Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Tonight's votes mean that, one way or another, a moment of truth for the independence movement is arriving

On the narrowest of margins does history turn.  If the Spelman amendent had been defeated (and it would have taken just two MPs voting the other way for that to happen), the most likely outcome might well have been a No Deal Brexit, either on the scheduled date this month or after a very short last-ditch extension.  As it is, Theresa May has clearly shifted her ground and started to countenance the possibility of a longer extension.  She did it in her customary "nothing to do with me guv" sort of way, but the change is real - before tonight she was definitively ruling out an extension of more than a few weeks, while now she is accepting that it could be an unavoidable and unwelcome consequence of parliament's decisions.

Which seems to leave us with a binary choice between a) the Brexiteers being spooked by the threat of delay into voting for May's deal at the third time of asking, or b) an Article 50 extension of sufficient length that the UK would be forced into taking part in the European elections in two months' time.  (Admittedly the latter would cause such fury among Brexiteer MPs that the government might well be toppled.)  Either way, a moment of truth is coming for the independence movement - the passing of the deal would mean that the clarity Nicola Sturgeon has been awaiting would arrive imminently, at which point we could expect a decision about an independence referendum.  Or if the European elections are held in Scotland, the SNP would presumably use them to attempt to further reinforce their mandate for an indyref - with a good result being vitally important.

10 comments:

  1. Dont get the Gov motion, says extension till end of June, that would mean have to field candidates in EU elections?

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    1. No, the argument is that because the new European Parliament doesn't actually sit until early July, we wouldn't have to hold elections if Brexit happened on 30th June.

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    2. I see now. Thanks for explanation.

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  2. On another point is these have not resigned/been sacked by this time tomorrow:
    Rudd, Perry, Stephen Hammond, Buckland, Clark, Mundell, Ellwood, Gauke, Richard Harrington, Burt, James, Milton

    Then the Wips might as well pack up and go home, if you can abstain on a three line wip and still keep your job then discipline has gone. Could also mean that May is politely asked to go by the 'men in the grey suits', although she May well be saved by the fact the don't think anyone wants her job at the moment!

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  3. The British Westminster Parliament voted to leave the EU now they do not know how to leave. Maybe a General Election is needed to clarify what leave means. They will avoid a General Election as some will be eliminated from the gravy train.

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    1. That's the first semi-sensible thing you've said in your entire life.

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    2. You have not known me all my life young James and that is your loss, however I appreciate the compliment and wish you well.

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    3. .... "beware Greeks bearing gifts", James !!

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    4. Greeks are skint due to the EU Mafia.

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    5. "The EU are gangsters! You're all Nazis! I hate you all!
      Waaaaah!"

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