Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Will Jo Swinson's stubbornness on a Corbyn-led government make her the midwife of independence?

What effect would a No Deal Brexit at the end of this month have on the case for independence?  There are two main schools of thought: 1) that people will accept the new status quo as 'the devil they know' and will shy away from any further constitutional upheaval, and 2) that many people who voted No in 2014 and Remain in 2016 will start to look upon independence as a safe harbour in the Brexit storm.  We can only speculate at this stage as to which of those is right, but if by any chance it's the latter, we may end up having Jo Swinson to thank for Scotland becoming an independent country.  Her stubbornness in refusing to compromise on the leadership of a potential interim government doesn't make No Deal a certainty, but it's hard to dispute that it makes No Deal considerably more likely.  As Paul Mason has pointed out, the Lib Dems have perversely become the party of choice for those who think a No Deal Brexit would be preferable to a Corbyn premiership.

Incidentally, Matthew d'Ancona was barking up the wrong tree with his claim the other day that a vote of no confidence would be a trap allowing Boris Johnson to remain in office until a general election that takes place after the date of Brexit.  We've already seen the speed with which emergency legislation can be passed, so if Johnson tried to squat in Downing Street after losing a vote of no confidence, and if the Queen declined to remove him from office, it would be open to parliament to quickly legislate to change the procedure for appointing the Prime Minister - it could become a position elected by the Commons. 

But all of this is academic for as long as the Lib Dems are determined to remain Boris Johnson's Little Helpers.

45 comments:

  1. Well, 'End of the union day' draws ever closer. Just ~4 weeks now. At least this is how kids in School will discuss it in history lessons in the future. 'Which day is recognised as the one where the empire effectively ended kids?'....

    On the 1st November the following happens:
    1. Independence support moves into permanent, comfortable majority as unionist remainers change to indy en-masse while pro-Scexit EFTA (brexit voting) indy supporters now say they are ready for independence
    2. Support for reunification in Ireland does the same (unless it stays effectively in the EU under a full backstop
    3. The SNP mandate for indy (based on brexit occurring) becomes 100% valid
    4. The EU/EFTA can start openly negotiating with Scotland on membership
    5. The UK economy crashes (how much will depend on deal vs no deal)

    Enjoy the last days of Rome.

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    1. Well that would certainly be fantastic if it happens.

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  2. Two separate points:

    1. How might the Yes-Leave vote be torn? (including the abstain option)

    2. Could MPs record a positive Vote of Confidence in someone before a VONC in Johnson and would there be a technical advantage in doing this?

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. The day after October 31st
    Westminster declares measures to ensure "National Unity" and shuts down Holyrood transferring all powers back to Westminster the army is deployed to "Keep the peace".
    Riots and protests ensue, people are killed many more arrested.
    Who saves us?

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    1. Heh. They don't have enough Army or police. Most will be tied up dealing with civil disorder in NI and England. Indeed, they're calling upon Police Scotland for some 300 reinforcements to send to NI.

      In 2011 when these riots happened, Scotland just sat back and watched with bemusement. We have to be patient and choose our moment to quietly slip off whilst Westminster is drowning under English and Irish chaos.

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    2. Well, the good news is that Alyn ("Please...I beg you!") Smith has found a new constituency home in Stirling. Wonder what ex-MP Stephen Paterson did to get left off the list of candidates? One local SNP councillor has posted a picture of a descending parachutist on her Facebook page.
      So if Alyn doesn't lead us to the chip shop then I'm sure that the European Army (Barcelona Brigade) will intervene.

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    3. Scots will not fight for the ruling class and landowners. Why fight for something you will never own!

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    4. They can't shut down the Scottish parliament. they will have to go to the Supreme Court who will judge the Scottish people are sovereign, as stated in the treaty of union.

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  5. Looks like the English nationalists ware about to betray the N. Irish unionists.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49894100

    The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg said Boris Johnson's plans will see Northern Ireland "in a different relationship with the EU to the rest of the UK".

    She also said the Northern Ireland Assembly would be given powers to shape its future with the bloc.


    Remain parties have a majority in Stormont.

    If N. Ireland has different customs, trade and immigration rules, then the UK is breaking up.

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  6. Stuart Campbell proven wrong once again over his assertions that a section 30 order had been requested when he knew perfectly well it hadn't and was using peoples lack of information on the subject for his own agenda
    So now he mocks it as he does with everything he's found to have been telling lies about

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  7. Jo Swinson really is as thick as mince. She was elected at a time of major promise for a Lib Dem revival, and everything she has done since has reduced their appeal.

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    1. Joao Vowelstrangler no longer has any appeal for me. I have become totally obsessed by the inner thigh of Scottish Skier.

