Saturday, May 30, 2020

Leading SAGE members make clear that the UK government have ceased to "follow the science", and are making a political choice to accept a large number of avoidable deaths

Yesterday was a depressing day, albeit one of much-needed clarity: two leading members of SAGE finally laid to rest any pretence that the UK government are "following the science".  Professor John Edmunds and Jeremy Farrar explained that the estimated 8000 new cases of the virus in the UK every day is extremely high compared to other countries, and too high to safely lift the lockdown.  Edmunds made clear that the fact that the English lockdown was being lifted anyway meant that the government had made a political decision to tolerate a high level of ongoing infection, and perhaps dozens of deaths per day on an indefinite basis.  That is a prospect that virtually no other country faces.  It hopefully goes without saying that Nicola Sturgeon's government must use the partial powers they have to prevent a Tory-authored English tragedy from becoming a UK-wide tragedy.

We sometimes talk as if there's a binary choice between letting the virus rip, and suppressing it.  But the prospect Edmunds was raising was of the R number persistently hovering at around 1 due to the halfway house measures the UK government have in mind.  An R of 1 isn't a disaster in itself as long as you start with a low absolute number of cases - for instance, with 10 cases a day and a steady infection rate, you'd have fewer than 4000 more cases at the end of a year.  But with the current estimate of 8000 cases a day, you'd end up with another 3 million infections after a year - that's getting on for 5% of the population.  If the objective is to prioritise the economy, it's completely counter-productive, because people aren't going to engage in normal economic activities until they feel relatively safe.  There won't be any feeling of safety for as long as there's a degree of contagion out there that ensures everyone will know people who are getting sick and dying.

Someone emailed me about a week ago to express deep concerns about an article that was prominently featured on the BBC news website, effectively encouraging people to go out and accept a calculated risk of catching the virus.  It tried to downplay the risks on two counts - firstly by suggesting that you're unlikely to become infected, and secondly by suggesting that it won't be such a big deal even if you are infected.  The latter claim is absolutely jaw-dropping - it's as if time has stood still since February and that the BBC are still, even now, trying to gaslight us into believing that this is a "mild" infection.  Several dubious comparisons were made with other 'acceptable' risks that we face in our lives on a daily basis.  Unsurprisingly, the article was written by Nick Triggle, who for whatever reason has been given licence by the BBC to pursue a none-too-subtle agenda throughout this crisis.  He's been eagerly trying to convince us (inaccurately, as it happens) that the victims of the virus "would have died anyway".  The reality is that the average 60 year old with an underlying health condition can expect to have a decent lifespan ahead of them as long as they can avoid catching a deadly virus.

The person who contacted me made a couple of points - 

"1. 'Only one person in 400 is infectious.' Yes, infectious on one day. But over the course of a year, how many are infectious? 100 out of 400? Which makes it almost certain that we will come across one of them.

2. Notice that the article formulates risk entirely in terms of risk of death. What about risk of long-term health problems after surviving covid, or risk of awful death of someone close to you with little opportunity to say goodbye, etc."

To which I'd add the ludicrousness of the article suggesting that there are certain age groups who can 'safely' accept the risk of infection.  There is no such thing as a safe infection unless you can literally keep the generations totally segregated - and you can't.

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25 comments:

  1. I watched with dropped jaw a scientific member of the SAGE committee on Sky news clearly state that what Johnson was doing right now was not advised by them and what Johnson is doing is purely political and tens of thousands of unrecorded deaths have already happened right across England and he expects many thousands more

    Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland are not mentioned because apparently those three countries are doing OK

    These scientists characters will be blackened and they'll be dumped, let's hope the scientific community stick together behind these guys

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  2. These times are horrible, but it's just so lucid how poisonous the UK is as a state.

    I think the FM has acted responsibly and as proactively as she could (with no economic powers we could never properly lockdown early), but our continuing participation in the UK is undermining clear public health messaging because the Tories inept presentation and planning.

    Oh god, this is almost turning into a full blown rant...

    So I'll close with a hope that the extra few weeks patience we've endured to drive down infection numbers a bit further, and a test & protect system that is led by the public health professionals in the PUBLIC SECTOR pays off and the number of deaths keep falling. If that happens, and trends down south don't keep in line then hopefully public opinion will show stronger differentiation/action is needed to protect us all.

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  3. All must be sacrificed on the altar of the great god Noedeelbreckzit. The high priest Domusviros is above the laws of mere humans as he travels the land to ensure the second wave of human sacrifice. King Bozo of the Forked Tongue ritually prostrates himself to smooth the path of Domus the death bringer.

    If they all dressed up in stripy table cloths and wore pointy hats it would make a Hammer movie. But Vincent Price beat them to it with 'The Masque of the Red Death'.

    Apologies for this - it's been a long lock down and our pound shop Trump equivalent is beyond vile on this one.

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    1. You have hit the nail right on the head there.

