Friday, October 30, 2020

History made again as Yes vote soars to 56% - the highest ever in an online poll

Today brings word of something of an oddity - the first ever poll on independence conducted by a firm called JL Partners, which doesn't seem to be affiliated to the British Polling Council (or not yet, at any rate).  However, the pedigree of the people running it appears to be beyond question.  How and why the poll was commissioned is unclear, because the fieldwork took place well over a month ago, meaning it is less recent than the Savanta ComRes poll that put Yes on 53%, or the legendary Ipsos-Mori telephone poll that had Yes on an all-time high of 58%. For some reason the results have been held back until publication today in Politico, who don't appear to have been the clients.  

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (JL Partners, 17th-21st September 2020)

Yes 56%
No 44%

As far as I can see this is the highest ever Yes vote in an online poll, slightly exceeding the 55% recorded in a Panelbase poll commissioned by Business for Scotland in August.  I would usually add the caveat that it's difficult to find records of polls conducted in the early days of devolution, when TNS/System Three quite often reported pro-independence majorities.  However, to the best of my recollection those were all face-to-face polls, and I don't think there was anything quite like this anyway.

I think there may well be something in the suspicion that has been expressed in the comments section that this was originally an internal poll - maybe for the UK government, maybe for a political party, or maybe for a very well-financed unionist organisation.  The giveaway is the sheer number of supplementary questions that were asked.  I can imagine a pollster self-funding a poll on independence to advertise its services, but there's no way it would go to quite these lengths.  So the million dollar question is: why would a unionist client want to belatedly publicise some extremely negative results? Perhaps there's some kind of internal battle going on, and someone wants to change the narrative.  The poll has been framed as reflecting very badly on Boris Johnson's leadership (and in fairness it objectively *does* reflect very badly on Boris Johnson's leadership), so that may be a little clue.

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election: 

SNP 56%
Conservatives 18%
Labour 15%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Greens 3%

This appears to be the SNP's best ever vote share in a Westminster poll - even in the run-up to the 2015 election they didn't exceed 54%. It's also the Tories' worst showing, and their first sub-20 showing, in a Westminster poll since last year's election.  Labour, meanwhile, have equalled their lowest share since last December.

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions: 

SNP 58%
Conservatives 18%
Labour 12%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Greens 2%

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 54%
Conservatives 18%
Labour 13%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Greens 5%

Those are obviously catastrophic results for the Tories, but it gets worse.  There's also a question on public attitudes towards the Conservative party, and it brutally unmasks the extent of hatred among people who don't vote Tory.  73% have a negative view, and only 22% have a positive view - just barely above the actual current Tory vote, which is already down to the abysmally low levels John Major was receiving in the mid-to-late 90s.  The whole Ruth Davidson circus might as well never have happened.

46 comments:

  1. I have been posting for about the last 3 years that, when and if, there is an indyref2 the result will be:

    YES 58.3% NO 41.7%

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  2. I can't say I've heard on JL Partners either, but they appear to be following BPC rules in regards to publishing the data tables [https://www.jlpartners.co.uk/s/301020-Scotland-JL-Partners-tables.xlsx]

    The data set is huge - 249 tables. The questions asked makes it look like internal campaigning polling; I would be surprised if this has been commissioned by a political campaign.

    They asked election polling questions too:
    Westminster VI: SNP 56%; Con 18%; Lab 15%; Lib 7%; Grn 3%
    Constituency VI: SNP 58%; Con 18%; Lab 12%; Lib 8%; Grn 2%
    List VI: SNP 54%; Con 18%; Lab 13%; Lib 8%; Grn 5%

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    1. JL appear to be new. Their website say the two key individuals who have founded this company have worked largely for the Tory Party for the last few years.

      Make of that what you will.

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    2. Aye, It will be much harder to get a prominent figure to front the NO campaign. This time it looks more like Scotland V the English Tories. Any Brown/Darling figure will risk for the rest of their lives being remembered as opposing the Independence of their own country. We will remember them.

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  3. There's an article written by the person who runs this company in which he gives advice on how the UK gov can save the Union, James.