      Cordelia,
      x

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    2. Swinson is not thick at all. She commands a huge salary from the Taxpayer.

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    3. GWC is not thick at all. He commands favour from Sir James.

      It's because he set up a poll in his living-room.

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    4. East Dunbartonshire didn't know who the Lib Dem candidate was until the final week, up till then it was 4 leaflets per day rubbishing Nicola Sturgeon and activists going round the doors being unpleasant about John Nicolson
      The Lib Dems are a nasty nasty bunch of Tories in tweed suits with elbow patches

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    5. Secy of State Alasdair Jack looks like the sort of man who thinks wearing a cravat is casual. I think Jaoh Sweensahn is his lovechild. When she gets a bit older Ms Swoonsehn will start wearing cravats and going to Tory Party "Bingo 'n' Strangle-a-Darkie" nights in Castle Douglas. She could use her cravat to strangle the unwelcome dusky persons.

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    6. Mike Smithson wears a cravat when he's performing her material. He's one of the most influential over-50 Popsters.

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    7. I believe we should cherish our small, select band of radical thinkers.


      Peter A Bell #DissolveTheUnion
      ‏ @BerthanPete
      21h21 hours ago

      I don't do personal thanks for donations at http://www.peterabell.scot . Not because I'm ungrateful, but because it would take up time I feel is better spent eating.

      Delete
  8. Whether Jo Swinson's efforts cause a no-confidence motion in the BoJo regime to fail or such a motion succeeds despite her, she will have ruled herself out of consideration as a caretaker prime minister. At the same time, she will have earned the unending opprobrium of the Remain-voting public and anti-Tory majority, and proven that she and her party are untrustworthy, irresponsible, and incapable of subordinating the interests of the party to the common good.

    Either way, the LibDems' record in opposing Tory regimes is no more stellar than Labour's.

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    1. The Scottish Nat sis are not opposed to Conservative Capitalist policies although they have convinced most of their numpty faithful they do.

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    2. What are you on about. 'Scotland is one of most taxed countries in the galaxy' because of the SNP.

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    3. The Nat sis are scared to tax the rich and allow councils to increase tax. They are Tories.

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    4. What would you know you're on the dole

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    5. I am a retired gentleman and was never on the dole

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    6. GWC is one of the 'Gentlemen of the West'.
      A reviewer posts:
      "Poor working class young man, a brickie, finding it tough to find work in Scotland. He and his mates have few skills and even less ambition. They like their drink, but that's just an integral and unavoidable part of life. He still lives at home with his Ma. They're tough people that don't want to reveal any vulnerable softness, but it leaks out."

      And he is indy-curious.

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  9. Numpty faithful people who are not stupid enough to fall for the same Labour Tory party over and over again expecting a different result, and numpty enough to be the largest party in Scotland and the governing party beating the three Labour Tory Lib Dem single party year after year and heading towards totally wiping them out altogether come the GE

    Now if we're all numpties you must be among the very very few clever lonely people in the whole of Scotland who think you're cleverer than us numpties and you know what they say about people who think like that

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    Replies
    1. Does anyone think it's acceptable for Annunziata Rees Mogg to buy cigarettes for 14 year olds? Seriously.

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    2. The law does not apply to Annunziatta and to the other very wealthy people who consider themselves to be the rulers of England. If they do it, then it is right. If you do it then Ms Priti Patel will ensure that you receive severe punishment and, if you are an immigrant to the UK, your right to reside might be terminated, unless you are Ms Patel, Mr Javid and any others who have been accepted into the ruling clique - except Baroness Warsi, who will soon learn that she should keep her opinions to herself. and her snout in the House of Lords trough,

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  10. Johnny Q GussetdodgerOctober 2, 2019 at 10:24 PM

    Interesting that Liberal MP Jamie Stone confirmed today that the Liberals are now officially a No-Deal-Leave party. Alleged Liberal leader Swinson and MP Stone haven't yet announced when the Liberal Party will formally coalesce with the Conservatives but it is understood that it will happen when Ms Swinson is guaranteed the post of Deputy PM. This will be carried out in
    The National Interest or as Ms Swinson says: "I am in a nation and I'm interested in me."

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    1. She has big tits and is read and seen on page three.

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    2. René Magritte's the best way to goOctober 3, 2019 at 5:29 AM

      Piffle, madam. Jan Swansea has offered a home under her Liberal jumper to a family of squirrels who live there on a protected rent B&B basis. Thank you for caring.

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    3. She also has big teeth.

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  11. Can Scotland stay in the single market for goods? If not, why not? Is it UK government anti-Scottish racism? This what all the Scots I know are now asking.

