:00Sheesh, typing on an iPad is a trainwreck. Sheesh, typing on an iPad is a trainwreck. RevStuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03915111503712807257noreply@blogger.com