Tuesday, March 12, 2019

65% of the Scottish public want a second independence referendum, says superlative Survation survey

For the second time in a few days I have to query the editorial priorities of the Herald in dealing with opinion polls - their take on the new Survation poll is "Nicola Sturgeon faces strong public opposition to Indyref 2", which is a tad odd, because the poll actually shows that 60% of respondents want a second independence referendum at some point, rising to 65% if Don't Knows are removed.  The only negative side of the poll for independence supporters is when respondents say the referendum should be held, with many saying it shouldn't be for at least five or ten years.  However, for my money that has a lot to do with the way the question is posed - it's a five-option question, which will lead strong supporters and opponents of a referendum to choose the option at either extreme, with everyone else likely to be drawn to an option somewhere in the middle to show their moderation.  And of course it was entirely at Survation's discretion to decide what "in the middle" would actually look like.  If you want a meaningful verdict on the referendum the SNP are proposing, you have to ask a more direct question - "do you support or oppose the SNP's call for an independence referendum once the terms of Brexit are known?"  We can only guess what the outcome would have been if Survation had posed that one.

On the voting intentions for Westminster and Holyrood, it's pretty much unalloyed good news for the SNP and the independence movement more generally.

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster:

SNP 40% (+1)
Conservatives 24% (-2)
Labour 23% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)

Like the recent Panelbase poll, the above figures represent a swing to the SNP from both the Tories and Labour since the June 2017 election, but the swings are bigger, and the SNP's own vote share is up on 2017 as well.  In the unlikely event of a totally uniform national swing, this would see the SNP win 46 seats (up 11), the Tories just 8 (down 5), the Lib Dems 4 (no change) and Labour 1 (down 6).

In a perverse way, Labour might think their 23% vote share is not too bad, because it's within their normal range for recent Survation polls, albeit at the lower end of it.  Panelbase, by contrast, had put Labour on a post-June 2017 low, which appeared to reflect the impact of the Independent Group breakaway.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 43% (+5)
Conservatives 24% (-2)
Labour 22% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 9% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 32% (n/c)
Conservatives 22% (-1)
Labour 19% (-4)
Greens 11% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+2)

Remarkably, the Scotland Votes predictor suggests that the pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament would slightly increase on these numbers - the SNP and Greens between them would have 70 seats, rather than the 69 they won in 2016 when the mandate for a second independence referendum was secured.  That once again gives the lie to Robin McAlpine's claim from a few weeks ago that all recent polls have suggested the pro-indy majority would be lost. In all honesty, though, Survation's methodology is making it very difficult to work out what would really happen, because it's been blindingly obvious for ages that the question wording they use for the list vote ("your second vote") is confusing respondents and producing distorted results - the SNP's vote share is likely to be a few points too low and the Greens' vote share is likely to be a few points too high.

32 comments:

  1. James, what's your take on Wings Over Scotland's latest Brexit / Panelbase poll showing majorities for independence?

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  2. Excellent analysis as ever, James.

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  3. why don't people just vote SNP on list? i don't want the long answer : i know it is right. I maen : why would you think of it? just vote straight SNP to send a clear message.

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    1. Broadly speaking, say party A wins 50 constituency seats, total number of party A's list votes is divided by 50. The system is designed to balance out party majorities. As explained to me before last Holyrood election by a French post-grad politics student working at Scottish Parliament
      She suggested that if you consider a pro- Indy majority most important, then vote largest pro-Indy party SNP in Constituency, and pro-Indy Green for list, as SNP list votes would be seriously weakened by their (assumed) success in the Constituency vote

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    2. Aye, all you need to know is the result of the constituency vote in your seat before you make your list vote, and you are laughing. If you have that, so know the snp have won it, you can potentially cheat the system to give more snp + green msps than their fair PR vote share, which would absolutely yeild a strong, internationally recognised democratic mandate.

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    3. I support the snp. If I can't be 100% sure they'll take the constituency (which I can't), then I'll give them my vote on the list as well to be sure. Otherwise, I risk my constituency vote being binned under fptp and me losing entirely my snp vote.

