Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Lessons of the first post-Corbyn YouGov poll?

Having said in the previous post that polling during this crisis has suggested the SNP are sweeping all before them, I might need to put a slight caveat on that.  YouGov have published their first GB-wide voting intention poll since Keir Starmer became Labour leader, and this is the result from the Scottish subsample -

SNP 41%, Conservatives 27%, Labour 21%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 4%, Brexit Party 1%

That's a very healthy SNP lead, which if translated into a Westminster election result would produce a fourth successive SNP landslide in terms of seats.  But 41% is a touch on the low side for the SNP by the standards of many recent subsamples, and - perhaps more to the point - 21% is very much on the high side for Labour in Scotland.  Now, of course, although YouGov is the only firm that seems to structure and weight its Scottish subsamples correctly, there's still an enormous margin of error on any individual subsample, so we don't need to take these figures too seriously until and unless they're replicated a few times.  But the boost for Labour is in line with the GB-wide result, which shows Starmer's party on 32% - still very, very poor indeed, but nevertheless higher than in any YouGov poll since the general election.  The increase has essentially come at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, who are on 5% and seem to be in danger of slipping into total irrelevance now that Labour is back in the hands of the centre-left.

So it's not totally implausible that the Scottish subsample is broadly right and that a small percentage of voters have drifted from the SNP to Labour now that Starmer is leader.  However, even if that's right (a very big "if", I must stress), there's a good reason for thinking it may not be a cause for concern at this stage.  The next electoral test in Scotland is the Holyrood vote, and Starmer will only be playing a supporting role in the Labour campaign.  In the leaders' debates Nicola Sturgeon will be up against Richard Leonard.  I must admit Leonard wasn't quite as bad as I expected in the debates last year, but when people are weighing up who they want to be First Minister, a choice between Sturgeon and Leonard is a no-brainer.  So I'm not sure Starmer's election has really changed anything as far as the 2021 election is concerned.  The 2024 Westminster election may be a slightly different matter, but that's a long way off, and Plan A still ought to be that Scotland will have voted to become an independent country by then.

*  *  *
































37 comments:

  1. Constantine MudgeApril 21, 2020 at 1:53 PM

    Little did one imagine but some few weeks hence as the ice-winds swept off the Baltic ("oh, blast, blast, thou east wind") that one would find oneself still enjoying the hospitality of the winter estate of Countess von Immenhorst-Szechényi on the bleak yet poignant coast of Vorpommern. Although one relishes the princely repasts of the Countess's chef de cuisine, one longs for the stimulation that can only be gained at the Festspielhaus at Baden Baden which one had anticipated for so long a time ("the patina of lost glory, the sheen of lost wealth").

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Roddy Collarless-ShirtApril 21, 2020 at 2:29 PM

      I cannot help but ask, given that you find yourself so fortuitously placed, whether you might avail yourself of a trip to the land of Strindberg. The freely associative nature of that country might provide the opportunity to ingest much needed cultural aliment, rather than the wretched rations on which Men Of Feeling are currently required to subsist.

      Delete
  2. Centre-"left"? Tories are right, new labour are centre-right

    ReplyDelete
  3. Is this also the first since the Salmond trial? I ask as it may be that some are disenchanted with the SNP as an entity as opposed to independence

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nope, there have been many polls since then, and generally the Scottish subsamples have shown the SNP doing exceptionally well. The only significance of this one is that it's the first YouGov poll since Starmer's election.

      Delete
    2. As I recall the first subsample after the Alex Salmond Not Guilty verdict put the SNP at 51%.

      Delete
  4. The Labour anti-semitism report, and the Left / Right schism within the party, haven't really hit the larger public. There's a lot of material in there for other parties to use when Labour get uppity.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Starmer has totally failed to make any impact so far, and appears to have surrounded himself with the people who worked for Labour to lose. Not impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Labour have a historical habit of self inflicted wounds. Stammer is following this tradition. The left hatred of Jews is similar to the Scottish Nat si hatred of the English although they have a similar hatred of Jews.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only surpassed it seems, by the British hatred of the Scots.

      Delete
    2. The Scots are British yourself excepted as you are an Irish Frog.

      Delete
    3. Moira and Nyowkie GrantApril 22, 2020 at 12:02 AM

      Only if there's three of them there.

      Delete
  7. The Brits used to call the Irish British till they became Irish again so not long for the Scots to be Scots and the Brits to invent another nationality for themselves
    I wonder what they'll call themselves, it won't be English because they've embarrassed the shit out of that Nationality, maybe it'll be the *Britglish* Queendom of Brexitania

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Irish Republic have always been benefit seekers from the British. Sending their surplus birth rate to the UK for work. The Republic would be a failed state without help from the British and USA. And yet they moan like the Jock Nat sis.

      Delete
    2. Covidia's latest hate-filled rant from the sobbing cupboard, everyone.

      Delete
    3. GWC hates himself and his people because he's not English and will never be accepted. British means English for the English, but for them, Scots are not British nor English. They're Scots. The migration issue highlights this.