    He mentions that he ran a few focus groups in Scotland on behalf of Theresa May and this is where the 'now is not the time' response came from, and he mentions revisiting the same groups and finding a shift in the peoples responses, so this may be another UK Gov backed poll.
    The fact they ask so many questions on how Scots view particular individuals in the Tory and Labour parties, also suggest that this polls main purpose is to find out how the Union can best respond to the rising support for Independence.

    I suspect that this may very well be the '56% Yes' UK government poll that was spoken about a few weeks back?

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    1. I think you're right.
      There's a bit more here about the poll.
      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-hated-scotland-scottish-independence-poll-indyref2-b1447559.html

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    2. That article's proposals bear a remarkable similarity to those being promulgated around Gove & other senior Tories as their "new" strategy. No coincidence. Politico might have been taken for suckers by Tory pollsters JL Partners, and sold some 2nd hand goods.

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  4. But Scotland can't be independent cos Sturgeon and stuff!

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    1. How? What prime minister in their right mind would give a section 30 when they look like they’ll lose? Please help me understand. Thanks skier

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    2. You must remember the all knowing "Skier". Did so well with his predictions in 2014. Still full of it.

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  5. What’s the point of leading the opinion polls, when the SNP show no workable plan for an actual vote on the issue for the foreseeable future? This is so depressing. We have been woefully let down.

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    1. They intend to hold a referendum following May's election.

      That is a workable plan, as demonstrated in 2014.

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    2. Perhaps the SNP are playing their cards close to chest. You don't want Westminster to know how the plans are coming along or do you? How many folk are wanting in on what is going on with the planning for new indyref how many are sleekit unionists? I must stop thinking I get a sore head.

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    3. "They INTEND to hold a referendum." No date. SS will be happy. SS wants to wait another 5 years. The only card the Britnats have now is to delay delay delay delay.

      Not heard anyone in the SNP say a referendum with or WITHOUT a sec30 will take place after the May election in 2021 within any time period at all or no matter the economic situation or the pandemic situation. Always handy to hold on to your excuses.

      Have a peek inside Sturgeons handbag and you won't find any secret plans for independence just the knife she used to stab Salmond in the back.

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    4. Your faith is stronger than mine, I have to say. The SNP promised a referendum in the current parliament and we haven’t had one. Their only plan is to ask the Tories to give us a referendum at about the third time of asking. This is the same government that has no shame about starving poor children, so good luck with that. And to top it all off the SNP have refused to even discuss an alternative plan for a vote on independence when Westminster refuse to cooperate.

      We have five or six mandates for a referendum already. The UK government doesn’t care. Another mandate is not going to make any difference.

      We need to hold or own referendum or else put independence in the next manifesto and more than 50% of the vote means we start negotiations to leave the UK.

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    5. The Scottish public didn't want a referendum.

      A (narrow) minority backed pro-referendum parties in 2016. This delivered a Yes majority of parliamentarians, so the mandate was there to hold a iref, but going against the public and doing that would likely mean losing.

      The SNP started to push ahead and started asking May's government about an S30. May body swerved this by collapsing here administration and going for an election.

      The Scottish public gave the SNP a message about holding iref2 just 3 years after iref1 at that 2017 election, and the SNP rightly retreated.

      2 years on and the Scottish public have been reversing their opposition to iref2 and Yes. This was clear in polling, and the result of the 2019 UKGE.

      And so the SNP moved again on the S30. Then the pandemic hit, all hell broke loose, we are still in the shit, and have an election looming.

      If we held an iref now, if it was a Yes, unionists could try to overturn it in May. That would be their right and what they would definitely try to do, certainly with a narrow Yes. The public are not going to be happy either; lives before politics etc. A seriously risky gamble with no doorstep campaigning etc.

      One held shortly into the new term on a solid Yes party mandate which delivers a Yes is not going to be contested.

      If you want to win a referendum, you need to have a majority of the public wanting you to hold it. Having a majority of parliamentarians backing it is not enough. Did people not notice what happened 2011-2014? The SNP got a majority of seats, but Yes parties didn't get a majority of votes. The public didn't really want indy or the ref. Yes actually plunged to 30% in response to the SNP going ahead. Only with a long campaign - Yes's only hope - did Yes recover to the 45% mark where it had been in 2011.
      Anyone that tells you ‘but if we just held an iref the public would swing behind Yes simply due to the campaigning’ is a liar. Scotland has been in Yes campaign mode since 2011. The indy issue is one everybody has an opinion on and is constantly updating it based on events. It’s part of life now.

