Thursday, July 25, 2019

Are we heading for an October election?

I'm actually quite ambivalent about the prospect of an election this autumn.  At the moment it looks like the SNP would clean up big time, but conditions also looked exceptionally favourable for them in 2017 and we all know what happened next.  We should always remember that Westminster elections are 'away fixtures' for the SNP and that things can spiral out of control very quickly.  Imagine, for example, if the broadcasters try to stitch up the SNP with three-way Johnson-Corbyn-Swinson debates, or even four-way Johnson-Corbyn-Swinson-Farage debates.  That would be impossible to justify given the SNP's total dominance of politics in one of the four constituent nations of the UK, but just suppose they were brazen enough to actually do it.  The election campaign would become a London-centred conversation in which it would be very hard for the SNP to be heard.  That's exactly what happened in 2010 - three-way debates between Brown, Cameron and Clegg produced the Cleggasm, which changed the trajectory of the campaign in Scotland as much as anywhere else.  It wasn't Alex Salmond's fault that he didn't do what Nick Clegg did, because he simply wasn't given the opportunity.  The playing field was not remotely level, and I'm afraid it's a fact that the BBC, ITV and Sky were to blame for the undermining of the democratic process.  Elections in the UK may be free, but they're not always scrupulously fair.

However, I think we're past the point of trying to work out whether we want an election to happen, because it now looks highly likely that it's going to happen whether we want it or not.  Boris Johnson has set an unmistakable course for No Deal, and we have a parliament with an anti-No Deal majority.  That means, I would suggest, that one of two things is going to happen...

1) MPs will conclude that a vote of no confidence is the only way to prevent No Deal, and will bring the government down in time for an October election.

or

2) MPs will find an alternative means to prevent No Deal, which Boris Johnson will have no option but to preempt by calling an election himself.  (If he doesn't, he'd instantly become a lame duck leader.)  I doubt if the Fixed Term Parliaments Act would prove any more of an obstacle for him than it did for Theresa May two years ago.

In case anyone still thinks it's not even plausible that a vote of no confidence could be passed, it's worth refreshing our memories about what the parliamentary arithmetic actually looks like...

Conservatives + DUP: 322 seats

All other MPs: 320 seats

Even with the DUP's help, the government have a majority of only two seats, which may be reduced to one next week if the Liberal Democrats win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.  On paper, it would require only one Tory MP to vote with the opposition for the majority to be wiped out.  In practice it's not quite as simple as that, because Charlie Elphicke will continue voting with the government even though he's technically no longer a Tory MP, and the odious independent MP Ian Austin (formerly of Labour) may have been bought off with his new job as a trade envoy to Israel.  But it certainly wouldn't take many Tory rebels to bring the government down.  The Lib Dems are now gung-ho for an early election, only a few months after saying that would be "irresponsible" (amazing what a difference an opinion poll surge can make).  I'm not sure what Change UK's current position is, but they must know it would be a PR catastrophe for them to be the only opposition party to prop up a No Deal government.

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As regular readers may be aware, I'm blocked on Twitter by the Glasgow SNP councillor Mhairi Hunter, because - and I quote - "I don't want to be mentioned on his blog".  (That's working out well for her, then.)  However, I gather that she was once again banging the drum yesterday for the idea that there is no route to a vote on independence that doesn't require permission from Westminster.  So what do we do if Westminster says no?  "We campaign some more for an independence referendum" says Mhairi.  And what do we do if Westminster still says no after that?  "We campaign some more for an independence referendum" says Mhairi.

This reminds me of the early 1980s Doctor Who story Full Circle, in which a group of people from the planet Terradon have been stranded for many generations in a crashed spaceship on Alzarius.  They devote their lives to repairing the ship, with the promise from their leaders that if they work hard enough, it will be possible to return home in a few more decades or centuries.  "Towards the embarkation!" is their mantra.  But it turns out at the end of the story that the ship has been in perfect working order for a long time, but that nobody knows how to fly it.  The leaders were just using the pointless 'repairs' to keep the common people busy and to prevent any awkward questions being asked.

It's not 'populism' to say there needs to be a Plan B if Westminster's obstructionism continues.  It's simple, hard-headed pragmatism.  "Campaign even harder for an independence referendum!" is only an honest exhortation if a credible plan exists to bring a vote on independence about.  I made a point along those lines when I was interviewed for Sputnik yesterday - you can listen to the interview HERE.

