Monday, November 25, 2019

Are there signs that the Tory lead may be weakening slightly?

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm finding it quite hard to work out what to wish for in this campaign.  I don't want there to be a Tory government, and especially not a majority Tory government, which on the face of it means that I should want the GB-wide Tory lead to start dipping.  But that would mean a Labour recovery, and we know from what happened in 2017 that it's very difficult to keep a Labour surge "quarantined" in England and Wales - it's highly likely to spill over into Scotland, and at the end of the day it's Labour that poses the biggest threat to SNP dominance.  Not only are most SNP seats in former Labour heartlands, there's also the problem that any gain in Labour support is like a "six point swing" in football - it's bound to be partly at the SNP's expense, and therefore erodes the SNP lead much faster than any gains for the Tories.

So far the chances of that happening have looked remote, but today for the first time I'm beginning to wonder.  A new poll in Wales has shown a really significant jump in the Labour vote, way beyond anything that can be explained by random sampling variation.  Something very similar happened just before the 2017 election.

Welsh voting intentions (YouGov):

Labour 38% (+9)
Conservatives 32% (+4)
Plaid Cymru 11% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-3)
Brexit Party 8% (-7)
Greens 1% (-2)

OK, Wales is not the UK, and we haven't seen anything similar in Britain-wide polls yet. But there is a Britain-wide ICM poll today reporting a smaller swing to Labour. Whether that's just margin of error noise, or the start of something more significant, remains to be seen.

Britain-wide voting intentions (ICM):

Conservatives 41% (-1)
Labour 34% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 13% (n/c)
Brexit Party 4% (-1)

(Note: For some reason the SNP are often edited out of the results summaries for GB polls, but on past form with ICM they're probably on around 3%.)

It's just conceivable that a 7-point Tory lead might not be quite enough to win Boris Johnson an outright majority - it depends on the geographical distribution of votes, and on the extent of pro-EU tactical voting.

Would we prefer to have 45 SNP MPs plus a Tory majority government, or 35 SNP MPs with genuine influence over a Corbyn minority government?  I suppose I'd prefer the latter, but if Labour reduce the SNP's haul of seats without actually removing the Tories from office, that would be the worst of all worlds (as we discovered two years ago).

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I have two more constituency previews in today's edition of The National - this time it's Dundee West and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.

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If you know of any independence and/or SNP supporters who might not have registered to vote yet, make sure they know that tomorrow is the deadline.  They can register HERE.

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Click here for a handy list of SNP election crowdfunders.

56 comments:

  1. Fortunately Labour's numbers in Scotland polls are still very poor.
    I would like to see a hung parliament, SNP with 50+ seats holding balance of WM power and complete dominance in Scotland.
    We could dictate terms on everything and it would drive England completely insane.

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  2. It's a tricky one. What use is 45+ SNP MPs if indyref2 is blocked indefinitely? Then again, what use is leverage on Labour, if indyref2 arises against backdrop of lacklustre GE results?

    Most difficult to judge maybe is what would be accepted as a mandate for indyref2, given they keep changing the goalposts. whatever SNP achieved, the likely answer would be it's not good enough.

    Another question is, what could ever turn some of the 'soft nos' to Yes, for example, if Brexit is as bad as people fear, and Scotland seen to suffer from NI benefiting from EU links? Does a tough Brexit need to have happened before turning a sufficient number to Yes?

    Too many questions for now,

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    1. Note the only way a referendum can be blocked is by sending in the jackboots. It seems unionists are hopeful they can just declare voting illegal, and life will peacefully go on. That's just not possible, and never how these things work.

      Voting just isn't ever illegal, and it's not possible to realistically make it so without jackboots. Ask Spain. It had no choice. If it had not sent in the SS to beat up old ladies, Catalonia would be under Catalan control right now, even if that had not been recognized globally. It would still be a reality, and recognition would eventually come if Spain did not take back control with jackboots.

      England could attempt the 'voting is illegal' route, but it will need to send in English SS to enforce that. The courts just won't outlaw voting. Even in Spain the charges are about 'misuse of public funds' because there was no hope of sending folks to jail for allowing people to vote on something. That would have just been open fascism.

