Friday, September 11, 2020

Support for independence soars to 53% in sizzling Survation survey

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation, 2nd-7th September 2020)

Yes 53% (+3)
No 47% (-3)

Before anyone claims that this is not an increase for Yes at all, because the last poll had independence support at 55%, bear in mind that you always have to compare like with like.  That means comparing this Survation poll with the most recent poll from the same firm, which was conducted back in January.  At that time Survation's estimate of the Yes vote was running two points behind Panelbase's, and that is still the case.  So there's no direct contradiction of the all-time high Yes vote shown in the Panelbase poll, or indeed of the rumours that Yes have gone higher still in private polling - although admittedly 53% is not actually the highest that Survation themselves have ever shown.  The number went as high as 54% in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum.  But perhaps Survation's methodology has simply ceased to be on the Yes-friendly end of the spectrum in the way it once was.  We should probably just settle for what is, after all, the seventh consecutive poll showing an outright Yes majority - an almost unbelievable run of success.

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster:

SNP 51% 
Labour 21% 
Conservatives 20% 
Liberal Democrats 6% 

So for the first time in any poll from any firm in around eighteen months, the Conservatives are no longer in second place as far as Westminster voting intentions are concerned.  This is particularly embarrassing for Douglas Ross, who angrily demanded a BBC presenter supply proof that his party has gone backwards since he became leader.  Here's the proof, Douglas.

65 comments:

  1. James, can you give us an averaging of independence polling over the past month or so?

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    1. Why not look at the reports from Ballotbox Scotland? http://ballotbox.scot/

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    2. Because I couldn't find the averages on there.

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    3. The numbers on the graphs on Ballot Box Scotland are five poll averages.

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    4. Hey Fitzy, add up the totals and divide by the number of polls you retarded muppet.

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  2. And the disastrous britnat brexit to follow.

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  3. ...and Labour will race ahead when Jackie Baillie takes over😜

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  4. The British unionists need to do something about Boris and his English nats soon or the UK's over.

    All credit to Bozo for giving us our Yes majority; precisely the outcome you'd expect from the S30 refusal (the crossover is pre-covid).

    Telling unionists that their support for the union wasn't a choice couldn't have been more imbecilic. The man is a prize idiot.

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    1. The best is yet to come ;think George Foulkes put his hat in the ring saying he and Baillie were responsible for BBC taking lunchtime updates of Covid-19 and everything Foulks touches turns to shit he has the sadim touch.

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  5. Well, if the reports are to be believed, Scotland can go independent without fear of Westminster sending in the tanks.

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  7. Genuine question, but do people think the snp should refuse scots taxes in the form of e.g. short money from the UK parliament so England can fatten itself more with this?

    I personally think they should take every penny, but I appreciate why some bloggers from the South of England would prefer my taxes are spent there.

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  8. Your taxes aren,t spent anywhere. Read Prof Richard Murphy or The Deficit Myth for how it works.

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  9. 63 countries celebrate independence from England Overlords. Last I checked Australia and New Zealand and America and Canada etc were doing fine.

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  10. Jocknatsist fools

    What we gonna do

    Nuke 'em up like in World War II

    yeah

    Nuke 'em up like in World War II

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  11. If Johnson's new bill passes parliament, Scots must assume that England cannot be trusted as a country. We must assume it will break legally binding international agreements / laws - including S30s - without hesitation.

    Instead, Scotland must look to agree deals, including on indy and moving to be an EU/EEA member with our neighbours, who can be trusted.

    Same goes for Holyrood 2021. Whatever the Tories promise must be assumed as a lie that they will backtrack on if given the opportunity. They cannot be trusted and have no respect for the rule of law.

    If you believe firmly in the rule of law, it is clear the Tories are not the party for you. They are cheating criminals who engage in illegal activities.

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  12. This'll be why the ScotGov daily covid update has been dumped by the BBC.

