tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post1853124173538313681..comments2024-03-28T20:38:14.157+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: What impact (if any) will the Smith report have on the SNP's enormous opinion poll lead?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68921016594924310372014-11-30T16:25:33.985+00:002014-11-30T16:25:33.985+00:00P Charles appears to be a 'looser' :)P Charles appears to be a 'looser' :)Sunshine on Crieffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37622983187321858932014-11-30T06:12:59.584+00:002014-11-30T06:12:59.584+00:00YouGov tables for today's poll are up. Scottis...YouGov tables for today's poll are up. Scottish sub-sample is SNP 44, Labour 31, Tory 16.<br /><br />http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf<br /><br />Pretty consistent with their previous findings, maybe Labour a little higher but a fairly typical gap between SNP and Labour. Nothing outside the (theoretical) margin of error.<br /><br />Is Ed Miliband doing well or badly? 13-83 in Scotland, 17-73 overall.<br /><br />Interesting question which could be taken as a VI proxy is "who do you think best represents people from your social class": Labour 28, Tory 12, UKIP 7, LD 6 - None 42 (SNP not offered as an option). Labour would consistently have been much higher for that in Scotland in the past. This despite a significantly higher % of Scots (57) describing themselves as working class than the whole sample (48).<br /><br />Scots are much more pessimistic about the economy, which can't help Tories or Lib Dems (16-54 v 24-41). Also much more sceptical about coalition economic management (28-65 v 41-48).Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50911456038418076142014-11-30T03:04:08.751+00:002014-11-30T03:04:08.751+00:00@P Charles.
The same old narrative about defeating...@P Charles.<br />The same old narrative about defeating the Tories may not work this time.<br /><br />1. There will be a strong anti 'Red Tory' campaign by many new activists.<br /><br />2. Ed Miliband is weak and has no Scottish connection, unlike Blair or Brown.<br /><br />3. It will soon sink in 30% of taxes and 20% of benefits isn't home rule.<br /><br />4. The Tories may end up proposing further devolution, so Scotland would end up with less powers under Labour. A nice tactic to hold back Labour votes in Scotland.<br /><br />5. This would go alongside EVEL - a vote winner in England, that could see UKIP voters return to the Tories. Many are English nationalists at heart.<br />If they really want to get elected again, they would propose an English Parliament and real federalism.<br /><br />Plenty of possibilities could play out .. If I was Labour I would be very nervous about assuming the Scots will just fall into line.. Nothing lasts forever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50847078874203222092014-11-30T02:24:50.293+00:002014-11-30T02:24:50.293+00:00"As for the Western Isles, I had bet on them ...<i>"As for the Western Isles, I had bet on them as the region with the highest Yes vote, and look what happened. I wouldn't completely rule out a Labour gain for fear of looking silly in six months time."</i><br /><br />I'm quite happy to take that risk. There isn't a cat in hell's chance of Labour gaining the Western Isles unless they can somehow dent Angus MacNeil's personal popularity.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3326185236034014802014-11-30T02:12:43.384+00:002014-11-30T02:12:43.384+00:00P Charles,
Although I'd be tempted to contest...P Charles,<br /><br />Although I'd be tempted to contest a number of those predictions, than one that I see as most unlikely is the prediction for Inverness. It seems to me that most people in the region see the SNP as the best bet to get rid of Alexander than Labour.<br /><br />As for the Western Isles, I had bet on them as the region with the highest Yes vote, and look what happened. I wouldn't completely rule out a Labour gain for fear of looking silly in six months time.<br /><br />Personally, I'd give the Tories a better chance of winning Dumfries and Galloway than Argyll and Bute, but that would depend on a sizable Labour collapse, which is clearly the opposite of what you're predicting.Piemonteishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13634411104957895615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85887961554632180912014-11-30T00:58:47.665+00:002014-11-30T00:58:47.665+00:00Oh, and I've just noticed you have the Western...Oh, and I've just noticed you have the Western Isles down as a Labour gain. <br /><br />*Chortle.