      Scotland is nearly 10% English. They're all over the place. On every corner. But nobody complains. They're welcomed, and the Scottish media make nothing of it. No stories of the English leaving their godforsaken country and taking the high road to Scotland in search of a better life. No 'coming here taking 1 in 10 Scots jobs and putting pressure on the NHS!'...

      Yet England is only 1% Scots. 1/10. Nothing. Scots are like needles in a haystack. But apparently we're the people that flock to another country to take their jobs.

      Same for the Irish. There are well over double the number of English migrants on the Emerald Isle per capita than Irish in England, yet it's Irish migrants that that are the problem?

      And Wales? Epic mass migration of English. 20% of the population are English. A massive flood across the border. But it's Wales that's shit and the Welsh who go to England for work?

      Why are the groups treated differently...could it be....simple racism?

      So much for better together eh.

      Delete
    4. GWC goes to great lengths to stupidly prove that Scottish people are not British and it's only the English who are and doesn't even realise he's doing it

      That's what we've all been saying kid, thanks for that endorsement

      Delete
    5. Covidia takes its lead on here from its British nationalist Tory overlords.
      That's why it's as bitter and hate-filled as it is clueless.

      Delete
  8. GWC. A few weeks ago you disappeared for while. It was very nice thank you. Couldn't you just crawl back under your slimy stone please and let everyone else get on with it ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Covidia is practicing social distancing.
      It's some distance from ever being social.

      Delete
    2. I did not disappear I was deleted by the Nat si regime.

      Delete
    3. Alt clitoris. Crawl up yer own fanny.

      Delete
    4. I think Covidia's been crying again.

      Delete
  9. Far too early, we need to see the trend over a period of time. There could be sampling variations in some polls.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Presumably this guy is arguing N. Ireland should follow Ireland's plan?

    Or Gibraltar should have the same plan as Spain?

    Germany an identical plan to Denmark?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-52381486

    Different plans are 'impossible to implement' if you ignore the presence of a very real border. If you recognise the border and base plans on it, the impossibility vanishes.

    It's unionism that's asking the impossible, i.e. to have identical plans in two different countries with different laws, health services, police etc. Holyrood doesn't make strategy for Northumbria, only for Scotland.

    Cross border cooperation is good, but borders are real things. We need them to break down land into administrative units. Even with one world government we'd had some sort of local level 'state' borders such as occur in federations.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anon: Take your mindless abuse elsewhere. My patience is quite literally at an end. Your comments will be deleted on sight.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Like I was saying the other day. This is how it spread from London - the wuhan of Britain - ahead of lockdown. Still happening.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52055456

    Coronavirus: Ban second home use, doctors tell FM

    Senior doctors from across Wales have written to the first minister calling on him to make using second homes illegal during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought the doctors would be busy. What is wrong with living in a second home provided the owners keep their distance from others. I am sure tens of thousands of English are travelling to Scotland to their second homes in Scotland to keep local businesses afloat on this St George's, Day.

      Delete
    2. It's not possible to show more disrespect for a country than to travel to it from a badly infected one against the request of its government/people in the middle of an epidemic.

      Delete
    3. Oh, but it is.
      Covidia does it every day on behalf of its Tory overlords.

      Delete
    4. The UK is a country ya dobbers. And you Skier claim to be Irish, well the Stena boat is still in service. Go home Paddy plenty of spuds available in gods country.

      Delete
    5. The racist cringe is strong in this one.

      Delete
  13. Skier we were wan country, the EU and now you do not want them tae travel. Typical Irish who take and do not give. Abandon your fellow EU citizens who have funded Ireland.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Sinn Fein IRA are different from the Covid 19 virus. The Virus kills. Sinn Fein IRA like to torture and run drug and protection rackets then kill. And some Catholics in Ireland vote for Sinn Fein IRA. Makes the virus respectable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Covidia will never let something as minor as a global pandemic intrude on its pathetic screams of entrenched hatred.

      Delete
  15. The UK is a country? are you mental? GWC
    Don't you know what the letters UK mean?
    Your own nut case Unionists even refer to it as *our precious union* or our *four great nations*
    So who's right GWC
    One minute we're four Nations, the next minute we're one nation
    You people are the most uneducated bunch of lting toerags on the planet, and what's worse you're bad at it because you're so bloody stupid
    You either went to posh schools where qualifications are handed out like sweeties because you're rich, or if you're the poor common lot you all dogged school and left at fourteen having learned nothing inbetween bouts of marching up and down for the Orange Lodge hating other folk for their religion or their colour while celebrating killing people

    Your leader Boris Johnson calls you vermin and somehow you don't think that applies to you, just everybody who's not you because as long as you think you worship the same God as him you're fine
    You're not fine, they despise you because they can't tell the difference between anybody who's not them, just like you can't tell the difference between Tories and Labour because they're both the same you enormous ignorant idiot, they all think you're vermin because you live in Scotland and they own your little Orange arse like a wee field slave

    ReplyDelete