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  13. Indeed, we can trust our neighbouring countries to the north and east to treat us as equals.
    EnglishUK opinion is conflicted on whether Scotland is part of or owned by the rUK.
    Much of the Tory press such as the Telegraph/Torygraph are expressing aggression and anger towards Scotland's democratically elected FM and also thrashing out at the EU for allegedly threatening the break-up of the UK.
    Madness on stilts.
    Meanwhile the movement from No to Yes gathers pace.
    They're in a panic, but they'll throw the kitchen sink at saving the moribund Union.
    The Yes movement needs to act now.
    We can't afford to wait to be told what to do. Strike when the iron's hot.
    We'll have allies in Europe if we do..

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  14. Uk justice Secretary now saying it's OK to break the law as long as you do so in a way that you personally find acceptable.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54137643

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  15. 244 covid cases in Scotland and rising. How long before faith in the Scottish Government begins to crumble. What covid bingeth covid taketh away.

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    1. The majority support for Yes is naff all to do with covid, predating this. Crossover occurred in February.

      It is the result of Johnson's S30 refusal. That broke the union fundamentally. He told No voters that they had no say; that their support for the UK was his / England's decision, not theirs. He took the vote away from Scots unionists. Fucking idiot.

      3,330 new cases in the UK incidentally, ergo per capita, Scotland has notably less (about 20% lower).

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    2. Unlike Johnson, Cameron had more than two brains cells. He understood fine well that if he didn't agree to an iref from the outset, Yes would move into permanent majority and the union would break.

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    4. Nonsense, if Cameron didn't agree to indyref Yes would still be on 30%, and if he didn't agree to the EU ref, the UK would still be in the EU. It's Cameron that's the fucking idiot.

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    5. Scottish numbers: 13 September 2020
      244 new confirmed cases of COVID-19; this is 3.7% of newly tested individuals

      That's 3.7% not 1.3% from Scotgov website today.

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    6. The WHO have covid in Scotland as 'under control' according to those numbers.

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    7. Anyway, Scots are waiting to see if the UK will extend furlough out to end 2021+ like European countries or put a huge chunk of the population of a job at the end of October.

      Unionists better prey the covid numbers fall as without a furlough scheme, Yes will soar even further.

      Boris said no and Yes went into majority almost overnight in polling terms. His only hope is to rapidly reverse that decision, which was Lloyd George like in levels of stupidity.

      In the meantime, it's great walking around knowing most folk support indy. Unionism is just a minority pursuit these days.

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    8. Deadly infectious disease with cases rising exponentially: "under control"

      Hokay!

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    9. WHO expert definitions are trusted somewhat more than some random on the internet's opinion.

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    10. Because the WHO are well known for ignoring trends in data! They just focus on definitions.

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    11. It's OK because positive tests are under 5%. Doesn't seem to be what the WHO thinks Hmmmm

      'The World Health Organization expects Europe to see a rise in the daily number of Covid-19 deaths in October and November, the head of the body’s European branch has told AFP.

      “It’s going to get tougher. In October, November, we are going to see more mortality,” the WHO Europe director, Hans Kluge, said, as the continent experiences a surge of cases though the number of deaths has remained relatively stable.

      The resurgence is, however, expected to lead to an increase in daily deaths, the WHO said.'

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  16. Yes had been in majority for at least 0.5 years now and counting; it's never done that before.

    It's the new norm.

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    1. When everyone realises that Scotgov response to the pandemic is just as shambolic as that of UK gov, support for Yes will simply fade away to where it was before.

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    2. You hold onto that forlorn hope if it gives you comfort.

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    3. Poor, deluded little Skier, your faith would be almost comical if it were not so sad.

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    4. If full furlough ends the union ends.

      Just like the 2008/9 financial crisis and associated unemployment catapulted the SNP to a historic 2011 win and Yes from 30 to 45%.

      Watch and see.

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    5. We'll check on 31st October to see if Union ends. Careful you don't get too much of a fright.

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    6. I think you're right though Skier, a la 2008. Crisis, government in situ is perceived to have mismanaged it. Gets blamed for perceived mismanagement by the electorate through the ballotbox at the next election. Watch this space.

