Saturday, April 11, 2020

BBC make 'Herculean effort' to conceal the scale of the catastrophe from the public

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  1. The UK media response to all of this is really concerning. You realise that you don't live in a functioning democracy anymore. Everything that could have gone wrong with the UK government coronavirus response has gone wrong and there is no-one to tell the public that. Even Guardian's started going with Hooray PM's walking again type of articles instead of holding the UK government to account. And it didn't have to be like this. We had time to prepare. Italy and Spain didn't. Most of deaths now could have been prevented. UK government response is killing people in the UK. But - they were not really interested when UK government was killing people in Iraq, so I suppose it's not that surprising that they are not really interested when UK government's killing people on the home turf.

    1. Guardian's ceased to "talk truth to power" a long time ago. Saw this this morning, normally don't have time for Cameron but what he says here is spot on:

    2. Ooops, meant Campbell, not Cameron.

    3. Wings Forward UnitApril 11, 2020 at 5:10 PM

      Rev Stu, OK!

    4. So it not the virus that is killing people it is the UK Gov.

    5. The Lord Of 5G TowersApril 11, 2020 at 8:02 PM

      Rev Stu is the new GWC. There is no place for you any more.

  2. It's the same-old, same-old British government approach, so brilliantly espoused by the late General Melchett: "If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through."

  3. The MSM coverage has been shocking.

  4. So what do people think of this study?

    Anyone for a “Oxford Lite” model?

    1. That would be Oxford Ultra-ultra-lite, because if Oxford had been right the infection rate ought to have been several times higher than 15%.

      On the Today programme yesterday, Professor Neil Ferguson referred to that study, and a few other similar small-scale studies elsewhere, and said they were in line with his expectations and that they confirm that there is no vast hidden epidemic of asymptomatic cases.

  5. Factoring in the ONS and NRS data, we broke through the 10000 covid attributed deaths yesterday. (10069 UK, 629 Scotland, 345 Wales & 9003 England). Once the data from ONS and NRS covers upto yesterday I would estimate that the figure upto yesterday to be close to 12000.

    These figures cannot be used as a direct comparison to the figures shown on things like John Hopkins for other countries but highlights the tragic toll in lives lost from the virus.

    1. Has Northern Ireland been jetisoned already?

  6. I death in N. Zealand. Scotland remaining in the UK is killing people. It always has done through unnecessary poverty but it is now doing so via corona virus and the criminal handling of the response to this virus. The media now banging on about Deaths in Scotland and when Boris Johnson goes for a pish. State controlled media - just like in N. Korea. A ruling family that the state controlled media is not allowed to criticise - just like N. Korea.

  7. The ignorance of Covid 19 has been colossal. It ‘didn’t just happen 3 months ago’!!! It has been leaking across the World for many many months in 2019 (clue ‘19’!). What is ultra apparent is that medical practices ‘country-wide = UK’ must be testing ‘viruses’ much more rigorously...and not be trite with ‘it’s just one on several viruses going around’ (and ‘they do not respond to antibiotics, keep warm, drink fluids, rest...’.. )

    I think that there are Thousands who had this last year .. and I’m more and more convinced I did in October through November last year...and any resulting deaths in my opinion have already been swept up in seasonal-flu deaths. Seasonal flu deaths are always high every year anyway.
    Things have simply GOT TO CHANGE!

    1. Denis,

      Could you back up your opinion with some evidence please? I have had a bad cough since around Christmas and always assumed that it must be from 'something else'. Perhaps I was wrong?

    2. Not sure about of parts of the UK, but there was a jump in Influenza A cases in England late 2019

      So whilst many people are reporting suffering from heavy and persistent flu like symptoms around December/Jan (including myself) looks like it was this jump in Flu that was causing them rather than Covid being substantially more widespread during this period than thought.

  8. If the rUK had locked down at the same point on the infection timeline as Scotland, Wales etc, it's highly likely our own death rates would be even lower still.

    Unfortunately, we had an open border with a country being very lax with control, and that resulted established cases of infected people from England bringing it Scotland, and knowingly so. The flood of campervans and infected holiday castle visitors is testament to this.

    Smaller communities are always hit harder by a single infection arriving for obvious reasons. For Scotland, just one extra case is the same as 10 in England per capita. So Charles brought us 10 English infections equivalent.

    And 1 infection can yield 1000 very quickly when 1 infects 3, and 3 creates 9, 27, 81, 243, 729, 2817...

    An open border is not really the problem - and Scotland lacks the ability to close this anyway - but the perception that Scotland is 'the same country' as England, so people had no qualms about travelling to it. I doubt a single campervan owner from Essex fled to France in the same way no Germans fled to Denmark. The news didn't report hoards of Italian campervans flooding across the alps into northern Europe. However, for people in England, going to Scotland to hide out was fine as it's a bit of 'their country'.