    And unionists - don't advocate violence as being needed to achieve that.

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  12. I really think that Yes (EU leavers) will come back to vote yes if they had drifted away for 2 reasons
    1) They got their wish to leave the EU
    2) They're still naturally Yes minded and would settle for EFTA/EEA as a halfway house to be connected to the EU without the full membership as Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Lichtenstein do
    This is ok actually as an indy starting point, as access to the EU single market, and still able to negotiate trade and borders with rUK as unlike Ireland who's hands are tied at present in this matter, Scotland wouldn't be a full member yet and would have best of both worlds sitting in the halfway house of Europe

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    1. unionists look at polling and think Jim Sillars is on their side.

      Scexiters don't want indy until after the 31st. Then they're are all ready to vote Yes en masse. This is what they say to pollsters. 'No for tomorrow', but yes after brexit. It's party why Yes is so high (up to 60%) for a post-brexit scenario.

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    2. Brexit going ahead means 'I will vote Yes because I want to remain in the EU' and 'I will vote Yes because I want indy outside the EU' voters all move to yes 'tomorrow' at exactly the same moment.

      It really is the day the union dies.

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    3. So the SNP won't be persisting with the Magic Bullet Train to Brussels idea then?

      (As opposed to an iScotland EU Ref at a future date?)

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    4. Lol, you don’t get it do you. Scexiters are not brexiters. They’re 100% Scottish, not British.

      People who support independence from the EU and from the UK are the hardest of hardcore Scottish independence supporters. They support independence max.

      They voted Yes in 2014 and they will never not vote for independence. They hate the UK.

      However, if Yougov ask them ‘would you vote for independence now, i.e. before brexit?’, they say ‘No’. If the pollster ask ‘How about when brexit happens?’ they say ‘Yes’.

      Sure an indy Scotland might well end up in the EU, but being independent from the UK is the priority for these people as it’s the most controlling union. If they can kill two birds with one stone by iref2 being post-brexit though, they’ll go for it.

      The union is relying on Jim Sillars to save it.

      This group has presented a problem for the SNP. But this problem only persists as long as brexit hasn't happened.

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    5. Scexiters are British at this point in history.

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    6. England could demand tariffs from Scotland for use of the road network.

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    7. It's not possible to demand that of 'Scotland', only for private companies who are operating in England. If Scotland didn't charge them like this, they'd likely move operations to Scotland to reduce costs.

      And of course England could charge British/English visitors (most Scots never go to England; they've no reason to).

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    8. As I'm a Yes-Leaver I think I do get it. You are right that I would make ending the UK the No. 1 priority.
      Where you are wrong is in taking people for granted. I was one nationalist who abstained in the 2019 EU vote. You might also consider why someone like Rev David Robertson (who fronted the nationalist Leave campaign with Jim Sillars) is now uncertain about how he'd vote in IndyRef2 and why ex-Depute Leader Jim Fairlie has yet to rejoin the SNP.
      People do tend to remember if they feel they've been snubbed or frozen out and one of the things that I'd mark Nicola Sturgeon (& Co.) down for is failing to reach out to the missing 500,000 after 2017. They look at these things, especially if they're not part of the M77 / M8 Corridor, and ask what it means about how an independent Scotland might be run. (I'd also say that there's the issue of the intensity of support and the adoption of “Independence in Europe” may have been causing traditional nationalists to cool off by the time of IndyRef1, hence the failure of Yes in all council areas north of Dundee and west of Dunbarton as well as in the south-west.)
      I've got the feeling that Alex Salmond might have provided a bit of swift political footwork on this issue, despite his portly frame. In the meantime I'd request you and your fellow SNPers to stop drinking to “The Commissioners Over The Water” (which you've so far avoided stating that you'll do). This process could drag on for years so it's best that we talk about maximising control in Scotland (while thinking about different possibilities for alliances with those countries who share similar characteristics and interests) and turn our guns on the crumbling walls of the British state.

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    9. I'm not taking anyone for granted. I'm simply saying what I see in the polls. Also what I know from having encountered some yes leavers.

      I'm actually fine with an indy Scotland in the EEA like Norway, so I'm partly a Yes leaver myself. I think the SNP are right to focus on Scotland being in the single market at least post-indy as that's what folk in Scotland want and keep voting for.

      The most important thing to me about the EU/EEA is freedom of movement, which I think is the most wonderful thing. I'd love a world with global free movement, but I recognise that's not possible unless we all follow the same rules of trade, democracy etc. Hence the need for EEA type bloc rules which facilitate it.

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  13. Why can't Scotland stay in the single market for goods with an open border with the EU? Is this anti-Scottish racism by England?

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