*James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1123792735326807542014-11-30T00:56:32.588+00:002014-11-30T00:56:32.588+00:00"The closer we get to the election, the more ...<i>"The closer we get to the election, the more the electorate will realise that the most important thing is to kick the Tories out."</i><br /><br />Hmmm. If you want to make that one fly, Anon, first of all you'll have to convince people that Labour are actually preferable to the Tories. As things stand, polls consistently show that Scots think Ed Miliband would make an EVEN WORSE Prime Minister than David Cameron. Why on Earth would they desert the SNP for as long as they hold that view?<br /><br /><i>"In fact, polls are already narrowing. It wasn’t that long ago that James was posting about this unbelievable IPSOS-Mori polls where the SNP were on 52% and nearly 30 points ahead."</i><br /><br />Rubbish. Absolute complete and utter rubbish. By all means point me to a new Ipsos-Mori poll which shows that the 29-point gap is narrowed. In the meantime, stop trying to compare apples with oranges.<br /><br /><i>"Actually, his poll of polls today puts the SNP under 40% for the first time"</i><br /><br />Rubbish. They've been below 40% before, on multiple occasions.<br /><br /><i>"Despite not a lot of polls showing a Yes lead, James insisted in calling most polls a ‘deadheat’."</i><br /><br />Codswallop. If a poll was a statistical tie, I pointed out it was a statistical tie. Not all polls were statistical ties - but then again not all polls had No in the lead.<br /><br />But I do hope you feel better after that lengthy piece of propaganda strewn with basic factual errors.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15655670738077758772014-11-29T23:21:36.819+00:002014-11-29T23:21:36.819+00:00http://scottishnews.scot/
It's our's to s...http://scottishnews.scot/<br /><br />It's our's to support.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20708280341298335322014-11-29T22:52:59.345+00:002014-11-29T22:52:59.345+00:00Since a large number of people are increasingly sh...Since a large number of people are increasingly showing a growing disillusionment with our MSM they are accessing actual news from the ground via sources outwith ''The Establishment' control. <br /><br /><a href="http://rt.com/uk/210019-edinburgh-independence-scotland-rally/" rel="nofollow">'Storm is coming!' Hundreds demand independence at Scottish Parliament</a><br /><br /><a href="http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/events/3619085" rel="nofollow">New United 45plus Rally, Edinburgh</a>cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18544559477265146532014-11-29T22:34:51.865+00:002014-11-29T22:34:51.865+00:00"It happened in 2010 when the SNP was expecti...<i>"It happened in 2010 when the SNP was expecting to do well and in the end Labour won a landslide."</i><br /><br />I'm not sure why. Labour went into 2010 with a very comfortable lead which was present well in advance of the election. The SNP have never been ahead of Labour in Westminster polls on average; there was a brief closure in 2009 but that's it. SNP ahead only happened from 2011 onwards. They've had the edge since and the widening gap make sense given the Labour-Tory iref coalition.<br /><br />With EVEL coming in, voting for anything other than SNP makes no obvious sense as it ends the concept of 'British' parties.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38536696575158011962014-11-29T22:27:50.965+00:002014-11-29T22:27:50.965+00:00I note even my edit was duped by your careful word...I note even my edit was duped by your careful wording and left in the phrase "their Labour" well done. You are a consummate wordsmith. <br /><br />SqueuedPerspextiveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61024614466557616002014-11-29T22:08:26.641+00:002014-11-29T22:08:26.641+00:00Dear P. Charles
thanks for your comment. It is a...Dear P. Charles <br /><br />thanks for your comment. It is always good to hear alternative arguments.<br /><br />However, in that spirit, can I suggest the following edits ?<br /><br />"Following the Smith commission, I would expect the lead between the SNP and Labour to narrow. The MSM is going to do the establishment bidding and endeavour to force the debate away from constitutional reform. The closer we get to the election, the more the electorate will be inundated with propaganda that the most important thing is to kick the Tories out. This has worked before to dupe voters back to their Labour in mass. It happened in 2010 when the SNP was expecting to do well and in the end Labour won a landslide.