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    6. "We have five or six mandates for a referendum already."

      I count one (the 2016 manifesto), and that conditional and vaguely worded. If the SNP win an election on the explicit promise "We will hold a referendum", that does seem to change the game a bit. But I don't think they've done that since 2011. What additional mandates were you thinking of?

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    7. One essential condition of Scotland's independence is that rUK/England internationally recognises and accepts it eventually.

      If you believe the Tories will never give permission for S30, you have a bigger problem to explain away in why they would then accept any of the alternative routes to independence.

      The Bruce may have effectively freed Scotland in 1314, but it took another fourteen years and the near-capture of the English King to get a treaty. Is that the alternative route you want?

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  6. The people of Scotland want to be a normal independent country.

    What do the current SNP leadership want - coz it ain't independence.

    The SNP Groundhog Day coming soon next May- promise a referendum - win an election - ignore said promise.

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    1. What do the current SNP leadership want - coz it ain't independence.

      This is from Chapter 1, paragraph 1 of the unionist concern troll handbook right?

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    2. William - I think Toom Tabard is more appropriate.

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    3. Being trolled by a Tory SS who wants Scotland to be ruled by the Tories for the next 5 years on an independence blog and I want indepence next year and he says I am the Unionist troll. You are nothing but a weirdo stalker SS.

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    4. SS - references a Unionist concern troll handbook. He would know - he probably has his own copy with a big union flag on it and personally signed by a Britnat tosser like Gove.

      You see unlike SS - I do not call them unionists. That is way too much respect to give them. From 1707 it was never a Union it was always an English dictatorship with the mask called British - never a Union. If it was a Union you would have rights to democracy and the right to leave the union without going cap in hand like Sturgeon asking for a sec30. Sturgeon (William Purves) is Scotlands modern day Toom Tabard. If you haven't worked that out yet then maybe it's time for a care home for you.

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    5. I do envy your faith in present SNP leadership. I wish I had any...

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  7. The SNP must be taking lessons in own goals from the Labour party. Quiet simple, hold the deabate. Either the plan b motion gets rejected in which case its put to bed. Even if if it does get passed if you are convinced that plan A will work (ie the UK Gov will grant a section 30) then what is decided on as a Plan B is immaterial as it will not be needed.

    Instead by blocking debate they have managed to get elected officials critizing their own party (never a good look). Christ they have even managed to get Pete Wishart criticising the SNP.

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    1. Yes SS will be along soon to say that Wishart is a Unionist. I disagree I think he is just a plain old fashioned diddy.

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    2. Except the public couldn't give a rats ass about run of the mill internal squabbles, hence it's 58% SNP above.

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    3. SS calls trying to put Salmond in jail for possibly the rest of his life a " run of the mill internal squabble". This SS is a real sicko - no moral compass at all.

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  8. New Zealand has just had a referendum and an election but Scotland has to wait for ever for its indyref2.

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    1. Let's say we held an iref next week, and got a yes.

      What happens if unionists then win the election on a 'cancel indy' ticket?

      It would be legit. The will of the people. We'd have to cancel.

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    2. New Zeland is an independent, island nation with full powers over pandemic control and economic mitigation, including borders.

      It had 7 new covid cases yesterday.

      Only an prize idiot or unionist troll would try to compared the two.

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    3. Plenty of countries have had elections. The USA in a way worse Covid mess than Scotland is having its election.
      Only a Tory Britnat like SS would wants us not to have a referendum or an election. Only a Tory Britnat like SS would think the Britnat parties could possibly win an election.
      Only a Tory Britnat Like SS would want to try and scare Independence supporters by saying the Britnats might win. All part of the Britnat plan to delay delay delay and SS is playing his part.

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    4. SS says if the Britnats win the election on a cancel Indy ticket we would have to cancel a yes Indy ref result. That is your Tory Britnat logic right there. However when the SNP WIN ELECTION AFTER ELECTION Tory Britnats like SS say we cannot have a referendum.