    It's another reason why we must take care in looking at Scottish numbers; we've faced an 'international' infection threat other countries have not. We had a surge in international arrivals from a hotspot when everyone else was seeing such travel shut down.

    1. While many countries were enforcing 14 day quarantines from hotspots, Scotland was unable to so that for what's the hotest spot in Europe.

  9. Accumulated Deathtoll.


    7503...8958 (25-Mar...10th-Apr)

    The UK seems to be pulling away from Italy now, as their rate of deaths had been coming down for a while by this stage and the UK one still appears to be increasing (let's hope for better news today - we don't want to see a number over 1000).

    Italy was 2 weeks ahead (although the UK gov said 3 weeks for some reason not backed by the evidence), so the Tory gov and advisers knew this was coming and chose to delay lockdown anyway. They could have lowered the death toll by thousands but they decided not to.

    Of course, as James's points out here, this isn't even on the BBC website. The level of propaganda from the BBC right now is Orwellian.

  10. If one person goes out to enjoy the nice weather in a public space, EVERYONE will do it and we’ll all die!!!

  11. Bear Patrol does not relax its vigilance in times of crisis. A second park verified bear-free.

    1. Did they look in the trees? There be "drop bears" everywhere.

    2. We want to know about 'Bozzie Bear'.


    3. The Lord Of 5G TowersApril 12, 2020 at 10:00 AM

      He's reading Tintin books.

  12. UKDHSC figs of 917 for today don't appear to include Wales, which adds another 36.

    And now care home deaths are being added to the figures "in devolved administrations", but not in England, for some reason.

    1. The daily figures released individually by Eng, Scot, Wales and NI don't always match the daily figure released by DHSC as the cut of times for the 24 hour period do not match.

      As for deaths outside hospitals these are not included in the daily figures for England or the devolved nations.

      These deaths are picked up in the weekly death reports, but there is a lag with these figures. For Scotland these figures go upto 05/04 Ni 03/04 and England & Wales 27/03.

      These figures include all deaths registered that have Covid19 recorded on the death certificate and are included by the date the death was registered.

      So the daily figures are a 'flash estimate' produced quickly so that the health authorities can monitor the deaths, death trends etc. The weekly death reports that are issued will give the accurate figure of deaths recorded with Covid as a contributing factor.

    2. My mistake. The 917 figure does include Wales. Hopefully yesterday's 980 was the top of that curve and it continues to drop. I've maybe misunderstood the DHSC website.

      It says:

      "The figures on deaths relate in almost all cases to patients who have died in hospital and who have tested positive for COVID-19. Slight differences in reporting in devolved administrations may mean that they include a small number of deaths outside hospital. The figures are compiled from validated data provided by NHS England and Improvement, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales and the Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland).

      These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes, except as indicated above."

      I assumed that last line meant the devolved governments were including care home deaths.

    3. Yea, that is interesting. I have looked through the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish pages and all I can see is that the daily figure consists of someone who has tested positive for Covid in the last 28 days and death has been certified by a health trust clinician. So some deaths in care homes could well be picked up in the daily figures, although I would be hesitant to say all are.

      Frustratingly there is no way to find out in Scotland & NI were the deaths are occurring (ie in care homes) as they do not provide that information publicly yet, although may well come in future updates.

  13. Looking at the new cases / day data, there is evidence for a surge about a week after lock-down, i.e. just when you'd expect a new wave triggered by a load of infected international arrivals (campervans, castle owners) from England just before the lock-down.

    I remember my boss had to quarantine for 14 days after returning from near Milan late February where there was a couple of hundred cases. This was already the case in England by early March.

    Yet Scotland's border was freely open until the 23rd March when the general lockdown occurred. So we were quarantining from all hotspots apart from the one where most arrivals were coming from, i.e. England.

    If Scotland had been able to stop / quarantine arrivals from England like was being done for China, Italy etc, our cases could have been more like Norway.

    For me this has been overlooked. Scotland (and Wales) must be one of the only 'countries' which suffered a mass influx from a hotspot in this way.

  14. The daily fatality rate is way higher than a 1000 if Prof Murphy is correct....

  15. Am I right in thinking that the health authorities in England are counting only deaths in hospital directly attributable to Covid19? Are deaths in England in nursing homes and elsewhere out with hospitals still discounted?

    1. England is only counting hospital deaths yes (were the patent has tested positive for covid.) For the other nations all I can find is:
      "the daily figure consists of someone who has tested positive for Covid in the last 28 days and death has been certified by a health trust clinician." So they could be picking some all on none of deaths in care homes etc. As anon commented earlier the DHSC says:
      "Slight differences in reporting in devolved administrations may mean that they include a small number of deaths outside hospital"
      So really need more clarity. One would assume, considering the focus on deaths in care homes, if a devolved nation was counting all deaths in care homes in their daily figures they would be making that clear (as France is) so can assume that not all care home deaths are included.