      It's all about getting that Dirty Deed done, and to hell with the consequences. (Not least for the poor suckers who thought this was going to "liberate" them and not the international money-launderers.)

      Which is why DomCom isn't getting sacked right now, even if he were (to paraphrase Trump) to drive over somebody on the street in Castle Barnard.

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  4. They are just trying to manage the gene pool, it's what the elite do - https://youtu.be/OWwxiiuIv_A

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  5. I suspect the elite behind (amongst?!) the current bunch at Westminster believe they have already achieved herd immunity in their own 'pedigree herd'. They don't care about the welfare of the 'national herd'. On HIGNFY last night Ian Hislop went through the members of the Govt who may already have been infected. Made me wonder if Cummings went to Durham to 'immunise' the younger members of his family!

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  6. England have just declared themselves Independent from the rest of the UK
    Gavin Williamson has just announced freedom of movement for University students in England is over as he prepares to place a cap on the amount of students wishing to study at Universities outside England
    Thus denying legitimate revenue streams to the three other countries in the UK

    If the English government can do that with impunity then they can put a cap on any business or trade with the other three countries of this Union

    This is a political decision of the type used on Ireland to starve them of revenue

    Ireland is an Independent country now

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    1. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/30/england-to-limit-students-going-to-wales-scotland-and-n-ireland

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    2. Thanks.
      How will they police that? Refuse them loans?

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    3. Refusing them loans is the only way they can do that. They can't physically stop them from studying in Scotland/ Wales/ NI. Basically what they'll do is - they'll treat Scotland/ Wales/ NI as foreign countries bar that selected number that will get loans. There'll be no foreign students next year and they bring loads of revenue to English universities, so they'll try to keep as many English ones as possible in England. There'll be quite a few questions how lawful this actually is, but then it's just another proof that there is no UKGov, but just an English nationalist government in Westminster who hide themselves behind the Union Jack. It'll be interesting to follow what the Tory reaction in Scotland's going to be to this.

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  7. They're not very bright over at that Wings website they still seem to think that ridding themselves of the current really popular FM and replacing her with the former unpopular FM who lost a referendum is a great idea

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    1. Or an MP who's driven by the belief that they'd be a good FM therefore deserve it

      Of course David Cameron and Boris Johnson were driven to their personal belief that they'd be 'good at it' and that's worked out fine, right?

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    2. Nicola Sturgeon by her commitment and daily performance is boosting Scotland's national confidence and our likelihood of winning the next Indyref.
      Salmond, admittedly with the benefit of hindsight didn't have the foreplanning in place to overcome the onslaught from London.
      Anybody wanting to replace Sturgeon right now must live in some deluded bubble within a blister within a bubble.

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    3. Yer heid is up yer erse pal. It was nat si policy to chuck old folk out of hospitals like sacrificial lambs to the slaughter. Are you part of the propaganda cover up. It will not wash and the relatives will not forget.

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    4. Hospitals are where you find the highest rates of covid infection per capita. If you wanted an elderly person to catch covid and die at the peak of the outbreak, then a hospital is where you'd have sent them.

      This is why the NHS made the PPE appeal and we clapped for them.

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    5. Care Homes is where they died. You should know you are the Grim Reeper the counter of the dead.

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  8. Removal of freedom of choice for English students who depend on student loans resulting in the denying of revenue to Scotlands universities in one fell swoop

    This is facist and deliberately politically provocative

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  9. Professor John Edmunds appeared in the Channel 4 documentary "Coronavirus special: Are we doing enough?" broadcast on 13th March.

    If he is now worried, then we should also be worried, in that interview he came across as a big fan of "herd immunity" you can see that particular clip here.

    https://twitter.com/Shamils18/status/1266422700110745600

    "The only way to stop this epidemic, is indeed, to achieve herd immunity"

    The full program is available on Youtube.

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    1. Yes, I remember that, his position has evolved quite a bit, much more than (for example) Neil Ferguson's. He was adamant in early to mid March that the only options were total elimination of the virus or herd immunity, and as elimination was no longer possible it had to be herd immunity. I presume at some point the penny dropped that this virus does not behave like flu and is potentially more controllable.

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    2. He also has the evidence from other countries that the number of people who have immunity, ca 5% or so, is low despite, in some cases, a high death rate. Therefore to achieve the 60% or above required for 'herd immunity' would result in an unacceptable number of deaths. It would also result in a high percentage of the 'recovered' population having chronic health conditions due to the viral infection.

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    3. This is the full interview and it's pretty damning based on what we know now. It's not surprising then that Professor Edmunds has changed his mind and done a 180 degree turn.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBtfbzKslcg

      It's 13 minutes long but well worth a watch to see how government scientists were thinking back then despite the government now denying the "herd immunity" was ever part of their strategy.

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  10. There could be a potentially serious problem with having a private sector company operating the track and trace system; Success in defeating the virus puts that part of the business out of business.
    Prolonging the crisis makes for a consistant 'customer base' and maximises profit. From what I've heard of Serco, profits come first.

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