Friday, November 15, 2019

SNP win election dress rehearsal in Fife

There were three Scottish local by-elections yesterday, and we've had the results of two so far.  The SNP won both - one was technically a hold, the other was technically a gain from the Conservatives, although both were wards in which the SNP topped the popular vote last time.  Unfortunately the percentage changes you may have seen in one or two places on social media (including on Britain Elects) are completely inaccurate - it's amazing how often that happens.  The incorrect figures exaggerated the swing to the SNP, but the real figures are decent enough anyway.

Dunfermline Central by-election result:

SNP 33.2% (+3.4) 
Conservatives 24.8% (+0.7)
Liberal Democrats 22.8% (+15.9) 
Labour 13.5% (-13.1) 
Greens 5.1% (+1.9) 
Libertarians 0.6% (n/a)

Rosyth by-election result:

SNP 42.8% (+6.3) 
Conservatives 24.4% (+2.1) 
Labour 15.2% (-3.1) 
Liberal Democrats 7.9% (+0.5) 
Independent 5.0% 
Greens 4.2% (+1.3) 
Libertarians 0.5% (n/a)

So a small swing from the Tories to the SNP, and a bigger swing (especially in Dunfermline) from Labour to the SNP.  Scarily, the Lib Dems came within two votes of beating the SNP in Dunfermline after lower preferences were redistributed - it's unusual for a party to come so close to overturning a large first preference deficit.  That may tell us something about how hard it's going to be for the SNP to win any of the five seats at the general election where the Lib Dems are their main opponent - ie. the Lib Dems may be able to successfully squeeze the Tory vote.

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I have two more constituency previews in The National - this time Orkney & Shetland and Glasgow North-East.  

49 comments:

  1. Britain Elects reports that a Put Cumbria First candidate got 17.7% in a by-election in that area.
    Time to think about sponsoring a buffer state? (Or at least stockpiling that one for when Unionists start with 'Shetland independence'.)

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  2. The real news in the results declared so far (5 of 8 I think) is how worried Labour should be. They don't appear to be at the races in Scotland, Wales or England.

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  3. Labour are finished up here .. Kapoot!!

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  4. I'm sure Corbyn's flying visit with his tartan scarf on to tell Scots he would be the one deciding if they can run their own country will have done wonders for the Labour vote.

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    1. Corbyn's visit was a PR disaster on a monumental scale.

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  5. SNP have taken Inverness Central as well. Particularly brutal for Labour. They fell from second in 2017, to sixth this time round.

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    1. https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1195313292367028229

      Inverness Central (Highland) By-Election, First Preferences;

      SNP - 1015 (45.2%, +12.3)
      Con - 345 (15.3%, +2.9)
      Ind - 277 (12.3%)
      Lib Dem - 237 (10.5%, +6.0)
      Green - 220 (9.8%, +3.7)
      Labour - 154 (6.9%, -10.0)

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  6. 45% SNP in Inverness. Drew Hendry checking out easyjet prices for January already I guess.

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    1. Do not miss that the Greens also received almost 10% as well. Strong majority Independence vote seems to be turning out.

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  7. James - Looking at these three results the biggest winners are SNP (share of vote and % increase). Any thoughts on whether the Westminster VI of 40% / 42% might be a tad low based on this?

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  8. Dunfermline has a local government history of Liberal/SDP Alliance then LD councillors in the past. SNP wins were the exception then.

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  9. Only fly in the ointment with these 3 results is that the Tory vote appears to be holding up.The Ultra unionists are rallying to the Tory flag .As long they fall back by a couple of points and lose a few seats their 2017 GE success can be labelled a dead cat bounce and that peak Tory peak/ Unionist has passed.

    It makes grim reading for Labours Scottish sub branch .I'm starting to think they will struggle to remain relevant in Scotland .During the dark days the dream of Independence motivated the SNP activist base to keep going despite electoral set back after set back.
    I just don't see the same commitment forthcoming from Labour activists when they regularly poll around 15%

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    1. This is true, although the little increase they've had might simply be due to less popular independents than last time. Also, the turnouts were pretty low which traditionally meant poorer results for the Conservatives.

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  10. Taking these two and Inverness together, the results are pretty much in line with the last national polls we have I would say, also bearing in mind that some of the increase may be down to less votes for independents this time.

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  11. Here is the 4 party share in the Scottish by-elections with change on the 2017 local election 4 party share.

    SNP 43.5 (+3.8)
    CON 25.3 (-0.3)
    LIB 17.2 (+9.1)
    LAB 14.0 (-12.6)

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  12. There are still people in Scotland who don't know that Liberal Democrats are Tories waiting for coalition government with the Tories and if they looked at their voting record would see that Jo Swinson voted Tory more times than Jacob Reese Mogg, and that's his own party

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    1. The Tartan Tories do not know they are Tories.

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  13. What a sad story. All those idiots lining up to vote for the Tory party in less than salubrious wards like Rosyth, when Tory cooncillors will do absolutely nothing for them. Quite the opposite in fact. Before you know it they'll be teaming up with slabbers to shut down schools, even more libraries and other community facilities. It's a sad indictment of our education system when people invest in the no surrender mantra at cooncil level, when the council has absolutely zero say in any constitutional matters.