      I know I drone on about this, but this is what we face. I personally don't think Britain has the balls for it. They've always run away if the natives actually start fighting back. As all the former colonies.

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    2. If the Tories win they are currently drawing up legislation to create new laws disallowing the use of the courts and legal system to enforce the law over government, in effect declaring England a legal dictatorship
      This is because they anticipate what is coming from Scotland and are attempting to head it off at the pass hence the urgency to divest themselves of the EU before the court cases begin
      They have already informed the UN that they refuse to give up the Chagos Islands even though they have been directed to do so
      It may not be as simple as they hope though as the UK they still are forced to trade with the rest of the world and theirein lies the power and influence of the EU adding to the *persuation* of the UN and Donald Trump won't save Johnson from that, but still a very messy future

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  3. Possibly. We've had a 19 pt lead and a 7 pt lead. Both at the moment are outliers. ICM's last poll was a 10 pt lead in a sea of 12 to 18 point leads and it's poll before was an 8 pt lead in a sea of bigger leads and so on. So ICM have been better for Labour already.

    Welsh polling is very 'swingy' if you look back and it's strong Brexit Party (and UKIP before) support was always much more 'former Labour' in it's makeup.

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    1. Yes, but the assumption has been that the Brexit Party are a sort of gateway drug, and that without Farage to vote for, ex-Labour voters will go to the Tories.

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  4. Could well be that, as with 2017, Welsh voters are not overly happy with Labour and this has been reflected in the polling up to now. But now with the election around the corner they are reverting to 'type'; ie Labour under Corbyn is not what they really want, but its better than Conservative.

    Worth pointing out though that even with this bump in the polls, they are circa 10 points down on what they got in the 2017 election, with Brexit Party looking like they have taken a chunk of their vote.

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    Replies
    1. Would you like to come to the pictures with me to see Downtown Abbey?

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    2. Or we could just go for a drink.

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    3. I'm on a knife-edge waiting for a reply.

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    4. I'll just go on my own. Or I'll ask somebody else who has some manners. Your loss.

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  5. Previous polls, I think, have shown greater support for independence if Johnson is PM of majority government. So...

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    1. So, let's put on the record player and dance till dawn.

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  6. ICM GB poll also asked the following:

    "With a second Scottish independence referendum becoming a key point of debate in the election, ICM this week asked the public if they would allow a second Scottish independence referendum within the next 5 years if they were prime minister.

    The British public is evenly split on this question, with 40% saying that they would allow a second Scottish referendum in the next 5 years if they were PM and 42% saying that they would not allow it. Around one in five people do not know (18%)."

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-general-election-2019-poll-4/

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    1. The numbers are 49% allow vs 46% would not allow for the Scots sample, in what is currently by a country mile the very worst pollster there is for the SNP/Yes (a comically low 31% here, which even deltapoll would blush at).

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    2. That poll also gives a good ideal of the level of anti-Scottish racist hatred in England. Running at about 42% it appears.

      An English PM should obviously have absolutely no say on the matter of Scottish independence. You have to be very racist to believe you should have the right to decide what Scots can and can't have even though you are not from Scotland.

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  7. Rob Ford, the politics prof, is convinced Labour share will increase and polls will narrow, as he reckons Tory voters decide early and stick with their party, whereas undecided voters often end up voting labour, so commit to labour later in the campaign.

    This happened in 2017, plus Jo Swinson's abysmal and shambolic performances thus far, is hardly likely to do a lot for the Lib Dems despite Brexit. I think we may have another one who would benefit from not being in the debates.

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    1. Totally disagree - making a fool of yourself is always preferable to people forgetting you exist.

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    2. Unless you're called Olivia Reid.

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  8. It's been what 14 years since a party last won a large / stable majority in the UK. It would quite a surprise therefore if this actually happened.

    The UK is now massively divided, both across its own internal borders, and within it's largest nation (over brexit). It's now reached such a level of instability, that governments are desperately talking about taking the vote away from people as a means of trying to hold it together. You really are in the last days of Rome when it comes to that.

    I'm really not sure what will happen, but if there's one thing we can conclude with absolute confidence, is that this election will plunge the UK into yet further major constitutional crisis, hastening its break-up.

    I don't see any possible outcome that lifts it out of this neck deep shit and has everyone happy smiley unionist again.

