Saturday, May 2, 2020

The vast majority of the British public want to extend the lockdown, according to new YouGov poll

First of all, I have an article in The National with more analysis of yesterday's sensational YouGov poll, which showed the SNP on an almost unbelievable 54% of the Holyrood constituency vote.  You can read it HERE.

But there was also another significant YouGov poll yesterday, which asked respondents across Britain for their views on extending the lockdown.  The verdict was emphatic - a total of 77% of Britons think the lockdown should continue and a mere 15% disagree.  Among the Scottish subsample, the majority is even bigger - 80% to 12%.  This once again exposes the media narrative of "public pressure to get back to normal" as utterly bogus.  It's not that anyone likes being under lockdown - but it looks like the vast majority of people realise that it's by far the lesser of the two available evils.

If you haven't already seen it, you might also be interested in this long video interview from a few days ago with Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, who has (since mid-March at any rate) been one of the 'doves' on SAGE arguing against a 'herd immunity' strategy and in favour of a full-on suppression strategy.  He makes a number of interesting points, but there are a couple that particularly address some of the red herrings that are regularly raised by the usual suspects in the comments section of this blog.  He explains that it's simply not the case that what is happening in Sweden can be taken as an example of the end result of a country following a mitigation (ie. herd immunity) strategy, because in fact Sweden's strategy is a halfway house - he describes it is a semi-suppression strategy which has dramatically reduced the reproduction rate of the virus, but not to below 1.  In many ways that leaves Sweden with the worst of all worlds, because there's enough social distancing to ensure that collective immunity won't be achieved in the foreseeable future, but the virus is still rampant enough to be causing carnage in environments like care homes. In a perverse way the Swedish approach looks like survival of the fittest for the elderly and other vulnerable groups, but with a degree of protection for everyone else.

Ferguson also highlights the magical thinking of those who argue that lockdown causes more harm than the virus itself would in the absence of lockdown.  He points out that some of the harms ascribed to lockdown are actually caused by the virus, and that if you lifted the lockdown they would get a lot worse rather than better.  For example, people may be currently dying of non-coronavirus conditions because they're not accessing the health service, or because the health service doesn't have the capacity to help them.  But if you decide "there's more to life than the virus" (as someone absurdly said on Twitter yesterday), and act as if the problem isn't there anymore so that you can get on with other things, that doesn't mean the virus goes away - quite the reverse.  Without suppression measures it comes back with a vengeance, the NHS will be totally overwhelmed, and people with other conditions won't have a hope of getting the care they need.  Non-coronavirus excess deaths will further increase, not decrease.  OK, eventually the epidemic will pass of its own accord, but that will take several months, and by then the damage will have been done.

45 comments:

  1. The Neil Ferguson video is well worth a watch for those that want to understand a bit more about the arguements on both sides.

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    1. Some friendly advice for thepnr. Waste of time discussing anything with a Britnat turd like GWC.

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    2. I'll restrain myself, no point in debating with an idiot.

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    3. True. It's difficult to engage in a battle of wits with someone as unarmed as Covidia.

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  2. I would not listen to the various opinions of so called experts. The Virus is a mass killer we know that and do not need to be lectured about it. The lock down needs to continue for as long as required. The governments need to ensure the people are fed and have a roof over their heads. Emergency powers to ensure no one is made homeless is required. Let the medics the real experts do their jobs.

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    1. Knowledge is passed on from Master to Student in the form of lectures. It is generally how people learn. Those that wish to remain ignorant don't attend lectures and ignore the Masters knowledge believing they know better themselves.

      People like you.

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    2. Well the Masters have failed and the students who had to cut their courses short are wearing the gear saving lives. You are a rather swelt heided obnoxious type Thepnr but that is not unusual amongst Nat sis. Even Trump is ahead of the Masters.

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    3. You flatter me, but I know you're like that with everyone.

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  3. Here's more experts, that are reporting the weekly mortality rate across 24 countries in the EU using each countries official statistics.

    Specically they their job is "aiming to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats".

    One glance at the first graph shows how deadly Covid-19 is compared to seasonal flu, to ignore this would be costly indeed.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

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    1. Only experts can count the dead and report the toll. We all know how deadly the virus is it is reported on the telly constantly.

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    2. I thought idle Brexiteers had had enough of experts. To the fields with you.

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  4. https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/29/lokin-20-the-lockdown-regime-causes-increasing-health-concerns/

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    1. Ignorant guff, take a look at the reality between seasonal flu and Covid-19.

      https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

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    2. Thepnr is a Nat si self appointed expert on all conditions known to man.

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    3. I am only providing links to real experts and not made up guff on right wing blogs. You just spout guff, sad really.

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    4. Right or Left is totally irrelevant when lives need saved. You should end your guff and go and pick fruit you armchair dandruff. Know anyone who does home visit hair cutting?

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    5. Lying is never irrelevant and that article is full of lies.

      I voted remain, I believe you Brexiteers volunteered for the fruit picking this year. Or was that just another lie? :o)

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    6. I thought you Scottish Middle Class Nat sis were going to bring in some unemployed darkies to put food on your table. The British capitalist system has fed and watered you since birth. You are weaklings and bloated.

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    7. Archibald Maule Ramsay, Scottish Unionist MP ,interned for duration of WW2.