<br /><br />MSM will push Devo max (or whatever further powers) the SNP propose to take a back seat. In fact, Labour has a 9% lead over the Tories in marginal seats in England according to recent Ashcroft polls. But voters must remember that although historically Scotland habitually returned 40+ Labour MPs, it also sends members to Westminster from the other parties to offset them. The last time Scotland made any difference to give Labour a majority was 1974."<br /><br />(ref http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland/)<br /><br />If SNP (or Yes Scotland Alliance) cannot get the facts out there - people will be duped again.<br /><br />Hope this Helps<br /><br />SqueuedPerspextiveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76784185328594617782014-11-29T21:46:39.850+00:002014-11-29T21:46:39.850+00:00Quelle surprise that 'Calman returns' does...Quelle surprise that 'Calman returns' doesn't set the heather on fire.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40875414755211286972014-11-29T21:06:50.824+00:002014-11-29T21:06:50.824+00:00The Sunday Herald just tweeted: "New poll sho...The Sunday Herald just tweeted: "New poll shows most Scots want more powers than the Smith Commission provides" (20:58)<br /><br />We'll have to wait and see what the figures are.FitzyMannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11815307116151594342014-11-29T20:56:27.567+00:002014-11-29T20:56:27.567+00:00If "P Charles" bet on those predictions ...If "P Charles" bet on those predictions and won, he/she would be better off at the cumulative odds than winning the lottery!Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78775240011127702062014-11-29T20:38:59.340+00:002014-11-29T20:38:59.340+00:00The Calman Commission had a huge impact on May 201...The Calman Commission had a huge impact on May 2011. Probably our best guide.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52641302921695787032014-11-29T20:38:23.006+00:002014-11-29T20:38:23.006+00:00See.... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3UK2VAIAAAge5...See.... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3UK2VAIAAAge5-.png:large<br />...for a graph showing rolling average of the YouGov polls. Boabhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3UK2VAIAAAge5-.png:largenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58681983370538933382014-11-29T20:37:48.763+00:002014-11-29T20:37:48.763+00:00What's next week's lottery results Charles...What's next week's lottery results Charles?<br /><br />Good to see optimism anyway. Chin up and all that!Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73223137219584847762014-11-29T20:33:45.730+00:002014-11-29T20:33:45.730+00:00NewLabour win the Western Isles? Dream on, your cl...NewLabour win the Western Isles? Dream on, your cloud catcher above your bed is obviously knackered.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82380881719090032872014-11-29T20:26:51.430+00:002014-11-29T20:26:51.430+00:00Wow. You spent a lot of time writing all that guff...Wow. You spent a lot of time writing all that guff. The SNP are going to get 6 MPs?<br />Cuckoo!<br /><br />The polls aren't narrowing at all. Whether they will now that the Smith commission is out, we'll have to wait and see. A couple of subsamples won't show that. A couple of weeks of them should do.<br /><br />Anyway, amusing to see a Labour fan optimistic for a change lolBoabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23498337390270687992014-11-29T20:20:11.204+00:002014-11-29T20:20:11.204+00:00Deliver PFI backdoor privatisation, deliver for th...Deliver PFI backdoor privatisation, deliver for their millionaire ALEO/ PFI millionaire oligarchies, dump nuclear weapons in Scotland, pander to the tracking and private healthcare companies their parliamentarians hold shares in and give paid after dinner speeches to? <br /><br />Your idea of delivery for Scotland is different from mine. I'm a Libertarian Socialist/Marxist. <br /><br />Labour will not be the largest party in 2015, and, further to this, all evidence points to the SNP winning 30-40 seats in Westminster. I'd hedge bets on 28-32 seats, and the largest party in Scotland at Westminster.<br /><br />What confuses me is why Labour and Tories stand on separate platforms in Scotland, they are virtual clones. Perhaps why the SNP have over 92000 members. The Hydro held 12000 last week, double the number of Neo-Con New Labour members.<br /><br />Truth hurts, doesn't it.<br />I'm an ex member of what is rapidly becoming an ex party, despite its unconditional support from the Scottish media almost in its entirety.<br /><br />People power, internet and social media are the Labour liars worst enemies.<br /><br />You are?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76065275788232273712014-11-29T19:42:13.673+00:002014-11-29T19:42:13.673+00:00(continuation)
