Thursday, March 14, 2019

With 334 MPs voting against, the 'People's Vote' option now looks dead

Although the headline moment tonight was the wafer-thin defeat of the Benn amendment, which may once again increase the chances of a No Deal outcome, I'd have thought equally significant is the exact numbers on Sarah Wollaston's amendment calling for a 'People's Vote' - 85 in favour, 334 against.  Obviously the scale of the defeat was due to Labour whipping an abstention, and the argument is that Labour will swing behind a referendum at a more propitious moment.  But the snag is that the 334 MPs who actively voted against the amendment today, plus the two tellers on the No side, represent 51.7% of the entire House of Commons.  In other words, there appears to be a natural majority against a referendum regardless of whether Labour abstain or not.

It may be that a few Tory supporters of a referendum felt that they had been given 'permission' by the People's Vote campaign to vote against the amendment, and will change their vote next time around.  But even if such MPs exist, they'll probably be offset by some Labour opponents of a referendum who felt able to follow the whip today, but who will vote against if they feel there is any danger of a referendum being approved.  On the basis of today's numbers, I just can't see any way a People's Vote will be called - and that in turn removes any lingering doubt over whether Brexit will actually happen.

34 comments:

  1. Ordinarily I'd say yes what you say here makes a lot of sense, but there's nothing ordinary about what's going on in Parliament right now. It feels like there's still a lot of confusion out there about what MP's are going to coalesce around, driven in part by a government motion that still hasn't decided fully if it's seeking a short extension or a long extension. If we get into long extension territory - which is possible if May still can't get her deal through - then I still think we're looking ultimately at either a GE or a referendum, whichever the Tories fear less.

    But certainly moving that amendment today has definitely harmed not helped the second referendum idea.

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    1. The problem with the so called people's vote is who actually voted in the 2016 referendum. I seem to recall going to polling station with my mrs and voting. She voted remain however she is like most women do not like change and prefer Edison Screw to a bayonet cap when changing a bulb.

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    2. "I hate democracy! It encourages other people to have opinions! We need strong and stable leadership instead!
      Waaaaah!"

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    3. Swing low sweet chariot Groundskeeper Willie Clown.

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    4. Must be a blast being the Groundskeeper Willie Clown Mrs listening to someone rant eeyoo natsis all day everyday, bet all the other girlies are jealous as hell.

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    5. That's it she exists of course, coz obviously the clown is a catch.

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    6. That's it she exists of course.

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    7. Armjet PuffregardMarch 15, 2019 at 6:14 PM

      Lovely to see Cordelia mentioning her lady wife. LGB liberty, sisters!

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    8. Bob far the KurkurMarch 16, 2019 at 8:04 AM

      Thank you darling you were marvellous. Have a bouquet Hermione Gingild. You wee marvellous. Here darling have an iatcajem. Test

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    9. All that Domestos has rotted Cordelia's brain.
      It would be sad if it wasn't so funny.

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  2. So they have voted against
    a) May's deal,
    b) No deal,
    c) a people's vote

    I read something on eureferendum.com which suggests you can't bring the same motion to the HOC twice in the same session of parliament. That being the case then all these motions are dead.

    That leaves Revoke A50 or General Election.

    I can't see the EU extending now except for a GE. Tories aren't going to vote for Xmas and revoke is unthinkable so it's No deal on 29March as has been predicted for months and months.

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    1. and send in the SAS to Brussels to show the Nat si sympathisers what's what. HMG needs to act. Take them down.

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    2. Up your Glesga kilt. Good try tho, Mr Nickaless Drungeon

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    3. The boozy rage is even funnier when Cordelia starts screaming at itself.

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    4. Ref the speaker blocking MV3 yes you are correct that Erskin May says that the same motion can not be votes on twice in same session, but there are ways to get round this (they could tack it onto the EU Withdrawal act for example) so will not get stopped.

      Will it pass...nope. May will peel off the more 'moderate Brexiters, possibly even people like Mogg, maybe even the DUP but think there is a hardened core of Brexiters that will not vote for it come what May and they will not budge.

      Article 62 of the vienna Concention is not going to save the day for May, thats just another Unicorn. From What I can tell thats there for if you delair war on a country or if a country starts committing genocide or something and you want to break relationships with it becasue of that. From what everything Cox has said and done so far hes not going to trash his legal repuation just so that the vote can go the Governments way.

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    5. The Groundskeeper Willie Clown dancing round in his kilt frothing at the mouth ranging his deranged demented way eeyoo Jimmy mckjocko gibberish. Just too funny, swing low sweet chariot, coming forth to carry me home.

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    6. Toilet duck is powerful stuff it would seem. Consistently the most deranged comments this side of the Atlantic.

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    7. Cordelia is nothing if not consistent in its rages. The content shifts based on what might appease its masters.

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    8. Big Jimmy far the FifeMarch 15, 2019 at 6:16 PM

      Shut it, shut it, shut it, shut it, shut it, shut it, shut it, shut it.

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    9. Cordelia didn't like that at all. Obedient colonial subjects don't like being called out for doing their masters' bidding.

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    10. "Stop laughing at me! I'm only following orders like a good little colonial servant!
      Waaaah!"

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  3. Say eeyoo Jimmy Groundskeeper Willie Clown.

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  4. Rant away Groundskeeper Willie Clown, some video footage would add to the joy it is comic relief after all and there's nothing funnier than a demented ranging jock. Take the chariot.

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  5. All that is needed for Brexit not to happen is a significant delay and a General Election. Given Mays authority has all but disappeared and a long delay may be the last straw for the ERG, some of which have already indicated they may consider supporting a no confidence motion in the government an imminent GE can't be ruled out.

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  6. Predicting anything is a mugs game at the moment, everything is turbulent fluid and completely unprecedented. A people's vote is as likely as anything else particularly following a GE. If the Tory rebels had held their nerve they probably now would have every chance of ousting May but the security of tenure they afforded her by not waiting means backing an opposition motion may be their only chance if she digs her heels in and has enough support.

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  7. Was hoping EU would've been free after 29 March to give opinion on prospective Scottish EU membership.
    Might have a longer wait.
    However the clock is ticking.
    Every day that passes the UK looks less attractive to any sane person.
    Let's get on with building the kind of Scotland we can be proud of.
    Shake off the colonial mindset.
    The UK is outdated history. Let it go for all our sales.

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    1. Get a job you scrounging layabout nat si plug

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    2. Cordelia will learn the meaning of hard work when its Tory overlords send it into the fields this autumn in exchange for its pension.

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  8. Replies
    1. That's a poppy load of treacle. Zoom boom a good.

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    2. Here we go, folks; Cordelia's guttered already. State of it.

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  9. Just had fast and great A&E treatment for a knee injury.

    Thank god for the NHS and very glad I voted SNP.

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    1. Thanks to Cleement Atttleeee you will be able to crawl on yer knees to the EU.

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    2. "You're all ungrateful Nazis! I hate Europe! You should be crawling to Westminster, like me!
      Waaaaah!"

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