*  *  *

UPDATE: Apparently it's possible for individual SNP members to express support for discussion at conference of the McEleny/MacNeil amendment (calling for an election to be used to seek an outright mandate for independence if a Section 30 order is refused) by emailing the National Secretary of the party.  I'm not sure what the procedure is - presumably you'd just give your name and possibly your membership number and explain why you're writing?  The email address is:  national.secretary@snp.org

36 comments:

  1. We may now have a No deal Tory/DUP government at the moment but Johnson has now a hostile Tory remain govenment-in-exile on his back benches. Life won't be easy for him.

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  2. Maybe I'm not getting this, but if the ToryDUP lot have 322 seats with the opposition on 320 the loss of a by-election doesn't mean their majority goes down to one.
    It's then 321 each.
    Johnson is so full of his own messianate qualities he's likely to do a Theresa and call an election, where he might win big in England.
    A debacle for the Tories in Scotland however would be the perfect storm for a Scottish breakaway.

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    1. Yup the Conservatives currently have 321 with opposition on 320 and one vacant seat. If the by election goes to an Opposition party then they are tied.

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    2. No, that's not correct. The majority is two, not one, and defeat in the Brecon by-election would only reduce it by one, because the seat is currently vacant (ie. the vacancy is already factored into the current figures).

      There's an argument to be had on a point of pedantry as to whether the Tories and DUP have 321 seats or 322, because technically Bercow did not stand as a Tory in 2017. But to all intents and purposes he still counts as a Tory, because there are two non-voting Labour Deputy Speakers to balance out Bercow and the non-voting Tory Deputy Speaker. So the correct figure is 322 and the numbers in the blogpost are accurate.

      Government: 322
      Opposition: 320

      Majority: 2

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    3. We are leaving the fascist regime young James and others will follow once their fear leaves them.

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  3. I don't think either the Tory rebels or the Labour party have the guts or even a real desire for an election. Both parties stand to lose seats given the current polling levels.

    My money is still on No Deal in October. It's what BoJo and his cabinet want, it's what Corbyn secretly wants, and if an election were to happen by Hallowe'en, Corbyn really should have called a VONC by today, and he didn't.

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  4. PeatWorrier made the argument on twitter that he didn't think it was a very good amendment, having faults. (I couldn't judge the validity of his points but it might be true) I argued all the more reason for it to be debated and improved IF that is the case. That does not justify running from the issue.

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  5. Thanks for the clarification James.
    Johnson is getting an easy press - in England at least, but the arithmetic is against him.
    His decision to appoint a Tory right wing toff to oversee and control Scotland is an act of unpardonable folly.
    The dugs in the street are barking.
    But so is this prime minister.
    Our day is coming. See you all I campbelltown.

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  6. I would like to take up the point about being refused Westminster permission for another independence referendum. Up to now, Theresa May's position, that 'now is not the time' probably had some appeal for undecided voters in Scotland. Clearly, holding an independence referendum at the same time as unresolved Brexit negotiations would be problematic. However, we are now just over 90 days away from leaving the EU ("no ifs or buts...."). In a video clip yesterday, the new Scottish Secretary, Alister Jack took a different line: "the issue was resolved for a lifetime, etc". He sounded incredibly arrogant. My prediction is, that if a Scottish Government request to run a referendum is refused by Westminster, the matter will pretty quickly be taken out of the SNP hands. There will be massive, continuous, peaceful protests aimed at bringing UK government business in Scotland to a halt. The SNP will lose control of the agenda.

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    1. Yep - "repeal the Act of Union" time - no more shilly - shallying and kow-towing to the defunct Empire

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  7. Things preventing brexit = Scotland + N Ireland.

    Boris Johnson's nationalism = English

    Are English nationalists (brexiters) bothered about UK breakup = No

    Is Johnson an populist opportunist? = Yes

    If I were him, I'd pretend to try and save the UK for a few weeks, targeting the backstop in particular. Then I'd say it was all impossible, and that English indy was the only solution.

    The UK is heading for break up long term anyway. It has been on it's empire decline curve for nearly a century now.

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    1. He has a much greater chance of being a 'successful' first pm of England than he has surviving as a pm of Britian. The latter is hopeless for him.