      We do have some data from the ONS, NRS & PRONI to go on. This data has a lag to it and Covid is mentioned on the death certificate irrespective of if the person has been tested positive or not. But this data is all not the same as well. For England and Wales the figures are produced for the date of death, for Scotland and Northern Ireland its the date of registration. This data is confused

      England (upto 27/03/20) 1568 deaths vs 642 deaths reported in daily figures for same period +642 (69%) increase on daily reported figures
      Wales (upto 27/03/20) 64 deaths vs 38 deaths reported in daily figures for same period +26 (68%) increase on daily reported figures
      Scotland (upto 05/04/20) 354 deaths vs 220 deaths reported in daily figures for same period +134 (61%) increase on daily reported figures
      Northern Ireland (upto 03/04/20) 55 deaths vs 36 deaths reported in daily figures for same period +19 (53%) increase on daily reported figures

      So all UK Nations daily figures are under reporting deaths, this should come as no surprise, the death recording and reporting system is not designed for daily updates of deaths, because its not normally information people want at that sort of speed.

    2. Thanks very much for that detailed response.

    3. No probs. Although 'Goverment covers up true deaths' makes a good headline, the reality is that it would be the worst coverup ever. The Goverment readily admits that the daily numbers are not a record of every death and then produces numbers that show the actual number of deaths once figures are available. Even if it did include the number of deaths in care homes, it would still be under reporting the number of deaths as people die of covid in other places than care homes and hospitals.

    4. A death certificate is issued for everyone who dies irrespective where they die. The registration certificate will include the cause of death including any contributing factors eg Covid-19. The Regisrar General is now compiling and issuing data based on the registration of the numbers dying where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. Therefore this data will include the numbers dying in care homes. Since the death certificate contains the place of death then the information about deaths in care homes can be extracted from the registration.

      People now have 7 days in which to register a death which explains why non-hospital deaths now that they are being collated will reported on a weekly basis.

      Data from death certificates gives some indication of the spread of the disease within the wider community, or specific areas within the community, but it is an indication not an absolute number. The doctor may not list Covid-19 because of uncertainty about whether the person had Covid-19 or the doctor lists Covid-19 when in fact the patient did not have Covid-19.

      The ONS in England is collecting similar data but whether the powers that be in England report it or journalists ask them for it remains to be seen. In Scotland it will be reported on a weekly basis but there may be a lag of more than 7 days because of the time taken to collate the data.

    5. The ONS in England is collecting similar data but whether the powers that be in England report it or journalists ask them for it remains to be seen

      ONS data (for England and Wales both separately & combined) is fully in public domain on ONS website on weekly basis and breaks down Covid deaths to place of death (hospital care home etc) as well as age gender etc. As you say NRS do the same for Scotland with PRONI doing the same for Northern Ireland. NRS & PRONI do not break down Covid data by place of death publicly (as of their latest updates).

  16. Yep .. The Tories are quite sleekit excluding care homes, because it keeps the figures in the hundreds ..

    Not even the BBC could ignore the true figures for England, if care homes were included

  17. On a departing note from Wiki:

    Chief Medical Officer for Scotland Catherine Calderwood described mass testing as a distraction that will not slow down the spread of the virus. She said: "I have been saying and advising the First Minister and the Cabinet Secretary for several weeks now about the distraction that I think the focus on testing may become."

    WHO are we?

  18. The dear leader's miraculous Easter rise from the tomb is the BBC headline this morning rather than the thousands dead due to his 'take it on the chin' plan.

  19. Number of people in hospital with covid in Scotland has fallen for the first time.

    Only 24 new deaths reported today. I'm not sure if this is missing a lot, but the pattern suggests we might have cause for hope that we've peaked.

    We are 27 days since the lockdown started here with the ban on large gatherings, so now is the time we'd be looking for the death rate to start tailing off.


    “People get big ideas. One minute it’s a few sandwiches and a blanket. The next thing you know there’s a marquee, rum babas, a DJ, and a hundred guests. One picnic is all it takes. Just say no “

    Just like the abuse of the generous gift of devolution.

  21. Some more age-related figures to play around with:

    I hadn't twigged that Germany's population is older than the UK's.

  22. Scottish death rate seems to be dropping. Hospital admissions leveled out too.

    1. The fatalities figures today are apparently a bit low due to a lag in weekend reporting. Even with that though, it would take some pretty large correction for the rate not to be at least leveling off. This would tie in with new cases and hospital case doing this.