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  14. Here GWC. Ah've foond oot whit it is the EU 'dictates'... Which footie players we can huv!

    https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1194966699621208064

    Verified account

    @SteveBarclay

    Do we want more players in the @PremierLeague from Brazil, Argentina or Africa compared to the EU? Or more English qualified players to strengthen the national team @FA? What would you rather see? The key opportunity of Brexit is that we will get to decide ⚽️

    Thank goad we huv the brexit secretary tae clear this sort ae stuff up fir us.

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  15. GWC's lot getting humped again

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  16. 'We should trade more with our commonwealth Anglosphere mates!'.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50419130

    Australia and others ask for Brexit trade compensation

    Countries including Australia have asked for trade compensation from the UK and the EU over Brexit disruption.

    Fifteen countries, including the US, India and New Zealand, have been setting out Brexit concerns at a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting in Geneva.

    Australian officials said their beef and lamb exporters had already been hit after several Brexit delays.

    Brazil said Brexit plans for Northern Ireland could breach WTO rules.

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    1. Oh, dearie me. So sad when that happens, isn't it.

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  17. Could the first, 2nd, 3rd preference voting patterns be a guide to tactical voting potential?

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  18. Goodness me all those various Tories ahead. Socialism on hold, again.

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    1. As long as your meds aren't on hold Curtis. Leander was very clear that she had to make sure you were mentally stable before tumbling into another man's bed.

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    2. Gone quiet huh Curtis? Don't blame you pal. Especially since your bird Leander has been busy with proper men - pro-indy men.

      She always has a good laugh about your ability - or lack of - Curtis.

      All us men do.

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  19. And what was once the best pro-Independence site on-line, more so with hundreds if not thousands of poor Scottish folks (arses) donating to Mr Campbell's personal account; a man living in Bath, England, not Scotland, has just disappeared right into the ether now. Worst still he has done his utmost to destroy Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. The continuing doltish Independence believers wish lazy, fly Campbell a happy holiday in the midst of the most critical time in Scottish history. Have a break Stu, you need it they say, whilst he continues to twitter away to his hearts content. This guy is not on holiday at all. Someone, somewhere has threatened, forced or bribed him to abandon supporting Independence. Some loyal supporters pointed this out on his site quite some time ago and were then banned. One of the best ever posters on that site was Petra. A woman (or man?) who could see right through him. Robert Peffers has been scunnered off too as has been Nana Smith. All in the name of the Unionist game... money or threats?

    Don't think that you'll be protected by these Unionists Mr Campbell. They hate you and your days are numbered now.

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    1. I think you should get some help. This obsession with Campbell is consuming you. I suspect you are sexually attracted to him deep down or something. I can't see another explanation for you hanging on his every tweet even though you supposedly don't like him.

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    2. You do realise that you are coming over as a tad obsessive don't you?

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    3. "...poor Scottish folks (arses)"

      The Freudian slip gives it away.

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    4. This may be a tad over-egged.

      However, the points that are definitely true are worth examining. It is surely strange that someone who made his name combatting "unionist lies" in the media has gone silent just when he is most needed, just when one of the most concentrated bursts of unionist propaganda and disinformation is filling our media.

      Perhaps the guy needs help. I mean that in a sympathetic way - help in the sense of others stepping up while he takes a break.

      Perhaps the indy movement was always too dependent on that one guy/site so it's maybe not so bad that things are spread more evenly between different sources doing the job he used to do so well.

      If things continue this way that site will be just full of trolls and rebuttals of trolls.

      However I don't think it will come to that.

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    5. This may be a tad over-egged.

      However, the points that are definitely true are worth examining. It is surely strange that someone who made his name combatting "unionist lies" in the media has gone silent just when he is most needed, just when one of the most concentrated bursts of unionist propaganda and disinformation is filling our media.

      Perhaps the guy needs help. I mean that in a sympathetic way - help in the sense of others stepping up while he takes a break.

      Perhaps the indy movement was always too dependent on that one guy/site so it's maybe not so bad that things are spread more evenly between different sources doing the job he used to do so well.

      If things continue this way that site will be just full of trolls and rebuttals of trolls.

      However I don't think it will come to that.

      Delete
  20. Poor GW-Curtis. Utterly humiliated. I don't blame you, since you're also known in most of our friend circles as Curtis the Cuckold.

    Too busy wasting your time on this site to bother if your girl is still attracted to you - which she's not - eh Curtis?

    Poor little GW-Cuckold. We didn't want it to end like this pal. Honest.

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  21. Be interesting to see if new polls show Labour getting a bump post the Broadband announcement. If it doesn't then they really in trouble, if you offer 'free*" stuff and don't get a bump from it then you are in trouble.

    Personally don't think that will make a huge difference, can't see many non Labour voters switching to Labour just to get free* broadband a decade or so down the line. Especially when it comes with nationlistation tied into it, which puts of many voters.


