Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Stunning telephone poll finds almost TWO-THIRDS of the Scottish public want a second independence referendum

There's been a fair bit of polling news in the last 24 hours. Ben Page of Ipsos-Mori tweeted another finding from the telephone poll conducted in the middle of this month - it shows that 63% of the Scottish public want a second independence referendum to take place at some point, and only 34% don't. That's essentially a two-to-one margin after Don't Knows are excluded. 53% want an indyref within the next five years, and 34% want it within the next two years. I think that's highly significant - by mid-May we were very deep into the worst international crisis since the Second World War, and yet clearly that hadn't deterred people from the thought of making a choice about a big constitutional change. Indeed, I'm sure for some people that change may now seem even more urgent.

(Incidentally, Ben Page subsequently deleted his tweet, so I'm not sure if he accidentally broke his own firm's embargo.)

There's also a GB-wide YouGov poll showing a collapse in the Tory lead from fifteen points to six. Given that Keir Starmer's personal ratings suggest the public are warming to the new Labour leader in spite of his lack of charisma, I suspect the Labour resurgence south of the border could be here to stay, and may have further to run. So the big question for the SNP is whether they can hold their commanding lead in Scotland in a new environment where Labour look like credible long-term challengers for power. So far, they're managing to do so, if the Scottish subsample from the poll is to be believed -

SNP 54%, Conservatives 20%, Labour 16%, Greens 4%, Liberal Democrats 3%, Brexit Party 1%

Scottish Labour will doubtless be banking on a turnaround once the crisis subsides and Nicola Sturgeon no longer has the advantage of being a 'war leader'. But they shouldn't make any assumptions - there have been spells since the autumn of 2014 when Labour looked like serious contenders under both Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn, but the SNP have maintained some sort of lead throughout.

*  *  *

A few people (maybe four or five) have suggested that I should commission another opinion poll on independence soon.  I was initially surprised by the idea, because of course there was a Panelbase poll on independence commissioned by Wings extremely recently.  However, that was pre-Cummings, and the theory is that there may have been a boost for Yes as a result of that lovely day out in Barnard Castle.  To be honest, I'm not at all sure whether it's a good idea to be attempting a crowdfunder in the middle of a pandemic when people are struggling so much, but if anyone has any strong views on the subject, feel free to leave a comment below, and I'll assess whether there's enough appetite for it.  Bear in mind that there's never any way of knowing when an independence poll might suddenly pop up in a newspaper anyway.

There might well be a more optimal moment later in the year, but I've got an open mind, so let me know what you think.

*  *  *


40 comments:

  1. ''A few people (maybe four or five) have suggested that I should commission another opinion poll on independence soon.''

    I'll support that. On a regular basis in fact.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yeah, I've seen quite a few people on social media saying that Domcumgate has pushed them over the Yes threshold. Seems a bit of a weird reason to me, but converts are always welcome.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it stems from the "too wee, too poor, too stupid" philosophy; people are now starting to think "well, we may be wee and poor, but we're not that f--king stupid!"

      Delete
    2. Not that weird. Exposes rotten heart of the UK state

      Delete
  3. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 27, 2020 at 7:43 PM

    The BBC trying to kid on that they are impartial. What a bunch of clowns. Every day their output in Scotland is anti Scottish - everything about Scotland according to all the British media in Scotland is rubbish.

    ReplyDelete
  4. aye, please do another poll james, we have moved above 50% for yes/snp in recent polls, i would like to see if that has solidified. it changes everything, everything james. a consistent 55% in the polls might convince nicola to use holyrood2021 as the plebicite for indy. no s30 required and the unionists will take part

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 27, 2020 at 10:19 PM

      Do the SNP not do their own polls? If as Thepnr is always saying Nicola Sturgeon is waiting for the people of Scotland to tell her they want independence then how else will they know this.

      Nicola - I want independence.

      Delete
    2. I've never once said "Nicola Sturgeon is waiting for the people of Scotland to tell her they want independence" anywhere ever.

      Don't make up shit about what I've said. Ta.

      Delete
    3. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 28, 2020 at 12:44 AM

      Somebody impersonating Thepnr.