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    8. He would have made a good Scottish Nat si. Anti Semite anti Jew and against an Israeli State.

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    9. Gross Witless Controversialist, you are diseased. Which in your case seems to be incurable, alas. Attention-deficit disorder. Absolutely gagging for attention. Nothing too offensive an obstacle, it would seem.

      It makes for a rather pathetic public spectacle, and sadly only you don't seem to realise it.

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    10. Funny that, he was a Unionist MP.

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    11. Covidia never lets details get in the way of a diseased rant.

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  5. James - as you're someone with an interest in the 'test, trace, and isolate' thing, I should tell you that it is a fiasco in Edinburgh. A real life ecample is if your flatmate has the virus, you don't get tested. Even when you work in a care home. Seriously.

    There is a care home in Edinburgh where 11 of the inmates have died with coronavirus, and none of the staff have been tested, even though they are supposed to be. It's beyond a joke.

    Also, I recieved a letter from the government telling people who come into contact with someone infected to self-isolate for 3 weeks. The doctor's advice yesterday was to self-isolate for two weeks (which is the officially communicated Scottish NHS advice).

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    1. Use your own common sense and isolate for a wee bit more in the interest of yourself and others.

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    2. Physician, heal yourself.

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  6. R in Sweden has been below 1 for the last week. It may be a slower suppression than some other countries but possibly less susceptibility to a second wave. There are be different ways. Anyone who is confident in this situation is likely to be wrong.

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    1. Why on earth would they be less susceptible to a second wave? If they've managed to suppress transmission without full lockdown (I'm not aware that they have, but that's what you're saying), that's great, but suppression means no herd immunity.

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  7. Thinking about it, another thing: There was a 100% difference between the NHS advice on the duration of self isolation if you exhibit some symptoms (7 days), and the advice in the government letter (14 days). Strange.

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    1. Perhaps you should read it again. If you have symptoms you should isolate for 7 days and can then return to work IF the symptoms have gone. Anyone living in the same household with you should isolate for 14 days - 7 days incubation + 7 days symptoms.
      That was the advice from the UK Gov in the booklet they circulated with the letter from Boris. Similar advice was circulated by the SG.

      The WHO guidelines for anyone showing symptoms was to self isolate until symptoms disappeared the continue self isolating for at least a further 7 days .

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    2. The UK Gov and the fringe govs are in agreement however Scottish fanatic Nat sis are playing politics and attempting division with their usual hatred of the English.

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    3. Christ you are paranoid with your 'Everyone hates us brits' shit. What an insecure people. You'll never handle brexit unless you have more confidence in yourselves.

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    4. I am GWC not christ.

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    5. GWC you are just a stinky Britnat turd. To be avoided at all times.

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    6. Aye, he was quite a confident, secure person, comfortable with himself, and didn't constantly think everyone hated him.

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    7. Covidia constantly picks fights on here to reinforce its British nationalist sense of victimhood.

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  8. James as ever you are spot on regards the virus.

    Pity you can't see that the phoney independence supporters in the SNP/Scotgov need to be removed or it will make no difference if the polls are even saying 70 % for independence and 75% for the SNP. More excuses will be found more mandates will be required.

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    1. James has the cure, just vote Nat si.

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    2. Covidia has a terminal case of Britnatsi exceptionalism.

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  9. You'll find all the phoney Independence supporters over on the Wings Over Scotland blog. It's full of them.

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    1. Pete Wishart, Alyn, Johnny N, Big Gay Stuart and the rest are not, as far as I am aware, regular posters on Wings. No phonier Yessers than that lot. Apart from madmentalnicky. The dissembler in chief.

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  10. I might not like the lock-down but then who does except maybe the landed Toffs who want to keep us from the Hills, Mts etc.

    I will live with the lock-down as I am not a psycho Brit Tory or a lick-spittle Yoon. Oh and if the SNP also close the border to save Scots lives.

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  11. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52519440

    Rival group to UK government's scientific advice set up

    A lack of transparency over the advice guiding the UK government's coronavirus response has spurred a former chief scientific adviser to create his own "independent" group.

    Sir David King said he was worried about the lack of transparency around the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) committee and keen to "demonstrate what independent science advice looks like".

    “When I was in government I was facing you guys (the press) myself as chief scientific adviser.

    "I don’t see that Sir Patrick (Vallance) is being allowed to come onto broadcasting corporations... to say what his advice is independently," he said.

    Sir David raised concerns about Boris Johnson's chief adviser Dominic Cummings attending Sage meetings.

    Sir David said his group "is really there to illustrate the importance of transparency".

    "That’s how you gain the trust of the public," he said.

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  12. Any comment on your old friend Mike Tiny sharing the new Daniel gravel attack piece on Salmond and any Yesser defending him against sturgeon's coven?

    I saw he attacked on of his own contributors for questioning her lies. Not a very nice man. And all of the GRA supporting wet-nats cheering her on. Makes you sick.

    Especially since the alphabet women admitted conspiring to destroy Salmond. An actual verified conspiracy. But that is being sent down the memory hole.

    I'm not going to forget. And if madmentalnicky thinks she can escape her fate thanks to the beerbug then she's very sadly mistaken.

    A First Minister using civil servants and the tame courts as her own personal hit squad. She's going to prison for the rest of her life.

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