There has been a lot of hype about...(continuation)<br /><br />There has been a lot of hype about Labour heartlands (North Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire and Glasgow) voting Yes but this will not matter in the general election. Labour do have a very large majority on all seats in these areas so are unlikely to loose any seats. In fact, even in Glasgow South West (which contains Govan) Labour has a 14,671 vote majority. The SNP will not win in Glasgow East either as Margaret Curran is a very popular Labour politician and is well liked by her constituents. Labour will win 55%-60% of votes in Glasgow as glaswegians vote against the Tories.<br /><br />I will admit that with the Labour and unions scandal in Falkirk, Scottish Labour might be in trouble there and also in Dundee West. In fact, the most vulnerable seat for Labour in terms of their majority was Ochil & South Perthshire (where Lab have a majority of 5,187) however given voters in Perth & Kinross overwhelmingly rejected independence, I wouldn’t expect the SNP to do well there in 2015. Ochil & South Perthshire will be Labour hold. <br /><br />The vow and home rule have been delivered and as Martin Kettle says in The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/27/snp-smith-commission-scottish-people-devolution) the SNP is being negative and just risking to set themselves adrift from ordinary people. <br /><br />In the end, once the polls narrow and Labour gains a lead – Labour will only loose a couple of seats to the SNP and make some gains from LD (and SNP in the Western Isles) whilst the SNP might make a couple of gains but will loose seats in areas which voted overwhelmingly against independence.<br /><br />This is my guess for the 2015 election:<br />Aberdeen North - Lab Hold<br />Aberdeen South - Lab Hold<br />Airdrie & Shotts - Lab Hold<br />Angus - SNP Hold<br />Argyll & Bute - Con Gain<br />Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - Lab Hold<br />Banff & Buchan - Con Gain<br />Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - Con Gain<br />Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - LD Hold<br />Central Ayrshire - Lab Hold<br />Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill - Lab Hold<br />Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East - Lab Hold<br />Dumfries & Galloway - Lab Hold<br />Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - Con Hold<br />Dundee East - SNP Hold<br />Dundee West - SNP Gain<br />Dunfermline & West Fife - Lab Hold<br />East Dunbartonshire - Lab Gain<br />East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - Lab Hold<br />East Lothian - Lab Hold<br />East Renfrewshire - Lab Hold<br />Edinburgh East - Lab Hold<br />Edinburgh North & Leith - Lab Hold<br />Edinburgh South - Lab Hold<br />Edinburgh South West - Lab Hold<br />Edinburgh West - Lab Gain<br />Falkirk - SNP Gain<br />Glasgow Central - Lab Hold<br />Glasgow East - Lab Hold<br />Glasgow North - Lab Hold<br />Glasgow North East - Lab Hold<br />Glasgow North West - Lab Hold<br />Glasgow South - Lab Hold<br />Glasgow South West - Lab Hold<br />Glenrothes - Lab Hold<br />Gordon - SNP Gain<br />Inverclyde - Lab Hold<br />Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - Lab Gain<br />Kilmarnock & Loudoun - Lab Hold<br />Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Lab Hold<br />Lanark & Hamilton East - Lab Hold<br />Linlithgow & East Falkirk - Lab Hold<br />Livingston - Lab Hold<br />Midlothian - Lab Hold<br />Moray- SNP Hold<br />Motherwell & Wishaw - Lab Hold<br />Na h-Eileanan an Iar - Lab Gain<br />North Ayrshire & Arran - Lab Hold<br />North East Fife - LD Hold<br />Ochil & South Perthshire - Lab Hold<br />Orkney & Shetland - LD Hold<br />Paisley & Renfrewshire North - Lab Hold<br />Paisley & Renfrewshire South - Lab Hold<br />Perth & North Perthshire - Con Gain<br />Ross, Skye & Lochaber - LD Hold<br />Rutherglen & Hamilton West - Lab Hold<br />Stirling - Lab Hold<br />West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - Con Gain<br />West Dunbartonshire - Lab Hold<br /><br />Under the above scenario, Labour would get 43 seats, the SNP would get 6 seats, the Conservatives would get 6 seats and the Liberal Democrats would get 4 seats.<br /><br />Labour are going to do what they do best: stand up for Scotland and deliver for Scotland.