      Delete
  5. Another poll? There's two ways of looking at this. A Cummings boost could encourage others over to Yes if they see a surge. On the other hand, it could be a transitory boost due to exceptional circumstances and could slip back down again at the next poll, handing ammunition to the Unionists.

    I would say "Now is not the time."

    ReplyDelete
  6. Cummings cannae be much of a superforecaster if he didnae see aw this coming.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'd happily throw a few quid in for a survey, James.

    ReplyDelete
  8. It appears a strong majority of Scotland now wants Independence and all they're thinking about is the when's a good time to have it

    Well I would suggest there's no bad time because the world happens around us every day and everything changes from day to day but not having Independence means Scotland doesn't have the powers it needs to tackle anything whatever happens meaning we'd always have to wait for Tories at Westminster to decide anything because we don't have control of our own finances

    So there's no good or bad time to have Independence we just have to do it and make a start on the same problems every other country in the world has but with Independence Scotland would be in the same position as them.....IN CONTROL

    Remember that phrase

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 27, 2020 at 10:26 PM

      Yes - let's take back control from the Britnat Brexiteer Bampots in London. A cabinet of monkeys in London could do a better job than these Brexiteer bampots. Just think if Bonking Boris had succumbed to the virus or if he resigns early due to ill health then that total nutter Priti Patel could be PM.

      All this waiting is just plain stupid. Get on with it Nicola or get out the way. Or as someone said get on or get out.

      Delete
  9. Boris and his mutant advisor are doing the independence cause a lot of good ..

    Their stubbornness with refusing to extend negotiations with the EU will be the final nail in the coffin for the yoonyin

    ReplyDelete
  10. To my impersonator: you have now reached the end of the road. You'll have to find somewhere else to post your 'hilarious' comments, because you've left me with no option but to delete every single comment that could even conceivably be from you. I can tolerate a lot, but I can't tolerate someone issuing fake moderation decisions that purport to come from me (and that use a real Google account to make them look authentic).

    What will you do with your time now? And, in the immortal words of Barry Davies, who cares?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A click of the name obviously tells the reader whether it's the real James Kelly or not.

      Delete
    2. Not necessarily - I use two accounts to save me having to switch when I'm signed in to a particular email.

      Delete
    3. You are right to ban this person, those that attempt to impersonate another person do it for one reson only and that is to disrupt and ridicule this blog, your writings and those that are genuine posters.

      They are not supporters of Independence and that much is certain.

      Delete
  11. Jock: I've deleted your rather gratuitous comment. You'll have to make your own decisions, but what I would say is that if you were one of the several dozen people I was forced to block as a result of that Twitter pile-on a few weeks ago, then a) I make no apologies to you whatsoever, and b) I think you should reflect on your own actions rather than whingeing about me taking the obvious step in response.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jock: reply deleted, although really it's your own embarrassment I've spared by doing so. You showed your true colours and they aren't pretty. Don't ever attempt to post a comment on this blog again.

      Delete
  12. On the timing question, a thought occured to me that there may be a natural tendency for a lot of folk to not want to select the shortest option, as "I want independence, but I'm not wanting to be too hasty". So the actual timescale might not be that meaningful: if the options had been 1)tomorrow 2)in the next two years 3)in the next five years I wouldn't be surprised if the split would have been pretty similar.

    ReplyDelete
  13. James is there any point in having an independence poll anytime soon as the current leadership all appear to have settled in rather than settle up.

    It reminds me of the old insult we used to put to Labour supporters,

    "the working class can kiss my A*** ihave got the gaffers job at last.

    For the SNP,

    All you independence supporters can get to hell, I,m a MP now and I am doing well.

    15plus years SNP member, scunnered.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's what happens when you join the Tartan Tories. What a waste.

      Delete
    2. Not an SNP member but sorry to hear you are feeling scunnered @anon

      Just remember that only 6 months ago the SNP overwhelmingly one the GE in Scotland, and since polling for indy has been consistently hovering around 50%. The truth is that the indy movement has never been stronger.