    *nothing is really free

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    1. Agreed on Labour, although I have a suspicion they may continue to climb in polls simply due to the 'This is my only option for paralyzing brexit in some way' vote. Which is basically what happened last time. It wasn't a 'we love Corbyn' surge.

      Nationalization is actually really popular:

      https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/12/labour-economic-policies-are-popular-so-why-arent-

      Less than 20-30% opposed for the main options. Only 'tax dodgers alliance' Tories are opposed to core utilities like electricity, rail, water etc being nationalised.

      Broadband doesn't make as much sense though. Not personal provision / your home package anyway. But then Labour are not really proposing that, but nationalisation of network provision, which actual does have logic to it. The fact that we have multiple mobile networks for example is just plain stupid; 3 masts where only one is needed etc... A government owned network upon which private people/companies can operate is eminently sensible. It is the basis for land transport networks such as roads and rail in most countries. Same model can work for fibre.

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  22. Still no Scottish polls? Are the Scottish newspapers even aware an election has been called? Not sure I've ever seen such a long gap in polls during an election.

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    1. In the two months ahead of the 2017 election, there were 13 full Scottish polls, starting 21st April (election 8th June). 3-4 of these were in month 1, all from different pollsters.

      We've had one poll so far (almost 2, if you include that pre GE announcement panelbase from 11 Oct) and we are now less than a month to go.

      It does tie in with the fascist UK government and opposition saying they will simply cancel the result of future elections in Scotland if folk vote for Scottish / non-English parties. Why bother polling if the result is to be overruled anyway? If Scots can't vote for what they want (e.g. indyref), and their MPs will not be allowed near cabinet due to EVEL, then what does it matter how they vote?

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    2. That is a very bleak outlook. I rather fancied that the media in Scotland are broke and/or suspect the numbers are way too SNP friendly. Labour in particular look like they are in all sorts of trouble.

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    3. I'm quite optimistic the UK will be over very shortly. When the Tories are selling N. Ireland to the EU/Eire for a better trade deal, there can't be long left.

      Still, there should be no let up in reminding Scots voters of the deep racist hatred England has for them, as evidenced by the current plan to remove the right to vote democratically for stuff in Scotland.

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  23. Surprised the Jockos are not falling for the Labour free handout broadband lark. Labour would need to win at least two general elections to get it through the Commons by 2030. It is just a gimmick as the Labour Party want to remain in the EU and the EU would not allow the BT nationalisation as it is anti competition.

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    1. Nationalisation is fine in the EU. Just not state aid to private companies. This is why e.g. Scottish Water is state owned, as is Calmac.

      Or EDF in France for example. Or Albellio, the Dutch state rail company that runs Scottish railways because England privatised them, and Scotland can't undo that unless it's independent.

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    2. Nationalisation is state aid and Scotland does not have to franchise its railway. Scotland actually split the Sleeper from Scot rail. Tory policies from the Nat sis.

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    3. The reason Yes is ahead on average is because you keep lying about stuff like this. Why not try telling the truth for once? It's actually a much more effective way of winning people to your side.

      https://theferret.scot/snp-scotrail-franchise-public-ownership/

      When the tender comes up again, a public sector bid will be possible due to changes as of 2016, but the UK Railways Act 2005 will still prevent re-nationalisation.

      If we get to the point in the future that EU rules prevent nationalised utilities / force privatisation of these, I will vote to leave.

      My indy support is unrelated to EU membership of course; these are completely separate issues.

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    4. As you said above. public ownership of infrastructure is quiet sensible and not even that a left wing principle.

      Monopolies, whether they be public or private are bad, hence why even in the most right wing economies there are rules to stop them happening. The public sector putting in not for profit bids again is no bad thing, as long as they have no advantages over private sector bids in the process.

      Also the public sector running a non profit company alongside private companies in a sector does no harm; people have the choice to use it or not.

      Of course as soon as the Government nationalises sectors wholesale leaving with the end consumer with no choice (as proposed by Labour) creating a monopoly in the sector things tend not to go so well. If you can only get your electricity from British Electric then you have no control over the price you pay. Over time this will probably result in you paying more than you would if there was a market subject to market forces.

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    5. The problem with nationalised industry was over the top management and nepotism. We have this in Scottish Quangos today where the Government tend not to interfere. Front line services are cut at the expense of behind the door management.

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    6. GWC - Glasgow Working Curtis - tell your "girlfriend" Leander I can't wait to see her. And remember, you're our favourite little Cuckold, Curtis. We really respect your sexual inferiority.

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  24. James, have you done any analysis of vote transfers in these 3 by elections? From a quick glance it struck me that a surprising number of Labour and Lib Dem votes transferred to SNP (although virtually no Conservatives did). Are there more such transfers than, say, last year?

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  25. Weel done the fly fifers!
    In my ain local high Street the day was a YES Scotland stall and also an SNP stall. Nae signs o Labour.
    Sign o the times really. Is Christmas coming early this year?

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  26. Tonight's UK polls looking really bad for remainers in England.

    And UK unionists.

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