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    1. A good win for the brexiteers is all that is required. Pity it is likely to be the Tories. If only the fascist remainers would have respected the referendum result.

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    2. Is there anything that is actually too stupid for GWC to say? So far, the evidence says no.

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    3. I'm a nut. "Quack quack!!!"

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    4. "A good win for the brexiteers is all that is required."

      For the breakup of the UK yes, beginning with NI staying in the EU via the backstop and spreading from there.

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    5. Thought that outcome would please you.

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  9. "What's for dinner, Andrew?"
    "Fillet of Sturgeon"

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    1. Poor Andrew failed to fillet anything. Good solid performance from the First Minister as usual.

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    2. "What's for pudding, Andrew?"
      "Coronary heart failure and a new toupee."

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    3. I thought Knickerless looked delicious with that slink dress and wee Jimmy hairdo. She has come a long way from Anderston and lanny herspray. Andrew Neil looks like he is wishing for a heart attack.

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    4. Deary Me.

      andrex nell wouldn't know the truth if it ripped his wig off. An army of researchers bellowing questions down his lugs and he is still incapable of asking any kind of sensible question. Too much rumpole mason as a youngster probably. Delusions of adequacy.

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  10. I wish somebody would tell nelly to ram his lies and just point out to him and the rest of the quisling media that Scotland has no deficit. Not now and not ever.
    Maybe gently remind him that Scotland has been a member of the EU since 1973.
    Casually drop in the fact that when Scotland returns to independence then the UK no longer exists and can not continue to be a member of the EU. There will just be Scotland and england (containing wales and ireland) Therefore either both continue membership or neither.

    And nail the spanish lie. No nation of neo-nazi spics has any right to remove my Eu citizenship or my countries membership of the EU. If any country is going to be hoofed out of Europe then it is the franco lovers.

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    1. You will be a TOTALLY British Citizen again very soon so stick your EU crap back up yer chorus. BORIS is the man to get you aff yer knees.

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    2. Boris is the man who'll have you on your knees. Gobble gobble gobble.

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    3. Now go away and look up successor and originator states. The originator state (ie rUK) continues membership of all international organisations, whilst the successor (Scotland has to rejoin). Its pretty basic stuff.

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    4. Who on earth says Rumpuk is the originator state? As far as I'm concerned Scotland is.

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  11. "Good evening Andrew".

    "Good evening First Minister.... what's that?".

    "It's a stopwatch Andy. I'm going to record how long it takes for you to ask me a question and then how long it is after I start to answer before you interrupt".

    [INSERT SOUND OF DEFLATING BALLOON]

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  12. Political discourse is headed down the swanney.

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  13. What about the scenario where Tories are minority propped up by Lib Dems?

    Some sort of soft Brexit but firm no to #indyref2? Not the most fertile ground for indy

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    1. It's not going to matter, the Independence referendum will be next Autumn whoever is in government in Westminster and they know it because they already agreed to it in the Smith Commission document on Scotlands future, it's just all noise and election bravado to gain votes for themselves until the demand (not request) for the transfer of power agreement that they've already agreed to is made, and if the UK of England wants to trade with the EU on an equitable basis then they'll hand it over with their lip tremblin but they'll do it
      In case you didn't know it Devolution only happened because the EU made it a condition of trade and civil rights when the UK joined the EU, it had nothing to do with the Labour or Tory parties, they had to do it or they weren't getting in to the EU
      Does anybody seriously think Nicola Sturgeon's trips to Brussells were for a coffee and a sticky bun with the foreign folk, I'm afraid Yoony folk it's a done deal or the UK of England is in for very difficult trade talks that could go on endlessly if they don't comply, they're already in trouble with the UN and when these organisations get together like they did for Ireland jolly old England will be stuffed so they'll do as they're told

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    2. Folded like deck chair over N. Ireland.

      So much for rule Britannia.

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  14. Seems the truth is out now which we all knew. The EU Empire and the USA were involved in the Coup to destabilise and overthrow the Ukrainian president during 2014. And we now, have the French saying that after brexit they will fish in British territorial waters. Apparantly they like Sturgeon.