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    7. I am watching. 51% SNP in the above poll.

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    8. And the SNP were in government prior to 2011; they had been since 2007. They were 'the government' during the 2008/9 financial crisis.

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    9. The SNP in 2008 had no power or say over the fiscal, economic and financial conduct responsibilities that were held in London which contributed to causing and exascerbating the crisis. So no blame, that fell on Labour in London. Covid very different, public health is a devolved matter and the SNP have abandoned the four nations approach and put themselves front and centre.

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    10. The SNP likewise currently have little to no say over the fiscal, economic and financial situation which can and is exacerbating the covid related economic crisis. Scots are quite aware who is ending the furlough scheme and why Holyrood can't do another full lockdown to prevent an exponential spread because of that. If the bodies start piling up alongside the dole queues, it won't be Sturgeon getting the blame.

      Covid management is primarily a Westminster reserved matter and everyone knows it. Hence the polling the way it is.

      If you want Scots to blame holyrood for everything, then vote Yes! otherwise, they will blame Westminster, rightly, for most things because all key powers are its responsibility.

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  17. UK government are going to struggle to claim an indy ref isn't allowed as it would be 'illegal'.

    According to the UK justice secretary, Scotland could actually hold a 100% completely illegal iref 'if Scots feels that is acceptable to protect Scotland's sovereignty'.

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    1. How do you get the non SNP councils to agree to it? As I understand It, without their co operation there can be no referendum?

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    2. Basically you pass a law and invite them to obey the law. Tories might struggle with the concept, but we can but try.

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  18. 100% completely illegal iref, now that's some going!

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    1. The referendum will be legal under international / European law.

      However, the UK government are saying a completely illegal one is actually fine. Their words, not mine.

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    2. Actually fine for getting rid of Unionist shite, such as the bile that you post, GWC.

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    3. Why for achieving independence of course.

      In fact an iref is not needed according to Johnson. The SNP can simply legislate to undo the treaty of union. UK says such treaties are meaningless and can be binned as soon as they are signed.

      This is what Johnson and co are saying to Scots right now, not me.

      If you want to lecture on the rule of law, you should abide by the rule of law yourself.

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    4. Should iref2 end up in court, 'HMG vs the EU brexit bill' can be held up as the UK legal precedent for such matters. The treaty of union can be undone by a simple Holyrood bill if the Scottish government decide it impinges on the sovereignty of Scotland.

      Johnson is setting the example here.

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    5. Well put - if only Nicola was convinced of this too.

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  19. Dear Mr Mc*******

    Thank you for contacting us.

    As we continue to provide essential public information on the current pandemic, we will, from next week (w/b 14th September), be adapting how we cover the regular Scottish Government briefings. We will still provide a significant amount of live coverage – on TV, radio and online – and all the key news issues will feature prominently across our output. BBC Radio Scotland and the BBC News Channel will continue to broadcast parts of the briefings live, based on news value, as they currently do, and we will continue to stream all of the briefings live and in their entirety on our news website. They will also feature prominently on the BBC Scotland channel news output and on our BBC One news programmes.

    Likewise, we will continue to provide live TV coverage of First Minister updates in Holyrood, as we did on Thursday 10th September, when a statement was delivered on the official three-weekly lockdown review, and as we have been doing with First Minister’s Questions for the past weeks.

    However we won’t necessarily cover every single briefing live on TV. Rather, we will cover them based on their news value, on what information is being imparted by the Scottish Government. Where it is appropriate to cover the briefings in their entirety, on TV, we will do so. That is not, nor has it ever been, in question. And that’s exactly the same approach taken towards Welsh Government briefings, by BBC Wales, and by network colleagues who are looking to cover the forthcoming UK Government briefings. By way of example, Monday (14th) sees the introduction of new restrictions in Scotland and we will cover the lunchtime briefing live, on TV, on BBC One Scotland and on the BBC Scotland channel in the same way that our colleagues in Wales will be covering the Welsh Government briefing that day.

