Saturday, September 5, 2020

What price will the Scottish Liberal Democrats pay for becoming a pro-Brexit party?

By all accounts, one of the tactics that helped the Liberal Democrats to narrowly regain North-East Fife last year was describing themselves on the doorstep as "pro-UK, pro-EU", ie. painting themselves as the only party not asking relatively affluent, middle-of-the-road voters to choose between two political unions.  I said at the time that the messaging might work in the short-term, but was going to run out of road once Brexit actually occurred, because at that point being pro-UK wouldn't actually be compatible with being pro-EU.

If you think about it, though, it would in principle have been possible to maintain the slogan if Ed Davey had committed the Liberal Democrats to take Britain back into the EU as soon as possible.  It would have been dishonest in practice because there is zero prospect of a Lib Dem government, but nevertheless it would have been a way of holding the line.  That option has now been removed, because Davey has sheepishly confirmed that the Lib Dems will not be campaigning to rejoin the EU, and will instead merely be seeking a close relationship from the outside.

From a UK-wide perspective that makes perfect strategic sense, because it means that the Lib Dems can still be "the most pro-European of the main parties" while no longer being in a state of outright war with Leave voters or with the referendum result.  But it leaves the Scottish Lib Dems in an awful place - they said they'd never choose between the UK and the EU, but they have, and it's the EU they've rejected.  Actually it's worse than that, because the decision has been made for them by their boss in London.  

There's now a golden opportunity for the SNP to make some ground next year with pro-European voters in pockets of Lib Dem strength.  Much will probably depend on whether the Lib Dems succeed in convincing people that formal EU membership and a close relationship is not that big a difference.  That'll be a tough sell, I suspect.

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Just to think wildly out of the box for a moment, the recent turmoil in the Scottish Labour party has led me to wonder if it's ever occurred to Nicola Sturgeon to put feelers out, and discover whether one or two key figures within Labour might be interested in taking Cabinet positions in return for joining the pro-indy side.  It's a long shot, but if it worked it might finally break Scottish Labour and be a decisive tipping point for independence.  And never underestimate personal ambition - how else could some of these people ever hope to wield power? They wouldn't necessarily have to defect to the SNP - a model could be the way the Labour government in Wales co-opted the former Plaid leader Dafydd Elis-Thomas (he became a junior minister as an independent).

16 comments:

  1. I'm a bit surprised at the LibDems - there's still clearly a sizable chunk of voters who would happily support re-joining the EU at the earliest opportunity. This group of.people would appear to me to be the most likely group to consider voting for the LD and so courting them.would seem.to be the easiest route to get the party from 6% to 12% in the UK polls and abuild some credibility.

    On the Labour bit, I think the chances of that are very low, near-zero. What is more likely to work is to get some Labour figures to move to a position of disagreeing with independence but articulate that it is only for Scottish voters and who they elect to Holyrood to decide. Welsh Labour already appears in this position, as is (I think) Malcolm Chisholm.

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  2. Lib-Dems are almost irrelevant in Scotland. As for Labour, not "Scottish Labour" who don't exist, the prospect of any of them jumping ship to support independence seems to me unrealistic, despite the evidence that a sizable minority in their party will vote Yes in the next referendum. They are still in the huff that the S.N.P have "stolen" their policies, not to mention their constituencies, and will adhere to the "Bain" principle, even although it will merely hasten their demise.

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  3. There is no one among Labour's crop of MSPs worthy of Cabinet rank.

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  4. Seems the UK government's plan is to end the furlough scheme just in time for a hard brexit and new lockdowns as covid cases rise, so they can fund tax cuts for the wealthy.

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  5. The LD's did enjoy a slight increased vote in many Scottish seats at the 2019 General Election because they ran as a pro-EU party.

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  6. @Legerwood; surely true, and such a proposition would deface the SNP image.

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  7. Agreed, LibDem soft on EU and the Labour infighting are going to damage them both in Scotland

    Just wondering if this is a mistake ...or will consolidating the Unionist vote with the Tory Party give the British some help in first past the post votes?

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    1. Tories are standing on a mass unemployment ticket for Holyrood 2021 using an end to the furlough scheme (most EU countries are extending theirs for over a year) and a hard brexit for this.

      I can't see this winning them votes. They had their dead cat bounce in 2016/17 under Davidson.

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    2. True, I think the British would have preferred to use Labour but they’ve self destructed.

      Maybe the British don’t care how Holyrood vote goes.

      Are we being naive assuming that there WILL be a vote in May?

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    3. I suppose. No Section is the same as no election. If Scots can't vote freely to have a referendum, elections cease to have meaning, as the UK has made carrying out manifesto policies illegal for Yes parties.

      In effect, no Section 30 is the Belarus approach; Scots can vote, but unionist parties always win the election.

      I understand Alexander Lukashenko is supportive of Boris on this issue. UK and Belarus are Euorpe's last dictatorships.

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  8. Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could take yet another agent of the british state into the SNP and lavish cabinet status and bifg wages on them. its an opportunity that doesnt come round that oftento recruit people of mediocre intelligence and absolutely no commitment to Scottish self determination on the basis they might like the money in order to put another hole in a sicking ship.

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    1. Or vote for another party organised / promoted from the South of England.

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    2. "to recruit people of mediocre intelligence and absolutely no commitment to Scottish self determination on the basis they might like the money in order to put another hole in a sicking ship."

      But the hole's the whole point, and the prospect of speeding the sinking of the ship. I'm fine with James' proposal, and there is something very Scottish about dismissing it out of hand.

      End Scottish Cringe Labour forever. Sink the ship. That's all that matters. Who cares if a few Yoon arseholes get thrown lifebouys? If the idea was taken up, I'm sure Nicola's capable of choosing the least arseholish among them.

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  9. UK telling the world this morning not to strike trade deals with it as it will happily welch on these.

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  10. As I said, it's Brit unionists that are the junkies, both here and in England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54048122

    'Surprise and disappointment' at UK drug response

    A cross-party group of MPs has accused the UK government of the almost "wholesale rejection" of moves to tackle North Britain's record drug deaths.

    It's why the UK is the cocaine capital of Europe.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/britain-cocaine-capital-europe-class-22040681

    PM likes a snort himself and openly admits this.

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