      If I was a green voter and knew my constituency candidate had no chance. Or there was no green candidate standing in the constituency, the snp might present the best option here, with green on the list... If I was pro indy.

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    4. Dont think you can use 'cheat' and demographic in the same sentence....

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    5. You can when it's sarcastic of course.

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    6. Keith: Your French student friend is at the very least partly wrong, and in fact I would just say she's wrong. Switching from SNP to Green on the list could have disastrous consequences, ie. it could REDUCE rather than increase the chances of a pro-indy majority, if the Greens fall below the de facto threshold for list representation in your region, as happened in six out of eight regions as recently as 2011. The list vote is the most important vote, so don't muck around with it - voters should give it to their first-choice party.

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    7. Oh, and also the "divide by 50" point is wrong - that would only happen if d'Hondt was applied nationally. It's done on a purely regional basis.

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  4. Very useful article again. Thanks.

    Completely off topic, but what was that fiasco in the London Parliament today? If I were British, I'd be embarrassed.

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  5. Under Holyrood AMS, your first constituency bvote is a good old British first past the post vote. This means most voted cast will be wasted / binned. Only if you were lucky enough to vote for the winning candidate will your vote count towards the make up of the Parliament.

    Now your second regional list vote is democratic PR. It should definitely be counted if you vote for a party with even a modicum of local support. So, it's really worth something.

    Worth remembering when it comes to voting for the party you really support as your first choice.

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  6. So, no deal, and tariffs are scrapped on absolutely everything. All you have to do is ship it in over the wide open N. Irish border.

    UK will never get a trade deal with anyone. Not if it tells even the WTO to fuck off from day one, completely trashing their rules. It must have a customs union with the Eu or put a hard border in place to comply with WTO.

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  7. I see Hammond is now reaching out to Corbyn with the offer of a grand English nationalist bexit coalition.

    Corbyn is going to need to accept this soon or he won't get his brexit.

    #bettertogether2

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  8. I see British democracy has spoken and the people, through their parliament, have solidly rejected a no deal brexit under any circumstances.

    No deal would now mean the UK isn't a democracy and Scotland would need to move to independence immediately.

    Convieniently, the UK has also set the precedent that 'unilateral declarations' are the in thing when it comes to indy from unions.

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  9. Yes but does this vote prevent the UK crashing out on the 29th? Not sure it does.

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    1. It is not a crash out just the law. Leave is better and no ties to the EU Mafia corruption. Some Scots who like their feudal ancestors do like to be dominated and tellt whit tae dae by their masters. It is a Scottish thing of being used to being tellt what is best for you.

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    2. "Some Scots who like their feudal ancestors do like to be dominated and tellt whit tae dae by their red and blue Tory masters." Fixed that for Cordelia; I'm sure that's what its latest rambling meant.

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    3. I forgot to include in my rambling the Yellow Nat si Tories.

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    4. Cordelia forgot to scream its usual predictable insults.
      That's what happens when you pickle your brain with Toilet Duck.

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    5. I got a doze of the fund so I couldn't reply. You aren't paying attention. Nat sis shitsvare it

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    6. Cordelia's incoherent reply merely reinforces the point I made about its bizarre tastes.

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    7. Nat si snob shit probably goes sking to places like France too

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    8. I think I made it cry.
      Still, nobody made Cordelia parade its wilful ignorance.

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  10. Sure it doesn't prevent it, but a no deal is now completely against the democratic will of the people.

    :-)

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    1. Cordelia there, sharing entirely too much about its personal habits.

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    2. You've got a face like Jeremy Thorpe's arse

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    3. "That's the best I can come up with in my boozy impotent rage! Pay attention to me!
      Waaaaaah!"

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  11. Naebody asked me my opinion! These polls seem tae be made up by interested parties who have an interest, no doubt financial.

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    1. "Naebody asked me my opinion! Why won't they pay attention to me?
      Waaaaaah!"

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    2. I've been in Dieppe. I've seen what firrinners do. Listen to me. ME.

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    3. "I hate foreigners! You're all Nazis! Yaxley-Lennon is a hero! Stop laughing and pay attention to ME! ME! ME!
      Waaaaaah!"

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