Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Is a general election getting closer or further away?

One thing that baffles me about this wave of Labour and Tory defections to the new Independent Group is that we're in a hung parliament situation, and yet journalists seem largely incurious about the elephant in the room - the potential implications for the date of the next general election.  I gather that the three Tory defectors were asked today how they would vote on a no confidence motion, but getting a clear answer out of them doesn't seem to have been anyone's priority.  Anna Soubry apparently said "the last thing people want is a general election", which echoes something that Chris Leslie said the other day almost as a casual aside.  That leads me to suspect the Independent Group is going to act as a "crossbench" rather than an "opposition" group, and abstain on no confidence votes.  And because there are still significantly more Labour defectors than Tory, that would push a general election further away, because it would give Theresa May a DUP-proof majority that she didn't have before.

That said, there are plenty of important votes other than no confidence motions, and if a shrunken Tory parliamentary party makes it increasingly difficult for Theresa May to get her routine business through the House, an early general election might become likely anyway.  There's also the possibility that the Independent Group are just looking for some time to get organised as an election-fighting machine, and at that point will magically become bullish about bringing the government down.

There's a paradox here for the Labour defectors: obviously they'll be pleased the group has grown today, but as a vehicle for destroying Corbynism, the group suddenly looks somewhat less effective than it did yesterday.  It can no longer be said that the split is caused by the uniquely awful problem of having Jeremy Corbyn as leader of a major party, and the sharing around of political pain between Labour and Tory will give Corbyn much-needed cover he didn't have before.  Now that the new group is no longer a "Labour moderates' retreat" but a mixed-DNA proto-party incorporating clear centre-right elements and apparently happy to prop up a Tory government for now, mainstream Labour MPs are going to find it harder to resist pressure from activists to attack their former colleagues and treat them as turncoats and ultimately as political opponents.

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For anyone worried about the outside chance of the SNP being overtaken as the third-largest group in the Commons, bear in mind that they have a close relationship with the four Plaid Cymru MPs, and it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that an agreement could be reached to form a joint group of 39 (probably in return for allowing Liz Saville Roberts to lead at PMQs every few weeks).  In fact I believe I'm right in saying that the SNP and Plaid used to form a joint group in the Commons, but that seems to have quietly fallen by the wayside at some point.

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Another classic Mike Smithson comedy moment today: he said that "four times as many" Tory MPs have now defected to the new group than defected to the SDP.  Which means he's claiming that 0.75 Tory MPs joined the SDP.  (In case you're wondering, there was one Tory MP defector to the SDP - Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler, who long after losing his seat in 1983 ended up joining Labour under Tony Blair.)

12 comments:

  1. I assume you have thoughts on the new Times/YouGov poll. It is remarkable. I wonder if it might influence the likelihood of an election.

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  2. My question is exactly what would be solved by a FPTP GE?

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    1. For one thing, it might increase the SNP contingent and generate some momentum towards an independence referendum.

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    2. I look forward to an independence referendum. If you lose will it be the old Nat si scenario, stupid Scots again young James?

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    3. Why would we do the old Tory routine? "Losing elections since 1955, so it must be the voters' fault."

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    4. Young James it is never the voters fault, however 'politicians' not accepting the result of the vote are treading on dangerous ground. That leaves any onerous group to say democracy is a farce. On a lighter note it was amusing to hear a Tory today calling other Tories right wing.

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    5. Cordelia doesn't approve of democracy unless it delivers what it wants.

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  3. Increased SNP contingent at WM ain't gonna do much though.
    Bring our MPs back to Scotland, do the right thing, say: cheerio UK we're finished with you now.

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    1. Your Mps are having the best time of their life in Sunny London a phone call to the best masseurs. They will oppose leaving Westminster.

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    2. More drunken lies from Cordelia.

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  4. One of the more obvious reasons why members of the Independent Group are not keen on an early General Election is that they would very likely lose their seats and the grouping disappear - the very same reason why they're not after causing bye-elections.

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    1. Sorry to draw attention to your typo, GeoffG, but it's a good one: for the new Independent Group Party, by-elections would indeed be bye-elections...

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