      Also, if England chooses indy at the same time as Scotland does, it's not a humiliation in any way for him. In fact, he'd be the statesman, with the union ending on good terms.

      Might make some sense as to why one nation unionist tories hate him, and why BBC Scotland is pushing the 'scots can Jog on' line increasingly.

      In the end, brexit and the devolved +gfa UK are wholly incompatible. There is no way around this; deal or no deal there is a major constitutional crisis coming.

      A clever English nationalist in no 10 would take advantage.

      Arise Boris, the first PM of an England reborn.

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    2. An excellently optimistic take on things!
      I shall cross all my fingers while the MPs lounge on their beaches.

      The big question that arises in the skier scenario is the same as always ‘who gets the oil?’

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    3. Boris and those around the table are utterly convinced the English are a superior race held back by the subsidy junkies in the celtic fringe. Only freed from the 'piccaninnies with see you jimmy smiles' can the new Jerusalem be built.

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  8. No mandate is is needed for English indy of course; just Westminster vote.

    However he could seek a mandate in a snap GE.

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  9. The few are are greater than the many. If one Scot votes to remain in the UK then it is remain. The stupid Scots who vote to leave will be ignored.

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    1. Can you explain your comment?

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    2. Blah Blah Harrumph, Blah.

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    3. Jupiter plooves and by the Trident of Neptune, I wager Nil Desperandum as I declared to Winston. Ich dien and honi soit qui mal y pense. Could I express mine self the clearer, as I declared to Nelson.

      In Plain English, then: I want money.

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  10. Going back to the Skier Scenario of English independence, how would we fare, realistically if we were prepared to immediately cede oil exploitation rights by means of a preferential licensing system to, say, 50% of Scottish territorial waters? Would that be enough to keep the English troops at home while we argue about Faslane etc?

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    1. It is likely there is lots of oil still to be discovered in English waters.

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    2. Yes, there is a lot of shale to be fracked under the SE of England.

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    3. 50%???
      The extraterritorial area of Scotland has existed on maps for some time. We all know where the line lies (barring Cameron's theft). We have paid handsomely over 50 years. Independence is time to realise 100% of our resource.

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    4. Yeah but climate emergency. Big stage commitment. Good for international recognition? 50% is just a headline. I’m not yet opening negotiations.

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  11. The one nation British unionist Tories have fallen. Brexit has broken them.

    They lost Scotland to the SNP, then N. Ireland to the neutrals, now No. 10 to the English nationalists.

    There is not long left now for the unitary UK.

    'Minister for the Union'. 'Westminster is England's parliament'. 'a new age'.
    Sturgeon and Johnson talks 'positive'.

    I told GWC not to trust BJ and the English nats. I stand by that.

    Opportunists always take the easy route to power. Try to save the union and you will end up Cameron and May, the last British PMs.

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    1. Trust can only be achieved when politicians accept the result of the ballot box.

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    2. http://suffragio.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Boris-of-England.jpg

      His flag is not the same as yours GWC. He's English, not British. The union flag is being lowered, replaced by the cross of St George at no 10.

      Stormont is to sit again ready for the backstop while the talk of reunification begins.

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  12. Aye GWC. The people should be asked.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-nireland/irish-pm-says-hard-brexit-would-raise-issue-of-irish-unification-idUKKCN1UL280

    Irish PM says hard Brexit would raise issue of Irish unification

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    1. Well maybe the Irish PM is prepared to back this by force via the usual various IRA proxies. They will lose again.

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    2. Boris will dump N. Ireland.

      Wait and see.

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  13. I see Johnson is shrugging at the idea of a hard border. That’s what I had assumed from day 1 that westminster would Do. There’s no obligation if you’ve walked away - let the EU put a border up. Big boost for NI trade as every man and dog sets up an address in Belfast to allow easy cross order shipments. ‘Sort of’ real border in the sea. Tell the DUP to suck it up. Never understood why that didn’t fly. Very thankful though.

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  14. Scottish Nat si pretend socialists shite on the Caley Springburn workers.

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  15. Time for the SNP to get behind a manifesto commitment to repealing the Act of Union if they get a majority at the next election. All this now-towing to Westminster and asking permission for a referendum is just servile nonsense (that's the polite version). As Craig Murray has pointed out, all countries in the British Empire have taken their independence with both hands - not asked politely for it.

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