    We will also continue to cover Scottish Government press conferences and statements and we will continue to provide live output beyond the lunchtime briefing slot, such as we did recently when the government announced further restrictions on households in Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire.

    In addition, we will continue to send our cameras daily and broadcast the main points from the briefings on our programmes that follow.

    We will continue all our activity based on News values. With Holyrood and other sectors, such as education, now returning to business, this slight adjustment to our approach will allow us to continue to cover all of the key points while we look also to provide comprehensive news coverage of parliamentary and other business. As you’d expect, our overall coverage will bring a range of voices into the discussions, offering enhanced opportunities for scrutiny and analysis by both politicians and commentators.

    We emphasise that we will keep these arrangements under review and will, as said, cover the live briefings on television when it is right and in the public interest to do so.

    Kind regards,

    BBC Complaints Team
    www.bbc.co.uk/complaints

    #My response from BBC complaints#

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    1. Thanks for sharing. I remain intrigued as to how they can decide in advance what briefings will be worthy of being broadcast live. And why, if their cameras are going to be there, they don’t just broadcast it. They really are taking the p***

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  20. When Bozo signed the Brexit withdrawal agreement, he did so on behalf of the Queen. He gave her word to all the countries of the EU/EEA that the UK would honor the agreement.

    Has he checked with her as to whether it's ok to break her word? She'll have to meet up with other heads of state to explain herself in due course.

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  21. Britnats are a disgrace. They actually want the number of Covid cases to rise in Scotland. They are like dogs who have been relentlessly whipped by their English masters and are now completely mad. Britnats really are pitiful creatures.

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  22. Is there "more to follow" and if yes when is this likely to happen? Thanks.

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  23. As we all suspected.

    A lot of blood on the UK government's hands; all with the aim of lower taxes for the wealthy.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54150538

    Chief scientist 'told off' for lockdown plea

    The government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has said he was rebuked for arguing strongly in favour of imposing Covid lockdown restrictions earlier this year, it has emerged.

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  24. England's plan to end UK furlough in the face of rising covid infections + lockdowns now driving up unemployment.

    Meanwhile, English MPs vote to openly break international law and break the Queen's solemn word.

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  25. The BBC are now trolling independence supporters re the daily briefings. Are they on today or tomorrow ( maybe ayes maybe naws) and on which chanel (who knows) and under which description ( who knows).

    The BBC used to just be a propaganda broadcaster for the British state but it has upped its game to be a total arse. The whole lot of them need dumping in the Clyde and told to swim to London.

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  26. Scottish Skier

    Can you tell me what ur source is for this statement please:

    "In fact an iref is not needed according to Johnson. The SNP can simply legislate to undo the treaty of union. UK says such treaties are meaningless and can be binned as soon as they are signed."

    And

    "The treaty of union can be undone by a simple Holyrood bill if the Scottish government decide it impinges on the sovereignty of Scotland." or at least clarify what you mean.

    Thanks

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    1. Yesterday, the UK parliament voted to break international law to 'protect the sovereignty of the country' because Johnson says that's fine for Scots/E/W/NI (UK peoples and their government) to do.

      The law passed was to (potentially) undo the major constitutional international union treaty which is the brexit withdrawal agreement. No referendum was held to ask the Scots/W/E/NI whether this was ok. Johnson has made it clear he saw no need for a vote.

      While Johnson talked about great Britain/the UK, that includes us Scots, obviously. We are the UK along with our fellow brits. He's showing us Scots, by precedent, that breaking international laws / treaties is fine for the peoples of the UK.

      ...As long as the action is done to 'protect the sovereignty of the country and it's borders', which Scots indy obviously does in an identical way to brexit, particularly with the current attack on Holyrood powers.

      Lawyers love precedents, especially in the UK where there is no constitution. What's good for the goose is good for the gander as they say.

      Of course I'm not saying the SNP should rush out and break international law. Quite the opposite. However, Johnson is making it very difficult for himself to oppose an iref in court; the argument he is using right now is the same one the Scottish government would use and they'd have far more justification as we are just talking about a repeat democratic vote which was previously considered fine.

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