      You have been well and truly rumbled SS.

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  9. The polls are great for Independence so why on earth are the SNP not just putting a mandate for actual independence in the manifesto for May 2021,

    I want to vote for independence next May. It would appear that certain people in the SNP do not want me to vote for independence.

    Is there any party that will let me vote for actual independence?

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  10. Do you SNP members get to vote for your new president? Naw that's a silly question I now realise that most of you haven't a clue about your own party so I'll just google it instead.

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  11. I was delighted in Dec last year when my Tory MP got his jotters. Any time I corresponded with him on any subject his replies always contained lies - not as many as a Trump or Scottish Skier (SS) but still annoying. When I wrote to my new SNP expressing my distain for the whole Salmond persecution scandal I never got a reply. Is this better than receiving a reply with lies from the Tory? It seems even some MPs just want to stick their head in the sand and wish it all away.

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  12. London has so much to lose.
    They will negotiate when Scotland is in an unarguable position of strength.
    That DOES NOT just mean an SNP majority in May, it means also the defeat of so many Unionist mouthpieces who can't get themselves elected in the constituencies.
    The mandate will be to start negotiations on Scotland's withdrawal from the UK.
    This I believe is the expectation of the Scottish people and any referendum would be confirmatory of the negotiated terms and be carried out under UN scrutiny, definitely not UK electoral commission.
    Declaring this pre-election would give the YES/SNP campaign a massive boost.
    London is gearing up for a huge battle to keep Scotland. We have to be ready.

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    1. "The mandate will be to start negotiations on Scotlands withdrawal from the UK."

      Now that would be great Ramstam - so I can expect to see that in the SNP manifesto for 2021 election. Why should I believe that you know this to be true Ramstam. You couldn't even tell me who wiped Salmond from the SNP history.

      "Declaring this pre - election would give the YES/SNP campaign a massive boost." Yes it would - but it would be even better if it was in the manifesto.

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  13. Careerists always back what the public want. They are the weathervanes of the political world.

    Given a majority of Scots now back independence, we can be sure that if there are careerists in the SNP, they will be backing indy to the hilt now Scots want it. If they don't, they'll lose their seats.

    Just like Boris - king of weathervanes - became a big fan of brexit once he saw doing so could advance his career.

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/how-boris-johnson-has-changed-his-views-on-europe

    It's why only 'independence supporting' (ahem) unionists tell you that 'populist careerists secretly back the union', even though the union is now increasingly unpopular, so no populist would touch it with a barge poll.

    Incidentally, watch the careerists in the unionist parties start crossing the floor shortly, the wind has changed direction in Scotland, and so the weathervanes will swing with it, accelerating the end of the UK.

    A majority support for indy changes everything. Even the BBC has started publishing articles on 'Is Scotland now heading for indy?'...

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    1. "Careerists always back what the public want. They are the weathervanes of the political world."

      Careerists back what their party wants, because the party has the greatest degree of control over their political future. What the public want is secondary to that. Polls tend to suggest (for example) that capital punishment is popular with the public, but among politicians it tends to be ideologues who back it rather than careerists.

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    2. Boris backed Brexit despite expecting the public to vote against it, because he saw that as the best way to advance inside the Tory party.

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  14. Scottish Skier says "Let's say we held an iref next week, and got a yes.

    What happens if unionists then win the election on a 'cancel indy' ticket?"

    That doesn't make any sense at all!
    If the majority vote for independence, how could the Unionists hope to then win a majority vote for rejoining the union?

    What do you imagine the argument that they would use to convince the majority to change their minds?

    Why would an independent Scotland even have a 're-join the Union' option as part of our political argument? Does any other former colony?

    Who is the charismatic leader of the union in Scotland who would sweep us Scots off our feet and convince us we are incapable of running our own affairs and need the clever Etonians like Boris, help us spend our money in the most suitable (for the South of England) way?

    We are being let down badly or even conned by the Murrels, SS, and will continue to be so while they remain enthralled to the Gender Woo Woo ideology.

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  15. Unknown - "that doesn't make sense"

    SS only makes sense if you realise he is a Tory Britnat.

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