<br /><br />Happy to help,<br /><br />P CharlesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68999506230886665582014-11-29T19:41:31.777+00:002014-11-29T19:41:31.777+00:00Following the Smith commission, I would expect the...Following the Smith commission, I would expect the lead between the SNP and Labour to narrow. The debate is going to move away from constitutional reform. The closer we get to the election, the more the electorate will realise that the most important thing is to kick the Tories out. This will make voters go back to their natural home and vote Labour in mass. Same as it happened in 2010 when the SNP was expecting to do well and in the end Labour won a landslide.<br /><br />Devo max or whatever further powers the SNP propose will take a back seat. In fact, Labour has a 9% lead over the Tories in marginal seats in England according to recent Ashcroft polls. As long as Labour holds up well in Scotland, Labour will win a majority. Which means the SNP will be irrelevant in Westminster.<br /><br />You folks might attach a lot of relevance to polls. However I remember the poll frenzy in the final two weeks of the referendum. Despite not a lot of polls showing a Yes lead, James insisted in calling most polls a ‘deadheat’. In the end, voters endorsed the union by a landslide. A lot of nationalists are saying that the result was close but it wasn’t, the No vote won by more than 10 points. When Labour beat the Tories in 1997 and 2001 by 10 points it was called a landslide. Sames as then, be prepared for the polls to disappoint you. <br /><br />In fact, polls are already narrowing. It wasn’t that long ago that James was posting about this unbelievable IPSOS-Mori polls where the SNP were on 52% and nearly 30 points ahead. His lpoll of polls on the 25/11 puts the SNP on 42% and Labour on 26%, that’s a 16 point gap. So effectively, the gap has halved a matter of a month. If the trend continues, Labour will be on the lead by January/February. Actually, his poll of polls today puts the SNP under 40% for the first time and Labour only 11 points away. The gap is narrowing and fast. <br /><br />Once Scottish Labour has an elected leader the trend will continue. Although I personally don’t like Jim Murphy and a lot of voters don’t – he does have a lot of charisma and is a fighter. He is a strong Labour figure and knows how to displace the SNP argument. In fact, his energy during the 100 streets campaign was a key to the No vote winning the referendum.<br /><br />The SNP has a problem which is mainly that there is not a lot of SNP/Labour or SNP/LD marginals. Under a FPTP system that means the SNP have a big mountain to climb should they want any seats. In fact, the SNP is in trouble on some of the seats it currently holds. Minus Dundee East, all of the constituencies held by the SNP voted No, some of them voted No with a massive 60% of votes. Under that scenario, Pete Wishart may be in trouble in Perth and North Perthshire. Aberdeenshire also voted No even though it's meant to be the SNPs heartland, so under that basis Banff and Buchan is also vulnerable and on both of these seats we could be looking at Tory gains. Also we’ve got to remember the No vote also won unexpectedly in the Western Isles, given that Na h-Eileanan an Iar is a Westminster SNP/Labour marginal then the SNP could also be in trouble here. So we could be looking at the SNP loosing three of the six seats they currently hold – two of them to the Tories, one of them to Labour.<br /><br />I can’t see the SNP winning many seats to the Libdems. Although the Libdems will loose a lot of seats, we have to remember the Highlands normally vote based on personality, not parties – and that makes me think they’ll hold several of their seats there. With Danny Alexander even holding his – if he doesn’t, I am confident that Labour will be their biggest challengers. (In fact, Labour finished second in that seat in 2010!). No wonder Salmond will not contest it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60688062942073031292014-11-29T18:42:33.276+00:002014-11-29T18:42:33.276+00:00But will that damage - if it occurs at all - be pe...But will that damage - if it occurs at all - be permanent? The media gloss will wear off eventually as the hard reality bites. We shall have to wait and see....smerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34699088985860179662014-11-29T18:06:08.075+00:002014-11-29T18:06:08.075+00:00To be fair the Ipsos Mori showing the SNP with a 2...To be fair the Ipsos Mori showing the SNP with a 29-point lead was bound to lead to disappointment in successive polls. But I know what you mean, I'm slightly concerned the media frenzy over these placebo powers could do real damage to the party's lead. FitzyMannoreply@blogger.com