Tuesday, March 26, 2019

The SNP will be eyeing up Stirling to ensure a net gain from the Tories at the next election

Media coverage of support for independence in opinion polls often seems to be a case of 'heads I win, tails you lose', and you'd have to say that Jeremy Corbyn suffers the same problem at the hands of a hostile press at UK-wide level.  When the Tories have a big lead it's portrayed as a catastrophe for Corbyn, but when the race is closer to being even-stevens he doesn't get any credit for it - the story swiftly changes to "the opposition party should have a big lead at a time when the Tories are in such disarray".  Well, for what's it's worth, we're hearing the latter narrative at the moment, because after the Tories opened up what looked like a potentially decisive lead in the aftermath of the Independence Group breakaway, they've now been pegged back.  Take, for example, the latest Opinium poll...

Britain-wide voting intentions (Opinium):

Conservatives 36% (-2)
Labour 35% (+1)
UKIP 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
SNP 5% (n/c)
Greens 4% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (n/c)

Scottish subsample: SNP 46%, Conservatives 26%, Labour 17%, UKIP 6%, Liberal Democrats 4%, Greens 1%

It's not that Labour have really recovered from their post-breakaway slump, it's more that disgusted Brexiteer voters have turned away from the Tories (at least for the time being) and towards UKIP.  I suppose some would argue that once an election campaign is underway, the Tories would be able to squeeze the UKIP vote, but that's not necessarily a silver bullet, because there's a significant Green vote there for Labour to squeeze as well.

I said recently that the fallout from the Independent Group breakaway had left the SNP almost assured of victory in Scotland at the next Westminster election.  That's probably still correct, because Scottish Labour have too much of a deficit to realistically make up.  Nevertheless, if Labour start the election campaign within striking distance of the Tories at UK level, there would be more cause for concern for the SNP, because any momentum for Corbyn in England could bring Labour back into the game in Scotland.  We all remember what happened in 2017 - the swing from SNP to Tory was not a massive surprise and was factored into our expectations, but the real problem was the late swing from SNP to Labour, which nobody had really seen coming and was purely caused by momentum generated south of the border.

One thing that became clear in 2017 is that the post-election media narrative is driven mainly by the expectations game and by direction of travel.  You had otherwise sensible commentators portraying a landslide SNP victory as a "disaster for Sturgeon" simply because the SNP had lost seats and underperformed expectations.  That provides an opportunity this time around, though, because 39 or 40 seats would have to be reported as a good result, even though exactly the same outcome would have been considered a setback two years ago.  I think it's particularly important that the direction of travel is not just seen to be towards the SNP but also against the Scottish Tories, ie. the SNP need at least a small net gain of seats from the Tories and not just from Labour.  At a minimum that would mean regaining Stirling and holding onto Perth & North Perthshire.

I don't think these are questions for the distant future either - I'm coming round to the idea that there is a greater than even chance of an election this year.  Stephen Bush said yesterday that the Prime Minister's implied threat of an election to avoid a soft Brexit doesn't make sense because there isn't enough time to hold an election before the 12th April cliff-edge.  But what we know about Theresa May is that she wants her legacy to be the delivery of Brexit, and she won't regard continued customs union and/or single market membership as being a 'real' Brexit.  If an impractical option like an immediate general election is the only way of salvaging that legacy, I could imagine her doing it.  Another possibility is that the deal will pass, and that whoever is Prime Minister for the next phase of negotiations will feel that an election is unavoidable if we don't want deadlock further down the road.

22 comments:

  1. Why are MPs discussing the UK rejoining EFTA? EFTA members have made it pretty clear they won't let the UK join as it can't be trusted / is too much trouble.

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    1. Consideration of the other side in a "negotiation" never occurs to WM. They will do as telt. Arrogant MPs are still at this stage thinking they can go back to the EU with a new deal, when the EU has already indicated that May's deal is the only deal they will accept. The arrogance of British Nationalists is breathtaking.

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    2. Luggy Pluggy.

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  2. That subsample fits neatly with a run of them now showing the Labour vote falling off a cliff. Tories even seem to be edging down too.

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  3. Mays real problem, as mentioned in other thread is that shes now a passenger. Along as their is a majority in Parliament (which hopefully the indicative votes will achieve)anything except for revocation or a straight Leave/Remain can be amended to the meaningful vote.

    THe only way she can stop it from happening (as meantioned she has now powers to bypass Parliament through decrees /executive orders etc) is either not put the MV to a vote so can't been amended or not follow the amendment. For example if its amended to say the UK should negotiate being in the SM/CU and she said after the vote has passed, i'm not doing that. Both would lead to an vote of confidence which she would loose by a landslide and a GE and her legacy would be that she was the PM who tried to bypass Parliaments wishes.

    The only choice she to stop what will probably be a soft Brexit is force a GE.

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  4. UKIP could surge ahead once the Nat si intoxicated stick ra heid on ye welfare claiming Jocks realise UKIP are an all inclusive diverse political party.

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    1. Excuse me what? Some insult from someone who can not use a keyboard correctly.

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    2. The Groundskeeper Willie Clown has got his eeyoo stuck up his natsis again and Willie is raging.

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    3. Cordelia's Domestos-inspired gammony confusion there. Always good for a laugh.

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  5. The Labour vote crashing in Scotland since mid February is supported by this happening UK-wide.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1110668823244558337

    It looks like Corbyn's fairy dust has finally worn off; the last of his 2017 gain supporters now accepting he's a fraud and is part of Team Mogg-Bozo-Gove in wanting to drag Scotland out of the EU.

    If you want socialism outside of the EU, you'll never have that as part of the UK; England will ensure you get completely unregulated chlorine washed capitalism.

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    1. What do you actually mean by dragged out? eg:physically! I thought we had a UK referendum!

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    2. "Accept what your masters have handed down and stop being ungrateful! Only our masters are allowed to change their minds! You should all be good and obedient colonial servants like me!
      STOP LAUGHING AT ME!
      Waaaaah!"

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    3. Ok, 'dragged out of the single market and free movement zone'.

      We have not had a referendum on that, only to leave the EU 'like Norway and Switzerland' ((c) Leave).

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  6. There are just too many questions, is Randy salmond a rapist , is the Groundskeeper Willie Clown a natsi nutjob, is scotty poppers a virgin and does a bear shit in the woods.

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    1. Here's another question; are you high?

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    2. Another question: Is Cordelia still high from a busy night of substance abuse, or is she starting afresh? Another day another blister pack.

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    3. It can be difficult to tell. General rule of thumb; the less coherent it is, the higher the dosage.

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    4. Oh doctor it's my fault I've just pished myself laughing at the Nat si screachers. Bunch of gribblers standing at Gretna Green with they're hands out looking for us to give them an other load of money. Not wile I'm above grand, Colonel, not while I'm Nice grand.

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    5. Perfect illustration of Cordelia at high dosage, there.
      It's the incoherent rage that makes me laugh.

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    6. Just say No to Toilet Duck. You know it makes sense.

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    7. Everyone except poor Cordelia knows it makes sense.
      We've been telling it to seek help for years but all we get in return are screams of rage punctuated with bigotry and disgusting allegations.

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