      Add to that there is new arguments to persuade people to indy every day (e.g. comparing how Ireland and UK governments have responded to pandemic, where Scotland has had one hand tied behind its back)

      Stay strong and keep the heid

      Delete
  14. Another reader of the soon to be ex Wings blog
    Gloom is easy to punt and Campbell has been doing his best to punt it because he's a miserable bitter wee man
    Don't believe anything that guy says and stay the right course, it's working

    ReplyDelete
  15. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 28, 2020 at 12:49 AM

    Every day during the Salmond trial the BBC stated what the complainers said in court as if every word was proven fact. They then proceeded to hardly broadcast any of the defence comments. Impartial my arse.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They did indeed. As did every single one of our fearless and unbiased journalists. There are still people spreading the lie about women being banned from working alone with the former FM.
      This despite the only prosecution witness denying such a rule, guideline, note, suggestion or whispered advice ever existed.

      Until the girls and their leader are all on trial there will be no justice and no hope of Scotland being a functional democracy.

      Delete
  16. With the credibility of Westminister being tested by the pandemic and with the fallout from a no deal Brexit now is very much the time for a poll on Indy. The question should be asked if people support the 2021 election being brought forward to 2020 and whether it should be a plebiscite for Indy.

    ReplyDelete
  17. A no deal brexit is the way to go. It could bring down the Brussels wasters. At least there will be no more Brit MEPS milking the cow.

    ReplyDelete
  18. James, I think the idea has merit ... and with the "gong-show" antics of the Tory Government over the previous weeks, what is the mind set of the "unsure but willing to be persuaded" voter ?.... could we be at the tipping point ? ... would be interesting to find out and I'm in with a donation.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Is there any comparative historic polling from 2007-2011 on % people who wanted an indyref?

    Would be an interesting comparison to show how far we've come.

    There's also maybe a caveat that should be shared on the % wanting an indyref this time around, there might be 'thinking' yoons who see if we have another indyref soon and they're cocky enough to expect they'll win then that will be the issue dead and buried for ever

    ReplyDelete
  20. With regards the BBC. All Johnson has to say is the magic incantation 'Scrap the license fee and make the BBC self funded' and they will immediately fawn all over him. They don't want to lose our contributions to their revenue hence the constant attacks on the SNP and independence in general.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the bbc licence fee doesnt go to the bbc, it is a tax which goes to the government. the gov then gives the bbc a grant. many countries dont have a state/public broadcaster but still have a licence fee. getting rid of the bbc, would save the gov a fortune and the bbc could still exist and become even more pro tory but without the current criticisms

      Delete
    2. Really? A quick Google of "how is the BBC funded" seems to suggest that it all goes to them.

      Delete
    3. The BBC doesn't collect your money. It all goes to the london government which gives them an allowance based on the amount collected but topped up from your taxes due to the massive campaign of non-payment.

      Delete
    4. I stand corrected:

      Section 365 of the Communications Act 2003 (opens in a new window) requires the BBC to pay all licence fee revenue it collects (via TV Licensing), less any sums required for making refunds, into the Government’s Consolidated Fund. TV Licensing doesn’t retain any of the licence fee revenue it collects; all monies are passed to the Government, and then the revenue collected is passed back to the BBC as Grant-in-Aid from the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (opens in a new window).

      Delete
  21. James, I willingly contributed to your last crowdfunder as at the time you had correctly noted that there had not been an opinion poll on independence in a while. In the end there were three polls including your's which came out in late January and in my view boosted the campaign. However this time I feel, with respect to ordering a new poll, the political situation is still pretty murky and I am not sure if a poll is really worth it. It is the long term vision that is more important than perhaps a possible boost because of the Cummings effect which may not accurately reflect where soft No Scots are right now. I am sure many are angry right now the events of recent days, but will they come over to yes and stay there? It is better in my view to wait until later on this year and to win them over with positive arguments about the benefits of independence rather than relying on a snapshot poll based on one off events.

    I find your analysis very insightful and intelligent.

    Ashley Watson

    ReplyDelete
  22. Yes, an 'independence' poll is well overdue. Happy to contribute

    Noticed that the data tables in the Scottish sub-sample show 2% for 'another party'. Given that the fringe left wing parties have negligible support, is that the Independence for Scotland Party starting to show? Just a thought

    ReplyDelete