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  15. It seems the women of Scotland enjoyed Andrew Neill's style so much that Nicola Sturgeons numbers immediately went up following that debacle
    The Yoons might enjoy this old fashioned shouty bullying style but actual normal people like to hear the answers he kept trying to shout down
    Most folk don't know how TV interviews of this style are set up by the broadcasters sound wise, I do because it was my job for a long time and without going into too much technical jargon on this, the First Minister knows it too, and it's exactly what she expected and she dealt with it in exactly the right way by staying in control and not playing the BBCs game of shouty to be heard because the odds are stacked against any interviewee who tries that because the sound engineers instructions are to lower the microphone volume on the interviewee always below the level of the interviewer
    This is how Andrew Neill's interviews have always been conducted when he goes for hostility

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    1. Are you saying the women of Scotland had time to listen to that tripe when washin the dishes.

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  16. Andrew Neil has always been anti-SNP but sometimes he was capable of a good forensic interview - even with his biased nature. However, for the last decade he has become more into his BBC persona than concerned with the function he is supposed to fulfil - there are many of them in the mainstream these days. Nicola gave her usual solid professional performance and Andrew looked old, fat and grumpy. Indeed, he looked a bit unwell but it might be he is just old, fat and grumpy.

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    1. Knickerless looked like she wanted her communist saviour Kim Yun Eck to arrive.

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    2. I'd like to get my teeth into his private details.

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  17. ''A new poll in Wales has shown a really significant jump in the Labour vote, way beyond anything that can be explained by random sampling variation.''

    Maybe folks south of the border now prefer a Corbyn and SNP ''alliance'' (for a very short time) to a Johnston / Farage?

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  18. Sigh, 50+ seats for the SNP ain't going to happen. I wish folk that ought to know better would try to manage expectations otherwise there will be many disappointed people on December 13. The tories may be aveunpopular but they have succeeded in converting British nationalists into one-issue voters. That issue being "anyone but SNP". It was bound to happen. The tories may be foul but they are not stupid. There are enough Britnats in places to help them hold most of their seats. Let's stop getting carried away with this 50,+ seats delusion.

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    1. You mean some of them aren't stupid. A great many of them don't seem that bright.

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  19. I used to defend Corbyn, arguing he wasn't anti-Semitic.

    Then he started saying he wouldn't grant Jews a Section 30, so taking away their voting rights.

    Then I understood that he is a racist English nationalist just like Johnson.

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  20. Al Johnson in Fife:

    "For the last decade Scotland has been trapped, like a lion in a cage. You have been like some super-green supercar blocked in the traffic. You can see the way ahead. You know where you want to go – and you know why you are stuck."

    Right. So that positive way to go will have been set out by the No campaign and by Ruthie and others since then?

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  21. Spain is highly reliant on Scotland's seafood.
    They'd be paellaless without us.
    Jellied eels juist disnae hack it.
    The Tories don't brag so much now about 200 mile fishing limits or the mythical UK independent coastal state.
    Scotland in the EU will get full backing from Madrid.
    England/UK gives up its veto as it leaves the EU.

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  22. We have to to keep a rein on our expectations: 6/7 seats would be a solid gain, the second best total in a general election. Anything more would be a bonus.

    We have to look at the 56 seats in 2015 as being a freak result. There were a lot who voted SNP then, I reckon, to sooth their consciences for having voted against independence: "I'm still Scottish - don't you folk in London take me for granted!" But they'll switch over to Mummy England when it matters.

    We have to remember that they've always been with us: it's the country's curse. There were Scots on the English side at Bannockburn, because it was in their interest. But bit by bit, through keeping going, we'll put an end to the union. Where we are now was the dream of the independence movement even 20 years ago.

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    1. I wouldn't have dreamt of this position even 9 years ago never mind twenty.2010 election 6 SNP seats was viewed as an ok result

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  23. Nothing much it seems has changed since the Brexit Referendum and it also seems the Fascist Racist anti Scottish Tories will end up with even more seats in Scotland. That is Depressing. I also blame the SNP for that depressing situation. I am going to have to suffer the anti Scottish Douglas 'RED CARD' Ross as my MP again thanks to the anti Scottish white settler vote.

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  24. There is one very obvious piece of evidence that the Tory lead is shrinking. It's called wheeling out the Chief Rabbi.

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